Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. bw

    They’re bull shitting their heads off. I’m more concerned the punters don’t seem to know they’re lying in large enough numbers.

  2. mikehilliard @ #946 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 3:05 pm

    Barnaby isn’t qualified to run the local pub chook raffle let alone the infrastructure portfolio. He won’t be able to help himself from pushing things his mates way, as is evident from past performance. My hope is a future ICAC locks him away forever.

    That’s why you have the public serv……

    Oh sh!t !!!!!!

  3. Paul Keating was hounded about having shares in a pig farm, until eventually he had to sell his shares. Dastyari was hounded because of some indiscretions re China, nothing illegally. Sinidonus is given a free run for all the indiscretions re NSW Water and being a bag man, that is being Treasurer for the Libs and Director of a company donating money to the Libs, says he cant remember. Stood to make millions. Gets away with it. I suppose now that Barnaby Joyce is moved from “Water” will not have to answer for the debacle he has done with the Murray/Darling and the shameless water giveaways.
    The Media need to get their act together, as really we are losing our Democracy. They must treat both sides of politics the same.


  4. Libertarian Unionist says:
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 at 5:14 pm

    P1, in very short, yes.

    In short, those synchroverter topologies make assumptions about linear grid response, PLL delays and constant DC bus voltages that are hard to meet in practice. The main risk is that frequency stability is maintained by inducing voltage collapse, aka cascading system failure. Plus no-one is sure how many of these controllers will interact.

    The long version is a few doctoral degrees worth of network control theory

    Lets be honest LU; the network is becoming very non linear very quickly; and when it comes to non linear systems our maths is worth, close to zip.

    How many systems can model a battery with a very non linear response; a time constant shorter than any other generator controller on the network and the power to cause voltage instability as it tries to control frequency.

    I’m dam sure the software I use can’t do it; and I’m dam sure I don’t know the solution.

    This is the issues that policy should be looking at; not the niceness or otherwise of a lump of coal.

  5. Right men. Gather around while I tell you my plans.

    Firstly, arriving on the milk train tonight is the fastest gun in the land. You’ll be able to tell him at a glance. He’s the most handsomest dude you ever did see. He carries his gun in his hat and he has his notches on his bank account.

    Now you all know that the town fathers rejected our clever plans to advance our welfare. Well, boys, we are going to prove them wrong this time around. All the brilliantly conceived changes that were completely rejected by a wrong headed public are the same plans we are going with today.

    Now, hold the applause. The clever bit is we tell them that its the Marshall’s fault for the drunkenness and hooliganism. The Marshall that supported the sheep herders against the Cattlemens Association and brought ruin to the range.

    We own the saloon and on election day we get the voters so drunk they won’t know what they are doing and we will forge their marks on the voting papers.

    Can anybody see any way this plan can go wrong this time? No. OK. Then, if by some mischance we lose out we turn the Kid loose. A few extra funerals and places in boot hill will sort out the locals.

    Right now, back to our secret hideout in the Prince’s mansion. Nobody will think to find us there.

    Let us close with a prayer. Baldy will lead us with something in his well known “tongues” and will then sing “bury me not on the lone prairie”. 😇😇

  6. KJ

    Firstly, arriving on the milk train tonight is the fastest gun in the land. You’ll be able to tell him at a glance. He’s the most handsomest dude you ever did see. He carries his gun in his hat and he has his notches on his bank account.

    If I’m reading you correctly I agree, it is a bit like the wild west.

    Perhaps a Blazing Saddles moment is required.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upvZdVK913I

  7. mikehilliard (Block)
    Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 7:58 pm
    Comment #958

    I swear I saw Kim Beazley in the clip and a couple of others have jumped back to a time even prior to 1955. How do they do it?

    I think the current, what passes for an ordinary incompetent government. is trying to prove that business – you know:- doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result wrong and the result will shine like a thousand blazing suns.

    Perhaps with variations.
    F’rinstance. “Work Choices” will now become “Choices for Work”.
    “Dole Bludgers” will become “Dole Leaners” and so on and on and on……….

  8. MH @7:11PM: They’re bull shitting their heads off.

    Just a minor correction. “Bullshitting” is one word. It’s also a bit ambiguous. Are there large numbers of them lying, or large numbers of lies? Actually, I think it’s large numbers of punters. No matter, all are true.

