New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “New year news (week two)”

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  1. Beautiful story about watching the 17 hour version of ‘The Ghan’ on SBS:

    After 13 hours, the Ghan crosses a bridge and I finally understand what is happening to my brain.

    I have been watching the same train since 2.30am, and it has shown me more of my country than I could ever remember, and wrapped my life, for one day, around the very simple but compelling promise of movement.

    I have seen nearly 3,000km of Australia top to bottom, and the bridge crossing – which I see out of the corner of my eye – is so unexpected it becomes one of the most beautiful parts of the trip. It is up there with the pre-dawn, tree-lined entry into the Northern Territory’s Never Never, and Port Augusta at sunset.

    I now understand slow TV. I have stared into it and it has stared right back.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jan/15/i-watched-a-17-hour-broadcast-of-a-train-crossing-australia-it-didnt-disappoint

  2. Based on various learnings about wildfires (including having management responsibility for wildfires) the things that stand out that being in a wildfire is a major learning experience for many people because (a) fires can move shockingly fast (b) circumstances including acrid smoke, noise, flames, extreme heat, and panicked nearest and dearests/pets can be very confusing (c) thinking rationally in the time available is extremely difficult (d) very small things (where are the keys?) can lead to major consequences (e)there are no second chances – you get everything right the first time or not at all.

  3. Boerwar @ #1800 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    ‘ItzaDream says:
    Monday, January 15, 2018 at 7:20 am

    Addit – we’ve got roof sprinklers and a couple of major fire hoses fed from the dam driven by petrol pump and a house built with fires in mind.’

    1. Change to a diesel pump. Petrol vaporizes in extreme heat.
    2. Make sure the pump is in a bunker so that it does not catch fire either from radiated heat or from nearby fallen timber and the like.
    3. Make sure that all hoses, pipes etc are buried under a deep layer of insulating soil.
    4. Note that if a single seal/plastic fitting/hose anywhere in the system melts under radiation or from, say, a fire in an outbuilding, then the pressure fails for the whole system.
    5. Note that during wildfires very strong winds are common. This means that your dam is likely to be the sump for large amounts of wind-blown trash. Make sure that your down pipe filter is robust to, or protected from, being clogged by said trash.

    Hi Bw

    The pump is in a little Hebel house of its own; pipes are buried where ever possible; the inlet to the pump draw is about 10 cms below water level; but the roof piping is only part copper, the integrity of the rest dependent of staying wet, a self serving circle of risk. You are as you point out only as good as your weakest point. What is interesting when you embark on this exercise is the extent to which you end up compromising, for all the obvious reasons.

    Our plan is to start the roof sprinklers within a critical approach time (they cover an area beyond the house); spend the firestorm time in the bunker (say 15 minutes, say); then use the fire houses – massive like from fire tankers – to put out any residual burning, smouldering, assuming the pump is still pumping. The pump house is within the range of the roof sprinklers, hopefully self serving.

    But of the house goes, the house goes. My original intent was to build a truly earth covered house, the site is perfect, but was conflicted with OH.

  4. Boerwar @ #1802 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 8:43 am

    Based on various learnings about wildfires (including having management responsibility for wildfires) the things that stand out that being in a wildfire is a major learning experience for many people because (a) fires can move shockingly fast (b) circumstances including acrid smoke, noise, flames, extreme heat, and panicked nearest and dearests/pets can be very confusing (c) thinking rationally in the time available is extremely difficult (d) very small things (where are the keys?) can lead to major consequences (e)there are no second chances – you get everything right the first time or not at all.

    Absolutely. And hence the need for rehearsals. The ‘have-a-plan’ meme from the RFS is very worthwhile. What I think needs to be emphasised is to rehearse it, literally.

  7. Morning bludgers

    The Australian Open has started today, and weather will be mild.
    Heating up towards ends of week.

    Premier Andrews has asked Canberra to contribute funding to a database to assist law enforcement in tracking troublemakers across jurisdictions in light of recent incidents in Melbourne being caused by those from NSW.

    Still waiting for Turnbull and Dutton to do a joint presser on the crisis of African gangs coming from NSW and causing mayhem in Victoria.

