BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

  2. A Neutral UK would have made it much easier for the Germans to fight the Russians. It would have been much easier for them to import raw materials, and they would not have been fighting on 2 fronts. There would also have been no British Empire help for the Russians and possible the Americans.

  3. All that would have meant Tom is that more German blood would have stained the soil in mother Russia until the deed was done. Also even more Soviet blood, but Russians have long been used to measuring death and misery in the tens of millions …

  4. ‘The terms Hitler offered England would have seen none of the things you speculate happen. ‘

    Hitler never offered ‘terms’ or anything else. The period leading up to the Battle of Britain is pretty well documented and while there was a Cabinet debate raging on whether soundings should be made with the Germans on terms (supported by Halifax and opposed by Churchill), no such soundings were made (Churchill carried the day), let alone receiving or considering a peace offer from Hitler.

  5. A-E
    Not separate as the fate of the British, French and Dutch empires – all left exposed to Japan – demonstrated.

  7. bemused @ #2491 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 8:01 pm

    Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #2471 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    Stop pretending that ‘tard’ tacked onto the name of something, as in Libtard, Greentard, Labtard etc is not a combination of Name + retard!

    Posting words like leotard or bastard which are words in their own right, not slang for ‘retarded libs/greens/etc’ is no defence.

    Greentard is shorthand for retarded Green. Retard is a label which is hurtful and nasty. Its common use was by schoolyard bullies and ignorant adults.

    Stop using it and do not ever post it here. I am offended on behalf of the people I assist and embarrassed to find it here when we all should have learned better from NDIS discussions.

    I dislike the use of these “+tard” words because they denigrate people with developmental delay and/or intellectual disability, a most vulnerable social group, and I want this to stop.

    You are flouting William’s request and you are wrong.

    bemused, you are flouting William’s request, and, in my opinion Puff is absolutely correct. ‘Retard’ was used by bullies during my school years, and every time I hear or see a neologism with the ‘tard suffix, that is what comes to my mind. But perhaps this is just the result of being NNE of somewhere?!

  8. Oh B-W – don’t conflate the issues: I was talking about the decision that Britain faced in June 1940. Not what happened after December 1941.

    However, if we are to factor that issue into a spot of ‘risk management’ then it made even more sense to make terms with Germany and divert all those resources (50% of GNP at the start of the war) into fleet aircraft carriers and marine expeditionary units to protect British assets in the Far East.

  9. In my opinion, the next Federal election will most likely be held on Saturday May 18, 2019, given that an election for half the Senate must be held on or before this date. The NSW election on March 23 (and maybe Easter on Sunday April 21) will muck up plans for a March or April election.

    It will follow: massive disinformation campaigns by vested interests, including the Murdochracy, in support of the Government; full revelations of whatever the Coalition-Newscorp dirt units have on Labor; and an early giveaway Budget. Indeed, if you’re in a demographic that includes swinging voters, Turnbull and Morrison will be leaping out of the bushes stuffing money into your pockets. Deficit? What deficit?

    The election result is no foregone conclusion.

    All true.

    May 18 is most likely because Trumble or whoever will simply be desperately hanging out for a Tampa or 9/11 or something to come along to save them.

    The amount of shit thrown will be at least as much as has ever been thrown. Trumble will probably chuck another couple of mil at it. No expense is too much for his ego.

    And no the result isn’t certain. Nothing is.

    But it is as near as damn certain. It would be miraculous for these imbeciles to recover. For the simple reason they truly are imbeciles. Corporate tax cuts FFS? If you were in the political shit these dopes are in and have half a brain in your head you don’t bet the house on corporate tax cuts. Yes they’ll try and bribe their way back next year with an early budget straight into the campaign. No one who has turned off them and given up on Trumble as a fraud is going to fall for that.

    This pack of arseholes’ salvation isn’t in their own hands. Only a black swan can save em. But that won’t stop them trying to engineer (jerry-rig) a silver bullet strategy. As with everything else the dopes try it will just rebound on them because they are utterly incompetent and the idea of just doing good government would never occur to them. They’ll go for the Hail Mary, the miracle play. And whatever they do try will be half baked and turn to shit.

    It’s what they do.

    Circumstances and/or a massive Labor fuck up could see them steal another utterly undeserved term. But even just slightly unfavourable chance for the ALP and not too much less unity and competence than they have displayed so far since 2013 will see Shorten PM NLT May 2019.

  10. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, March 12, 2018 at 8:44 pm

    Oh B-W – don’t conflate the issues: I was talking about the decision that Britain faced in June 1940. Not what happened after December 1941. ‘

    I understand what you are trying to do but I disagree with it. Churchill would not have made the distinctions that you are making.

  11. Steve777 says:
    Monday, March 12, 2018 at 8:29 pm
    The election result is no foregone conclusion.

    It’s not a forgone conclusion in the same way nothing is. The L-NP spend much of the time shooting their feet and their bag of tricks are stale. The ALP are objectively favourites.

  14. France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen put forward a new name for her National Front party on Sunday, hoping to reinvigorate the party and bolster its electoral chances following its setbacks in last year’s presidential and legislative races.

    Ms. Le Pen said party officials had agreed on Rassemblement National, which can be translated as National Rally or National Gathering, as the new name. It must still be approved by a mail vote of all party members in the coming weeks.

    “The name National Front bears an epic and glorious history that no one must deny,” Ms. Le Pen told a cheering crowd at the end of the party’s annual congress in Lille. But she also said that for many in France the name was “a psychological brake” that kept them from joining the party or voting for its candidates.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/11/world/europe/national-front-france.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

    Has it not occurred to her that people aren’t voting for her party because they don’t like its policies or stance on particular issues?

    You can put lipstick on a pig, but at the end of the day it’s still a pig.

