BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor

A quiet week for national polling leaves Malcolm Turnbull looking a little bit better on personal approval, but a little bit worse on voting intention.

In a week where only Essential Research reported a national voting intention result, BludgerTrack records a tick to Labor – although it’s actually due to me finally being able to add last fortnight’s ReachTEL to the mix, for which I hadn’t previously been able to get full primary vote numbers, and which was actually a bit of a shocker for the Coalition by the pollster’s standards. As for the state breakdowns, all I can really offer at the moment is apologies for how screwy the Queensland numbers are looking. Whether because of state election static, or simply a freakish accumlation of outliers over a very short period, six of the last seven results I have from Queensland have the Coalition primary vote at 30% or below, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election. It will be interesting to see what we get from the Newspoll quarterly aggregation, which should be along in a week or two. Essential had its montly leadership ratings this week, which have givenn Malcolm Turnbull a bit of a lift. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor”

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  1. JM @ #646 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 9:50 pm

    booleanbach @ #547 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 6:07 pm

    This article is a timely reminder of what can happen and how it happens; small steps at a time:

    I believe that Australia is not immune – what with Peter Dutton soon to be in charge of all intelligence bodies here.

    We are in a very dangerous period at least until the next election. Dutton has the capacity to both obtain an extraordinary and unprecedented level of info on his political opponents (and everybody else), and use it more or less without restraint. (Who in the government or parliament will challenge him? Not even the PM can be safe from that sort of power and mindset.)

    Dutton also has proven no hesitation in using his power in this way, and pushing the boundaries hard. He has form, and lots of it.

    If the USA goes full authoritarian, which it is a serious possibility, then so will Dutton and his hangers on here.

    Which will look good in your obituary, Mal.


    bemused @ #605 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 7:22 pm

    Asha Leu @ #505 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 6:37 pm

    IIRC, I’m pretty sure Geoffrey isn’t a Green (or a Lib, for that matter.) He seems to be a Rudd supporter who still hasn’t forgiven Labor and Shorten for the events of 2010.

    So you think what happened in June 2010 was a great idea? (Not making any judgement about whether Shorten was involved.)

    Wrong question, dear fellow.

    The right question is: Had all reasonable alternatives been exhausted by Labor before taking that obviously very risky action of last resort?

    To which the obvious answer would be a clear and resounding ‘no’!

  2. Dio

    He is certainly liable for civil damages (false imprisonment, battery) because, unlike coppers, he cannot rely on reasonable suspicion. He has to be right.

    Might avoid a criminal conviction.

  3. grimace:

    Me too. Nobody is paying attention to politics in the week before xmas. School’s out, parliament has risen.

    Total WOFTAM.

  4. Grimace
    Agree with you.
    Technically worker at work full time but not at the workplace, expected to fulfill all requirements as directed by management. Realistically available for the 40 hours as directed.

    Had it been a suspension, paid, then management could argue should not accrue extra 2 hours. But this should have been stated beforehand.

    Looking at around 5 weeks RDOs.

    Sorry BB should have thought about it a bit more.

  5. be warned: bill is not persuasive campaigner …. the lesson is yesterday, but am sure few are learning – he thinks he is good, that is also problem.

  6. The MSMs attack on Sam D comes to no avail in Newspoll.Still rusted on 53-47 and not budging.The CPG are dreaming if they think that was a good result for Turnbull last night.Momentum my arse.The MSM are truly away with the fairies.

  7. #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (0) ALP 37 (0) GRN 10 (0) ON 7 (-1) #auspol
    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0) #auspol
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 41 (+2) Shorten 34 (+1) #auspol
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 32 (-1) Disapprove 56 (+2) #auspol
    #Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 32 (0) Disapprove 57 (0) #auspol

  8. Bemused

    To which the obvious answer would be a clear and resounding ‘no’!

    I genuinely wish I could be so sure.

    Confessions @ #654 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 8:27 pm


    No change on voting intention, primary or 2PP, just leader ratings.

    What a waste of money!

    The cash strapped Libs just blew a cool million on a nothing fest in one of their safest seats.

    Who paid the bill?

  9. CT
    Wow. Mahmood has been a very busy Boy. I see he ended up in the slammer. My guess is the Adelaide guy will come a cropper soon.