  8. Meanwhile the msm continue to shit me in this space

    Denise Shrivell
    Denise Shrivell
    @deniseshrivell
    ·
    43m
    You are framing this story & showing graphics which indicate a violent, white supremacist group is ‘fighting back’ against an issue which you’ve inflamed in the first place. Shameful & irresponsible reporting #auspol
    7 News Melbourne
    @7NewsMelbourne
    Embedded video
    7 News reporter @jodilee_7 has been granted exclusive access to a secret meeting organised by right wing activists in response to Melbourne’s African youth crime crisis. #7News
    7
    60
    77

  9. ABC Breakfast had an excellent segment this morning where Hamis McDonald made an absolute fool of Xenophon and showed him up for the phony he is.
    McDonald’s persistent questioning revealed that there was no substance to the ‘policies’, just thought bubbles.
    Well worth a listen, even Adrian would have enjoyed it. 😀

  13. Steve777 @ #1811 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:21 am

    Just “concerned citizens protecting the community from crime”?

    https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/blair-cottrell-7-news/

    This straight from the US, the police and the Government can’t protect us so we have to protect ourselves mentality.

    Here’s what Blair had to say about what his group describes as an ‘immigrant crime wave’:

    Well nothing is being done. The government could be doing a lot more to combat this crime, but police aren’t being given the powers they need to combat this problem we have in this country.

    Then we’re shown his fellow mate Kane Miller, also of the True Blue Crew.

    We have a few ideas we hope to put in place. Um, it’s about time the community got involved, because it’s clear to see that the police can’t save us all.

    Obvious follow up questions,

    What are your ideas?

    What can you do that the police can’t?

    F@#$ing idiots!@!!!

  14. If Xenophon is a phony, he’s a good phony. His instincts are right. He’s no racist. He wants to do good things.

    Can you say the same about so many of the machine politicians?

    X is a terrific political operator. The majors are s..t-scared of him. If nothing else, he keeps them (a little bit more) honest.

  15. McDonald’s persistent questioning revealed that there was no substance to the ‘policies’, just thought bubbles.

    Although I didn’t see this interview, I’m not surprised.

    Hamish McDonald is one of the few truly classy ABC journalists, of genuine international status and talent.

    Another refreshing change at the ABC during summer is Josh Zepps (aka “Szeps”, son of actor Henry Szeps) on ABC Sydney Breakfast radio. Zepps has a sharp, intelligent and enquiring mind, plus has the advantage of a good sense of humour, and has worked extensively in America.

    The similarities between the two – McDonald on TV and Zepps on radio, but both as temporary fill-in presenters – come from their being unafraid to lose cosy fulltime sinecures at the ABC by “rocking the political boat” too energetically. That and their international maturity as journalists puts them streets ahead of the usual time-servers that fill their positions the rest of the year. In short, they can take it or leave it. There are bigger fish to fry for them than giving footrubs to the self-styled big piranhas in Australia’s very small local pond.

    Used to be, once upon a time, that “Summer Radio and TV” were pretty boring (and there are still pockets of this here and there), but by and large in the past few years they have improved to the extent that they are actually markedly superior in content and presentation to regular programming.

    (And I might add, thank God for Tony Delroy’s retirement. He was well past his use-by date. His first fill-in didn’t fare well (hardly surprising) and fled the scene. But by the time Phillip Williams got the permanent gig, things had settled down. Williams presents a far more interesting show, without the Delroy baggage that had built up over literally decades).

  16. Boolenbach

    That is an interesting article re Kim.

    It does not gel with the picture painted by our media.

    Psychologist please correct me if I am wrong, but I have always thought that severe psychological problems (like being a psychopath) would be evident in teenage years, but this guy seems to have been relatively normal (even down to hunger strikes if mother asked him to study more).

    So does this mean he has changed?, necessity or other pressures have turned him violent? he feels he has no other choices? it is all a bit of theatre and he is not as mad as he seems? the MSN are just wrong? someone else killed his brother (or his brother was a spy of some kind)? he hid his violent tendencies when young? it is cultural? too much power to young?

  17. The Toorak Toff @ #1814 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:46 am

    If Xenophon is a phony, he’s a good phony. His instincts are right. He’s no racist. He wants to do good things.

    Can you say the same about so many of the machine politicians?

    X is a terrific political operator. The majors are s..t-scared of him. If nothing else, he keeps them (a little bit more) honest.

    X has been an annoying bug to the major Parties who has rarely made any real difference even when he has been in the position to do so.

  18. @ The Toorak Toff “His instincts are right.”

