Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:
• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.
• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.
• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.
guytaur
Bevan Shields is a journo. Therefore as a journo he could investigate who allowed this crapola to go to air.
CT
That’s because she has God acting against her.
DIogenes
I read the report on Susan Lamb. It would appear that her case is not cut and dry due to a “complex family situation”.
She did attempt to renounce two weeks before nominations closed.
I am going to reserve judgment on this one.
Victoria
Bevan Shields is not just a journo. As we have seen in the past he has supported the government.
So his calling out his colleagues like this is an important signal to journalists.
So far its Barrie Cassidy and him out of the old media journos. Calling out the prompts racism stuff.
Of course this is after the fact in the case of Fairfax.
hughriminton: Sydney rail customers will not be refunded for last week’s #railfail, says Premier because “we don’t have a precedent for that.” But says she’s “deeply sorry.” #TenNews pic.twitter.com/BKzAxCuxgA
So much for the vaunted advantage of Opal enabling refunds.
Victoria @ #1853 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:51 am
I’ve always thought Lamb is on very shaky ground.
If the document is a required one to renounce and she can not show that her mother refused to provide it, I think she would be in trouble.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/electric-cars-breaking-australia-roads-reform-road-user-charging/9235564
Car is by far the most common way to get to work. About two out of three travel to work this way.
And that number is increasing — it’s up by more than half a million since 2011.
It’s the most popular way to get to work in every city, by far.
Chart showing that cars are the dominant form of commuting in each Australian city, at least 50 per cent everywhere.
lizzie says:
Monday, January 15, 2018 at 10:48 am
I’d like to have a little grumble about some reported ‘research’. (Sorrry, I’m grumpy today.)
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/has-life-really-gotten-better-for-everyone-20180113-h0i035.html
1. The ‘has gotten’ in the title is not necessary. I prefer “Is life really better?”
If it is simply the use of the word ‘gotten’ you object to, it is a perfectly legitimate word.
Jun 23, 2012 – Gotten has been in use since the 4th century in Britain and was used by Shakespeare. In Richard III he writes: With much ado at length have gotten leave, To look upon my sometimes royal master’s face.
It is one of those words that survived in the fledgeling US, but died out in ye olde England.
I like gotten, I use it a lot.
But perhaps it is the sentence construction that you don’t like.
guytaur @ #1855 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:57 am
A precedent is created by doing something for the first time.
The fact there is no precedent doesn’t stop creating one.
What she really would have said if she was honest was;
🙂
don @ #1858 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 11:02 am
As in forgotten? You seem to do that a lot too these days!
“Has gotten” does not mean the same as “is”
CTar1 @ #1848 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:47 am
Ah, yes, but earlier when talking about something else, (roads and safety, I think) just behind her, with an award winning nod was Deputy police chief Catherine Burn.
Catherine managed to appear interested, supportive and impressed.
My “Gold Elephant Stamp” award for today goes to, wait for it – (fanfare blares ♫♪♫) Catherine Burn. ♫♫♪ 🐘 Please use your imagination (the same stuff possibly used by Catherine while daydreaming and appearing as described above) to colour the elephant in glittering gold.
That ABC article has highlighted the stumbling block for the LNP on electric cars. Its the loss of revenue from no fuel subsidy that is stopping them standardising charging points.
Can’t have electric cars making transport way cheaper for people to use.
Cottrell and friends have form.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/farright-trio-convicted-fined-2000-each-over-mockbeheading-mosque-protest-20170905-gybdei.html
I’m going to be a bit more conservative in second guessing the HC than I have in the past, but not getting documents from an estranged relative would seem on the face of it as at least arguable.
The main question on reasonable steps seems to be if the principle is applicable to country’s that actually allow renunciation. If Lamb gets over that hurdle, then the idea that a foreign country can legitimately refuse your renunciation simply because you can’t produce a document from someone you have no relationship with would seem a stretch.
The simpler principle is to take the power to prevent effective renunciation for the purposes of s44 out of the vagaries of the actions of third parties and judge them solely on the actions of the prospective candidate.
ratsak
No second guessing needed. Thats the approach that I think the HC took with Malcolm Roberts in ruling he had not taken reasonable steps as he had argued.
It wasn’t the UK response that brought Roberts undone it was how he went about it. Mailer Daemon did not cut it. 🙂
I love the way you’ve all leapt to the defence of ‘gotten’ but not to the rest of the post.
I’ve heard that “used in ye olden days” before.
It came back here through America. It makes for clumsier sentences. “I have gotten” can just as easily be “I have”.
But I’m not not trying to persuade anyone.
ratsak @ #1865 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:13 am
I don’t disagree, but as I said, I think she needs to be able to demonstrate that she tried to obtain the document and was refused.
‘Ivanka Suite’ At Trump International Hotel Cost $2,134 Per Night, More Than Doubling in Price in a Year
The price of the “Ivanka suite” at the Trump International Hotel in Washington D.C. has more than doubled since Donald Trump became president, and a watchdog group says this is just the latest evidence of the first family cashing in on its time in the White House.
http://www.newsweek.com/ivanka-suite-trump-international-hotel-goes-2134-night-781136
lizzie @ #1867 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:17 am
Is everyone forgetting that the simple “got” is also acceptable as the past participle?
Personally I prefer lizzie’s simple form of the question as the subject of the question is life now and not in the past. 🙂
If I’m reading it right (Lamb made an attempt to revoke before the due date, but didn’t fill out the forms completely and correctly) she is in exactly the same situation as Malcolm Roberts.