  10. Taylormade @ #626 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 8:22 pm

    service continues up until the date the employee is officially notified of termination.

    I think this may be an oversimplification. For instance, if an employee takes a period of unpaid leave that time generally doesn’t count as “service” for the purposes of, say, determining if/when someone is eligible for long-service leave, or accrual of annual/sick leave, how much of a payout they get if declared redundant, and so on.

    Generally however, if you’re being paid and accruing benefits then it counts as service.

  11. Still shows it doesnt matter how much the MSM/Turnbull attack Shorten or Labor or Sam D or citizenship of Labor MPs or SSM or Jobson Growth, it makes no difference to voting intentions.

  12. I’m glad we have a thinking electorate in Australia, compared to large sections of the American electorate which is wholly unthinking.

    Australians are looking through the clouds of bulldust and seeing the policies, or lack thereof, of the major parties.

  13. Boris and Grimace,

    Thanks a LOT for your replies.

    My wife accrued 28 ADOs throughout suspension of 22 months. We viewed the official roster database assiduously. Took screenshots, downloaded pay slips.

    Reality was that the roster database clearly stated that she was rostered for “40 hours” per week, even though on paid suspension. Payslips had two entries: first was paid suspension 40 hours, then minus-2 hours, totalling 38 hours paid.

    We balanced the 40 hours rostered against the 38 hours paid and came up with an excess of 2 hours per week worked.

    What do we mean by “worked”?

    In practical terms this meant ready to receive management direction from 8.30 to 5pm, 5 days per week, for 22 months. These could and did come at random intervals of from a couple of days, to (believe it or not) 12 whole months. Yes, there was one period where no communication was made for 12 months, BUT at the commencement of the period management had advised that communication and disciplinary action was literally “imminent”. So we waited for 12 months. No breaks, no holiday for 2 Easters and one Christmas/New Year.

    No holidays were offered by management the whole time. All along ADOs (RDOs or “Allocated Days Off”) accrued every 28 days, regular as clockwork (according to the staff self-service database), but they were not offered by management as an opportunity to take some actual leave.

    How can you take leave while already on leave?

    Well, you can accrue 3-5 ADOs and then take a week off, book-ended by two weekends, total 9 days, for example. It means that for a period of 9 days management guarantees they won’t require you to respond to their direction,and you can have a break (and decrement your ADO count). That’s win-win. These 9-day breaks can be taken every few months.

    As stated above however, there was no offer of time off by management, as they are required to do, so the ADOs continued to accrue. The lack of opportunity to take time off is exacerbated by the fact that management eventually claimed that the reason for their inattention to the case for 12 full months as “investigators were jointly or severally on leave for 12 months, so couldn’t get together to attend to the case”.

    Apart from being utter maladministration, it’s a pretty hefty kick in the teeth to find that the reason the employee couldn’t take leave was because management was too busy taking their own leave to offer the employee leave!

    We are talking hundreds of thousand of dollars in salary and admin costs paid out to my wife and others here, to accommodate management leave choices.

    Theupshot is that when we asked if we were to be paid out the accumulated 5 weeks of ADOs (correct calculation Boris) management went into the database and deleted them all.

    We have asked for an explanation, but they will not respond, even to acknowledge the deletion, much less justify it.

    This, by the way, is pretty typical HR behaviour. If you ask them a question that’s too hard, they simply don’t respond. If you press the point they threaten you with discipline for being a disruptive employee.

  14. Bushfire Bill @ #680 Sunday, December 17th, 2017 – 7:23 pm

    Theupshot is that when we asked if we were to be paid out the accumulated 5 weeks of ADOs (correct calculation Boris) management went into the database and deleted them all.

    We have asked for an explanation, but they will not respond, even to acknowledge the deletion, much less justify it.

    Whoever did that is a real simpleton. In a modern ERP you can’t just delete anything. If you need help on this part and don’t want to go through it publically, get my email address from William.

  15. Also the media should hold Turnbull to the same standard he set for Tony Abbott. 30 Newspolls behind Labor and it indicates that the electorate have lost faith in you.

    So the calls for Turnbull to step down should be made.

  16. If your wife was govt employee BB and they deleted the RDO records that is fraud, altering financial records and probs other stuff too.

    Even if not PS that is serious stuff.