  9. [Sinodinus] is given a free run for all the indiscretions re NSW Water and being a bag man, that is being Treasurer for the Libs and Director of a company donating money to the Libs, says he cant remember.

    Labor when it resumes office needs a few targeted Royal Commissions and other enquiries. The Dark Side knows their enemies and attacks ruthlessly. Labor needs to do likewise, at least to start with. There are lots of dodgy deals, lots of rocks to turn over, lots of dark corners needing sunlight. Put a few “Liberals” and Nationals in jail if possible, or at least bring down their rising stars. Nothing more for Rupert, damage or bring down Newscrap if possible. That’s what the enemy dies to unions and other class enemies.

    No more Mr Nice Guy.

  10. What Royal Commissions?

    1. Energy / Climate policy. Regardless of any political imperative, this is a God-awful mess screaming out for close examination. Side excursions will include shining a light on the whole Adani saga, but there’s so much much more. Delve into the relationship between Big Coal and its agents in Parliament.

    2. The NBN disaster. Gross incompetence and worse to be revealed I’m sure. Possible damage to Newscrap is a bonus.

    3. A proper enquiry into the whole Sydney Water business. Lots of scalps there.

    No doubt the list can be expanded…

  11. More Royal Commissions:
    . Murray Darling
    . Manus Island and Nauru
    . AFP raids (Conroy, AWU) and political interference
    . National Security leaks
    . Multinational tax avoidance
    . Franchise industry (resulting in underpayment of staff)
    . [edit] National Security laws
    The problem is the sheer number that can be justified (at least to my partisan eyes)

  12. RC to recommend new media laws including Canada-like truth requirements, limits to media ownership, guaranteed independence and funding for the ABC, etc.

  13. David
    How where the pigs funded? I’m sure what ever it was the Libs lied.
    Yes many RC that can be done. Or maybe just the one on how the LNP governed since 2013 and cost the tax payers so much waste.

  14. I see Joyce has been appointed Infrastructure Minister in the reshuffle …

    … I’ve been keeping half an eye on the Inland Rail project, and the recent hand wringing over
    where to place the new track that will run through the Darling Downs. Frankly, those farmers around Yelarbon and Warwick worried about losing a few of their valuable acres just aren’t seeing the big picture.

    Nope, not when there are all those towns in Parkes and Maranoa in desperate need of pork barrelling. Humble townsfolk of Tibooburra, White Cliffs, Bourke, Lightning Ridge, Birdsville, Quilpie, Thargomindah, Cunnamulla … your train to the future is about to pull in, and Barnaby is at the controls.

    Putting the “Inland” into Inland Rail Link. You know it makes sense!

  15. The LNP know how to play rough, of course with the help of the media, it is easy for them.

    Labor don’t have major media organisations boosting and running interference for them, ready to serve as their propaganda unit during election campains, so Labor can’t simply copy Abbott’s tactics, for example. Labor has to work smarter.

    Calling out “Liberal” lies, calling them what they are, would be a start.

  16. Trog Sorrenson @ #783 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 1:29 pm

    The Australian Energy Market Operator has kicked off a ground-breaking major new study in how to plan for Australia’s future grid, and in doing so has effectively thrown down the gauntlet to the government on its climate and technology assumptions.

    In a discussion paper released on Tuesday in the first step of putting together an Integrated System Plan (ISP) by the middle of 2018, AEMO says the future grid will be dominated by wind, solar, and battery and other storage, and it time to put together a co-ordinated plan.

    AEMO is also dialling in emission reductions cuts far beyond that contemplated by the federal government – including a “fast track” scenario that doubles climate ambition by 2030. The long-term emission cuts are assumed to be 70 per cent and 90 per cent in 2050.

    Hope you are still around, Trog.

    I realize you didn’t read the article you referred to, nor do you probably care what it actually said. But just so you know, the Integrated System Plan proposal looks suspiciously like an expensive boondoggle. How can I tell? Well, for one thing, I read it.

