BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. 4 Corners a sadly wasted opportunity. Too many of the usual talking heads and as has been said, no mention of the environment !

  2. 2fer in the cricket.

    BW,

    Thanks to whomever raised the ‘-tard’ issue.

    I think I may have mis-used it in the past but will not do so in the future.

    Good man.

  3. Who’d have thought the Chinese would tell Bob Carr to be against Australian population growth? they probably see it as beneficial for resource and food exploitation that our population growth is restrained?

  4. Edwina StJohn

    Bob Carr makes me Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. His major achievement being enabling the continuation of the now 200 year reign of the Rum Corp.

  5. Who’d have thought the Chinese would tell Bob Carr to be against Australian population growth? they probably see it as beneficial for resource and food exploitation that our population growth is restrained?

    Gawd what a load of crap.

  6. Adrian
    Yes they are not covering some critical facts. We already spend the highest % of GDP on transport infrastructure (1.2%) in the OECD. Yet we spend it on toll roads that do not solve traffic congestion. Public transport would be cheaper and better for the environment. But freeway contractors, Macquarie and Transurban want more freeways. So we build them.

  7. **shellbell
    I used to be an ardent follower of test cricket. Not any more.**

    The real shame; it has created the climate for arseholes to sledge like that at all levels of the game – even juniors.

    Like a pinch of excrement stirred into an otherwise perfectly cooked creamy bowl of porridge – it takes all the beauty out of the game.

  8. Boerwar @ #2549 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 9:46 pm

    P1

    You routinely shift the goal posts. And then you routinely deflect when caught out in doing so.

    Yeah, right.

    So I have gone back to my original point.

    Which was wrong, as I pointed out. With examples, and expert opinions.

    I have demonstrated examples where agricultural production relies solely on non organic inputs combined with the genes in crop plants. I could add an almost infinite number of existing further examples.

    Please demonstrate why agricultural production necessarily depends on biodiversity.

    I have. You apparently just don’t understand it. I’m really very sorry about that.

  9. SK

    The sledging is out of hand.

    Michael Holding, in commentary on this test, suggested the answer is simple.

    First time something personal is said a warning. Second time off the ground for the balance of the match.

    Having to bat and field a man down will solve it he reckons.

    But we know administrators won’t have the guts.

    And I bet nobody ever sledged the man they called Whispering Death.

  10. Adrian
    “4 Corners a sadly wasted opportunity. Too many of the usual talking heads and as has been said, no mention of the environment !’

    4 Corners hinted at the real problem … generations of abysmal planning
    The problem isn’t the environment it’s density .

    The historic area of Barcelona has a similar population to greater Sydney, in a quarter of the area.
    By European standards Sydney & Melbourne hardly rate as urban centres .
    Increase the density & you reduce impact on the environment, the great Australian dream is to destroy the environment , hopefully the younger generation will save it as they move closer to the centres of Sydney & Melbourne

  11. **And I bet nobody ever sledged the man they called Whispering Death.**
    I do remember a Victorian telling Curtly Ambrose to take his wristbands off.

  12. Bob Carr makes a good point to counter the Barnaby/Littleproud Decentralisation rubbish. Water. Most of the places where these Nationals want to decentralise departments to will struggle with the next big drought to supply water to their residents. And the Irrigators and Farmers won’t want to give up their water allocations to larger local populations lightly. ‘Resources’, as Tim Flannery says. There aren’t many, ‘out there’.

  13. Question,
    Snap! I nearly fell off my seat! I imagine Mr Turnbull will be making one of his irate calls to ABC management right about now.

  14. Turnbull on 7.30 boasts of creating $1M new jobs.

    Over what period?

    How many of those jobs were created by the 200K per year migrants, many of whom are “skilled” (monied?) migrants.

  15. High levels of skilled migration both regular and via temporary visas is piracy against developing countries. And lazy from Australian planners and pollies.

  16. As an urban planner I’d like to point out we would like to get on with planning our cities better without the lobbyists, developers, pollies and spivs that fuck up our plans left right and centre.

  17. Meanwhile, the great unravelling of the Trump clan continues

    ‘ WASHINGTON — Qatari officials gathered evidence of what they claim is illicit influence by the United Arab Emirates on Jared Kushner and other Trump associates, including details of secret meetings, but decided not to give the information to Special Counsel Robert Mueller for fear of harming relations with the Trump administration, say three sources familiar with the Qatari discussions.‘

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/qataris-opted-not-give-info-kushner-secret-meetings-mueller-n855326?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

  18. In both cases an inept, government bereft of ideas has been behind in the polls for over a year. Nothing the incumbents could, or can do is going to change people’s perceptions that a change is needed.

    In the polls the predicted result was a lot closer than the actual result. In fact it was a massacre. I believe that this type of result will be replicated at the next federal election.

    Pretty much my reading. These dopes need an outside miracle. Anything they actually do will only make it worse for them. The less they actually try to win the next election and instead just get on with trying for once in their miserable existence to actually just be an almost competent government the less bad the loss will be for them. But they’ll try more stupid stuff the more desperate they get, and so the worse it will end up for them.

  19. You can understand why Andrew Barr came to the conclusion that he hated MSM journalists when you see the fix being put in to prop up Malcolm Turnbull by the likes of Leigh Sales, Phil Coorey and the rest of that scabrous bunch.