  17. A-E
    Indeed. Churchill would have framed Europe in terms of the global empire.
    Oh, and you are right. Churchill was a plonker.

  18. Umm. Hiding our immigration rate behind boat people looks like it might be coming unstuck.

    My own view; a high level of immigration is more important than the defense budget; but doing it behind demonizing boat people was always going to come unstuck.

    Abbott the feral immigrant is now talking. Talking about the feral immigrant.

    Turnbull- Goldman Sachs spiv
    Dutton- Queensland Plod
    Bishop- WA socialite
    Morrison- Hillsong singer.
    They really are a sorry lot.

    Boerwar (AnonBlock)
    Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 8:41 pm
    Comment #2506
    4cnrs doing an interesting discussion on a Big Australia.

  19. You can put lipstick on a pig, but at the end of the day it’s still a pig.

    But maybe enough punters will believe it’s … I don’t know… a movie star or a society matron – and vote for it.

  20. Immigration is lazy economic growth. I’d like to see how much of our recent economic growth is actually linked to migration.

  21. The ALP are objectively favourites.

    Yes they are, but they should be further ahead. It’s not unusual for Governments to be on the nose mid-term, even good or competent ones. 53-47 is an eminently recoverable position, given the advantages of incumbency.

    And Rex, if you’re around, no, replacing the leader isn’t the answer.

  22. 4corners managed to avoid talking about the environment for the whole discussion about a Big Australia.
    Effin hopeless.

  23. Bemused

    I wrote it before I read Bilbo’s much appreciated directive.
    And I am not wrong.

    bemused says:
    Monday, March 12, 2018 at 8:01 pm
    Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #2471 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    Stop pretending that ‘tard’ tacked onto the name of something, as in Libtard, Greentard, Labtard etc is not a combination of Name + retard!

    Posting words like leotard or bastard which are words in their own right, not slang for ‘retarded libs/greens/etc’ is no defence.

    Greentard is shorthand for retarded Green. Retard is a label which is hurtful and nasty. Its common use was by schoolyard bullies and ignorant adults.

    Stop using it and do not ever post it here. I am offended on behalf of the people I assist and embarrassed to find it here when we all should have learned better from NDIS discussions.

    I dislike the use of these “+tard” words because they denigrate people with developmental delay and/or intellectual disability, a most vulnerable social group, and I want this to stop.
    ——————–
    You are flouting William’s request and you are wrong.

  24. But maybe enough punters will believe it’s … I don’t know… a movie star or a society matron – and vote for it.

    Maybe. Esp with a charismatic party leader.

  25. Boerwar

    I take it “they” does not encompass the ‘Monkey Pod’ demographic 🙂
    .
    Oh and if 4C avoided the effect of “Big Australia” on the environment then the can GFT. Pricks.

  26. Boerwar:

    What? How does discussion of population growth NOT be situated in an environmental context?!

    Hopeless.

  27. Watching the traffic jams on 4C my mind is screaming what about the NBN? What about satellite cities with up to date communications?

  28. Boerwar
    If they did not mention the environment, then I am giving 4c a miss.
    I am in South Australia. The first thing they can explain is where all the bloody water is too come from.

  29. ratsak, question, others

    I realise that one should never be complacent however I can’t help but draw parallels between the next federal election and the last WA state election.

    In both cases an inept, government bereft of ideas has been behind in the polls for over a year. Nothing the incumbents could, or can do is going to change people’s perceptions that a change is needed.

    In the polls the predicted result was a lot closer than the actual result. In fact it was a massacre. I believe that this type of result will be replicated at the next federal election.

    Obviously I reserve the right to change that prediction between then and now, however I believe that I will proved to be right.

  33. UK Murdoch outlet the Sunday Times has been compiling Kompramat on political leaders from all parties. Who do these #RupertRooters think they are?

  36. Watching MediaWatch. The H Scum was selectively taking supplied texts out of context and aligning with holiday snaps off Facebook of female councillor allegedly harassed by Robert Doyle.

    Victim blaming using doctored information. What low life.

  37. Agree Dan,

    Steve would have had a point about polling back in the days they fluctuated wildly. The don’t anymore. 53-47 is looking very rusty, and happens to be the margin the ALP get when they do well in actual elections.

  38. Thanks to whomever raised the ‘-tard’ issue.

    I think I may have mis-used it in the past but will not do so in the future.

  41. A complete shambles and vile to boot.

    It is certain that Lehmann and Sutherland will fail to show any leadership

    In the first over of the day, Marsh was comprehensively bowled by a ball that sliced between his bat and pad, and, as Rabada ran past in celebration, the Australian was seen mouthing the words “f*** you c***” while turning his head towards the bowler.

  46. So 30% of Qanda’s audience tonight is from Parramatta or Camden/Wilton (S W Sydney). Its like a marginal electorate talk night in an election.

  47. Boerwar @ #2477 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 7:25 pm

    Oh dear.

    P1 is busy doing what P1 does best: shift and/or confuse the goal posts.

    Why do people always claim this when they are losing an argument?

    Let’s go back to taws and to my original contention. I have pushed the boundaries a bit to help P1 and other dreamers to understand what is happening in the real agricultural world.

    You have been proven to be wrong, is what has actually happened. And the rest of your post is just a pathetic attempt to justify your ridiculous proposition that a loss of biodiversity in our ecology is somehow a good thing.

    Sorry, it just isn’t true. Monocultures are disasters waiting to happen.

  49. P1

    You routinely shift the goal posts. And then you routinely deflect when caught out in doing so.

    So I have gone back to my original point.

    I have demonstrated examples where agricultural production relies solely on non organic inputs combined with the genes in crop plants. I could add an almost infinite number of existing further examples.

    Please demonstrate why agricultural production necessarily depends on biodiversity.

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