Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. (Note: Not an ‘entry’ in ‘Electicity Wars’)

    I believe that the overall bottom line ‘cost’ to the household will never drop.

    The wholesale cost to the supplier might drop but we’ll find that there will be a ‘neat’ justification that the suppliers ‘retail operations’ costs and ‘network’ costs have increased.

    Electricity prices are set to fall across the country over the next two years, offsetting this year’s price increase.

    The Australian Energy Market Commission said the price drop will happen as variable wind and solar generation comes online, which is paid for by the Government’s Renewable Energy Target.

    Nationally, prices rose almost 11 per cent this year, but with the extra supply from wind and solar, the commission predicts that will be offset by a 12 per cent fall over the following two years.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-18/household-electricity-looks-set-to-get-cheaper-from-mid-2018/9266914

  2. (Note: Not an entry in the ‘Electricity Wars’)

    I believe that the overall bottom line ‘cost’ to the household will never drop.

    The wholesale cost to the supplier might drop but we’ll find that there will be a ‘neat’ justification that the suppliers ‘retail operations’ costs and ‘network’ costs have increased.

    Electricity prices are set to fall across the country over the next two years, offsetting this year’s price increase.

    The Australian Energy Market Commission said the price drop will happen as variable wind and solar generation comes online, which is paid for by the Government’s Renewable Energy Target.

    Nationally, prices rose almost 11 per cent this year, but with the extra supply from wind and solar, the commission predicts that will be offset by a 12 per cent fall over the following two years.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-18/household-electricity-looks-set-to-get-cheaper-from-mid-2018/9266914

  3. US-Russia

    Information provided by the CIA helped Russian security services foil an attack on St Petersburg’s Kazan cathedral, the Kremlin says.

    The attack was allegedly planned to take place on Saturday, officials say.

    In a phone call, President Vladimir Putin thanked Donald Trump for the CIA’s intervention, the Kremlin said.

    Mr Putin told Mr Trump that Russia’s special services would hand over information on terror threats to their US counterparts, it added.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42386258

  4. For those who are interested in electricity costs the first 4 pages of this document are elucidating on the various components* of what you are charged.

    ‘Jargon’ is demystified!

    In the attachments (starting at page 14 of the full document) there is one titled ‘Developments in Utilities Prices’ that is also interesting and deals with Gas, Water and Sewerage.

    Most of the other attachments a bit to ‘techie’ for me.

    It’s a pdf file so googling the link should get you a list with ‘HOW ARE ELECTRICITY PRICES SET IN AUSTRALIA?’ as the first listed document –

    https://www.rba.gov.au/information/foi/disclosure-log/pdf/101115.pdf

    * – grimace wrote a number of comments on the various components early in ‘Energy Wars’ that dealt with some of this. They were, for me, the only bits of the ‘war’ that were informative.

  5. a r – For info rather than a ‘bleat’ to fix.

    The C+ page 1 bug of having to use ‘Refresh’ to get new comments (and ‘Load More’ doing zilch) persists.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Mondays are generally slow news days.

