New year news (week two)

A bunch of state polling, particularly from Victoria, and two items of preselection news.

Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:

• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.

The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.

Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.

• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 comments on “New year news (week two)”

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  1. I like “beget” and its various correlates….begot, begat, begotten, misbegotten, begetting…there must be a few more too. The addition of be is tonally useful, adding emphasis and meaning too. It is used elsewhere…besmirch, belittle, bedevil, beware, begone….a bewildering array…possibly even bemusing. English is first of all a spoken language. be is an aural device.

  2. Only last night I read (Tony Kevin’s Return To Moscow) that by 1900

    “average life expectancy at birth (in Russia) was just thirty years,
    far below the United Kingdom (fifty-two),
    Japan (fifty-one) and
    Germany (forty-nine); ”

    I have been following ‘the things are better’ thread, but those stats did jump out at me.

  3. ItzaDream @ #1902 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    Only last night I read (Tony Kevin’s Return To Moscow) that by 1900

    “average life expectancy at birth (in Russia) was just thirty years,
    far below the United Kingdom (fifty-two),
    Japan (fifty-one) and
    Germany (forty-nine); ”

    I have been following ‘the things are better’ thread, but those stats did jump out at me.

    *haven’t*, sorry

  4. Fletcher reckons that it is unfair for electric cars to get free road use while global warming promoting fossil burning cars get taxed…
    …watch this space.

  5. Boer

    ..and you don’t see anything about reasonable steps, either.

    It’s the same principle – if you have made attempts to renounce your citizenship but this is prevented by a third party, you need to show that you have made attempts.

  6. There could be good reason for not contacting an estranged relative at all. Not saying that applies in Lamb’s case, but it would be interesting if the HC would want to explore that point if a hypothetical someone was to argue it.

  7. Learnings ? I blame Borat and his movie!

    Blame Shakespeare (Cymbeline):
    “Puts to him all the learnings that his time / Could make him the receiver of.”

  8. Just heard on the news that Sydney train drivers had to learn to navigate the new system.

    I’m would have thought that is one thing they wouldn’t have to do. They don’t even have a steering wheel. They just have to speed up, slow down and stop. Where they go is up to someone else in a signal box somewhere.

  9. poroti @ #1911 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 12:07 pm

    Learnings ? I blame Borat and his movie 🙂 !

    Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan.

    2006

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0443453/

    Speaking of Borat and the Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, I heard on the BBC last night that they are dropping the Cyrillic alphabet in favour of the Roman alphabet.

    But wait, it gets worse! Apparently they originally used Arabic script, then at switched to the Roman alphabet, then to the Cyrillic Alphabet and now they are going back to the Roman Alphabet.

    Sound like fun?

  10. Gallagher’s case will settle if Reasonable Steps can indeed apply to countries like the UK, where it is possible renounce, but a conscientious attempt to do so has not resulted in a confirmation of success before nominating.

    Once that’s resolved then it gets interesting.

  11. lizzie @ #1922 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 12:12 pm

    bemused

    Between American and urban dictionaries and the Oxford and Collins, everything seems to be perfectly correct. 😆

    I use Dictionary.com in the first instance but will resort to any of those you mentioned on occasions.

    Urban Dictionary is interesting and useful, but not very scholarly. 😀

  12. bemused

    Sound like fun?

    Sounds like a Borat script. Thanks to Malcolm Trunbull Kazakhstan can boast of having faster internet speeds than Australia.

  13. Mr X is far from perfect. He sometimes gets things horribly wrong, such as wrongly outing an innocent priest as a paedophile and supporting media law changes to the benefit of Murdoch.

    Yes, he’s a populist, and many believe he really is for the people. He may not be the saviour but he’s more than just a naughty boy. He’s astute, a workaholic and tries to do the right thing. On matters like water for South Australia he’s been a positive influence. He’s not to be compared with the Hansonites and their ilk.

    He is of course a control freak. Each of his candidates for the state election has to pitch $20,000 into the SA Best fighting fund. One who has done so has not been heard of since. It’s thought that’s because she’s a feisty dame and Nick doesn’t know how to control her.

    Still, the more the major parties attack him, he stronger he gets. It will be a fascinating state election.

  14. Vic

    I required their authorisation.

    Yep. That’s her problem.

    ‘Explanation’ on the form filled out by all parliamentarians in December and available on PH site.

  15. bemused @ #1927 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 12:16 pm

    Speaking of Borat and the Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, I heard on the BBC last night that they are dropping the Cyrillic alphabet in favour of the Roman alphabet.

