Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:
• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.
• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.
• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2099 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:55 pm
Exactly, although when sitting having lunch in a restaurant on the volcano side of town it looks a lot closer.
Steven says:
Be prepared for next time, carry, ready to whip out and read, a UK paper when this was making front page news .
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2017/sep/13/fatberg-blocking-london-sewer-could-become-museum-exhibit
or maybe not in reverse.
or something…
Something about bottles sitting on the wall…
PHON is in record breaking mode pissing off and/or selecting ineligible candidates.
‘One Nation senator Fraser Anning has given notice he will sit as an independent in parliament and not as one of Pauline Hanson’s colleagues.
Senator Anning, who was third-placed on the One Nation ticket in Queensland at the 2016 election, replaced Malcolm Roberts who was found to have been disqualified due to his British citizenship.
He wrote in his letter to Senate President Stephen Parry on Monday he was unable to comply with the conditions One Nation had attempted to impose on him and would instead sit as an independent to promote the interest of rural and regional Queenslanders.’
Steven @ #2097 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:52 pm
Very disappointing comment. Violent intent shows nothing more than your own inadequacies.
Fairfax newspapers are a sorry sight these days. I read free copies of SMH and Canberra Times today while having lunch. Several (most?) articles were common to both papers and they were characterised by large font, lots of white space and very few advertisements.
It’s hard to tell but Fairfax’s radio stations of the redneck variety seem to carry more advertising than their newspapers. That is really nothing to boast about.
It’s sad to say but Murdoch’s Oz (heavily subsidised) is better value per gram of newsprint than the Fairfax papers. The DT sits somewhere between the SMH and the Oz and obviously relies on enough suckers buying the paper to keep it going.
“Supposedly the most perfect conical shape of all volcanoes.”.
Don’t tell that to the Japanese, who bestow that honour on Fuji-san.
Steven
I concur with GG.
Divided Nation make a submission challenging Lambie’s replacement for the Senate.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/15/one-nation-candidate-alleges-lambie-senate-replacement-has-conflict-of-interest
Pots & kettles – or is it birds of a feather?
citizen @ #2107 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:13 pm
Just repeating what I was told in Phil.
I would bet similar claims are made in a number of countries.
citizen @ #2110 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:21 pm
I’m OK with that.
“Donald Trump’s head of Homeland Security has suggested that anyone who brands the US President a racist based on his immigration views must also say the same for Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.”
It is clearly entirely true they are both very fond of very racist policies and earning votes by pandering to to and encouraging racial hate and division. They are both despicable scum history will judge very harshly.
bemused @ #2111 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 3:23 pm
You decide!
I’m not sure “fat slug” fits within the standards of decency allowable on this blog either.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2114 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 7:37 pm
Mayon has steeper sides so comparison is difficult.
Both pretty awesome.
Mount Egmont (aka Mount Taranaki) in NZ is a pretty photogenic volcano:
Steve777 @ #2117 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 3:40 pm
As a pure mountain, no, but still pretty spectacular!
BiGD @7:43: that’s amazing.
Fuji is a truncated cone. Mayon is a perfect cone.
Cloud or smoke/steam from the volcano?
“P-type” (parabolic/concave) volcanoes like Mayon and Kronotsky are prettier than “C-type” (conical) volcanoes like Fuji. Discuss.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241379834_Two_types_of_the_regular_stratovolcano_shape_a_DEM-based_morphometrical_analysis
One of the test sites at Maralinga was called Taranaki.
I wondered why until I saw that photo.
IIRC the shape is related to the viscosity of the magma/lava.
The things you learn on Poll Bludger….
Goodness, can this really be a Tory saying this?? None of our LNP mates would be heard uttering things like this…
Bernard Jenkin, the Conservative chairman of the House of Commons Public Administration Committee, said: “This really shakes public confidence in the ability of the private sector to deliver public services and infrastructure.”
He said there needed to be a change of “mindset” at companies that do a lot of work for the taxpayer.
“You’ve got to treat yourself much more as a branch of the public service, not as a private company just there to enrich the shareholders and the directors,” he said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42687032
8:00 raining————>5:00pm still raining@WeatherinPerthonPB.. 4 X monthly average and counting.
Poroti
40mm in my backyard gauge since 9am.
I have lived here in Perth’s inner south for 31 years and this is the fifth or six major summer rain event of tropical origin.
Record fall was 115mm last February. There was another many many years ago in the 80mm range. Might give that a nudge I reckon.
poroti @ #2127 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 5:19 pm
Please let it come down south! We desperately need the rain.
#weatheronPB
Why are you describing the ALP as “fifty shades of red”? The nomenclature is odd. I am glad that you want the ALP to reverse the damage it helped inflict in those policy areas. However, voting 1 for the ALP is misguided if those issues are important to you.
Confessions
Not much wind so it may be slow getting to you fingers crossed.
Re Mt Taranaki, spot the national park boundary 🙂
#weatheronPB: Perth has had over 40 mm of rain since 9:00. It had 7 mm overnight and is forecast to get 20-35 mm tomorrow: http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/perth.shtml
Perth has a Mediterranean climate, with hot dry Summers and cool, fairly wet Winters. However, the pattern seems to be changing. While the SW of WA has been losing its Winter rains, it seems to be getting more Summer rain events, as if the climate zones are shifting South.
Meanwhile, in Sydney, it basically rains whenever it feels like it and doesn’t rain when it doesn’t want to.
EDIT: Poroti @8:34PM: spectacular.
Steve777
It is surrounded by dairy farms hence the only difference is the change of green.
It’s clear who Trumpie is going to bill for his ten-fold increase in nuclear war capabilities.
The Mexicans.
He’s going to add it to the invoice for the Wall.
Acerbic Conehead
Keep in mind Trump’s 10x increase was calculated using the Aussie Ambassador’s you beaut pat. pending calculator Joe had lent him
Be careful how you talk about Mt Taranaki.
S/he might sue you for defamation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/22/new-zealand-gives-mount-taranaki-same-legal-rights-as-a-person
I will boycott Channel 7 after the Tennis.
Which is pretty much what I do every year anyway. 🙂
poroti:
LOL at the eleventy calculator! That’s brilliant, I’ve not seen it before.
Ghost Who Votes
#Essential Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 38 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 6 (-1) SAB 3 (+1) #auspol
Is this the most brilliant David Rowe?
GG:
That Essential result implies NXT changed its name federally. I thought SA Best was just the NXT Sth Australian iteration.
Some of the Jakarta stock exchange floor collapse footage is stunning…
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidlipson/status/952844552376803329/video/1
GHV
#Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0) #auspol
Nothing changes!
What a successful Xenophobic Dog Whistle!
Confessions
It was made by a former Poll Bludger, George Bludger. He did amazing graphics but unfortunately he and William had a falling out. Not sure why but it became pretty willing . He is still active if you look him up.
sprocket
Ouch!
Usually with steel failure you get deformation before failure. That looks like the anchors where into a concrete floor above and the overloading simply had them let go with no warning.
Will be interesting to see if it was shit engineering, or shit construction.
Of course there’s nothing to say it wasn’t both.
WeWantPaul @ #2113 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 6:36 pm
Using Australia as the exemplar in your “I’m not a racist” argument is…odd and self-defeating.
But it’ll play well in the States, where literally nobody has any knowledge of just how extremely racist Australia has been in the past or in many ways remains today.
poroti:
Yes I remember that commenter and I remember he was good with graphics etc.
At the risk of again having that gentle soul Steven denounce me as a bully — that level of ugliness and stupidity is indeed not allowed here. Poroti should be ashamed of himself as well.