Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. BHP does its sums and decides that commercial reality trumps RW ideology.

    Australian mining giant BHP is set to pull out of the World Coal Association and is threatening to leave the Minerals Council of Australia over differences on climate change policy.

    The company has published a 22-page report outlining key climate and energy policy differences between it and several of the lobby groups it is a member of.

    The review has found material differences between BHP’s position and the position of the Minerals Council of Australia (MCA), the US Chamber of Commerce and the World Coal Association (WCA).

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-19/bhp-threatens-minerals-council-withdrawal/9271472

  2. Imaging those poor buggers in the Innovation Department when they found out Michaelia was their new boss!
    I cannot contemplate having to work for that woman.

  5. Heard Malcolm on the car radio response to a question ‘when are emissions coming down?” He waffled on about how good they look per capital (our targets are for total not per capita) then said how we had to avoid the “mess South Australia bit in last year” I shouted “stop lying $&!” At the radio (he didn’t hear me, nor anyone else since I was alone in the car) and switched to a music station (golden oldies – showing my age).

    But seriously, this business about the South Australian storm is repeated ad infinitum as an excuse for doing nothing and is never challenged. Maybe it’s the towering authority of electrical engineering expert Chris Uhlmann, I don’t know. The outages in SA were caused by extreme weather, the fact that the major lines were broken and because it wasn’t profitable for the operator to turn on their gas-fired station. But no, “Renewables cause blackouts” is being regarded as an unchallenged “fact”.

  11. Since today’s Newspoll was released, Ladbrokes (in the sidebar) now has an improvement for Labor and X.

    NEXT SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ELECTION
    Labor
    $1.95
    Liberal
    $1.95
    SA Best
    $5.50

  13. Reshuffle was all about appeasing the various factional interests, and not about getting competent people in areas they will do well.

    About the only person that got what their aptitude warranted was Brandis.

  14. Albo doing intellectual combat with an unarmed man? Not much fun in that.

    Actually, in all seriousness, we may finally get the debate about Infrastructure, For the Public Benefit V For Private Business Benefit, that we need to have.

  16. Voice Endeavour @ #911 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 1:05 pm

    Reshuffle was all about appeasing the various factional interests, and not about getting competent people in areas they will do well.

    About the only person that got what their aptitude warranted was Brandis.

    Yes, having failed his way as high as he could in Government, he has seamlessly failed his way into a plum diplomatic posting.

    Who knew failure could be so good? 🙂

  19. I shouted “stop lying $&!” At the radio (he didn’t hear me, nor anyone else since I was alone in the car) and switched to a music station (golden oldies – showing my age).

    This points out the congenital deafness and imperviousness of the Great Australian Dickhead to insult, loud noise, flash bangs, reason/rationality or other normal means of attracting attention.

    I have tried shooting the TV/radio with my very finest cap guns. I have use my flash paper igniter. I have threatened to dance naked by the light of the silvery moon chanting obscene and horrible curses. Nothing stops the G.A.D. (obviously “Great Australian Dickhead”).

    Others more advance in the occult and black arts may have advise to assist the posters here virtually pleading, nay, begging for assistance.

    Please help. Reward offered for G.A.D. scalps. Please send to

    Dodgy Brothers and KayJay Enterprises.

    C/- Mr. W. Bowe party and entertainment supplies. 😨 😵

  20. P1, in very short, yes.

    In short, those synchroverter topologies make assumptions about linear grid response, PLL delays and constant DC bus voltages that are hard to meet in practice. The main risk is that frequency stability is maintained by inducing voltage collapse, aka cascading system failure. Plus no-one is sure how many of these controllers will interact.

    The long version is a few doctoral degrees worth of network control theory

  25. bemused @ #921 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:16 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #915 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:07 pm

    Voice Endeavour @ #912 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:05 pm

    Reshuffle was all about appeasing the various factional interests, and not about getting competent people in areas they will do well.

    ….

    LNP and ALP both the same.

    And Greens wonder why ALP people here get pissed off when your talking parrot keeps popping up with his stale attack lines on the ALP.

    When you stop foaming how about debating the point…?

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 at 5:16 pm
    Lots more Conservative Christians in the new Turnbull Ministry. Wonder how that will affect policy formulation?

    It does seem that the RW are slowly but surely pulling Turnbull in their direction. With the government almost certainly heading for a large election loss, policy formulation will probably reflect a go-for-broke attitude to try and get their ideas implemented as soon as possible.

    The IPA and associates will be ramping up their lobbying right now.

  29. Rex Douglas @ #925 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:22 pm

    bemused @ #921 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:16 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #915 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:07 pm

    Voice Endeavour @ #912 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:05 pm

    Reshuffle was all about appeasing the various factional interests, and not about getting competent people in areas they will do well.

    ….

    LNP and ALP both the same.

    And Greens wonder why ALP people here get pissed off when your talking parrot keeps popping up with his stale attack lines on the ALP.

    When you stop foaming how about debating the point…?

    You have no point and I get more sense out of an indoor plant.

  30. You have to have rocks in your head to think Lab and Lib are the same.

    NBN – The liberals have fundamentally changed it from a high performance future proof infrastructure to a complete basket case, that will require alot more money to fix, this alone has been a huge loss to Australia’s future prosperity.

    Climate Change – We had a ETS, that the Libs have totally trashed, and with that has created so much uncertainty in the energy sector, that we are all paying very dearly for in higher energy prices.

