Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Nearly two-thirds of respondents want Barnaby Joyce out as Nationals leader, as the Coalition and Malcolm Turnbull lose their gains from the year’s first poll a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47, after its first new poll for the year a fortnight ago had it down to 52-48. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, with Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, and One Nation bouncing back three points after a recent slump to 8%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-31 to 40-33. All we have in terms of leadership approval at this stage are that Malcolm Turnbull’s net rating has weakened from minus 13% to minus 18%. Also featured is a finding that 65% of respondents believe Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals, which breaks down into a lot of detail I’m finding hard to parse from Simon Benson’s report in The Australian. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1632.

UPDATE: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 34% and up four on disapproval 54%; Bill Shorten is steady on 34% approval and up two on disapproval to 54%. Only 23% agreed that Barnaby Joyce should remain Nationals leader, with 29% favouring him resigning from the front bench, 15% bowing out at the next election, and 21% quitting parliament immediately. The poll also finds 64% support for a ban on sexual relations between politicians and their employees, with 25% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Darc

    It’s a tricky one. Do you leave the leadership decision to the ‘grassroots’ or to the work colleagues?

    I think in elections the ordinary punter should generally stick to choosing their ‘reps’ in parliament.

    Then the parliamentary party sort who is the leader in parliament. They’ll know their colleges a lot better than the rest of us.

  2. Player One @ #599 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 3:08 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2150 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 2:59 pm

    Lib-Lab and Boerwars preferred trickle down neolib economic system simply can’t sustain a high immigration program.

    And the Greens can? More “magical thinking”?

    Gotta go out for a few hours. I look forward to your extensively researched and impeccably argued response 🙂

    Well we could return essential services to the state and introduce a jobs guarantee program for a start.

  3. Tom the first and best:

    While immigrants in their 20s and 30s today will be in their 40s and 50s in 20 years time, a large proportion of them will have children in their 20s and 30s. That will increase the number of 20-40 year olds for every over 60.

    And then we’ll have more over 60s in 20-40 years, who will need more 20 and 30-somethings. And the cycle repeats, getting bigger each time. But then what?

    It always makes me laugh, the ‘we need more people of working-age to fund the retirement/health care of the elderly and keep the economy growing’, because then you’ll need ever-increasing numbers of working-age people to sustain it, which cannot continue forever. At some point, it has to crash.

  4. CTar1 @ #636 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 3:48 pm

    Darc

    It’s a tricky one. Do you leave the leadership decision to the ‘grassroots’ or to the work colleagues?

    I think in elections the ordinary punter should generally stick to choosing their ‘reps’ in parliament.

    Then the parliamentary party sort who is the leader in parliament. They’ll know their colleges a lot better than the rest of us.

    …except that caucus voting is corrupted by vested interests

  5. MichelleObama: I’m in total awe of the extraordinary students in Florida. Like every movement for progress in our history, gun reform will take unyielding courage and endurance. But @barackobama and I believe in you, we’re proud of you, and we’re behind you every step of the way.

  7. guytaur @ #640 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 3:54 pm

    MichelleObama: I’m in total awe of the extraordinary students in Florida. Like every movement for progress in our history, gun reform will take unyielding courage and endurance. But @barackobama and I believe in you, we’re proud of you, and we’re behind you every step of the way.

    I wonder if Michelle would run as an independent on an anti-gun platform ?

  9. Bw

    Traditionally many men in many armies will shoot to miss. They have socialized inhibition against actually killing someone.

    Added to the many studies done by the Yanks that the majority of even well trained infantry are sh#t house shots.

    Hence the Military version (M-16) of the Colt AR-15 having a 3 shot ‘burst’ fire rate and the ‘users’ trained to ‘swing’ across the ‘target’.

  10. Just saw Kate Carnell on ABC TV bemoaning the fact that all the small business have to report data breaches or face fines of up to $3m; and many of them do not know of the regulation. Wants the Govt. to do something.

    First of all only a few are likely to breach the regulation and not all of them would pay the top fine, any who do create a serious breach probably deserve the fine.
    Second, as she was recently head of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry {ACCI} isn’t that organisation in a position to notify businesses in a flyer? They should have an extensive database of SME’. She could pick up the phone and ask them.

  13. ESJ

    I’d like to see more of a debate about health privatisation and user pays. I reckon a lot of poor people would welcome the opportunity to see a nurse at a discounted rate as opposed to a doctor. The later could charge higher fees from more well off folk.

