New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “New year news (week two)”

Comments Page 36 of 45
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  1. I just cannot believe where some people live up in the Dandenong Ranges, houses nestled right in among the trees.
    And some still being built in such places!
    I love trees, but that is just plain crazy.

  2. fess

    I remember reading an account of the Cockatoo fires (early eighties, outside of Melbourne).

    A group had two blankets, one wool and one wool/acrylic. They lay down side by side, with a couple under the wool blanket and the other couple under the wool/acrylic one. They were so close that they frequently reached out to touch each other.

    When the fire passed, the wool/acrylic blanket had melted over the couple, killing them. The couple under the wool blanket next to them were untouched.

  3. bemused

    Eltham is the suburb that scares me.

    My sister in law lives on a hill there – you look out at a sea of treetops. But it isn’t a forest, it’s a suburb.

  4. bemused

    Stoopid to the max. Looks wonderful but one day that bush will burn baby burn, if not today then tomorrow or the day after.

  5. zoomster:

    Yes I’ve heard several personal stories of people getting caught in surprise fires and using whatever they had on hand, including an old wool blanket to take cover, and living to tell the story afterwards.

  6. Zoom:

    The dreaded wind change is basically impossible – the wind would have to blow down the face of the mountain, whereas fires like to race upwards.

    Indeed. I never go down the gorges in high fire danger times. The only way out is up the ridges, and if a fire started it would race up behind me and get me long before I made it to the top.

    And in high bushfire times, the ‘rivers’ are just a chain of shallow pools. The radiated heat from the gorge walls and their vegetation would cook you like a lobster.

    Sometimes the bush lets you through, sometimes it is wise not to push your luck.


  7. don (Block)
    Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 8:53 pm
    Comment #1730

    The 1967 Tasmanian fire:

    February 7, 1967

    My bet is the photo is of Cascade road just down from cascade Brewery looking towards Hobart.

  8. WA has very strict planning laws for bushfire prone areas. I heard a wonderfully amusing story last year of a very wealthy but supremely arrogant Perth-based couple who own significant ocean -front property in a neighbouring popular holiday spot, who have spent years terrorising locals with their bragged plans to build a honking resort style development in what is still a sleepy seaside town that barely has a township.

    The laws on bushfire planning changed, and guess what? They can’t even sell their exclusive property now, much less develop it because the bushfire hazard risk is too great to permit development. In the words of a local who is a friend of mine: this once multi million dollar property is now worthless except for its environmental and ecological quality.

    Environment: 1
    Rapacious landowner: 0

  9. Don
    Cascade road runs up a gorge; and continues up Mt wellington, at the time the houses were one street back. 1967 was not the first time houses in that street went up.

  10. zoomster @ #1753 Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 9:22 pm

    bemused

    Eltham is the suburb that scares me.

    My sister in law lives on a hill there – you look out at a sea of treetops. But it isn’t a forest, it’s a suburb.

    Around adjacent suburbs like Greensborough things are not much better. Some beyond Eltham are probably even worse.
    There was a fear on Black Friday that a change of wind could cause the fire to sweep through all those suburbs. It would have been horrific.

  11. This guy gets it about the current strategy of the Coalition:

    EBA Truth
    ‏

    @ebatruth
    9h9 hours ago
    More EBA Truth Retweeted The Australian
    Who is the current PR/strategist for the Libs? I think they are consciously aping Trump. Deliberately outrageous, idiotic statements designed to keep the limelight. #auspol

  12. It seems like the world is having a volcano and earthquake fit again

    Magnitude-7.1 earthquake strikes off coast of Peru

    A tsunami warning issued after a magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck close to Peru’s coast is cancelled.

    The USGS said the temblor struck 40 kilometres south-southwest of the small town of Acari, south of Lima, at 4:18am (local time) on Sunday at a depth of 12.1 kilometres.

    The magnitude was originally reported to be 7.3, but was revised down to 7.1.

    There have been no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

    The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre issued a warning for hazardous tsunami waves for the coasts of Peru and Chile.

  14. ‘It seems like the world is having a volcano and earthquake fit again’

    If I were a goat, I would be starting to get worried.

  15. It is quite appalling the International silence on Cambodia.

    The banned Cambodian Opposition is attempting to organise themselves outside Cambodia in an attempt to fight back against the Government, but without International support I can’t see it coming to much.

