BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor

A quiet week for national polling leaves Malcolm Turnbull looking a little bit better on personal approval, but a little bit worse on voting intention.

In a week where only Essential Research reported a national voting intention result, BludgerTrack records a tick to Labor – although it’s actually due to me finally being able to add last fortnight’s ReachTEL to the mix, for which I hadn’t previously been able to get full primary vote numbers, and which was actually a bit of a shocker for the Coalition by the pollster’s standards. As for the state breakdowns, all I can really offer at the moment is apologies for how screwy the Queensland numbers are looking. Whether because of state election static, or simply a freakish accumlation of outliers over a very short period, six of the last seven results I have from Queensland have the Coalition primary vote at 30% or below, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election. It will be interesting to see what we get from the Newspoll quarterly aggregation, which should be along in a week or two. Essential had its montly leadership ratings this week, which have givenn Malcolm Turnbull a bit of a lift. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor”

  1. A question if I may.

    What happened in the US this weekend?

    All the talk of the sky falling in and twitter going crazy on Friday, did anything actually happen over there? 🙂

  2. Diog, good advice. Thanks.

    But if it’s free – anyone can write up a letter to the CEO – then it becomes a hobby. If it means the odd trip back and forth to Sydney to attend proceedings or meetings, then I’m quite happy to do that.

    Already the auditing angle has been suggested.If you can’t get them via legal processes, get them into trouble over unauthorized alterations to the record. It’san interesting idea.

    I don’t mind saying I’d like to make some trouble, if only just as payback for the trouble they have caused us, and in particular my wife. It’dbe troublenot for itsown sake, but for the sake of justice.

    Sounds high falutin’ I know, but it’s not really. I just like to see bullies punished. We have kept all documentation, have every file and letter, email, and even recordings of meetings. Our documentation is comprehensive. And if it saves some other poor bastard the trouble we’ve been through it’ll be worth it.

    We had a kind of win. We got out with our necks intact, but most don’t. You have to know that you can fight them on their own terms and have at least a chance of winning. That’s the justice game.

  3. Geoffrey

    i have consistently arguing one direction here for many years so deserve .. most folk here now seem like as you

    You might be more effective if you expressed your arguments in prose rather than what appears to be some kind of beat poetry.

  4. Rudd won an election something Shorten is yet to do.Opposition leaders run with the cards they are dealt.

    Howard gave Rudd the gift of work choices, without that Rudd loses like Beazley and Latham before him..

    Labor gave Abbott the gift of a carbon tax, without that he would never have got anywhere near the lodge

    Shorten is getting a rails run from all the infighting in the coalition If that dies down I just don’t see a work choices or carbon tax type gift falling into his lap.

    The coalition still have a pre election budget up their sleeve and it will be crafted with one aim in mind, getting re elected.It will not be an ideological document like the first Abbott budget, you can bet on that.

  5. BB
    I thought about revenge and how much to exact for ages. I got quite a lot of satisfaction but my adversary was never publicly shamed.
    I read a saying that a man going out to seek revenge should first dig two graves. I kept all the correspondence from various bodies and they may still come out as part of a story in January.
    Best of luck with it. You learn an awful lot doing it and hopefully can help others going through similar problems which is probably the best form of revenge you can get.

  6. Barney in Go Dau @ #218 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 11:49 pm

    A question if I may.

    What happened in the US this weekend?

    All the talk of the sky falling in and twitter going crazy on Friday, did anything actually happen over there? 🙂

    Is it this, maybe?

    Lawyers representing the Trump presidential transition wrote to members of Congress accusing special counsel Robert Mueller of obtaining unauthorized access to tens of thousands of transition emails, including what they claim to be documents protected by attorney-client privilege.

    The transition maintains the documents were its property and should not have been handed over without its approval.

    The emails in question involve 13 transition officials, including four senior ones, according to the letter.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/16/politics/special-counsel-robert-mueller-transition-emails-letter/index.html

    Apparently Trump is angry that Mueller got a bunch of his e-mails without going through the official channels of Wikileaks and Putin.