    I disagree with premise that the problem is the public health. I also not convinced we can not afford the the existing model. But I agree that the solution has merit.

    I know a lobbyist in one of the pharmacy guilds – they are trying to give pharmacists a greater role in primary health care – a role that would reduce the need to go to a GP. I think there is a lot of scope for change in this area. Referrals is another.

    I am sure the doctors on PB will have a different view.

  14. CTar1

    Added to the many studies done by the Yanks that the majority of even well trained infantry are sh#t house shots.

    That’s if they actually shoot. Saw some WWII study on infantry in battle. Can’t remember the exact number but for US infantry I think it was only 15% fired during a battle. Whatever it was it was !! low. Not surprisingly the ‘Chermans’ and Russians were up the other end of the scale , about 90%.

  22. guytaur @ #654 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 4:10 pm

    AusPressCouncil: We are seeking an outstanding candidate to join the Australian Press Council as Complaints Officer. Deadline for applications is 12 March. Details here: bit.ly/2CzfRNk
    https://twitter.com/auspresscouncil/status/966173614331580417

    I complained to the ACP re the DailyMail article re ‘African Gangs’ earlier in the year and still haven’t received a reply. Maybe complaints are growing…?

  23. ABCDriveVIC: BREAKING: Nationals MP Andrew Broad says Barnaby Joyce should resign and “spend some time on the back bench”. He told #abcstatewidedrivevic Mr Joyce is not making sound judgement. #auspol barnaby #auspol

  25. guytaur @ #2119 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 1:30 pm

    NRA lady was not able to answer to what is a well regulated militia today

    I can answer that one!

    A well regulated militia is irrelevant today, because the Supreme Court decided that they were going to read over that statement as if it didn’t exist. As far as the Second Amendment cares nowadays, a lone nutjob and his personal arsenal are a “well regulated militia”.

  26. The entrenched “apartheid” of the Rohingya people in Myanmar, which in 2017 erupted into a brutal ethnic cleansing campaign, is emblematic of a broader global trend of dog-whistling, violence, and discrimination against marginalised minorities, Amnesty International has said in its annual report.

    Amnesty’s excoriating report paints a grim picture of the state of human rights globally, arguing that “hate-filled narratives by governments around the world” havegiven licence to bigotry and discrimination against already-vulnerable groups….

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/22/hate-filled-narratives-target-minorities-globally-says-amnesty-international

  27. We are seeking an outstanding candidate to join the Australian Press Council as Complaints Officer.

    Good. I have some outstanding complaints.

  31. ar

    A well regulated militia is irrelevant today, because the Supreme Court decided that they were going to read over that statement as if it didn’t exist.

    Yeah. A barrister once explained to me how that works. I am not sure who he was trying to convince.

    That judgement was a shocker and probably needs a new one to ‘amend’ it for any meaningful gun control laws to be able to get a foothold.

    I have heard that Gorsch is the dark horse in any new rulings.

  33. To slightly alter a catch phrase used in the gun debate “GUNS DON’T KILL PEOPLE, AMERICANS DO”. IMO that’s also true in international affairs.

  34. guytaur @ #658 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 4:14 pm

    ABCDriveVIC: BREAKING: Nationals MP Andrew Broad says Barnaby Joyce should resign and “spend some time on the back bench”. He told #abcstatewidedrivevic Mr Joyce is not making sound judgement. #auspol barnaby #auspol

    Andrew Broad tells ABC Victoria Statewide Drive he will move a resolution to replace Barnaby Joyce as leader on Monday #auspol— Tom McIlroy (@TomMcIlroy) February 22, 2018

  36. Adrian – did you watch Shorten’s past few press conferences or are you going on the media reports? Big difference between what he says, and the reporting which just cherry-picks the ‘sensational’ stuff.

  37. Poroti, a friend of mine is a Viet vet. He said he volunteered to carry the light machine gun for the platoon as he said he couldn’t trust anyone else with it. He suspected if they encountered an ambush they would either freeze or drop it and run. He said he knew he would pull the trigger.

    His greatest fear was the m18 landmine (kindly supplied by the Aussies) and every step he took he worried one would go off.

  39. Rex – segregating low income earners by making them see a nurse instead of a doctor is the essence of destroying the foundations of Medicare.

