In a week where only Essential Research reported a national voting intention result, BludgerTrack records a tick to Labor – although it’s actually due to me finally being able to add last fortnight’s ReachTEL to the mix, for which I hadn’t previously been able to get full primary vote numbers, and which was actually a bit of a shocker for the Coalition by the pollster’s standards. As for the state breakdowns, all I can really offer at the moment is apologies for how screwy the Queensland numbers are looking. Whether because of state election static, or simply a freakish accumlation of outliers over a very short period, six of the last seven results I have from Queensland have the Coalition primary vote at 30% or below, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election. It will be interesting to see what we get from the Newspoll quarterly aggregation, which should be along in a week or two. Essential had its montly leadership ratings this week, which have givenn Malcolm Turnbull a bit of a lift. Full results on the sidebar.
steve davis
Slow but steady is ‘good’.
Newbie, the twist is that if YOU don’t reply to THEM within 5 working days,all hell breaks loose.
HR typically rules by decree. Code ofconduct, Values and Behaviour Chartersetc.do not apply to them. They break all the rules they insist that other employees follow,to the letter (if they’re trying to get rid of you).
Grimace, my wife was accused of nothing serious. No dishonesty or criminal matters. All performance related, brought on by a boss who simply took a dislike to her and decided to “performance-manage her out”. She co-opted HR into her scheme and it was all downhill from there. Now a train wreck.
Ironically the boss has long retired. HR are now still in the game simply to cover their own sorry arses.
THAT is how pathetic this case has been.
Ctar1
Yes I agree.I think a so called bounce in the polls is a thing of the past.The Turnbull cheer squad is totally impotent nowadays.The only trouble is they dont realise it.
Funny how the Newspoll hardly attracts any comments.
Reality meets freight train, head-on.
This Newspoll seems to have caught William unaware, usually has the post up quickly.
@davidwh
Some of us post here just because we enjoy the company and discussions. It’s a safe place to hang out most of the time.
That is a great comment, and it really does represent the Bludgertariat. We have our disagreements, but we do try and understand each other. It is a safe and friendly place to hang out, and hone our political understanding.
mari
i dont twitter certainly dont do politics there – arguments shot down! this is trump territory
yesterday was disaster for bill – he should take responsibility and step down before the whole train goes off rails (ever seen a crowd around him – he was and is envious of kevin, as was his union bloc)
http://www.smh.com.au/world/fetus-transgender-diversity-trump-officials-give-us-health-body-a-list-of-forbidden-words-20171216-h05yfq.html
Sick and sad.
I think the Newspoll has caught a lot of people unaware.It takes Malcolm nearer to the end sooner.That took the shine off his so called “victory”
@Pegasus 7.42 pm
Labor can’t afford to p$ss off the SDA too much because it bankrolls State and federal Labor electoral campaigns to the tune of millions of dollars.
This is no longer true. The ALP is now drawing the vast majority of their funding from people like me who give small amounts of money to campaigns we care about. We are not wealthy, but there are a large number of us.
As well as giving those small donations, we also give our time, door-knocking, handing out HTVs.
I also give both time and money to GetUp.
Us grass-roots Labor people are also big critics of anything in the Labor party that hints of corruption or nepotism.
We will take our Party back.
Geoffrey, as long as you are looking for a Messiah, you are looking in the wrong direction, whatever it is.
Whatever his failings (and I am sure he has many) Shorten’s greatest attribute is to be a broker between various warring factions, whether they be employer versus employee, or Labor left versus right.
That Labor would be ahead 53-47 dozens in times in reputable polls was unthinkable in 2013. For that mater it was unthinkable just 2 years ago, when Turnbull took over.
Nothing succeeds like success. And you have to admit that – on the numbers- Shorten has, in his quiet way, achieved more success against more “enemy leaders” than either Rudd or Gillard did. Dozens of polls prove my point. It’s unarguable.
The Messiah types usually bring the biggest disappointments.Turnbull is a classic case.
Geoffrey,
You are delusional if you think Labor will change leaders when they are enjoying a persistent lead in the polls.
One of Shorten’s strengths is that he has managed to unite the party….except for a few pathetic Rudd tragics.
Is this Newspoll 24 or 25?
25 down 5 to go.March will be the month I predict.
Cool
I guess people like Massola, Murphy and Tingle will have to temper their ‘Malcolm and the Libs are back after Bennelong’ because of this Newspoll. Ah, too bad.
Jolyon Wagg @ #713 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 11:26 pm
News for you sunshine.
It is possible to believe the events of June 2010 were the height of folly and support Shorten’s leadership in the here and now.
Sohar
Newspoll soon killed those stories off stone dead.
No need to worry about Rudd tragics. There are just as many of us Gillard tragics.
