BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. Guytaut

    The Westgate distributor road has nothing to do with being Labor. As I said, if you know anything about that part of town, you would know that the road is needed. End of story.

  2. JuliaGillard: Great to speak on #IWD2018 as Chair of @beyondblue for @thewomens. 1 in 5 Australian women experience depression and 1 in 3 have anxiety in their lifetimes. Let’s #pushforprogress in improving mental health this International Women’s Day #IWD2018 bb.org.au.

  3. Victoria @ #42 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 8:57 am

    GG

    Nah. My view on the drug problem and crime is reflected in what has happened and is happening in the community at the present time.
    Drug affected crime sprees are upsetting people, and Andrews needs to address it. You may think it is not a big problem, but it is one that is resonating with the community.
    It is not just crime against people, but traffic dramas. If you are out on the road around town, you will observe those under the influence causing traffic mayhem. Just a few weeks ago, some guy crashed into a pedestrian crossing in the south east. Luckily only one person was seriously injured, the rest were minor injuries. The guy was off his head.

    Alternatively, the over the top reaction of the Feds regarding the crime/drugs issue has been comprehensively derided by the community.

    Remember Dutton and Turnbull’s ridiculous scare campaign and rhetoric earlier this year.

    People aren’t scared to go out at night. The GDP figures that came out earlier this week actually show that the hospitality industry growth year on year is about 5%. Victorians are eating themselves to financial prospserity.

    So, I accept the there are concerns about crime/drugs and people are demanding these problems are addressed effectively. However, simplistic solutions, mindless rhetoric and contrived anger by the Blue/Greens are actually being seen for the twaddle they are atm. The electorate knows bulldust when they hear , see and smell it!

  4. Trump didn’t want #StormyDaniels’ silence about havin’ sex. He didn’t want it to get out he actually paid a vendor.

    Exactly!

  5. Victoria

    The LNP in NSW keep telling us road are the solution. Yet we know they build roads that end with new bottlenecks and you build roads you get more cars.

    If the problem is congestion of roads the solution is to do more public transport. Always every time.

    From comments bemused has made the Victorian transport system could be improved big time by having duplication. Just as he has argued for removing level crossings as a good idea from the Sydney example.

    Its also environmentally better to reduce cars going into the city in the first place.
    Sydney has gone to the extent of taking out major street of George Street and putting Trams in.
    Its fantastic. Thats the whole of George Street not just part of it.

    Its the first the car is not king transport solution in Sydney. Thats the thinking that has to dominate.

    We will always have cars but we need to follow the good example of the Scandinavian countries to reduce car use in our cities. We have been following the American car is king culture too long.

  6. @ BK – I think it’s fair to say the Greens have been very consistent with their opposition to all privately owned toll roads, on the basis that every word in that phrase is anathema to Greens’ core policy desires.

    The Greens oppose private ownership of pretty much all infrastructure of that sort. Road, rail, ports, electricity, telephone/internet etc.

    The Greens are consistent in wishing to ensure that those on low incomes are protected (and toll roads are actively regressive in that poor people tend to live in areas where they are forced to use toll roads (i.e. the outer suburbs), while rich people do not have to. It hits the less well off more than the well off, both in $ and % of income terms.

    The Greens also are consistent in preferring rail over road whereever possible. A situation I can see continuing at least until 100% of cars are electric, and potentially still past that due to their ‘mass transit’ nature.

    So, argue that the road is a better policy position than the same $ spent on rail if you want (I don’t know enough about the situation to have an opinion so won’t be arguing either way), but it really is poppycock to describe this as “opportunistic gesture politics”.

    This is the Greens’ policy position. Labor would have seen it coming, because everyone knows the Greens oppose tollroads. Labor should have privately and preemptively sought a deal with the Greens to convince them not to vote against it.

    Daniel Andrews screwed up here (something I have never said about anything he’s done previously), and put himself in an embarrassing situation. His error is not the Greens’ fault.