    I was only a couple of hundred metres away from Cambodia today when I visited a friend who lives near the border.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-14/exiled-cambodian-opposition-members-set-up-new-movement/9328058

  17. C@tmomma @ #1763 Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 5:54 pm

    This guy gets it about the current strategy of the Coalition:

    EBA Truth
    ‏

    @ebatruth
    9h9 hours ago
    More EBA Truth Retweeted The Australian
    Who is the current PR/strategist for the Libs? I think they are consciously aping Trump. Deliberately outrageous, idiotic statements designed to keep the limelight. #auspol

    I thought it was Rex!!!! 🙂

  26. “There are suburban residential areas in the Perth hills and the foothills for which falling ash catching on nearby bush could potentially be another fire disaster.”

    Yup. I grew up in the Perth Hills living on a steep hill. Had a couple of fires literally across on the other side of the road. Have a real horror of fire in the treetops and some automatic behavior triggers. Smell smoke of have ash-fall? Head up and find out why and where. Usually no threat at all but the one time it is can kill yah.
    I think one of the in your face lessons to be learned from some of the California stuff in particular is, “in suburbia” ……oh yeah. 🙁

    PeeBee, do not envy your Ash Wednesday experience at all. V scary stuff. 🙁

  30. Bill Murray debuts his Steve Bannon on ‘SNL’

    Bill Murray surprised audiences on NBC’s variety show on Saturday night debuting in the show’s opening sketch as former Trump White House chief strategist, Bannon. Saturday’s episode was the first of 2018.

    In the past, a cast member didn’t play Bannon, instead having the political figure played by a grim reaper character with a skull face mask. On Saturday night, during an “Morning Joe” segment, Murray came out in a black hood to big cheers from the audience.

    “The Bannon magic is still out there,” Murray as Bannon said. “Magic. Magic. The king maker! The Bannon dynasty is dawning.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/14/media/snl-bill-murray-steve-bannon/index.html

  33. BREXIT: Nigel Farrage …

    … a snap poll conducted after his intervention found 55 per cent would opt to remain in the EU and 45 per cent to leave if there was another vote. The original vote was 52 per cent to 48 per cent in favour of Brexit.

    In an interview with The Observer, Mr Farage said: “The Remain side are making all the running.

    “They have a majority in Parliament and unless we get ourselves organised we could lose the historic victory that was Brexit.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-brexit-eu-historic-victory-referendum-a8158211.html

  34. How many more of our current national and international problems can be traced back to the Howard years? The chickens are coming home to roost, featherless and starving.

    Other OECD nations now pump up aid; do their bit for global security if not humanity. Yet for every $100 we earn as a nation, we now give only 20 cents in overseas aid.

    And our giving is not selfless. Our aid program boosts Australia’s commercial interests at the expense of genuine local poverty eradication. Neoliberal, “Aid for trade” programs, first adopted by Howard, benefit Aussies far more than Islanders. “Creating a favourable environment for business”, or giving to the rich increases local poverty and inequality.

    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/01/14/turnbull-continues-to-attack-our-democracy/

  35. FredNK:

    Thanks for that. But the photos which I put up and now can’t see, although they appeared at first but not after refresh, were more like standard suburbia, as well as a shot of the CBD with fires very close indeed.

    And as the Californian fires demonstrated, being in suburbia is definitely no guarantee of safety if there is a major fire. I remember one stunning shot of the house of a bloke who left his sprinklers on before he left, came back, and his was the only house left standing in the suburb.

  36. lizzie @ #1784 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:39 am

    How many more of our current national and international problems can be traced back to the Howard years? The chickens are coming home to roost, featherless and starving.

    Other OECD nations now pump up aid; do their bit for global security if not humanity. Yet for every $100 we earn as a nation, we now give only 20 cents in overseas aid.

    And our giving is not selfless. Our aid program boosts Australia’s commercial interests at the expense of genuine local poverty eradication. Neoliberal, “Aid for trade” programs, first adopted by Howard, benefit Aussies far more than Islanders. “Creating a favourable environment for business”, or giving to the rich increases local poverty and inequality.

    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/01/14/turnbull-continues-to-attack-our-democracy/

    Thanks lizzie, a scary must read for an otherwise lovely sunny Monday morning. (Early Birds R Us.)

    The Trumpism of the jackbooted Dutton and the Stalinesque anti-treason legislation are truly terrifying.

  38. don @ #1785 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:53 am

    FredNK:

    Thanks for that. But the photos which I put up and now can’t see, although they appeared at first but not after refresh, were more like standard suburbia, as well as a shot of the CBD with fires very close indeed.

    And as the Californian fires demonstrated, being in suburbia is definitely no guarantee of safety if there is a major fire. I remember one stunning shot of the house of a bloke who left his sprinklers on before he left, came back, and his was the only house left standing in the suburb.

    Don, I’ve mentioned it before, and will drop it in again before this thread drifts, but I is a eejit living in the bush, and many more all around, because I want to, and take the risk. But I could be in Roseville, or Mt Colah for that matter. But I wanted to say I have installed a subterranean fire bunker, imported from Victoria, essentially two hours oxygen for six people once you close off the vents, no dancing mind you.