    “We know from evidence from field studies… that low frequency noise (from wind turbines) actually causes health problems, physiological damage to people.” – Nick Xenophon

    His instincts are laughable. He is no better than any of the other ‘anti-science’ politicians in parliament.

  19. The Toorak Toff @ #1814 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    If Xenophon is a phony, he’s a good phony. His instincts are right. He’s no racist. He wants to do good things.

    Can you say the same about so many of the machine politicians?

    X is a terrific political operator. The majors are s..t-scared of him. If nothing else, he keeps them (a little bit more) honest.

    X is popular because he’s never had to be responsible for anything he proposes. He inhabits that twilight world known as populism. He’ll be hated soon enough as soon as he actually has to make decisions and be accountable for them.

  20. BB,

    I remember last year when McDonald made a similar impression on people when he filled in on radio over the summer.

  21. Very true.

    Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    1h1 hour ago
    #Trump’s silence on this deeply disturbing false nuclear alarm in Hawaii is of a piece with his silence on Russia’s cyberattack on the 2016 election. If he can’t think of an angle to brag about, he has nothing to say. Pathetic.

  23. A raft of retirements, difficulty recruiting candidates and President Trump’s continuing pattern of throwing his party off message have prompted new alarm among Republicans that they could be facing a Democratic electoral wave in November.

    The concern has grown so acute that Trump received what one congressional aide described as a “sobering” slide presentation about the difficult midterm landscape at Camp David last weekend, leading the president to pledge a robust schedule of fundraising and campaign travel in the coming months, White House officials said.

    But the trends have continued, and perhaps worsened, since that briefing, with two more prominent Republican House members announcing plans to retire from vulnerable seats and a would-be recruit begging off a Senate challenge to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota despite pressure from Trump to run.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-alarm-among-republicans-that-democrats-could-win-big-this-year/2018/01/13/9be31acc-f8a8-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_wave-8am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.dadb8add9f0c

  24. The Toorak Toff @ #1814 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    If Xenophon is a phony, he’s a good phony. His instincts are right. He’s no racist. He wants to do good things.

    Can you say the same about so many of the machine politicians?

    X is a terrific political operator. The majors are s..t-scared of him. If nothing else, he keeps them (a little bit more) honest.

    Ha, I bet you were taken in by ‘phony’ Chipp too and were a Democrat!

    A couple more interviews like the one this morning with Hamish McDonald will show him up for just how hollow he is. He has thought bubbles in place of policies.

  25. Confessions @ #1823 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    Trump received what one congressional aide described as a “sobering” slide presentation about the difficult midterm landscape at Camp David last weekend, leading the president to pledge a robust schedule of fundraising and campaign travel in the coming months

    Talk about missing the point. I hope he campaigns hard. Give everyone a nice, persistent reminder of why they need to vote Democrat in November.

  32. A President Hillary Clinton would’ve been a much more stable, saner and therefore safer pair of hands than the incumbent clown.

    Until Mr. Trump, no one could imagine the United States ever using a nuclear weapon again. America’s conventional military is more than strong enough to defend against most threats. But Mr. Trump has so shaken this orthodoxy that Congress has begun debating limits on his unilateral authority to launch nuclear weapons. Expanding the instances when America might use nuclear weapons could also make it easier for other nuclear-armed countries to justify using their own arsenals against adversaries.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/13/opinion/sunday/trump-nuclear-weapons-war.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region&_r=0

  33. guytaur @ #1829 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:16 am

    IMF: higher taxes for rich will cut inequality without hitting growth
    Analysis supports tax strategy of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour in UK – and undermines that of Donald Trump in US

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/11/imf-higher-taxes-rich-inequality-jeremy-corbyn-labour-donald-trump?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Yep,

    Just like every cut to welfare is a direct cut to the retail economy.

  34. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, January 15, 2018 at 10:16 am
    guytaur @ #1826 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:13 am

    Good Morning

    Barnaby Joyce is on my tele pork barreling with his inland rail.
    There is definitely a major issue with pigs in New England!!
    ___________________________________________

    I just wish Mr Joyce would deliver some pork to us here in New England. He is always promising pork tomorrow but never pork today!

  35. “This straight from the US, the police and the Government can’t protect us so we have to protect ourselves mentality.”

    I laugh at this kind of thing. They get all puffed up and macho about it and don’t realize that very often there are community programs where people are essentially organised to observe and report.

