New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “New year news (week two)”

Comments Page 44 of 45
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  4. The polling seems to have the same steady inevitability that it did during the Gillard government. Don’t think the coalition is going to come back from this.

  6. This is what happens when governments give private enterprise the green light to take over as many services as they want and gives the managers free rein.

    Carillion was Britain’s second biggest construction company and state contractor providing services in prisons, schools, hospitals, railways and military bases.

    Now it is in liquidation and the government has to find somebody else to do the work. Quickly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/15/carillion-failure-contracts-government-whitehall

  7. rossmcg @ #2156 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:00 pm

    This is what happens when governments give private enterprise the green light to take over as many services as they want and gives the managers free rein.

    Carillion was Britain’s second biggest construction company and state contractor providing services in prisons, schools, hospitals, railways and military bases.

    Now it is in liquidation and the government has to find somebody else to do the work. Quickly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/15/carillion-failure-contracts-government-whitehall

    Simple, just employ all the staff directly except for the top layer of management. Cheaper too.

  8. rmcg
    Privatization can leave you high and dry.
    The progress of Australia’s WW1 invasion fleet to pinch the german colonies to the north came to a halt when the fleet had to anchor somewhere in the Great Barrier Reef because of civilian strike action among some of the crews.
    The civilian trawler crews of the vessals which were supposed to clear the Dardenelles developed the view of eff that for a joke when they were shelled while trying to sweep the minefields.
    The rest, as they say, is history.

  9. Has Xenophon decided to retreat from nationwide representation in the federal parliament?

    Calling your party “South Australia Best” would not seem to endear you to voters in other states.

  11. ross
    But isn’t that the case everywhere in Oz?
    I don’t think any major building like hospitals, prisons, etc is done by the state or federal governments here.

    GG
    Nothing changes!
    In the words of one of my favourite books, “If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change”.

  18. Confessions @ #2153 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 9:46 pm

    C@t:

    I reckon Newspoll will resume along with parliament.

    Thanks. I just thought Mr Bowe may have had an indication as to exactly when it would be back. And I noticed he was around tonight (and pity not the other night when ESJ was doing their usual slurring attacks on me, not that I care).

  19. bemused @ #2166 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2163 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:13 pm

    bemused,

    That photo of Mt Taranaki I posted seems like it may have been photoshopped.

    Sorry! 🙂

    It would be a truly amazing natural phenomena.

    It’s based on lenticular cloud which is formed by moist air being forced up over a topographical barrier, i.e. mountains, etc.

    Heres the original photo.

    This link provides some more real examples, it’s a truly stunning form of cloud, has long been one of my favourite types since discovering it at Uni during Meteorology! 🙂

    https://www.tourismontheedge.com/hidden-places/lenticular-clouds-tiny-nature-spectacles

  20. Gio

    A construction firm building hospitals and prisons etc for government is one thing but this mob seems to have had fingers in many many pies far removed from construction.

    Even down to providing catering in schools.

    And like all these types of companies, it seems many of the workers were casuals or on contracts and have little or no protection.

    If the work is to be done be continued as it must in many cases, the government will pick up the tab. There is one report today of the Oxford County Council putting the fire brigade on notice to deliver meals to schools.

    Outsourcing is a great idea. Not.

    But the directors and executives will no doubt have been paid bonuses which they will most likely keep.

  23. Taylormade @ #2164 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:14 pm

    Am over the women’s tennis already.

    I have no idea why you need to grunt when simply playing a backhand slice.

    It was a psychological manouveur refined by the Russian drug cheat, Maria Sharapova. Meant to be off-putting to opponents, especially the shrill squeal she let out after each shot.

    I’ve been concentrating on watching the Men. Much less grunting. Which is kind of strange, but there you go.

  24. rossmcg:

    I’m assuming you’ve heard of Serco and its patchy record of public service with the contracts it manages for state/federal govt here?

  25. Barney in Go Dau @ #2169 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:29 pm

    bemused @ #2166 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2163 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:13 pm

    bemused,

    That photo of Mt Taranaki I posted seems like it may have been photoshopped.

    Sorry! 🙂

    It would be a truly amazing natural phenomena.

    It’s based on lenticular cloud which is formed by moist air being forced up over a topographical barrier, i.e. mountains, etc.

    Heres the original photo.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    This link provides some more real examples, it’s a truly stunning form of cloud, has long been one of my favourite types since discovering it at Uni during Meteorology! 🙂

    https://www.tourismontheedge.com/hidden-places/lenticular-clouds-tiny-nature-spectacles

    They look like flying saucers. 🙂

  28. It seems like the Neoliberal economic model is literally falling to bits in the UK. It happens when you construct a house of cards on a tissue of lies.

  29. C@tmomma @ #2173 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    Taylormade @ #2164 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:14 pm

    Am over the women’s tennis already.

    I have no idea why you need to grunt when simply playing a backhand slice.

    It was a psychological manouveur refined by the Russian drug cheat, Maria Sharapova. Meant to be off-putting to opponents, especially the shrill squeal she let out after each shot.

    I’ve been concentrating on watching the Men. Much less grunting. Which is kind of strange, but there you go.

    I thought Monica Seles was the originator.

