Tasmanian election late counting

Progress at last as Tasmania waits on the exact size of the Liberal majority, and what remains to the Greens.

The Tasmanian election count is proceeding in an unusual fashion, with the results updated only yesterday for the first time since election night. This thread will be progressively updated to follow the progress of the late count. No breakdowns are provided of the results by vote type, but yesterday’s updates included the small changes that arise from rechecking, together with the more substantial addition of postal and absent votes to the count. They have not fundamentally changed the overall picture, which is that the Greens and a third Liberal are fighting over the last seat in Franklin; the Greens and a second Labor candidate are fighting over the last seat in Bass, with the latter looking the more likely; Braddon and Lyons are both three Liberal and two Labor, and Denison is two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens, but in each case there are elements of uncertainty about intra-party contests.

Of these there were at least 6000 in Franklin, which make next to no difference to the status of the count there, in which Rosalie Woodruff of the Greens fights off the third Liberal, Nic Street. In the other clearly contested race, Bass, there were only around 3600 votes added, which have been helpful to Andrea Dawkins in her fight against Jennifer Houston, who still appears somewhat likely to win a second seat for Labor. However, the change isn’t too radical: the total Labor vote is down from 26.5% to 26.4%, while the Greens is up from 9.1% to 9.2%.

The biggest infusion of new votes, around 8400, is from Denison, where the party result of Liberal two, Labor two and Greens one is not in doubt. However, Ella Haddad’s total vote share has softened from 8.2% to 7.9%, while embattled incumbent Madeleine Ogilvie has held firm on 6.6%, slightly increasing the latter’s chance of retaining her seat. Only around 2600 new votes have been added in Braddon, and they have little impact on Roger Jeansch’s lead over Joan Rylah in the race for the third Liberal seat, which is the only outstanding issue there. A substantial 7700 votes have been added in Lyons, which have slightly narrowed Lambert’s lead over Butler in the race for the second Labor seat, which was 2.63% to 2.33% on election night, and is now 2.59% to 2.36%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

19 comments on “Tasmanian election late counting”

  1. I have this problem often. I am thinking of putting a Gremlin Report Form on the sidebar. I always tell people “hey, I only write this stuff, do you really think that I have time to edit it?”

    I’m getting lots of data through from a scrutineer in Lyons. The biggest threat to Lambert seems to be that Green preferences could flow to Butler though the evidence for this is not conclusive yet.

  2. Something weird happened with the Denison figures up on Wednesday. The % counted was too high and they have now gone back to something more realistic (meaning Haddad recovers the lead she had over Ogilvie.)

  3. William / Kevin…

    Would anything more than a trickle of further votes be expected at this stage?

    Assuming that the ten day post election day period for the return of votes ends as of COB this coming Tuesday, are final results likely to be announced by COB Wednesday, or is it likely to take longer?

    If the ALP has, and has had, a problem of leakage in Bass, why is the issue particular to Bass, and other than better targeted candidate selection, what could they (ALP) do to mitigate the issue?

  4. I’d expect it to be about Thursday, maybe Friday, before we know everything. The preference distributions are manual. The votes remaining are probably worth about 1% or so.

    Often Labor’s leakage problems in Bass have just come from candidates not being quite high profile enough but I think there’s more to it than that. More advertising featuring the whole team together is one possible remedy.

  5. not a great deal of movement early on, Libs lost a bit in franklin (0.07 Quota) on distribution of Hodgman surplus, bit more than most were expecting perhaps?

  6. Greens have lost 0.02 quota after exclusion of 3 of their candidates Labor and Shooters the beneficiary libs didn’t gain much, will be interesting to see how many come back to the greens ticket. Duffy from Libs next excluded, will be interesting to see leakage on his.

  7. I’m continually updating my comments in the posts mentioned in #2.

    I’ve just added a graph for Denison – it shows that Haddad did well relative to Ogilvie at booths where Cox polled his higher vote shares on the whole. (Not a very strong relationship but 30% of variation explained.) If that holds up Haddad should be OK on his preferences.

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