  7. This fits with what i see & read about Trump:
    Life is nothing but a dog-eat-dog game. The only value is being top dog. Winning is its own reward and the only reward. The power you gain by winning isn’t for anything else. Winners play the game undistracted by other values. All other supposed values are just means to that end. Duping others into thinking you care about other values, like welfare or making America great again, is how you play to win. Losers lose because they’re distracted by other values. To win, you need to use other people’s values against them. Other values are the loser’s handicap. You can get them to help you win by convincing them that you care about what they care about.
    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/psychological-condition-really-explains-donald-trumps-twisted-worldview/

  8. srpeatling: Lol lol lol. @SenatorWong went on 2DAY FM in Sydney and was called “Your Majesty” and “Wongster” by @EmRusciano.

    Rusciano wanted to know why Sen. Wong wasn’t “dancing on a podium covered in glitter when Cher came on”.
    Sen. Wong: “Me covered in glitter? That would be a sight eh?”

  9. BludgerTrack looks good to me- the gentle undulation about a 53/47 TPP is OK for now and if we get a slight uptick leading to the 30th NewsPoll then all the better to keep Malcolm with that itchy feeling between the shoulder blades.

  10. Voice Endeavour @ #57 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 9:20 am

    @ BK – I think it’s fair to say the Greens have been very consistent with their opposition to all privately owned toll roads, on the basis that every word in that phrase is anathema to Greens’ core policy desires.

    The Greens oppose private ownership of pretty much all infrastructure of that sort. Road, rail, ports, electricity, telephone/internet etc.

    The Greens are consistent in wishing to ensure that those on low incomes are protected (and toll roads are actively regressive in that poor people tend to live in areas where they are forced to use toll roads (i.e. the outer suburbs), while rich people do not have to. It hits the less well off more than the well off, both in $ and % of income terms.

    The Greens also are consistent in preferring rail over road whereever possible. A situation I can see continuing at least until 100% of cars are electric, and potentially still past that due to their ‘mass transit’ nature.

    So, argue that the road is a better policy position than the same $ spent on rail if you want (I don’t know enough about the situation to have an opinion so won’t be arguing either way), but it really is poppycock to describe this as “opportunistic gesture politics”.

    This is the Greens’ policy position. Labor would have seen it coming, because everyone knows the Greens oppose tollroads. Labor should have privately and preemptively sought a deal with the Greens to convince them not to vote against it.

    Daniel Andrews screwed up here (something I have never said about anything he’s done previously), and put himself in an embarrassing situation. His error is not the Greens’ fault.

    The Greens have the perfect right to be wrong on any issue of their choosing.

    However, being seen as the negative harpies of politics is the sort of approach that will see Andrews returned with an increased majority.

    I expect that come the 18th of March the Greens and their Liberal allies will start to focus on the existentialist threat that their current approach to stalling important infrastructure projects will have on their vote.

  11. ‘African gangs’, whatever did happen to them? Only two months ago Melbourne was in the grip of terror to the extent that people were afraid to go to restaurants at night because of them. Now, nothing.

    They seem to have been a 9 day wonder* to fill a quiet period in the New Year. Perhaps they were so scared of Peter Dutton’s and Malcolm Turnbull’s ‘tough’ talking that they gave up gang life and became model citizens.

    Maybe they’ll resurface around the time of the Victorian election later this year.

    * actually not that long

  12. Dan G:

    I haven’t seen that site before. Thanks for that, looks like a repository of all things Russia investigation. I like that they have included the Congress investigations too, not just the Special Counsel’s.

  13. GG

    I see you are doing a defend Labor not look at the policy defence.

    Rings hollow to me.

    Toll Roads are a very very bad idea. Only benefits vested interests. Victoria Labor could avoid the Sydney mistake and go straight for a congestion tax and have the LNP and Inner City Greens squealing at having to pay instead of their loyal voters in the West.

  14. guytaur says:
    Thursday, March 8, 2018 at 8:58 am
    Briefly

    Labor works with the Liberals all the time.

    That hare does not run

    Bollocks. You’ve obviously forgotten Abbott’s mantra: “Nope. Nope. Nope.” The LNP say no to anything substantive proposed by Labor, and the Alt-Tories chime in when they can see an opportunity to wedge Labor supporters. This is the 3-way dynamic. Labor have to contend with Tories on both flanks.