    (I’m down a dead end road from which the escape out is to my north west – bad – and I’d look like Pee Bee’s car, except I’d be in it, if things got bad.)

  39. ItzaDream @ #1788 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:14 am

    Don, I’ve mentioned it before, and will drop it in again before this thread drifts, but I is a eejit living in the bush, and many more all around, because I want to, and take the risk. But I could be in Roseville, or Mt Colah for that matter. But I wanted to say I have installed a subterranean fire bunker, imported from Victoria, essentially two hours oxygen for six people once you close off the vents, no dancing mind you.

    (I’m down a dead end road from which the escape out is to my north west – bad – and I’d look like Pee Bee’s car, except I’d be in it, if things got bad.)

    Addit – we’ve got roof sprinklers and a couple of major fire hoses fed from the dam driven by petrol pump and a house built with fires in mind.

  40. ItzaDream

    I considered one of those bunkers, but there seemed to be enough limitations to make me scared. Finding a suitable spot was difficult, as well as the fact that if a tall tree fell across the entrance, I might be trapped.

  41. lizzie @ #1790 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:20 am

    ItzaDream

    I considered one of those bunkers, but there seemed to be enough limitations to make me scared. Finding a suitable spot was difficult, as well as the fact that if a tall tree fell across the entrance, I might be trapped.

    Correct. It needs to be positioned away from the house but close enough, say within six metres, to the house to be able to get to in the dark, or heavy smoke. Plus you need all the gear – masks, goggles, woollen clothing ready. Ours is pretty well placed I think; I can step it out with my eyes closed. We have a few buckets, and a store of water, and extra gear, permanently in it.

    It is approved by the Victorian RFS and the MBA, but not by any NSW authorities afaik. Our local fire-ies have been – they have workshopped our road for each and every local – and they very much approve.

  42. The director principal of Human Rights For All, Alison Battisson, took Imasi’s case to the United Nations. She tells the Guardian his legal representatives are now poised to bring court action in Australia, including in the high court for a writ of habeas corpus, to secure Imasi’s release.

    Battisson says his treatment had been an egregious abuse of process.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/15/every-day-i-am-crushed-the-stateless-man-held-without-trial-by-australia-for-eight-years?CMP=share_btn_tw

  43. Look at the use of language.

    7 News Melbourne‏Verified account
    @7NewsMelbourne

    7 News reporter @jodilee_7 has been granted exclusive access to a secret meeting organised by right wing activists in response to Melbourne’s African youth crime crisis. #7News

  44. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Uren tells us that Bureau of Statistics figures show government-led costs are squeezing household budgets much more than the private sector. Google.
    /news/nation/rising-cost-of-essential-services-putting-the-squeeze-on-homes/news-story/632c20c2b1f79a3c496dba738cd27a5a
    Urban Wronski on how Turnbull is continuing to attack our democracy.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/01/14/turnbull-continues-to-attack-our-democracy/
    More management issues for Sydney trains.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-trains-caught-short-by-lack-of-drivers-as-crunch-day-arrives-20180113-h0ht62.html
    Australian legal minds to the rescue to the US on rampant gerrymandering.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/meet-the-australian-lawyer-trying-to-fix-the-us-electoral-system-a-vote-at-a-time-20180113-h0hwz5.html
    The Coalition is defending childcare policy after documents reveal areas hardest hit by changes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/14/coalition-defends-childcare-policy-after-documents-reveal-areas-hardest-hit-by-changes
    The bill for the government’s search to find the source of leaks about its transport projects has climbed to $234,000, as the investigation by both the NSW Police and the main transport agency continues more than six months after it began.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/investigation-into-leaked-transport-documents-continues-as-cost-hits-234000-20180112-h0hss4.html
    The royal commission into banking and financial services is being urged to investigate systemic irresponsible lending. Google.
    /business/financial-services/unfair-loans-face-perfect-storm/news-story/6ecc64f3ace11f50730e1414d0f60f37
    Bernie Sanders writes “ If we stand together against powerful special interests we can eliminate poverty, increase life expectancy and tackle climate change.” Good luck Bernie. It IS America you’re talking to.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/14/power-billionaires-bernie-sanders-poverty-life-expectancy-climate-change
    The SMH editorial looks at the effect Brexit has had on the people who actually proposed it and voted for t.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-can-of-worms–that-is-brexit-20180114-h0i6fi.html
    Cornell West explains how America is spiritually bankrupt.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/14/america-is-spiritually-bankrupt-we-must-fight-back-together
    Judith Ireland examines the field for Australia’s next female PM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/forget-oprah-for-president-the-contenders-to-be-australias-next-female-pm-20180110-h0gawo.html
    About $100 million appears to have disappeared from Plutus Payroll, the company at the centre Australia’s largest tax fraud case, according to a first report from the liquidator. What an unholy mess! Google.
    /news/policy/tax/plutus-payroll-collapse-leaves-100m-black-hole-20180112-h0hjn1
    Amazon won’t kill Aussie retailers but fast-moving evolution might writes Patrick Hatch.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/amazon-won-t-kill-aussie-retailers-but-evolution-might-20180114-p4yyh1.html
    Sponsoring “educational activities” for doctors is so financially lucrative that pharmaceutical companies are spending upwards of $200,000 on a single event, sparking fresh calls for a ban on industry funding.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/alarm-over-drug-companies-extravagant-spending-and-influence-on-doctors-20180110-h0g692.html
    Speculation is mounting in Labor that the veteran MP and former treasurer Wayne Swan is preparing to retire from politics at the next election, although he would only say he “has not made a decision as yet”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/15/its-time-wayne-swan-weighs-up-future-as-labor-sources-urge-retirement
    “Runway excursion incident”. How’s that for a euphemism!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/01/15/turkey-plane-runway-black-sea/