Either way it’s going to be up to the High Court yet again.
CTar1 @ #1848 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:47 am
More uncomfortable than usual. She always looks like she’s got her shoes on the wrong feet.
Has life really improved for everyone?
KayJay
Catherine Burn probably dreaming about being Police Commissioner and where it all went wrong.
Her war on competitor Nick Kaldas might have got rid of Kaldas but has left her going nowhere other than retirement.
guytaur @ #1857 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 11:01 am
and Sydney by % means of travel the lowest car usage.
Labor and Lamb haven’t agreed to go to the HC yet. I think they want her to have a few Lib MPs go with her.
VE
My understanding is that her mother will not give her a copy of her marriage certificate and without it she is unable to demonstrate to the UK Home Office that she is a UK Citizen and therefore they won’t ‘revoke’.
blkrnbow: Zachary (@ZedAyySeeKay) Penrith-Puchalski explains what January 26th means to him as a gay Aboriginal man via @star_observer full issue available for download here: en.calameo.com/read/000199795… #ContagionOfLove #YouMatter #DeadlyAndProud #InvasionDay pic.twitter.com/3BFuT8zuA1
https://twitter.com/blkrnbow/status/952058222667378688
@ctar – I guess that is a bit of a protection. She might be able to claim, as Dastyari has, that she in unable to renounce and as long as she tried to get the document from her mother she made all reasonable steps.
Who knows how the HC would so hold in that case
CTar1 says:
Monday, January 15, 2018 at 11:36 am
VE
but didn’t fill out the forms completely and correctly
My understanding is that her mother will not give her a copy of her marriage certificate and without it she is unable to demonstrate to the UK Home Office that she is a UK Citizen and therefore they won’t ‘revoke’.
———————————————–
So if the UK Home Office will not declare that she is a UK Citizen then how can anyone successfully assert she is a dual citizen?
CTar1
if Susan Lambs parents were married in Australia, would it be possible for her to make application to Births Deaths Marriages office to seek a copy of same and reasons why it is required without the consent of either of her parents?
CTar1 @ #1875 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 11:31 am
Not to mention her memory problems which on the face of it would suggest deleting texts would not be a good idea, assuming you wanted to remember anything, in particular.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-16/sydney-siege-inquest-catherine-burn-forgot-andrew-scipione-text/7746558
The reason why I asked about birth deaths marriages etc. is when I have applied for such documents on behalf of third parties, I required their authorisation.
Only time I did not require authorisation is when I applied to get full birth certificates of my own children who were under 18 years old at the time
guytaur @ #1836 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:29 am
The Greens are too busy prancing around about 3rd order issues.
AndrewCatsaras: In World War 2 over 60 million people were killed, which was about 3% of the 1940 world population. Hitler & Nazism was responsible for most of that. You might want to think about that Channel Seven Melbourne when you give oxygen to Nazis who glorify Hitler.
DisplayName
Of course not.
For example, a white person is now not automatically superior to a non-Caucasian. A man is not automatically superior to a woman.
Higher standards of education means that uneducated people find it harder to find work.
It’s very difficult to progress people as a whole without the people at the top having to lose something.
“Who knows how the HC would so hold in that case”
Malcolm of course. 🙂
lizzie @ #1867 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 11:17 am
lizzie, not to be combative, and aside from the original context, ‘gotten’ to me means having something that you didn’t have before. As is : ‘ I have gotten used to … ‘ / ‘I have gotten the habit of ‘. There’s acquisition at work in the word.
So not exactly equivalent to ‘have’.
Victoria @ #1882 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:42 am
I was going to make the same point, I was able to get my grandfathers birth extract from the UK without any authorisation.
CTar1 @ #1840 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:34 am
The way Hamish kept pressing him and the tone of Hamish’s voice was interesting. Did I detect a note of disgust?
If a person cannot be barred from running for office because their country of citizenship won’t allow renunciation, the same principle must surely apply when a third party refuses to supply information – otherwise you can end up in a situation where a prospective candidate can effectively be held to ransom.
I don’t know much about the Lamb situation, just talking about the principle.
zoomster
Yes that principle and the Roberts case on what is reasonable on this end.
The reasonable being you actually talk to the government concerned if they let you revoke.
Roberts did not.
The principle you are talking about and what is reasonable steps to be taken by a candidate is where the case will be decided in my view.
Suppose the person who refused to provide the document also refuses to provide evidence that she refused to provide the document?
There is no law that says she has to do either.
Boer
And in that case you’d want to have evidence of your attempts to contact that person – for example, copies of letters you’d sent them (easy to have mail registered) or an email trail.
don @ #1858 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 11:02 am
Don, you seem to be the resident expert on this so I will ask you.
Is “learnings” in the same category? I first heard it used by someone about 10 years ago after they returned from a trip to the US.
I use ‘lessons’.
Perhaps X is delaying pre-selections because the next step would be inquiries about policies. When you want to slink in to power on the”Vibe” then policy scrutiny is not something you wish to be focussed upon.
Itza
Despite the Sydney Train problems that Sydney has, the least use of cars, is why trains are the way to go for all mass commuters.
Combine that with a proper NBN and car use will reduce substantially. Thus the costs of maintaining roads will also reduce.
bemused
I am with you on “learnings”. Lessons is the word for me.