    Alexander has apologised for a bizarre anecdote he relayed while claiming victory in the Bennelong byelection, which drew fire from disability advocates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/john-alexander-apologises-after-bizarre-joke-mars-bennelong-victory-speech-20171216-h05y8x.html
    Simon Benson writes that Despite some wins to end the year, including the Bennelong by-election, the Coalition has failed to gain any ground on Labor. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/coalition-trails-labor-but-turnbull-extends-lead-as-preferred-pm/news-story/024e8fb5d66bddde4ae5bf593e3fed10
    A good contribution from Ross Gittins on the need for a healthy public sector.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/a-bigger-better-public-sector-will-secure-our-future-20171216-h05vx3.html
    Adele Ferguson continues to double down on the franchising racket. It’s not at all a pretty pictire!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/its-like-7eleven–claims-underpayment-is-rife-at-rfg-20171213-h04d8n.html
    Greg Jericho says that this year has been about companies and jobs. Will 2018 be about wages?
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/dec/17/this-year-has-been-about-companies-and-jobs-will-2018-be-about-wages
    Phil Coorey tells us that the Nationals have secured their five spots in the Turnbull government’s cabinet despite calls from Liberals that the junior Coalition partner should lose a place in a ministerial reshuffle that could be announced this week. Google.
    /news/nationals-dig-in-as-reshuffle-looms-20171216-h05ymp
    On the face of it Mayor Doyle could be in a spot of bother.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/lord-mayor-robert-doyle-takes-leave-after-sex-harassment-claim-as-councillor-quits-20171216-h05z4x.html
    Urban Wronski on Turnbull’s launch of Yellow Peril 2.0.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/12/17/turnbull-lynches-sam-dastyari-while-invoking-yellow-peril-2-0/
    George Orwell come on down!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/fetus-transgender-diversity-trump-officials-give-us-health-body-a-list-of-forbidden-words-20171216-h05yfq.html
    I think it’s time for Labor and the cross bench to get the gloves off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-facing-as-many-as-four-byelections-in-2018-after-bennelong-win-restores-turnbull-majority-20171216-h05yg0.html
    On occasions Amanda Vanstone writes a good article. This is one of those times.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/next-monday-have-a-cold-hard-look-at-what-really-matters-20171215-h058b0.html
    The SMH editorial implores Australia to act over the Rohingyan plight.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/we-cannot-stand-by-as-the-rohingya-genocide-takes-place-on-our-doorstep-20171217-h063c8.html
    What a mess Myer is in! And it is rumoured that ASIC is having a look at its treatment of intangible assets. Google.
    /business/retail/former-myer-ceo-shares-pain-as-balance-sheet-fears-rise-20171216-h05ysm

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding with Turnbull’s bath time.

    Mark David on Turnbull’s motives.

    Two more good ones from Golding.


    Glen Le Lievre puts the boot into organised religion after the royal commission.

    Mark Knight on the Disney/Fox merger.

    And Knight conflates Holt and Dastyari.

    Pat Campbell and Santa Turnbull in Bennelong.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q
    Jon Kudelka prepares Turnbull for 2018.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3af89c1ed245dda198428d8ec26e8c96

  7. ‘Appropriate criminal process’: Mueller’s office fires back over Kushner emails — and the Trump team is screwed

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office over the weekend shot down Republican complaints that emails from Trump’s transition team — including inner-circle members like Jared Kushner — were illegally provided to investigators.

    In a statement to Buzzfeed early Sunday morning, Mueller’s office rebuked claims that investigators obtained the emails inappropriately.

    “When we have obtained emails in the course of our ongoing criminal investigation, we have secured either the account owner’s consent or appropriate criminal process,” Special Counsel’s Office spokesperson Peter Carr told BuzzFeed News,

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/appropriate-criminal-process-muellers-office-fires-back-over-kushner-emails-and-the-trump-team-is-screwed/

  8. ‘A reckless con man as president’: LA Times burns Trump to the ground in brutal editorial

    Writing in the LA Times, author and human rights activist Ariel Dorfman took the American electorate to task for electing “a reckless con man as president,” adding the country is now facing a reckoning.

    Dorfman admitted that he is tired of hearing about investigations into Russian collusion in the 2016 election of President Donald Trump when the focus should be on how in the hell did American voters let his election happen

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/a-reckless-con-man-as-president-la-times-burns-trump-to-the-ground-in-brutal-editorial/

  9. 53-47 is good given the last two weeks.

    From previous thread, Labor cannot take the next general election for granted.
    My guess is the government will attempt to refer Labor MPs. Talk up a reduced forecast debt figures as a justification for tax cuts, and then if polls soften, race to an election.
    Expect all of the media on their side, perhaps “a messy term that has finished strongly clearly they deserve more time”.

  10. If this is the extent of the bounce the Coalition has gotten from the SSM vote and Dastyari, Turnbull is stuffed. All they’ve managed to do is to shift from historic electoral wipe-out to an average landslide victory to the opposition.