The Prime Ministerial direct election myth was started by journalists who were relying on ignorance on the part of the general public as to how governent worked. We get somuch American shit on TV,it’sot difficult to see how people could be mistaken.
Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull are classic cases of leaders who did not have the support of the respective parties. The rest is history, as are they (with the exception of Turnbull who will be next).
As long as James Massola and his ilk draw breath, there will be “Senior Labor insiders” who will feed them destabilizing gossip about disgruntement regarding leadership.
I urge younot to believe it. Andif you can’t bring yourself to do that, at least question it, and where it’s coming from.
Bemused, not news at all! I realise you are a Rudd fan but are also working for an ALP win under Shorten.
Well tonight’s Newspoll has truly sunk without trace.
Which begs the question. If a Newspoll fails to ping on radar of msm did it actually take place?
i think people are thinking more about holidays,Xmas and New Year.
Actually there’s a whimper in the Oz, but they own the poll therefore it stands to reason they report the poll. Rest of msm not so much.
steve davis:
Of course. Poor time to be polling, and the poll results speak for themselves.
Jolyon Wagg @ #721 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 11:36 pm
I also worked for a Labor win under Gillard. That’s what you do.
Will Turnbull use his numbers to refer the labor party members to the CoDR?
I think so and it will rebound on him.
Shellbell and Dio
Re: Citizens arrests.
My son, who is actually now a fine, productive and upstanding member of the community, was detained by a citizens arrest when he was 11 years old.
We were third generation Blue Mountains denizens, as were the Police, and the person who made the citizens arrest, and so perhaps this explains what happened.
For some bizarre reason, Milo (the chocolate drink company) put samples of a Milo chocolate bar in the local letter boxes. Son and friend decided to “liberate” said samples from the letterboxes of the crotchety old people who made up the majority of our town, and who son and friend figured would not even eat the chocolate bars.
Well, they got sprung. Some crotchety old geezer saw them nicking the milo bars from the letterbox, and grabbed them by the ear, and dragged them into his house. The police were called, and after an hour, they came to pick up the criminals (son and friend). The first thing I knew was that they were at Springwood Police station, and I had to go and bail them out – alright, they just asked me to take them home.
At the time I asked the Police if they were happy with the idea of the “Citizens Arrest”, and whether they were concerned about the fact that someone had kept my son and his friend captive in their house for an hour before the Police could get there.
No, they just told me I was obviously not being harsh enough on discipling my son.
We still call it the Great Blue Mountains Milo Heist in my family.
Jolyon Wagg @ #721 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 11:36 pm
Actually, the word “fan” is not an adequate description.
I regarded him as more effective as a politician than Gillard who was probably a better administrator. There is a major difference between the two.
I actually find Christmas quite stressful.
For us we have a large power bill, gas bill, two cars to register, Telstra, Water, council rates and credit cards maxed out paying for renovations (until we settle on the house and then their GORN). There are also storage fees, presents for the grandkids and matters to do with settling two house sales (one by us, the other to us).
Nobody’s at work, so you have to plan weeks ahead. Pre-Christmas is almost more stressful than Christmas itself, as everyone tries to cram in four weeks’ work into two.
Christ! You NEED a break from having a break after all that shit.
No wonder Newspoll has been a big pfffft.
BB
Having had some similar problems myself, short of crossing the tripwire and taking the complaint to an external body, in this case the auditor general or ombudsman or even the media, the public service will almost never give in no matter how wrong they are. If you get ahead, you’ve got to consider calling it a day. Eventually it’s just not worth it. Sometimes doing the right thing isn’t doing the right thing.
i love this site -not the place for nuanced arguments have thought that for 10 years!!
BB remains a stand out voice of reason
I still worry BS works by default. in which case labor should be truly home …
sorry to dim sunshine – 2010 need not prevail, problem is lack of public qualities in BS – sorry but he is on T May spectrum yet to be tested by prolonged exposure
2010 does previal in terms of dynamics to explain where he came from, just as abbot is product of same pod – two peas
the guys and gals here love dwelling on newspoll but for same 25 polls shorten has trailed turnbull … but that is explained away … yes its good shorten has picked up on turnbull 2PP, but that is mianly, trulky, result of self destruction of turnbull … good night little lights on the rising
Geoffrey, could you try that again in English?
I thought he was moving to Indonesia? Or was that someone else…
A newspoll is not reality sorry to tell you.Asking someone who they are going to vote for in a mythical election that is not going to happen is like asking them what they will do if they win the lotto.
Polling become more accurate the closer you get to the real thing and by election eve they usually get pretty close to nailing it.
But as a predictive tool mid term polls are next to useless, Howard in 2001 and 2004 and Keating in 93 are just three examples I can think of.Sometimes this kind of polling sticks and sometimes it doesn’t.
