New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “New year news (week two)”

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  1. Perth weather

    Just passed 80mm for the 12 hours since 9am. Looking good for the century. They have already passed it on Rottnest. School holiday fun there.

  2. rossmcg

    Mr Terry told the court his client apologised for and regretted the ill-treatment of the animal, and had a “proven passion for animals and animal welfare”.

    They should have ‘placed’ the dropkick in the water to swim back to the mainland.

  3. CTar1

    It was pretty spectacular, happily with a good outcome.

    Wonder if BBC will follow up with today’s deluge. Grey skies and puddles not the same.

  4. I don’t think too many people will be surprised about this –

    The never-ending saga of the Ukip leadership continues with ‘anti-far right’ Henry Bolton in a pickle after his girlfriend turned out to be a bit racist
    If he is forced out, there will be a silver lining: all this publicity makes it far less likely that, when ‘Former Ukip Leaders’ next features as a topic on the teatime BBC1 quiz, Henry Bolton will be a pointless answer.

  5. GhostWhoVotes posted:

    #Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0) #auspol

    So the credibility of the Dutton, the CPG and Liberal voters are the only losers.

  6. frednk

    I guess that many will say ‘January holidays, people disengaged’ and it’s probably true.

    Duttons ‘Black gangs’ are really only pleasing his their own and probably those who vote for ON.

    ‘Water off a ducks back’ for most people however.

    The HC citizenship matters will be back big, I think, once things get going again.

  7. Ctari
    Erdogan is not to be trusted and this could change BUT I suspect there are some tectonic shifts in alliances happening.

    During the cold war Turkey was at the front of the battle between the giants and along with Berlin was where the spies hung out. Controlling as it does the gate to the Black Sea it is of enormous strategic importance.

    It seems as if the following has happened which is pushing Turkey into Russia’s orbit. No particular order

    1. SCO observer status (a while ago) and now offer to join
    2. The withdrawal of US patriots and other protective missiles (I suspect they no longer wrk well but not replacements yet
    3. Russia has cheap oil and gas
    4. China emerging as the economic power house
    5. Intervention against Assad was tried and failed
    6. The plane saga -who decided to shoot down the plane and then the Russian response which rather than bringing NATO to the aid of Turkey just led to severe sanctions that damaged the Turkish economy and Erdogan personally and which energised Russia to target in particular the illegal ISIS convoys of oil to Erdogan
    7. The coup
    8. Brexit – removing a Turkish ally
    9. The stand-off between Merkel and Erdogan
    10. The recent spat with Macron
    11. Decision to buy Russian s400s

    All these things seem to be pushing Turkey into the SCO and the OBOR project.

    Possibly there are counter moves by the US and NATO but I am not so sure of them.

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