  15. The ‘African gangs’ and ‘islamic terrorists’ will surely merge into one huge threat to civilisation just before the Victorian election. Turnbull, Dutton and Murdoch media will make sure it happens.

  16. Sky News Australia
    40 mins ·
    Wildlife conservationist Bindi Irwin has joined a list of high-profile women transformed into a Barbie doll to mark International Women’s Day. #IWD2018

    Jeez. Lucky Bindi. 😮

  17. guytaur

    AFAIK the problem that the new road is intended to solve is 1) heavy trucks travelling through residential areas to get to the port; 2) the need for a second crossing of the river.

    Unless the geography of Melbourne is rearranged, extra trains won’t solve the problem as it is heavy vehicles which are causing the pollution and congestion and the port is kinda stuck in the bay!!.

    I personally don’t like toll roads and have managed to avoid them completely, but I live far out from central Melb.

  18. VE

    The Greens are consistent in wishing to ensure that those on low incomes are protected (and toll roads are actively regressive in that poor people tend to live in areas where they are forced to use toll roads (i.e. the outer suburbs), while rich people do not have to. It hits the less well off more than the well off, both in $ and % of income terms.

    I for one am heartily sick of the way the mainstream parties endorse the “screw the poor” philosophy endemic in our society.
    A classic example is the pervasive use of non-means-tested fines. A $400 fine for a minor infringement means absolutely fuck all to someone on a high salary, but is devastating to someone on a disability pension trying to live on $900 a fortnight. same with road tolls.
    Andrews can fuck off with his toll road. This is basic public infrastructure. It it causes political pain it serves the bastard right.

  19. Nicholas posted last night on the previous thread:

    ——————————————————-

    This is what the RMIT Centre for Urban Research says about the West Gate Tunnel Project:

    The WGTP in its current form…
    a. Is oversized, and does not meet most of its stated objectives.

    b. Has been planned without reference to a strategic framework for
    transportation in Victoria.

    c. Is premised upon a transport modelling process that has been secretive.

    d. Will hinder public transport service provision which, we argue, is against the stated objectives of the Transport Integration Act.

    e. Has a poorly considered urban design dimension, and will devastate potential for urban renewal in the brownfields areas to the north and west of Melbourne CBD.

    f. Emerges from a market-led process for infrastructure procurement that is opaque and raises serious governance questions.

    g. Includes an up-front public contribution of 1/3 the project cost plus a 12-year extension of the right to toll CityLink which is a very poor use of public funds and deprives Victoria of significant future revenue. These costs
    far outweigh any reasonable or credible assessment of the benefits.
    Therefore, we call on the Victorian Government to immediately stop work on the WGTP. The original West Gate Distributor proposal is a more appropriately scaled, reasonably priced, and strategically suitable solution. The fact that Transurban is willing to invest in a capital project at this time must not be used as a justification for ignoring the need for an integrated Victorian Transport Plan, or the long stated strategic objectives of the Victorian community.

    http://apo.org.au/system/files/122421/apo-nid122421-499941.pdf

  20. FMD the GG is subtle. Guess what picture they selected to go with this headline “Hidden dangers of union merger”……………………………………..Why of course the Grenfell Tower in flames.

  21. GG

    Of course the over the top response by the feds re crime in Victoria was derided.
    I am merely suggesting the Andrews Govt have a more comprehensive plan to deal with those who are engaging in criminal acts under the influence of drugs

  22. Lizzie

    Heavy trucks should not be going into the city.

    Heavy Trucks should have a depot and smaller trucks should do deliveries into the city.

    Thats where trains can’t deliver straight to the destination.

    In Sydney there is a direct freight rail line to the port. So that reduces the need for trucks delivering there.

    Sydneysiders know full well the evils of the toll road. They are hated for good reason.

    If trucks are the problem trains are the solution. Every time. Trains deliver freight far more efficiently.
    One freight rail line can deliver to a depot for more freight than a fleet of trucks can

  23. poor people tend to live in areas where they are forced to use toll roads (i.e. the outer suburbs)

    I would argue with that position.

  24. guytaur

    Heavy trucks should not be going into the city.