    Education- Goes without saying the Lib’s continue to trash it with cuts every budget.

    Health- Once again the Libs are always trying to trash medicare, they certainly were against it from the start.

  31. Marine Parks, genuine Murray-Darling process, Land Clearing controls, commitment to phasing out coal; of course Labor and Liberal are same-same! (insert sarcasm emoji if needed for comprehension).

  32. The Andrews and Turnbull governments have clashed repeatedly over Victoria’s small share of infrastructure spending.

    But as infrastructure minister, Mr Chester helped to break the impasse over almost $1.5 billion of funds Canberra owed to Victoria for privatising Melbourne’s port.

    Mr Pallas said the demotion was further evidence of the Sydney-centricity of the Turnbull government, which now has a prime minister, treasurer, urban infrastructure minister and transport minister from NSW.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/andrews-pallas-furious-after-turnbull-dumps-loyal-victorian-from-cabinet-20171219-h07bzx.html

  33. Jackol+Nicko

    Rex was “same same” about this—-
    “Reshuffle was all about appeasing the various factional interests, and not about getting competent people in areas they will do well”—
    When it comes to the need to appease various factions and the appointment to various positions then they are pretty “same same” .

  34. The Senate is reportedly probing former presidential candidate Jill Stein for possible collusion with Russia.

    The head of the Senate Intelligence Committee said Monday that the Stein probe was one of two investigations about Russian collusion that his panel is pursuing, according to The Washington Post.

    Stein dined with Russian president Vladimir Putin during a 2015 Moscow event that was also attended by Trump’s former national security adviser Mike Flynn.

    Politico reported in Sept. that Stein — the Green Party candidate for president — was the beneficiary of Russian-bought political ads on Facebook.

    The committee head, Sen Richard Burr (R-NC), has previously indicated that the committee is looking into reports that Hillary Clinton had paid for the dossier of explosive allegations against then-candidate Trump during the 2016 election.

    These Russia investigations would be in addition to the ongoing probe of possible ties between Trump officials and the Kremlin.

  35. poroti – looking at the Liberal front bench and the Labor front bench all I can say is that ‘same same’ is simply inaccurate to describe the qualities of the respective appointments.

  38. Jackol

    A walk over for Labor re a head to head on talent. However the fact remains such factional horse trading goes on. It has in the past and will in the future be the cause of talent to be secondary to faction/state. Such horse trading would never go on in the Green party though 😀

  40. Just in case we all missed the edict that the official story out of Canberra was now to be a comeback story, one Daily Telegraph drop at a time – Barnaby Joyce was carried into parliament, practically on a litter, when he managed to hold the seat he’d lost for a few weeks because he didn’t bother to check his New Zealand ancestry.

    After the return of the prodigal son, we had the triumph lap on same-sex marriage.

    …Chester himself – a very nice bloke, entirely civilised, thoroughly competent – politely, in very calm fashion, took no prisoners as he assumed his new status as feather duster.

    “Look, I’ve had better days than this,” Chester noted. Dignity demanded nothing less.

    …Before Joyce returned to Canberra after the New England contest, Liberals were sweating on his return, fancying he might be able to restore some order.

    I wrote at the time that hope was futile because the factors making the Nationals restive were bigger than the capacity of their leader to contain them.

    What I should have written at the time was the prospect of Joyce restoring order anywhere was always a vain hope, given who he is, and given the saturnine, push it to the brink mood he’s been in recently, and given where politics currently is – marooned in the knockdown clown territory that gives voters the creeps.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2017/dec/19/barnaby-joyces-shoulder-charge-spoils-turnbulls-pre-christmas-parade

  41. sprocket_ @ #934 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    The Senate is reportedly probing former presidential candidate Jill Stein for possible collusion with Russia.

    The head of the Senate Intelligence Committee said Monday that the Stein probe was one of two investigations about Russian collusion that his panel is pursuing, according to The Washington Post.

    Notably, Stein endorsed Trump over Clinton.

  45. Probably already posted. Van Badham calls it.

    Morrison has been touting a modest improvement to government debt as a success, which says nothing about the Myefo and everything about the extent of the government’s collective delusion regarding its own economic competence. What Morrison wants everyone to celebrate is that with the combination of a lucky rise in commodity prices and an unexpected increase in taxation revenue, the massive debt the Liberals and Nationals have run up since becoming the government in 2013 is slightly less massive than previously thought – rather than a deficit of close to $29bn, it’s only $23bn. Yippee.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/19/apart-from-a-few-dark-laughs-theres-not-much-joy-in-the-myefo-for-average-australians

  46. Apologies if already posted.

    Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 16m16 minutes ago

    Barnaby Joyce is now Minister for Infrastructure and, interestingly enough, a proposal for inland Melbourne-Brisbane rail goes past his Gwabegar properties. There’s gas fields nearby as well. An investigation to rule out corruption? #auspol #abcnews24

  48. Barnaby isn’t qualified to run the local pub chook raffle let alone the infrastructure portfolio. He won’t be able to help himself from pushing things his mates way, as is evident from past performance. My hope is a future ICAC locks him away forever.

  50. BHP is set to leave the World Coal Association and has threatened to quit the Minerals Council of Australia within the next year unless the MCA stops lobbying for coal power ahead of other electricity generation sources

    Gee thanks guys. Of course we’ll all forget the decades of environmental damage you’ve contributed to, now that you know the future is f*rked.

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