  17. steve Davis,
    Turnbull will try to buy his way back to popularity next year with a fistful of dollars and riding on the coat tails of the jobs the NDIS has created.

  18. Good thing you have the payslips and screenshots.

    Concern is if they can alter leave records as they have done what else have they done.

    Any auditor would be stupified.

  19. Grimace, thanks. I will take you up on it. William, can you supply Grimace’s email address please?

    We have fought this case for now two years and won every major battle. You are up against a “bean bag” mentality, as in trying to kick one into shape. If they don’t want to put anything in writing, they don’t. They play for time, make up new rules (and exceptions to rules) and manufacture evidence. If you point out the manufactured evidence (even with impeccable documentation, that quotes their own words), they just ignore you. As a last resort they transfer the offending manager out of the way and then say “That was then, this is now.”

    If you complain, you’re complaining to either the person who made the decision in the first place, or to their boss (who will look bad if the complaint is upheld).

    My wife has been reinstated, but has no official advice to this effect. There is no outcome letter (as mandatory under policy). It is all being done “off the books”.

    They regard us as greedy for insisting on an explanation for the deleted ADOs, and for their payment. The attitude is (literally quoted to my wife):”You’ve already got a couple of hundred thousand out of us and now you want MORE? Piss off!”.

    The people you are complaining about are the people you have to complain TO. It’s a closed loop.They all cover for each other.

    The union is hopeless.They have done a dirty deal with management, and as part of that deal told them we’ll cause no more trouble. Now that we are causing more trouble, they’ve washed their hands of the matter.

  20. C@t
    I think the electorate has stopped listening to Turnbull and his cronies.Doesnt matter what he throws at the electorate I dont think they will buy it.

  21. Labor was never in a real position to win Bennelong, despite the Dastyari intervention. So why couldn’t he ride out the storm until after the by election?
    The question remains.
    Why were Labor facilitating his moving on in any event?

  22. C@t:

    Would seem so. Whatever happened to Charlton ? He disappeared quick as a flash once we started taking the piss out of him with #weatheronPB reports and hasn’t been seen since! 😀

  23. geoffrey says:
    Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 10:02 pm
    be warned: bill is not persuasive campaigner …. the lesson is yesterday, but am sure few are learning – he thinks he is good, that is also problem.
    Geoffrey do you moonlight on Twitter as bloggers! Exactly same arguments against Bill Shorten, shot down on Twitter

  24. Bushfire Bill:

    This, by the way, is pretty typical HR behaviour. If you ask them a question that’s too hard, they simply don’t respond. If you press the point they threaten you with discipline for being a disruptive employee.

    I had to wait nearly 18 months for HR in a former job to approve recognition of my prior service, after taking 2.5 years out of the workforce due to prolonged illness (normally they only recognise service up to a 12 month lapse in employment). Eventually they got back to me to request a statement from my specialist stating that I was unable to work during the time I had off, which I obtained and sent off… then waited a few more months. They even contacted the manager of my previous position (without alerting to me to this), though it was within the same (statewide) organisation, to find out why I left my previous employment. Basically they’ll do everything they can to avoid giving you want you want, when money is involved. Eventually they relented, and I got recognition of prior service for accrual of long service leave and had all of my previously-accrued sick leave reinstated.

  25. Any auditor would be stupified.

    Boris, you would not BELIEVE what they have done. I could write a book about it (many friends have suggested this). It’s Kafka’s wet dream, his fantasy Trial.

    But you get to know what they hate after a while. What they hate is exposure. That’s why it’s all off the books.

    So, the answer is to put it ONTO the books. They way to do this is to involve the CEO, who so far knows nothing of this case.

    The CEO is an “an avenging angel”, brought in by the intervention of the Chairman to clean up the department. There have already been several senior executives who have resigned because (and I kid you not) they have “decided to spend more much-needed and valuable time with their families.” Quote/un-Quote.

    This case WAS audited, but the result of the audit was to tell those involved to just “Sack her and piss her off.” NOT to rectify the situation and conform with policy.

    Well, that didn’t work, and now the mess is even greater and has cost a motza more to keep under wraps.

  26. I like the polls at the moment.No swift movements up and down as the years gone by.That 53-47 is so rusted on nowadays its probably worth a larger margin from years ago e.g 56-44.Its going to take a long, long time to reverse that 53-47 back to anything in the Libs favour.

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