    Jess Irvine ponders over whether life now is better than it was 50 years ago.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/has-life-really-gotten-better-for-everyone-20180113-h0i035.html
    Trauma specialist Tony Joseph calls for more action on the national road toll.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-national-road-toll-what-can-be-done-20180113-h0hvjz.html
    Jennifer Duke looks at the effect of short term personal decision horizons.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/when-is-a-dollar-not-a-dollar-when-you-get-it-tomorrow-not-today-20180112-p4yyfv.html

    Cartoon Corner

    OMG! David Rowe is back and he starts the year with some toilet humour.

    Matt Golding goes back to the Mods.

    And SIX more from Golding!






    Sean Leahy on the heatwave.

    Fair enough!

    Modern US politics.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/23f8786c70340ef382559b88f5fb6a99

  45. “Runway excursion incident”. How’s that for a euphemism!

    “If you can walk away from a landing, it’s a good landing. If you use the airplane the next day, it’s an outstanding landing.” — Chuck Yeager

  46. PeeBee

    Last time I had a serious bushfire scare I packed the cars well before any threat was near enough to require advice to leave.

    I put all the valuables in the back of one car and had a friend drive it away and sent the cat on holiday.

    I could then relax and just wait out the fire knowing I just had to grab my car keys and handbag.

    Mind you am not a long way out so I could send stuff safely near by.

  47. Morning all. There has been a bit in the paper over the weekend about electric and autonomous cars. Josh Frydenberg commented on it, while making no mention of any federal effort to alter policy to match. This ABC article is a better summary than Frydenberg’s blathering.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/how-tesla-broke-australia-roads-reform-road-user-charging/9235564

    The point is, a lot is changing in transport policy internationally, but not here. I was at an international conference discussing the changes last week. There were many Australians present, but I saw none from federal government!

  49. Socrates @ #1797 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:52 am

    Morning all. There has been a bit in the paper over the weekend about electric and autonomous cars. Josh Frydenberg commented on it, while making no mention of any federal effort to alter policy to match. This ABC article is a better summary than Frydenberg’s blathering.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/how-tesla-broke-australia-roads-reform-road-user-charging/9235564

    The point is, a lot is changing in transport policy internationally, but not here. I was at an international conference discussing the changes last week. There were many Australians present, but I saw none from federal government!

    Frydennerg talked about it as if he were an outsider, completely detached from responsibiltiy, which they are, more fool us.

    In one of BK’s links (thanks BK), the Dr Tony Joseph RNSH piece on road safety, there is repeated mention of increased vehicle safety, very much associated with autonomous cars in my mind.

  50. ‘ItzaDream says:
    Monday, January 15, 2018 at 7:20 am

    Addit – we’ve got roof sprinklers and a couple of major fire hoses fed from the dam driven by petrol pump and a house built with fires in mind.’

    1. Change to a diesel pump. Petrol vaporizes in extreme heat.
    2. Make sure the pump is in a bunker so that it does not catch fire either from radiated heat or from nearby fallen timber and the like.
    3. Make sure that all hoses, pipes etc are buried under a deep layer of insulating soil.
    4. Note that if a single seal/plastic fitting/hose anywhere in the system melts under radiation or from, say, a fire in an outbuilding, then the pressure fails for the whole system.
    5. Note that during wildfires very strong winds are common. This means that your dam is likely to be the sump for large amounts of wind-blown trash. Make sure that your down pipe filter is robust to, or protected from, being clogged by said trash.

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