    Heavy Trucks should have a depot and smaller trucks should do deliveries into the city.

    The heavy trucks are not delivering to the city, but to and from the PORT. Don’t you understand?

  25. “Wildlife conservationist Bindi Irwin has joined a list of high-profile women transformed into a Barbie doll…”

    I am assuming here that the Mattel corporation has produced a new Barbie doll in the likeness of Bindi, not that Bindi has actually been transformed into a Barbie doll by a mad scientist, like people being turned into statues in an old horror film.

  26. @ lizzie – how exactly are you ruling out a train based solution?

    If it’s a single road, designed only to transport goods from one end of the road to the other end of it, that’s pretty much ticking off all the strengths of a goods train line and all of the weaknesses of a road based solution.

    Roads are more versatile. They can have intersections much more easily, and carry a variety of traffic – goods trucks, cars, bikes, emergency services etc.

    Goods trains have high goods carried per second, and high goods carried per $. Their drawback is that they can only carry goods, and only from A to B.

  27. GG

    You would think the Greens would be pleased with the Andrews Govt in terms of level crossing removal, metro tunnel, euthanasia bill, medicinal cannabis, domestic violence policy etc.
    Stuff them I say. Bunch of useless whingers.

  28. Over the past week, congressional Republicans have gotten a glimpse of the President Trump they hoped to never see.

    On gun safety and, more significantly to many of them, trade, the president has loudly broken with longstanding party orthodoxy and reminded Republican leaders on Capitol Hill that they can never be 100 percent certain of what they are going to get with the onetime New York Democrat.

    Despite such worries, Mr. Trump’s first-year actions on policy and personnel — particularly judicial nominees — provided substantial reassurance to congressional Republicans. They concluded that Mr. Trump was really one of them when it came to bedrock issues and that the anti-Washington, drain-the-swamp cries from the raucous campaign rallies were only so many applause lines.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/us/politics/republicans-worries-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Too funny. Racism, sexism, screwing the poor, misogyny: all OK. Threatening to take away their guns and tariff sanctions: not OK.

  29. Guytaur

    I don’t know why you bother commenting on a roads project you know nothing about, just cos your beloved Greens………

  30. guytaur

    I’m sorry, it’s a useless argument. The tunnel doesn’t go to the port. You’d need to study Melbourne to understand.

  31. Fess

    Trump is always and has been for himself. New Yorkers knew what he was all about, hence why he got such a low vote with them

  32. Victoria @ #79 Thursday, March 8th, 2018 – 9:56 am

    GG

    Of course the over the top response by the feds re crime in Victoria was derided.
    I am merely suggesting the Andrews Govt have a more comprehensive plan to deal with those who are engaging in criminal acts under the influence of drugs

    There are no instant solutions for embedded social problems like gang violence and crime.

    Comprehensive plans take time to develop and implement. They require broad community support and political debate.

    Simple knee jerk solutions and politicians reacting to angry rhetoric are actually part of the problem.

  33. Lizzie

    Guytaur has a habit of inserting himself into any argument to support his Greens. Reflecting the idiocy of what the Greens now stand for.
    I have just about had enough of them. Especially seeing what type of campaign they are running in the seat if Batman. Just pathetic

  34. Lizzie

    The problem is heavy trucks going to the port. So build a rail line to the port.

    By taking those trucks off the road you reduce the congestion. Thats roads not needed for heavy trucks from the west. Not on any of the roads on the way to the port.

  35. Confessions says: Thursday, March 8, 2018 at 10:05 am

    Over the past week, congressional Republicans have gotten a glimpse of the President Trump they hoped to never see.

    Too funny. Racism, sexism, screwing the poor, misogyny: all OK. Threatening to take away their guns and tariff sanctions: not OK.

    ******************************************************

    Bill Palmer – Donald Trump’s new trade war threatens to cost Republican donors money. For that reason, and that reason alone, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell are now leaping into action to try to stop Trump before he harms any more billionaires. Trump should have known better. The GOP doesn’t care how many racist things he says, or how many women he assaults, or how badly he weakens the United States on the world stage. But now that he’s screwing with Big Money, he’s finally in big trouble with his own party. We’ll see if he backs down.

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