  11. If falling house prices join falling real wages nothing can save the Coalition.

    If both stabilize and/or improve, the Coalition is in with a shot.

  12. CTar1
    Guessimating the pace of change of relevant electricity technology, the price of retail electricity probably will not be the major factor that determines household electricity decision making.
    Many hoseholds will go ‘gridless’ over the next ten years leaving the electricty producers, electricty carriers and regulatory bodies with a set of price detemining factors somewhat different to those existing today.
    Electricity suppliers, now grabbing the coat tails of solar will be investing money in electricity storage.
    Consumers of retail electricty will continue to be charged at rate designed to line the pockets of suppliers and shareholders.
    An Electricity Commission can make a statement but it is just that ……. a statement to suit the times.

  13. Over in the US, Roy Moore is still refusing to concede!

    The winner of the Alabama special election, Senator-elect Doug Jones, says he’s ready to move forward despite Roy Moore’s refusal to concede the race.

    Jones, a Democrat, told CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday morning that he’s “ready to go regardless of whether (Moore) concedes or not.”

    “I say it’s time to move on. Alabama has spoken,” Jones added. “It was a close election, there is no question about that. But, you know, elections can be close sometimes. But now it’s time to heal.”

    (…)

    On Saturday, Moore’s campaign sent out a fundraising email that appeared to bring the integrity of the election into question.

    “This race is not over until the numerous reports of fraud have been investigated, all votes have been counted and the Alabama Secretary of State officially certifies the results,” the email states. The campaign did not offer any evidence of irregularities in the email.

    On Thursday, Moore released a video saying he will not concede the election until the Alabama secretary of state certifies the election, which is scheduled to happen no earlier than December 26 and no later than January 3.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/17/politics/doug-jones-sotu-cnntv/index.html

  14. Heads up on MYEFO and the projected Budget improvement that Morrison and Turnbull will claim as due to their superior economic management.

    Saul Eslake belled the cat on that earlier on ABC News Breakfast. Apparently it’s due to over-the-top assumptions about wages growth of 3% and more! Each year in the Out Years of the Budget.

    And we all know that ain’t gonna happen!

  15. This is so depressing and a weak Turnbull is marching us toward a fascist state.

    We look forward to feeling hugely more secure with the elevation of paranoid Peter Dutton, Australia’s most unpopular, most secretive, least competent minister to a position of unparalleled power in a Home Affairs super-ministry which experts universally expressly warned the Turnbull government never to set up. Expect a show trial next week.

    Given the huge success of the lynching of Sam Dastyari and building on recent AFP union raids to recover ten-year old receipts, the nation can expect to see similarly brilliant strategies deployed against Labor or indeed any other organisation including GetUp! or unions which pose a threat to Liberal rule – or any other outfit or individual whose actions or beliefs may interfere with the enlightened despotism of Menzies’ sensible centre as mediated through Malcolm Turnbull’s top secret Coalition agreement with the Nationals.

    This week has seen the nation take another step into emulating the political dystopia George Orwell warned us about in 1984. The trouble with the Coalition – and their pals in the United States of America is that they think it’s a primer.

    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/12/17/turnbull-lynches-sam-dastyari-while-invoking-yellow-peril-2-0/

  16. Down the rabbit hole with ScoMo.

    Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 36m36 minutes ago

    Listening to MYEFO previews confirms problems with our teaching of maths:
    Say something, government debt, is rising but by less than was once thought, does that mean it is falling? Staggering #myefo

  17. Sad to see the media talking up the idea of the government sending opposition MPs who might be ineligible to the HC while protecting their own who are ineligible.

    It’s not Malcolm’s Renaissance. It’s Australia’s Dark Ages.

  18. Bearing in mind the results of questions re’ Trump visiting the UK the ‘Obama interviews Prince Harry’ thing is a big ‘up yours’ from the British royals!