    But wait, it gets worse! Apparently they originally used Arabic script, then at switched to the Roman alphabet, then to the Cyrillic Alphabet and now they are going back to the Roman Alphabet.

    Sound like fun?

    Alphabet and language are particularly identity defining. This defines their wish to be ‘western’ I suppose.

  16. Good morning all,

    The whole ” reasonable steps” issue will get a good working over in coming months and it will be interesting to see what the HC actually comes up with re a clear and definite interpretation.

    Individual cases will still continue to throw up unique circumstances and roadblocks eg Susan Lamb as compared to Kathy Gallagher as compared to anyone else who nominates in future and as a result of some yet unforeseen set of events and or circumstances does not complete their renouncement or renouncement is effective after the required point in time.

    Perhaps the HC will not be able to give a clear and definite decision that will cover all individual cases going into the future and therefore all future nominations will be subject to ongoing election campaign scrutiny by the MSM eager for anything to make some noise.

    Whether the HC can address a ” one size fits all ” solution will be interesting otherwise citizenship issues may be ongoing with the associated tit for tat political point scoring and media hyperventilating as the HC referral merry go round rolls on.

    What would the solution then be ?

    Cheers.

  17. political_alert: NSW Opposition Leader @Luke_FoleyNSW will hold a media conference to comment on Sydney’s trains at 1pm, Martin Place #auspol

  18. John Wren
    John Wren
    @JohnWren1950
    ·
    31m
    Can you imagine the uproar if @7NewsMelbourne was granted exclusive access to a “so-called” Apex gang meeting, then glorified its criminality? They just did this with a white-supremacist neo-Nazi gang, but no-one from @Channel7 management has yet to publicly apologise. #auspol

  19. YaThinkN: Aveo (Retirment Village) advertising on @Channel7 during the #AustralianOpen2018

    #NA7I
    #7HeartsNazis
    #NaziVigilantePromotion
    #Auspol

    twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne…

    7NewsMelbourne: 7 News reporter @jodilee_7 has been granted exclusive access to a secret meeting organised by right wing activists in response to Melbourne’s African youth crime crisis. #7News pic.twitter.com/TBzIOSXody

  20. 7 won’t apologise at this stage. The order it will happen is:

    1) Dutton stirs up racist hatred.

    2) 7 stirs up racist hatred.

    3) One of the neo nazi ‘vigilante’ groups kills an innocent dark skinned person (may or may not even be African).

    4) 7 Apologises.

    5) Dutton points out the death as proof that the African community being there led to violence occurring.

    Expecting 4 before 3 seems to assume channel 7 has a conscience. It will not happen.

  21. doyley says:
    Monday, January 15, 2018 at 12:27 pm
    Good morning all,

    What would the solution then be ?

    Abolition of this neo-imperialist, anti-democratic and xenophobic anachronism.

  22. GG

    They are obviously the opinion of this person and she has made them In a text to someone.
    If she made them to a friend in a private conversation, and they were leaked by this friend, it was a breach of trust that her bigotted and racist opinion was made public. But on the other hand, if you are the partner of the leader of UKIP, the sensible thing would be to keep your opinions private. Of course, unless, the whole point of sending them to someone was expecting it to be leaked.

  23. MikeCarlton01: @7NewsMelbourne @jodilee_7 Coming up next on @7NewsMelbourne: Everyone loves a parade ! We join these happy marching groups for a day’s fun in the sun. pic.twitter.com/mHcRWM54pX

  24. Brendan O’Connor
    @BOConnorMP
    ·
    1h
    This is one of the most obtuse examples of media outlets being played by extremists I’ve seen recently #whoscoopedwho? #auspol
    7 News Melbourne
    @7NewsMelbourne
    Embedded video
    7 News reporter @jodilee_7 has been granted exclusive access to a secret meeting organised by right wing activists in response to Melbourne’s African youth crime crisis. #7News

  25. In SA the Media must repeatedly ask X “what are your Policies” He is an opportunist and the only thing that will be his undoing would repeated demands that he explains what he would do in terms of policy, with appropriate costings.
    He stands for nothing and repeated statements like “I am someone who represents the sensible centre” mean nothing. I have no idea what that means when he votes to cut penalty rates and supports the Federal Government’s changes to Social Security payments.

  26. Lambs mother said Lamb never contacted her, which is almost certainly true, and that she would have given her the certificate which may or may not be true.

    I agree it’s a moot point anyway as she could have gotten the certificate without her mother’s help.

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