  20. Yeah. More stupid stuff.

    Like Corporate Tax Cuts.

    Bringing back the zombie measures that the previous Senate chucked back in their stupid faces.

    Not acknowledging that the people they think are the rubes that will be like turkeys voting for christmas and will vote for the Coalition at the next election, have actually figured out the difference between a job, and a job that pays you well enough for you and the family you want to have in the future, or have now, to live a comfortable life on.

    And no amount of hokey election advertising by the vested interests concerned with pulling the wool over our eyes will change that perception abroad in the electorate and baked into our overextended, overworked, sleep-deprived minds.

  21. From today’s Crikey: what goes up must come down, esp if it lacks appropriate ballast and is nothing more than hot frivolous air.

    As Australia’s diplomats traipse back home this week for meetings with our Southeast Asian neighbours on business and counter-terrorism at the weekend’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Sydney, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop must we wondering — in what’s meant to be a moment of some triumph — how it has all gone so wrong for her.

    It was less than a year ago that Bishop was widely seen as the only person in parliament capable of taking the reins from Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister amid open criticism of him from within the Liberal Party.

    Now the talk in Liberal Party circles is of Bishop being “retired” after the next election, perhaps to make way for Mathias Cormann, the government’s most consistently good performer, and moving to the lower house. Whether that’s possible or not, it’s certainly true that she has been frozen out of the PM’s inner circle.

    Liberal Party insiders have told Crikey that there are two main reasons for this: she is “poison with the right wing of the party”, who will not forgive her for switching her support from Tony Abbott to Turnbull in 2015. And as Turnbull has continued to embrace the right, Bishop has become a casualty.

  22. Don’t cry too many tears for Andrew Barr and his crew of shifty incompetents. If ever a government required severe culling it is his. Sadly its “opposition” is made up of witch burners and christian variants of ISIS with no real idea or probably even intentions for actual government.

  23. sprocket,
    I sit here in Australia, patiently waiting for the self-satisfied smirk to be wiped off Donald Trump’s face. It will then evaporate from the rest of the grifter’s faces about a minute later when the realisation sets in that nothing can save them now. 🙂

  24. ‘Fess,
    I guess those leaks about Foreign Minister Barbie’s’ travelling companion’s expenses had to come from somewhere in government, and Malcolm Turnbull is not loathe to use them, even against those who have supported him solidly in the past to their own cost. That’s just the kind of ruthless scumbag Malcolm Turnbull is.

  25. One of the amazements of the population debate on ABC tonight is that no-one mentioned countries which have more or less stable populations which include Japan and a fair bit of Europe. Any rational consideration of aging populations and population needs to understand what the “steady state” population scenario looks like.

  26. A significant chunk of skilled migration is causing brain drain in many poorer countries but there are some poorer countries (such as the Philippines) that train a surplus of certain professions (nurses, etc) for emigration.

  27. C@t:

    I read it more like those infamous Big Swinging Dicks from back in the day were once again hunting down JBishop.

    You can only be a ‘loyal girl’ for so long in the Liberal party it would seem.

  28. Confessions @ #2592 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 11:22 pm

    C@t:

    I read it more like those infamous Big Swinging Dicks from back in the day were once again hunting down JBishop.

    You can only be a ‘loyal girl’ for so long in the Liberal party it would seem.

    I would have thought that Malcolm Turnbull was the biggest BSD around! A legend in his own jocks! 🙂

    Also interesting to note is that the other ‘girl’ from WA, Michaelia Cash, is being stoutly defended by one and all in the Coalition.

  29. I thought the QnA panel was not too bad – better than 4C – just too many demographers and people talking about better planning to cope with the bigger population. Tony Jones starting QnA saying that Australia will be 40m by 2050 and the issue was how to deal with it was bizarre. Saying that will be the result if current policies continue is an entirely different matter.

    And saying we don’t have a population policy and debate is not right – every year there is a figure in the Comm budget for standard migration, currently 190,000, plus for refugees. And policies in places which allow about 100,000 people on temporary visas to become permanent. That is the current population policy. But not much informed debate about what it all means.

  30. I usually scroll past Rundle in the Crikey email, but his effort today had me wondering…

    The Greens were hit with a fresh “leak” in Batman at the end of last week, with accusations in the ABC — denied by the Greens, and lacking documentation — that Batman candidate Alex Bhathal had been investigated for improper conduct five years ago. Greens leader Richard Di Natale has denied this, and openly stated that there is a force within the Darebin Greens who would rather see the Greens miss out than have Alex Bhathal bumped into parliament.

    What’s frustrating for many in the Victorian Greens is that everyone knows who the leaker — or the principal leaker — is. They’re a Darebin branch member with long experience in the Greens, they have contacts in the mainstream media, and they know how to drip-feed stories to maximise a news cycle. The Greens should expect another bombshell to be leaked on Wednesday night for the Thursday media cycle, the usual final drop, made so late, that a rebuttal is impossible.

    The leaker has loathed Bhathal personally for some years; but they have also played a role as a mentor to a number of young people joining the Darebin branch, especially those lacking any sort of left-right political understanding of earlier eras.

  31. C@t:

    As you say, what they did was illegal, but I’d bet London to a brick they won’t show their face because of the embarrassment the immaturity of defacing a woman political candidate’s corflute signals to the Greens base.

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