D and M
The sample milo bars would be if so low value it wouldn’t constitute a crime but the police get very thingy about stealing from post boxes, which I gather is a federal crime.
Joylong basically Geoffrey was saying Shorten is a drag on Labor but Turnbull’s incompetence is a much bigger drag on the Coalition
I’ve gone through the Rudd vs Gillard battles and have no interest in starting it up again, but I will say this Shorten and David Feeney started the original toppling of Rudd. And then went and voted for Rudd to topple Gillard.
It really shows politics is a very dirty business and your so called ‘backers’ and friends are not necessary really your friends. Gillard thought she had the backing of Feeney and Shorten and then abandoned her when it came to the crunch.
I also think it has painted a picture of politicians have no loyalty and there all in it for themselves. It’s not just in terms of leadership, but culture. I remember after the federal election there was calls from some to dump Catherine King as Health minister. After the news broke the next day one Labor MP complained suggesting it was driven ambitious backbenchers who wanted a spot on the ministry.
Dio
The sample milo bars would be if so low value it wouldn’t constitute a crime but the police get very thingy about stealing from post boxes, which I gather is a federal crime.
Agree about stealing from mailboxes being a federal crime. And, I did rouse on the boys most severely.
However, I was slightly surprised that no one considered that one of the local crotchety old buggers holding two 11 year old boys in his house for an hour, after he made his citizens arrest, totally OK.
I love the edit function. Thanks William.
jolyon
not really
someone kindly paraphrased – yes indeedi both leaders are drag on country i thought that’s what everyone thought. turnbull has a slight edge in public presentation stakes which comes from his born to rule and barrister dna hence polls. rudd (and gillard) much better public speakers
Everyone here complains about X backing Rudd or Gillard and switching etc. that wasnt the terrible judgement from Labor.
I want to know who put up a psychopath like Latham to run the country and voted for him. They are the he ones who had no idea. Rudd and Gillard should be on a pedestal compared to Latham.
Douglas and Milko @ #740 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 12:14 am
Many years ago, an ALP member in my electorate got his kids to do some letter-boxing for him.
On the way around, the kids noticed Liberal stuff sticking out of some letterboxes so they started pulling all such material out and took it home and gave it to dad, beaming with pride.
Dad had a look at this most impressive effort by the Libs, personally addressed envelopes with their brochure inside. But of course no stamp.
Realising how serious interfering with the mail he did the only think he could think of in the circumstances. Dumped it all in the nearest Australia post box. 😐
it’s also just a bit bl… rich for shorten of all people to be talking about stability, that’s all – shadow of 2010 is there and it shouldn’t be …
D and M
I would have argued the milo bar wasn’t the mail as it hadn’t been delivered by Australia Post and given it was a free sample it had no owner.
And then kept stuffing melted milo bars into their letter boxes “as recompense”.
Has Wayne become geoffrey?
Diogenes @ #743 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 12:22 am
I was aghast when Latham got the leadership.
I tagged him as a complete nutter years earlier.
Still, when he got it, I hoped Caucus knew better than me and I hoped for the best.
ha ha newbie – you are a precious lot here – first person with a good idea turn off the light
dont tempt or i will keep at it …
i have consistently arguing one direction here for many years so deserve .. most folk here now seem like as you say ‘newbies’
The Newspoll was carried out before Bennelong and among voters from all over the country, who would have been largely untouched by the Bennelong campaign. So there’s absolutely no reason to think the run up to the by-election or its result could have had any influence on the national poll. Really, what we should expect is exactly what has been reported – that not much has changed from one poll to the next. It has been like this for about a year. Politics in Australia has not changed overnight.
This trend is not likely to change unless things change in the perceptions of the performance of the parties or the general environment changes. One thing that could help the Liberals would be their supposed affiliation with some success – with some wins. The passage of ME and the results of the by-elections might resonate, but not for long. The resignation of Sam Dastyari might also help the Liberals, although by now that’s likely to have been forgotten by 4/5 voters.
Nah. The nation is about to turn its attention to Christmas & NY, to holidays and sport. And then in February the country will go back to work, to the daily commutes, to paying the mortgage or the rent and the monthly bills, balancing the budget, schooling kids, caring for parents, attending to the family’s medical needs, dealing with all the demands. And they will wonder how come it’s still so hard, how come wages have barely moved and why the NBN is such a shambles. They will see a uselessly weak, incompetent and yet hugely self-satisfied PM and a Parliament that is pre-occupied with nothing much of anything.
And the Right-Splits will probably persist with their antagonisms. They have been defeated in the plebiscite, in the Parliament and in Bennelong. But they will not rest. They will be back, looking for ways to hurt their enemies in the Liberal Party. And politics will motor on.