    But rather than expect you to wade through all of it, I will just put up a couple of small items for you to consider …

    Address and due date for submissions
    AEMO is seeking email submissions from all persons interested in the development of an Integrated System Plan. If you would like to make a submission, please email it to ISP@aemo.com.au. AEMO recognises that this consultation is taking place over the holiday period, however, the timing and extent of work required to deliver the ISP in mid-2018 present exceptional circumstances. Stakeholder input to modelling (questions 1.1 and 1.2) must be received by 2 February 2018 to be incorporated.

    Did you get that? the AEMO released a proposal for the biggest change our electricity industry could possibly undergo anytime in the next 50 years a week before Christmas, and want responses back before anyone is even back from their Christmas holidays … because of “exceptional circumstances”.

    This is a classic example of how to pretend you are taking an impartial approach – even inviting public input – when you intend to do pay no attention to it and have probably already determined the outcome you intend to produce. This outcome is hinted at in the scenarios the AEMO have chosen to model – and the outcome is not necessarily good news for anyone other than the existing electricity generators. One outcome of the ISP is likely to be a massive increase in investment in the transmission network, which would be “required” to support future distributed variable renewables. You have decried the transmission network upgrade required to make Snowy 2.0 a reality – well, the upgrades described in this document make that look utterly trivial by comparison! Another outcome is likely to be to “lock in” the continued use of coal in that network, even in the face of an increased penetration of said renewables – one serious possibility is even to extend the use of coal beyond its current 50 year horizon:

    It may be effective to continue operating some of the existing coal generation fleet beyond 50 years, but a continued influx of wind and PV generation could also impact the revenue sufficiency of coal generation,
    leading to earlier withdrawal. In either case, the scale, location, and timing of coal generation withdrawals over the coming decades will be key drivers of new generation and transmission development for the foreseeable future.

    There are also various parts of the document that indicate the ISP might lead to an increased use of gas generation. I’m sure you will be astounded at this, but anyone who has followed the issue closely will not be. It was always likely.

    And what was your take on all this? Well, they didn’t mention “baseload”, so the whole thing must be positive for renewables! What a dill you are.

  17. And speaking of railway lines, it was interesting to observe, when it came out blinking into the light, just how far along plans were for the Adani project, even though we were under the impression that it was nowhere near getting final approval.

    DownerEDI had been contracted for 2 years already to go to work on the minesite!

  18. WHITE TRASH ALERT!!

    CNN Politics
    2 hrs ·
    A disagreement between Sarah Palin’s eldest son, Track Palin, and his father turned violent when Track broke a window to gain entry to his parents’ house and then assaulted his father, according to court records.

  19. Ok so Barnaby gets Infrastructure and Transport but McVeigh gets Regional Development

    Does this imply that DIRD (Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development) will get split/reorganised?

  20. AR:

    She’s pretty much irrelevant nowadays anyways. I think even the most hardened Republicans recognise she’s cooked.

    That bizarre Trump endorsement prior to the election was her undoing.

  21. P1,

    Did you get that? the AEMO released a proposal for the biggest change our electricity industry could possibly undergo anytime in the next 50 years a week before Christmas, and want responses back before anyone is even back from their Christmas holidays … because of “exceptional circumstances”.

    Everyone inside the tent, and astute observers outside it, can see that the “exceptional circumstances” referred to are the Govt’s ham-fisted NEG proposal and its timelines.

    Industry is sick of this Govt’s dicking around and are lining up their ducks. Audrey Z is calling the shots, and the ENA has also finally got its shit together. The wave of consensus from industry will be overwhelming. AGL’s Liddell move was a shot across the bow.

    From my PoV, it’s *interesting* to observe how truly appalling policy has brought disparate interests together.

  22. Couple of interesting tidbits I picked up from Twitter.

    *Apparently, David Littleproud is a cousin of that guy in NSW, Chris Stone, who oversaw the MDB water theft!

    * The reason so many Queensland LNP MPs from nowhere got a lift straight into Cabinet was because the Queensland LNP MPs were threatening to split from the rest of the Nationals, so as to force their way into the Cabinet wrt their numbers!

    No wonder Turnbull has the confected confidence dialled up to eleventy! He’s barely holding it all together!