  7. CKoP,

    The problem is, Turnbull has spent the past year trying to get a Newspoll win. The first budget of this term, which is supposed to be the one that gets all the hard stuff done and sets you up for the election year budget… looked like an election year budget.

    That was the week Turnbull and Morrison said ‘fair’ more often than they have for the rest of their lives. It obviously didn’t play well in the focus groups, because it was soon dropped.

    What Turnbull needs is inflation that brings wage rises and makes people feel good again, but the problem with that is we have rather a lot of housing debt, which will be very sensitive to interest rate rises.

  8. Cheers a r,

    Doesn’t sound like it, but interesting none the less.

    Obviously “fake” news if it didn’t go through those approved channels! 🙂

  9. The thing is 47 -53 is not that bad especially as mid term newspolls have a “shy tory” factor you have to account for.People who flirt with voting Labor but don’t actually do it when push comes to shove.

    Take a good look at Labor federal polling when they have been in opposition.They poll a lot better nid term than they do when the big dance comes around.Even Rudd didn’t end up winning by the quelling kind of margin the pre campaign polling suggested he would.

    Federal elections are a tough gig for Labor, they don’t win many. Hawke and Keating had a good run but that was a very very right wing Labor government,It would be a very foolish player who would back Labor at the current odds.

  10. geoffrey:

    i have consistently arguing one direction here for many years so deserve .. most folk here now seem like as you say ‘newbies’

    It’s not your ‘argument’ that made me think you might be Wayne; but rather, the repetitive nature of your posts over the last couple of pages and the lack of capital letters plus grammatical mistakes.

  11. Turnbull’s other problem is that nobody has a clear idea of what he stands for. That’s the direct effect of his quick-fix, poll-conscious approach to governing. Because there is no consistency, a reliable pattern doesn’t appear.

    Even Trump has a predictable pattern of behaviour. Turnbull’s pattern is scattered. One day he takes a backseat on ME, the next day he’s taking the credit. One day it’s all about what’s ‘fair’, then it’s how important company tax cuts are (and giving the rich back the ‘deficit levy’). He’s also crapping on renewable energy and boosting coal like an Abbott die hard, but he want’s Abbott to go away. Then he’s lecturing Sam about being too close to China, then pointing out his grand daughter is half Chinese. He’s also a Elizabethan half-Republican. He has many varied views on increasing the GST and State income taxes. He regards himself as an optimistic futurist while nobbling the NBN… (I can’t keep up)

    I’ll stop there because I can’t type quickly enough while I’m remembering it all.

  12. Jolyon Wagg:

    You might be more effective if you expressed your arguments in prose rather than what appears to be some kind of beat poetry.

    I think that is beyond these ‘kind’ of bots at this point in time.

  13. CKoP,

    You may be right, I don’t claim to have a crystal ball. However, I do think you are wilfully ignoring the point that the government have spent the first year of the term throwing the kitchen sink at their polling, instead of governing. Howard. didn’t. do. that.

    EDIT: Also, there was no ‘narrowing’ at the last campaign. No ‘shy Tory’. The polls seem to have figured that out.

  14. Question:

    Turnbull’s other problem is that nobody has a clear idea of what he stands for. That’s the direct effect of his quick-fix, poll-conscious approach to governing. Because there is no consistency, a reliable pattern doesn’t appear.

    Nice summary in that post of MalFunction. The only people duped by him still surely are those who pay no attention to politics or give it no critical thought, and who somehow still fall for his ‘respectable’ used car salesman veneer.

  15. This is a terrible tragedy. Rory took his own life. Rory and MOH were pretty close.

    There will be a memorial at The Riverside Theatre Parramatta on Friday 22nd at 11 am.

    In a rare move, O’Donoghue’s family revealed that he had taken his own life after struggling with mental illness for many years.

    “We hope that by sharing this we can bring more awareness to the serious issue of mental illness and that we can support those in need,” his daughter Jessica wrote on Facebook.

    “He touched so many people with his light and talent. He was surrounded by so much love, it’s such a tragedy that his illness prevented him from feeling it.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/rory-odonoghue-brought-multiple-talents-to-aunty-jack-show/news-story/617b79bef4d297f195889293426ad9ee

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