  19. Mass murder, rape and the burning of kids.
    The Rohingya genocide is effectively ignored by the UN and Australia. All we get are expressions of “concern” by the UN, and by our representative, Julie Bishop. We should be promoting sending in UN troops against this vile regime, instead of training the bastards.
    Apparently, the idea behind Australian military training was to “engage” with this vile regime. Well that worked out well, didn’t it.
    All international assets of the generals should be frozen, then the UN should round the criminals up and ship them off to the Hague; this is what Australia should be promoting, not “constructive engagement”. Aung San Suu Kyi should be stripped of her Nobel Peace Prize.

  20. Morning all

    As Boerwar commented, if housing market stalls and wages continue to flatline, the coalition will find it difficult going forward.

    From what I have gleaned auction results are starting to show a stall in the ppty market. After the huge boom, it was to be expected.

  21. It is just as well the Greens Party Government is in power and not the Coalition.

    Otherwise the Rohingya would be suffering from genocide.

    At current rates of progress only another century to go before the Greens Party Government has power instead of powerlessness.

  22. Turnbull trying to secure his position.

    Dutton has been given his Police/Security conglomerate and now he’s throwing ‘fish’ to Joyce.

    Phil Coorey tells us that the Nationals have secured their five spots in the Turnbull government’s cabinet despite calls from Liberals that the junior Coalition partner should lose a place in a ministerial reshuffle that could be announced this week.

    Google.

    /news/nationals-dig-in-as-reshuffle-looms-20171216-h05ymp

  23. Golly
    Owners of rooftop solar and, increasingly, batteries will become a major political force which will push for peer to peer trading in electricity using systems such as Power Ledger. Thus the big retailers will be cut out of the loop, energy production and trading will become truly democratic, and prices will come down.

  24. CNN Politics
    6 hrs ·
    Alabama Sen.-elect Doug Jones has a message for Roy Moore, saying “It’s time to move on. Alabama has spoken.” http://cnn.it/2k8lBXR

    Roy Moore is refusing to concede and is still fundraising telling his supporters that the battle isn’t over, that Jones’ win was fraudulant and based on voter fraud.

    😮

  25. Mid year economic bull shit from Morrison will also include spurious projections and faux graphs telling all and sundry how catastrophic things have been, are, and always will be under Labor.

  26. Nothing to see here, just Annie Oakley up in Sydney for shoot hoot night. I don’t get shooting. I just don’t get it. It was always intended to kill, and being good at killing doesn’t cut it with me.

    Senator McKenzie has now sought to justify the travel because of her role as chair of the Parliamentary Friends of Shooting group – but parliamentary friendship groups are informal bodies that do not come with any public spending entitlements.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-deputy-bridget-mckenzie-charged-taxpayers-to-attend-shooting-awards-20171216-h05vqh.html

  27. Donna‏ @simpsubhswf · Dec 16

    Sadly about 10% of the votes I scrutinised in #Bennelong were invalid. About half of those because people didn’t know how to vote correctly. @AusElectoralCom needs to spend some time educating people on how to cast a valid vote. People don’t understand how preferences work

  28. I believe that the overall bottom line ‘cost’ to the household will never drop.

    The overall bottom line cost did drop in real terms for a very long time. There is no reason why it can’t do it again, even with an increase in renewable generation.

    There have been price spikes when we go through investment cycles. These have revolved around changes to government policy, rather that market or technology costs. For example, building interconnections between the states in the 90s, and harmonising distribution network standards over the last decade (leading to the claims of “gold plating”). Generation is about to go through a big cycle of reinvestment, as old coal plants shut down and are replaced by mainly renewables.

    The catch is that the technical services provided in excess by conventional machine are becoming scarce in the system. This is inertia, fast frequency response, ramping, etc. If the power system were a ship, this stuff would be its ballast.

    Given the upcoming shortage of these services, and under the market paradigm, they should to be given a price to encourage new ways of providing them. The market structures and other governance arrangements for this are the responsibility of AEMC. John Pierce is not doing his job, by sitting back and saying “someone needs to do something” to manage these changes – it is his organisation that needs move! The work around the place is that he’s approaching retirement and doesn’t want to start any new big work packages….

    I have more opinions on this too 🙂

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