Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Looks like Trump did in fact hold that cheat sheet, which I find incredible. He must have brought it out of his pocket later. And making no attempt to disguise it, in fact it is turned around for the cameras.

    There must be a story here. He wanted it to be noted. But for the normal human being, prompts like “I hear you” are repugnant in this venue.

    Distraction?

  3. Arky
    “@Diogenes That’d be an epic ethics committee application though.”
    There might be a problem with recruiting subjects as well.
    The only way I can think of doing it to send soldiers into an area, tell them war has broken out and simulate soldiers deaths from the other side with actors. Something like the Milgram Experiment where they got subjects to electric shock actors.

    dtt
    I agree with basically all of your post except the bit about surgeons being able to deliver babies. I’d be struck off if I did that, or did a cataract op or took an appendix out. Each surgical specialty has a pretty well-defined scope of practice.

  4. Joyce gone.

    Someone from the press was wondering if Broad would get a second. I’d reckon he’ll have no problem with that.

    Open season on Joyce now.

    Lots of ‘activity’ in parliament next week with Senate Estimates on as well.

    Snacks will be compulsory if anyone’s planning to try to keep up with the ‘going ons’.

  7. “I am sure the doctors on PB will have a different view.”
    Not this doctor. Most visits to GPs don’t improve anyone’s health. The problem is trying to get people to go when they need to and not go when they don’t need to.
    Nurses could do a lot of GP functions if appropriately trained in their scope of practice.

    I had you in mind and was nervous when writing that.

  9. GG,

    Eren begs to differ.

    It is also understood that he is considering reporting the matter to police.

    So many different versions of what happened.

    Who’s telling the truth?

  10. Confessions
    “Personally I think Darren Chester should lead the Nats when Barnaby finally goes.”

    Chester may be too moderate for the Nat party. As a SSM supporter, he may have pissed off a lot of ‘the base’.

  12. Also, the current fed Nat Party deputy leader (whats-her-name) comes from Vic, so the leader has to be from NSW or Qld. So that rules out Chester.

  14. Re the Nats
    Personally I think Darren Chester should lead the Nats when Barnaby finally goes.

    Perhaps someone said they should have a ‘broad based’, campaign to replace Joyce and someone took it literally.

    The next leader whoever they are will probably come from Queensland or secondly NSW.

  16. CTar1

    I had not heard of that incident. Pretty horrific stuff.

    This article was from an interview by Tony White who was the Regimental Medical Officer of the Battalion 1966-67

    It was on the afternoon of February 21, 1967 when B Company riding in Armoured Personnel Carriers hit mines and booby traps killing nine and wounding 22 others. …………………………..The 13 tonne vehicle had been tossed 3 metres away and onto its side

    https://www.5rar.asn.au/narrative/longhai.htm

  18. I think we need to look at the issue of intelligence again as well. We know that a certain proportion of the population are of below average intelligence and will struggle on most life metrics.

    The humane option would be to remove these people from their environments, impose income controls, place them in secure environments and put them in appropriate circumstances in socially useful work environments where they could do things such as cleaning, market gardening etc under supervision to repay the cost of their upkeep.

    I believe there will be quite a degree of support for such an common sense approach.

  24. Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 32m32 minutes ago

    Andrew Broad says the final straw for Nationals MPs who want Barnaby Joyce to resign was the deputy PM’s decision to do an interview with Fairfax Media yesterday #auspol

  25. Edwina StJohn @ #2318 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    I think we need to look at the issue of intelligence again as well. We know that a certain proportion of the population are of below average intelligence and will struggle on most life metrics.

    The humane option would be to remove these people from their environments, impose income controls, place them in secure environments and put them in appropriate circumstances in socially useful work environments where they could do things such as cleaning, market gardening etc under supervision to repay the cost of their upkeep.

    I believe there will be quite a degree of support for such an common sense approach.

    You’ve been reading Huxley again, haven’t you.

    But, rather than dwell on the negatives, I’m so glad that you have seen the light and are volunteering for this noble little social experiment..

    Golf clap!

  26. ‘I think we need to look at the issue of intelligence again as well. We know that a certain proportion of the population are of below average intelligence and will struggle on most life metrics. ”

    Don’t be too hard on yourself, Edwina. You’re a lot smarter than most insects I know.

  30. Board would not be making a public call if the numbers weren’t close but not quite there. I suggest it is running at 9-12 or 10-11 at the moment. They are just trying to put some pressure on the last one or two they need.

  33. JR

    When Joyce arrived back it was said that some Libs had suggested that Chester was too fair with infrastructure projects so Joyce ditched him and took over his portfolio..

    That probably ‘dooms’ him in any Nats leadership contest.

  34. Of course GG you can’t move beyond vile and switching non English migrants into dodgy mortgages, but i think you’ll find there would be a lot of support especially amongst labor voters as many of these folks are frightened by having indepndence.

  39. Rex Douglas @ #2202 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 3:49 pm

    Well we could return essential services to the state and introduce a jobs guarantee program for a start.

    I can’t see how this means Greens policies are able to support higher rates of immigration. Unless you mean that state services are less efficient than private services and therefore employ more people. Is that your argument?

  40. “Think of it as an enhanced guardianship project for the feeble.”

    Are you talking about Barnaby, or the Coalition joint party room in general? I especially like your idea of income controls.

  42. Peg,

    You might like to peruse K Murphy’s article from late last year on “factional realignment” in the Victorian ALP:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/21/labor-brawl-in-victoria-matters-its-a-threat-to-bill-shortens-leadership

    The story goes that during subsequent meeting two rightwingers – a couple of controversial characters, Adem Somyurek, who is positioning to assert himself as the key kingmaker in the Victorian right, and Kimberley Kitching, the Labor senator who is close to Shorten – tried to persuade Marles and Davis to sign up, invoking the leader’s imprimatur. At the time of writing, the document remains unsigned.

  43. We could start with a missionbeat type program where we picked up the derros sobered them out and put them to work to get a socially useful contribution out of them.

  44. Mr Newbie @ #2203 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 3:50 pm

    It always makes me laugh, the ‘we need more people of working-age to fund the retirement/health care of the elderly and keep the economy growing’, because then you’ll need ever-increasing numbers of working-age people to sustain it, which cannot continue forever. At some point, it has to crash.

    Yes indeed. Like any ponzi scheme.

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