    Fact is that one of the most powerful weapons known to humanity is an observer, with communications, who can report a “targets” location and activities to those who can then hit that target.

    The visibility of groups of various ethnicity (like the Maori’s) can help, especially when its linked to the Police around for backup.

    The vigilante shit is counter productive scary stuff. Its essentially about ordinary folk going about threatening violence. Not a way to go.

  36. Barney

    Yes. Hopefully Labor and Greens take note and have a united voice quoting the IMF on this.

    For starters attacking Xenophon for supporting welfare cuts. It should be no tax cuts to anyone until poverty is eliminated by raising the income of those on welfare.

  37. You gotta love the comedians.

    Conan O’BrienVerified account@ConanOBrien
    47m47 minutes ago
    Still reeling from @realDonaldTrump’s very negative Yelp review of Haiti, which means I’ll love it. Headed to Haiti later this week to explore and make some new friends. Stay tuned for my report. #ConanWithoutBorders

  38. Susan Lamb seems to have a very creative idea of what “all reasonable steps” means. A parental marriage certificate is essential to prove she was a British citizen and her application was rejected because she didn’t get one from her estranged mother.

    Shorten has been let down by a few of his MPs.

  39. On the coverage 7 has given the vigilante groups

    2FBS: Righto @Channel7 you promoted Hanson and now you are normalising Hate Groups. I am done. Any advertiser on 7 now joins by product banned list. Where possible I will not purchase your product. It is the only way I have of registering my disgust and Seven’s blatant racism.

  40. So Xenophon has a plan to pay people to whistleblow but he’s got no idea how much.

    And he’s putting his trust in Kelly O’Dwyer to deliver this …

    And he’s not ready to announce more SA State parliament candidates.

    That’s all I got out of the interview.

  42. Confessions @ #1837 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:29 am

    You gotta love the comedians.

    Conan O’BrienVerified account@ConanOBrien
    47m47 minutes ago
    Still reeling from @realDonaldTrump’s very negative Yelp review of Haiti, which means I’ll love it. Headed to Haiti later this week to explore and make some new friends. Stay tuned for my report. #ConanWithoutBorders

    The other day there was a report ranking large cities and most of my favourite cities where lower ranked ones in countries that would obviously fall into Trump’s sh!thole category. 🙂

  43. ToryShepherd: I have never before seen such a thing. A legionnaires/helmet combination. Fabulous. #auspol pic.twitter.com/Mb6JbPTmMC

  44. hughriminton: “We want a clear conscience as a Govt that we’re doing everything we can,” says NSW Premier, announcing random #cocainetesting of motorists.
    #TenNews pic.twitter.com/XC4qQPc9rf

  45. Barney:

    Yes I think I saw that too.

    My favourite was a tweet from a msm journo to a Trump enabling Fox News airhead who had defended Trump by saying wtte if their country was obviously a shithole because they aren’t staying there. The reply tweet to her was ‘why do you work/live in California/NYC instead of your native South Dakota’?

    😆

  49. I’d like to have a little grumble about some reported ‘research’. (Sorrry, I’m grumpy today.)
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/has-life-really-gotten-better-for-everyone-20180113-h0i035.html

    1. The ‘has gotten’ in the title is not necessary. I prefer “Is life really better?”
    2. Each generation tends to think they are more advanced than the ‘old days’ 30 years before, so I say the questions were useless.
    3. How can you ask the question of those who weren’t born, whether life was ‘better’. They have no lived experience of that time.

    Results as quoted:

    Clearly, not everyone is feeling better off.

    Globally, people with lower levels of education were less likely to feel life had improved, presumably reflecting the changing job market towards knowledge-intense jobs.

    Older people were also more likely to be nostalgic for the past.

    In Australia, 63 per cent of people aged 18 to 29 rated life as better now, as did 55 per cent of people aged 30 to 49.

    Only 41 per cent of people aged over 50 thought the same. This dispersion between the answers of old and young was among the widest in the global survey.

    Well, derrrr.

  50. Susan Lamb seems to have a very creative idea of what “all reasonable steps” means. A parental marriage certificate is essential to prove she was a British citizen and her application was rejected because she didn’t get one from her estranged mother.

    Puts the Court of Disputed Returns into yet another difficult position there… unlike Joyce/Ludlam/Waters/Nash/Parry/Lambie/Roberts/… where their citizenship was clear (after they bothered to check), the fact of whether she is a foreign citizen hasn’t yet been determined.

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