  32. ross
    Sounds like Spotless who basically run the new RAH. I hear so many complaints about the nRAH and when you ask more closely, it’s usually Spotless who have stuffed up.
    Labor sold us down the river on that one.

  33. Why Romney could be that Republican hold out Senate check on Trump and not lose ground like others have who have opposed Trump. But would he? He’s just another Republican hack looking out for self interest rather than the national interest.

    The Romney ancestors were part of the story, back to 1837, when a carpenter named Miles Archibald Romney heard a missionary tell the story of Joseph Smith, Mormonism’s founding prophet.

    And because Utah leaders are determined to put on the best face for their state and their church, Mr. Romney’s image is far more important than the particulars of his residency. “All-American family, all-American business acumen, elected governor, ran for president in a respectful way,” as Mr. Cox put it.

    A sixth-generation Utahan who will say only that he did not vote for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Cox all but encouraged Mr. Romney to be a voice of opposition when needed.

    “I think if he wants to be a check, it won’t hurt him here like it has others,” he said, noting the Republican lawmakers who have been politically damaged for their criticism of Mr. Trump, such as Senators Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee, both of whom are retiring. “He could do it from Day 1 and he’d be fine.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/14/us/politics/romney-trump-senate-utah.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

  34. Diogenes @ #2181 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 10:44 pm

    ross
    Sounds like Spotless who basically run the new RAH. I hear so many complaints about the nRAH and when you ask more closely, it’s usually Spotless who have stuffed up.
    Labor sold us down the river on that one.

    Governments and senior bureaucrats don’e want to be responsible for anything if they can avoid it.

  35. Looks like China is trying on the same shenanigans on USA university campuses that they have been here, but the Americans aren’t buying it:

    Universities still face broader challenges in dealing with China. The Chinese government has sponsored hundreds of Confucius Institutes on college campuses that operate under opaque contracts and often stand accused of interfering in China-related education activities. Increasing numbers of Chinese students in the United States have come under pressure from their government when they have spoken against the party’s narrative. Some have begun challenging professors who speak critically about Beijing’s policies.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/university-rejects-chinese-communist-party-linked-influence-efforts-on-campus/2018/01/14/c454b54e-f7de-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-d%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.c398ddbd8f19

  36. Bemused

    I remember in Richard Court’s government the union worker hater Graham Kierath was a powerful figure. He outsourced as many jobs as he could. Usually starting with the low paid. School cleaners and hospital orderlies were early targets.

    And did the contract workers prove more efficient or cheaper. Not from what I heard.

    And now we have contractors providing all sorts of services and can we find out if we get value for money? No chance.

  37. bemused
    “Governments and senior bureaucrats don’e want to be responsible for anything if they can avoid it.”
    And this is happening under a Labor government. The Libs are even more pro-privatisation.
    The stream is pretty much flowing in one direction in Australia. You have to wonder where it will end up. There would have to be about ten steps towards privatisation for every one step towards socialisation or whatever it’s called.

  39. bemused

    From the start my cynical position was that pollies lurved privatisation because they were then, apparently, not responsible for fluck ups. It was them over there wot done it.

  40. I was expecting Essential to be worse for the Libs myself. The race baiting looked transparently desperate to me. Howard spent plenty of effort on his dog whistle, but it took 9/11 to make it work.

  41. Dio

    There have been plenty of Labor politicians in thrall of big business. Just look at how many of them end up working for corporate clients when they leave politics.

    I used to be a follower of The Age’s Ken Davidson who used to rail against governments getting into bed with business to develop projects which usually saw the government bear the risk and business collect the profits.

  43. but it took 9/11 to make it work.

    Don’t even think it! Today’s 9/11 attack is looking increasingly like a Trump led nuclear war.

  44. Fess, another reason I thought they would go down in the polls. It all has Trump optics… Any smart politician would quietly distance themselves.

  45. Poor little buggers. Most of the survivors will cark it in the next couple of days.

    The clean-up is continuing after a truck carrying thousands of chickens crashed over the side of an overpass in Geelong, scattering crates of chickens across the embankment below.

    The truck rolled off the side of the Princes Highway overpass at North Geelong about 10:15am, landing on an embankment beside Corio Quay Road.

    ….

    Acting Sergeant Brendan Whitefield said the semi-trailer was fully loaded with “thousands and thousands” of chickens.

    He said while many birds survived the rollover, a number of others were killed or injured.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/chicken-truck-rollover-north-geelong/9329092

  46. Question:

    I agree it has the optics of Trump bluster and blather. Perhaps people being away on holidays is the reason the Turnbull/Dutton racist attacks haven’t bitten poll-wise.

    GG mentioned they are using the Vic Sudanese issue to shift the polls in NSW and Qld. Hence Dutton being front and centre.

  47. Fess, It might help attract the PHON vote, but it seems like a stupid way to go about it. It’s now impossible for anyone to argue the Turnbull government are the sensible option.

  48. Meanwhile on PB weather watch 9:00 am-8:30pm 754% of monthly average rain has fallen here in the Wild Wild West. Pushing on to the 1000% in the 24 hours at this rate !

  49. Question:

    Someone said this polling environment feels like the dying days of the last Labor govt. I don’t think they are thinking rationally, just lashing out kicking at anything that might give them traction in the electorate, no matter how fool it might look to everyone.

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