    Often, it is the lower income earners who MOST need qualified doctors. Their low income exacerbates ill health.

    Go back to your drawing board – the current one is defective.

  42. Simon Katich @ #2210 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 3:04 pm

    ESJ

    I’d like to see more of a debate about health privatisation and user pays. I reckon a lot of poor people would welcome the opportunity to see a nurse at a discounted rate as opposed to a doctor. The later could charge higher fees from more well off folk.

    I disagree with premise that the problem is the public health. I also not convinced we can not afford the the existing model. But I agree that the solution has merit.

    I know a lobbyist in one of the pharmacy guilds – they are trying to give pharmacists a greater role in primary health care – a role that would reduce the need to go to a GP. I think there is a lot of scope for change in this area. Referrals is another.

    I am sure the doctors on PB will have a different view.

    ESJ is clearly spouting the line of the extreme IPA types.

    Basically if you want to let the butcher take put your appendix it is your choice. buyer beware.

    Nurses are NOT trained to give medical advice, although obviously some have the skil set.

    Trouble is a nurse with 40 years experience has probably picked up most of what any young doctor learned in med school, but a newly minted sister does not,

    However what i would like to see is a complete overhaul of the medical qualifications system with much, much more competency based licensing. not all GPs would be licenced to do surgery nor all surgeons licenced to deliver babies etc.

    There could easily be a range of GP type services that could be delegated to pharmacist or senior nurses – medical certificates would be one such and also treatment of minor wounds and skin complaints. Medication reviews could be conducted annually by pharmacists, for those with chronic illness. A rang of repeat prescription services could also be via the pharmacist. Allergy testing might be another role for pharmacists.

    First check type reviews of patients could also be good for TRAINED nurses (probably not pharmacists) eg checking if a child presenting with cold/flu has incipient bronchitis and needs referral to GP or possibly many gastro complaints. Rather than GPs making expensive home visits rarely to the housebound (usually the elderly) nurses could visit monthly or weekly to check blood pressure, sugar levels, dementia and coping etc. as well of course managing any wounds or dressings. Blue care and others do the second, but the routine visits are overlooked.

    The key is that those licensed to deliver such advice must pass STRINGENT exams first and they must be refreshed regularly.

  44. Poroti ‘Would do wonders for the nerves wondering if each step would be your last.’

    Worse than death was the fear of loosing your legs and/or gonads and living.

  45. Landmines are usually not designed to kill anyone, but rather to blow a leg off. That’s because a maimed soldier is more of a burden to the enemy than a dead soldier.

    Doesn’t it make you proud to be part of a species that thinks of things like that?

  46. jenauthor @ #674 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 4:26 pm

    Rex – segregating low income earners by making them see a nurse instead of a doctor is the essence of destroying the foundations of Medicare.

    Often, it is the lower income earners who MOST need qualified doctors. Their low income exacerbates ill health.

    Go back to your drawing board – the current one is defective.

    Shouldn’t you be directing that to ESJ ?

  47. Simon Katich @ #2233 Thursday, February 22nd, 2018 – 1:21 pm

    ar

    A well regulated militia is irrelevant today, because the Supreme Court decided that they were going to read over that statement as if it didn’t exist.

    Yeah. A barrister once explained to me how that works. I am not sure who he was trying to convince.

    That judgement was a shocker and probably needs a new one to ‘amend’ it for any meaningful gun control laws to be able to get a foothold.

    I have heard that Gorsch is the dark horse in any new rulings.

    I found this, don’t know if it’s based on the actual SC ruling or just an observation of the apparent situation there. ;(

    militia
    mɪˈlɪʃə/Submit
    noun
    a military force that is raised from the civil population to supplement a regular army in an emergency.
    “creating a militia was no answer to the army’s manpower problem”

    a military force that engages in rebel or terrorist activities in opposition to a regular army.

    (in the US) all able-bodied civilians eligible by law for military service.

    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=f1WOWt61OIS60AShua_4CA&q=militia+definition&oq=militia&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0l6j0i10k1j0l3.2425.2425.0.5054.1.1.0.0.0.0.220.220.2-1.1.0….0…1.2.64.psy-ab..0.1.217….0.npINDDu5oVo

  48. “”Wow @Rex, you really do live in a fantasy world.””
    He has not worked out if you kill off Labor, you end up with the Liberals forever and some nut cases.
    The Greens are 85% Labor plus some crazy policies!.

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