Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. If the Sydney Test follows the usual script there’ll be a couple of mm of rain on most days and half the match time will be spent waiting for the covers to be removed.

  2. Ides of March

    UnZud still poorer than ‘Straya but if they can do that then maybe just maybe the locals may come to think it is a better investment than $50 -60 billion in tax breaks for “big bees knees” and all the rest of the rortathon..

  3. If the top end of town paid their proper share of tax and the loopholes about shifting money around the globe to escape paying anything were closed, perhaps you would be able to fund free education.

    Instead we have a govt that wants to cut their tax intake and give a tax cut to those very same companies, and all the while we have a massive debt.

    They are massive dickheads.

  4. Re: HECS/free education

    I don’t have a problem with HECS as it was originally formulated.

    The idea that yes, society as a whole benefits and should contribute significantly to higher education, but that the individuals also benefit and should contribute something in a way that doesn’t act as a barrier to them getting their education.

    Of course there are plenty of lines to be drawn and thresholds that shouldn’t be crossed, and the Libs have certainly been front and centre in squeezing the system as much as they can.

    But the concept of HECS is a good one, and I have certainly paid my share of HECS in my time (though not anywhere near as much as they pay now). We just need to draw those lines and say enough is enough when they try to keep pushing…

  5. Steve777:

    Lots of fighting, but the “Liberals” are the enemy, not those too left wing or not left wing enough.

    Felt this deserved to be repeated.

  6. Yeah, I’ll play nice around the time C@t, briefly , Boerwar , bemused and their flyby supports do. They take active pride in driving off Greens and being asshats. I have no intention of letting them continue to make this place toxic to anyone but their little club without contest.

    I’m pretty sure Dutton will have us all in the coal mines first.

  7. Glad I never bother going to any of the public events on new years eve in Sydney. Now it’s been turned into a paramilitary display by the plod even less reason to. Might just hide indoors in case the terrorists are out. They’re everywhere youse know.

  8. Elaugaufein says:
    Monday, December 18, 2017 at 8:15 pm

    The numbers, the strategies, the tactics all speak for themselves.

    There’s no doubt at all that even though most G-voters are Labor-positive, G-activists despise Labor. From my point of view, the Gs are a bourgeois radical schism who by their deeds have harmed the political and other goals of working people. That they may or may not have set out to do this is beside the point. The results speak for themselves. The Labor plurality built from scratch by the great pioneers of the early 20th century and consolidated by Curtin, Chifley, Whitlam and Hawke has been whittled away by the wedge-games of the Gs and the LNP. To this extent, from Labor’s point of view, the Gs and the LNP are the same. They intend to obstruct Labor. From time to time they combine to achieve that.

    Any G who dreams that Labor will welcome them into some kind of power sharing deal should instead be prepared. This will not happen. It will not happen because such an arrangement is inimical to the interests of Labor’s supporters.

    As your very post illustrates, the naiveté of the Gs is exceeded only by their capacity for indignation.

  9. Zoomster

    Having a degree these days even a law degree does NOT make one highly educated. Back in Whitlam’s time (and Evatt) those with degrees represented less than 2% of the population. Less than 10% completed high school and the majority left school at 14.

    These days not even a Phd would push you into the same category as Whitlam or Evatt or Menzies. Barrister, Professor, Specialist medico or award winning writer is probably the equivalent.

    Once a degree becomes commonplace it loses its brag value.

    I might add that acknowledging that there IS class bias is not disparaging anyone. it is observing reality and trying to make sense of political and voting behaviour.

    Remember this discussion arose out of the wicked evil greens stealing our labor votes stuff which emanates from the three Bs.

  10. Elaugaufein says:
    Monday, December 18, 2017 at 8:47 pm
    Yeah, I’ll play nice around the time C@t, briefly , Boerwar , bemused and their flyby supports do. They take active pride in driving off Greens and being asshats. I have no intention of letting them continue to make this place toxic to anyone but their little club without contest.

    I’m pretty sure Dutton will have us all in the coal mines first.

    That post makes no sense whatsoever to me. Can anyone else work it out?

    I think E. is not happy about some people who post here, but I can’t work out why.

  11. Briefly, posts like the one above make it very difficult to take you seriously on the topic of the Greens.

    Also, why on earth do you insist on referring to them as the “G’s.” What exactly is the lack of the final five letters supposed to prove, anyway?

  12. don @ #461 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 8:53 pm

    Elaugaufein says:
    Monday, December 18, 2017 at 8:47 pm
    Yeah, I’ll play nice around the time C@t, briefly , Boerwar , bemused and their flyby supports do. They take active pride in driving off Greens and being asshats. I have no intention of letting them continue to make this place toxic to anyone but their little club without contest.

    I’m pretty sure Dutton will have us all in the coal mines first.

    That post makes no sense whatsoever to me. Can anyone else work it out?

    I think E. is not happy about some people who post here, but I can’t work out why.

    He is offering to stop lying about us if we stop telling the truth about him and his fellow Greens.

  13. Don

    Do you live in a bubble. The constant and quite vicious attacks on green supporters here coming from the three bs would be amusing if not significant in terms of elections. It is slightly (actually extremely) batty and paranoid. Hardly surprising that Elaufaugin calls them a cabal.