  23. Energy Networks Aus

    C@t,
    Apparently, David Littleproud is a cousin of that guy in NSW, Chris Stone, who oversaw the MDB water theft!

    Well, that is interesting…

  24. daretotread @ #987 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 11:54 pm

    Anyone else having a problem with google Chrome.

    Mine keeps freezing.

    Not sure if it is chrome or my PC

    Just turned on my Windows 10 “Chrome” to check.

    Chrome has self updated from
    V63.0.3239.84 (64 bit)
    to
    V63.0.3239.108 (official build)(64 bit)

    and appears to be running smoothly.

    I’ll have another look later in the morning to check.


  25. KayJay

    Anyone else having a problem with google Chrome.

    Mine keeps freezing.

    The sad truth; it is one of the ads served on the poll bludger site; turn ad blocker on and it goes away.

  26. Ex-NSA analyst explains why Americans should be terrified by Clapper’s claims about Trump

    James Clapper’s suggestion that President Donald Trump was a Kremlin “asset” should be taken seriously, according to a former National Security Agency analyst and counterintelligence officer.

    Trump’s relationship to Russia has long been the subject of suspicion within the intelligence community in which Clapper served more than 50 years.

    “To be perfectly clear: America’s most experienced spy boss publicly termed our president an asset — that is, a witting agent — of the Kremlin who is being controlled by Vladimir Putin,” Schindler wrote. “Even if meant only ‘figuratively,’ this is the most jaw-dropping statement ever uttered about any American president by any serious commentator.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/ex-nsa-analyst-explains-why-americans-should-be-terrified-by-clappers-claims-about-trump/

  27. New York Times rips Trump and GOP lawmakers for ‘feathering their own nests’ with tax bill

    In a scathing editorial, the New York Times tore into President Donald Trump and GOP lawmakers for “feathering their own nests,” with a tax plan that will increase their personal fortunes while devastating the middle class.

    “The biggest winners would be people like Mr. Trump, his family and similarly advantaged developers who make tens or hundreds of millions of dollars every year on swanky office towers and luxurious apartment buildings,” the editorial details.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/new-york-times-rips-revolting-trump-and-gop-lawmakers-for-feathering-their-own-nests-with-tax-bill/

  28. “The M4 Rifle is a Terribly Flawed Weapon” | Range365

    https://www.range365.com/m4-rifle-is-terribly-flawed-weapon

    May 22, 2017 – So said a major general to the Senate Armed Services committee, adding that the “American penchant for arming troops with lousy rifles has been responsible for a staggering number of unnecessary deaths.” Here is an example of an M4A1 carbine with an ACOG sight. web photo. It looks like the U.S. …

    A really interesting couple of articles.

    Can anybody inform me of the heightened terrorist threat?

    Could it be that the heavy machinery and the hard working council blokes doing concrete work in my street are really dirty commies, vicious religious zealots, chinese undercover agents or perhaps, foolish children enamored of youtube and movie violence hell bent on blowing up the next bus into town?

    I await with keen interest the first patrol of gun fighter style equipped para military troops, gimlet eyed and of ferocious visage knocking on my door, perchance to enquire about the empty house on the opposite corner.

    What will be the procedure? Salute? Kneel in prayer? Making a run for it would appear out of the question as a 5.56mm round in the back would put paid to Christmas dinner unless as often happens with the M4 rifle, the damn thing jams.

    I think I need to work out a plan. Raising my bed about 20 centimetres may be my best bet as this would allow space for me, brown bear and any yellow skinned demons or mussis (what is a mussi>) also seeking refuge.

    Advise from folk au fait with this problem eagerly awaited.

    Yours faithfully,

    Bruce 😇
    (note the cleverly disguised signature). I was thinking of using “Boris” but decided the risk was just too great.

  29. Libertarian Unionist @ #983 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 11:11 pm

    Everyone inside the tent, and astute observers outside it, can see that the “exceptional circumstances” referred to are the Govt’s ham-fisted NEG proposal and its timelines.

    Yes, that’s the impression I got. But those “inside the tent” – i.e. the current owners of generators and transmission infrastructure – are not necessarily interested in shutting down coal-fired generation any faster than they have to.

    And they certainly don’t want anyone “outside the tent” having any input at all.

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