  14. Our economy is growing but the big end of town is keeping the benefits for themselves, often shifting them offshore to hide them from taxes. For many people, the growth is illusory.

  15. My comments on the Gs are neither constant nor vicious. They are occasional, even-tempered and aimed not at G supporters but at G-scheming. The Gs have made it their business to oppose, frustrate, undermine, sledge and deprecate Labor for several decades now. They show no signs of relenting. For mine, there is nothing wrong with describing this for what it is.

    I reckon that as far as WA Labor member, supporters and activists are concerned, my views would not be exceptional.

  16. I do like someone from a party whose vote seems to be plateauing (if not actually going backwards) lecturing people from parties which have actually managed to be in government about how it’s done…

    Of course, had such advice been followed, maybe Labor would never have been in government at all…

  17. Bemused
    Ahh yes, its strange how you can’t tell truth from lies I agree. I suspect it’s related to your terrible comprehension skills.

  18. Perhaps if the Green politicians in the parliament laid off attacking Labor as being the same as the Libs,and all Labor ideas are baaaaad, the kindness may be returned.

    Have the Greens gone the Labor party and said,look, we like your idea about a certain policy can we get together and formulate a bi partisan position that both parties are happy with?
    No.
    The Greens are politicians, they act like politicians,they talk like politicians, they play politics. They want their way on any position, on any issue, and anyone who disagrees is wrong.

    The vast majority of voters of Bennelong , over 90% didn’t vote for the Greens. Their policies were rejected by the electorate. Whose fault is it.?

  19. briefly @ #468 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 9:04 pm

    My comments on the Gs are neither constant nor vicious. They are occasional, even-tempered and aimed not at G supporters but at G-scheming. The Gs have made it their business to oppose, frustrate, undermine, sledge and deprecate Labor for several decades now. They show no signs of relenting. For mine, there is nothing wrong with describing this for what it is.

    I reckon that as far as WA Labor member, supporters and activists are concerned, my views would not be exceptional.

    Yes indeed. I attended the annual function for ALP Life Members in Victoria and there was mention of the Greens was made by our Guest Speaker, Luke Hilakari, Secretary of Trades Hall Council, there was audible murmuring and several very audible derogatory comments.

    The ALP member out of step here is DTT.

  20. @Nicholas

    There should not be any student loans because there should not be any student fees. The full financial cost of education and training at all levels, from the earliest of early childhood education, all the way to doctoral studies, should be covered by the federal government. The social good component of education is so high that there should not be a user charge.

    I could not agree more.

  21. briefly,

    You do understand there is a whole generation of voters under the age of 45 who have never voted ALP or LNP. They are not Liberal-postive or Labor-postive, they are Greens-positive. They are not yuppie wankers, they are not hipsters – they are people who give a shit about refugees, about the environment, about social justice and see the ALP’s small target transactional “we’ll support it if there is a vote in it” for the cynical retail politics that it is.
    I’m in my early 50’s and I voted ALP once in the 1980’s… never again.

  22. Zoomster
    I am yet to direct anything but the most vague and generally agreed upon advice at you or your frenemies. For one thing exerting mental effort on the behalf of people who are a mix of blind self-righteousness and hatred for me and my political party is a waste of my time and effort. I engage with you on the behalf of others who may wish to post here without fearing that they’ll have to face your dog pile alone and without support rather than in any delusion I can sway you.

  23. bakunin @ #477 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 9:14 pm

    briefly,

    You do understand there is a whole generation of voters under the age of 45 who have never voted ALP or LNP. They are not Liberal-postive or Labor-postive, they are Greens-positive. They are not yuppie wankers, they are not hipsters – they are people who give a shit about refugees, about the environment, about social justice see the ALP’s small target transactional “we’ll support it if there is a vote it” for the cynical retail politics that it is.
    I’m in my early 50’s and I voted ALP once in the 1980’s.

    And here was I thinking you were a Russian Revolutionary anarchist, somehow preserved till the present or conveyed here in the Greens Tardis.

    Your words “they are people who give a shit about refugees, about the environment, about social justice” accurately describes the attitudes of most ALP members young and old.

    You really should get out more.

  24. I had half my undergraduate degree free and paid HECS for the second half. And I paid for postgrad. Took ages to do so – it meant I needed to work outside my chosen field for quite a few years until I could afford to pursue my chosen career.

  25. Steve777
    The significance of the Metropolis of Bogan Gate, the outback itself and of course now all the undertones of one’s ‘boganess”.
    The name itself synonymous with the earliest realization that good old England could not be superimposed on the colony and a chance for the original poms to change their identity and become a colonial.
    From that time all new chaps became poms and the colonials, new and presumed, even the new boganista, defined themselves as ‘not poms’ and continues today in the guise of Nationals (Country Party) and good ‘ole’ boys from the bush.
    Mordern day outer suburban ‘bogans’ are a hybrid version of the original myth.
    The link between ‘bogan’ born and bred plays a not insignificant part in the ‘lighthorse’ battalions of WWI.
    Good ‘ole’ Bogan Gate symbolic of the need to fence ourselves in or out. The States, the cities, the regions, the sporting teams, the political parties and of course the backyard adorned in all its glory in the concept of ‘six and out’.
    Take a drive from Forbes to Bogan Gate, Trundle, Tullamore, Albert, Tottenham, Nyngan, Bourke and beyond and forever be altered by the importance of ‘being bogan’ as a defining influence in the inherent Australian character,
    And haven’t I gone completely off the track tonight!

  26. bemused
    “Who is calling for the death of anyone? Hyperbole, much.”
    .
    Stop playing dumb you know damn well what I meant. If not then you really are a brick.

  27. @bakunin

    I’m in my early 50’s and I voted ALP once in the 1980’s… never again.

    Interesting, as I know that most Green’s party members, as opposed to voters (and some of the Greens party members are my very good friends) have almost never voted Labor, including even for Gough Whitlam.

    Who did you vote for before the Greens arrived on the scene in the mid-1990s?

    This is actually an important question. I think that the only way forward for progressive politics is for the Greens and Labor to stop being mortal enemies, and agree to disagree on some things, but to generally form a loose alliance.

    So understanding why you will not vote Labor is important.

  28. They are not yuppie wankers, they are not hipsters – they are people who give a shit about refugees, about the environment, about social justice…

    Yeah, but what have they DONE for refugees, the environment, and social justice?

    Apart from giving a shit about them?

    Greens voted against refugees when they voted against the Malaysian Solution.

    The voted against the environment when they ratted on Labor when Labor most needed them.

    The voted against social justice when they voted to let in the scum of the earth into the Senate.

    To put not too fine a point on it, the Greens are so holier than thou and up themselves that their haloes are coming out their arseholes.

    “Giving a shit” is about 1/10th of the battle.

  29. M4s for NSW Police – keeping up with der ReichsTuber Dutton, or an FU to Katrina Dawson’s family? High-powered long arms are not going to stop non-existent “terrorists” with pistols, knives and trucks, but I suppose they go with the uniform.

  30. Douglas and Milko @ #486 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 9:27 pm

    @bakunin

    I’m in my early 50’s and I voted ALP once in the 1980’s… never again.

    Interesting, as I know that most Green’s party members, as opposed to voters (and some of the Greens party members are my very good friends) have almost never voted Labor, including even for Gough Whitlam.

    Who did you vote for before the Greens arrived on the scene in the mid-1990s?

    This is actually an important question. I think that the only way forward for progressive politics is for the Greens and Labor to stop being mortal enemies, and agree to disagree on some things, but to generally form a loose alliance.

    So understanding why you will not vote Labor is important.

    The Greens are characterised, like the Libs, by a disdain for ordinary working people and lower socio economic groups. And the howls of outrage will not change the facts.

  31. rhwombat @ #489 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 9:31 pm

    M4s for NSW Police – keeping up with der ReichsTuber Dutton, or an FU to Katrina Dawson’s family? High-powered long arms are not going to stop non-existent “terrorists” with pistols, knives and trucks, but I suppose they go with the uniform.

    Well said. I commented on the inappropriateness of such weapons earlier today on similar grounds.

  32. M4s for NSW Police – keeping up with der ReichsTuber Dutton, or an FU to Katrina Dawson’s family?

    Both?

    I think our governments have lost the plot when it comes to terrorism. Talk about overreach. You only have to look to America to see what happens when you arm police with high powered assault weapons!

    I shudder to think what the feds will do under J Edgar Tuber’s watch.

  33. The silliness which breaks out occasionally/regularly on PB between Greens and ALP members/supporters has to be endured I suppose but it is mostly scroll by stuff. It isn’t as though there isn’t plenty of room for serious discussion about the policy positions and political positioning of both – and that could be discussion leading to light rather than heat.

    If we had a first past the post system like UK and USA then there would be more point to the views of BW, briefly, Bemused and others who would rather see the Greens disappear. But with preferential voting people can make sensible choices among minor parties without changing the affect of their vote on who forms government.

    If Greens and Labor can’t find a way to argue without throwing out the baby and bathwater then progressive politics in Australia will be weakened.

  34. As always, love your work, mimhoff.

    El

    I do not hate the Greens. That would be an absurd waste of time and effort (hatred, particularly blind hatred, being like that). They do disappoint me.

    I’m sorry you didn’t like my facts, but were unable to argue against them. I recognise that that almost always leads to lashing out blindly – when you’re driven by emotion rather than reason but can’t admit that to yourself, things do get confusing.

  35. The Greens Party and the PHON are, structurally, one and the same thing.

    They are competing political parties. They both nobble their nearest and dearest parties. They both claim that they are the one true path. And neither has to concern themselves with reality because they never have to exercise power.

  36. Bushfire Bill

    Enough with the BS.

    Tell me is this “Malaysia solution” now part of Labor policy?

    How exactly did the Greens vote against the environment by ratting on Labor?

    And by letting the scum of the earth (One Nation) in, do you imply that it was Labor policy to cynically keep them out? My recall is this was done to reflect the wishes of voters.

    Just in a few words please.

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