BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor

A quiet week for national polling leaves Malcolm Turnbull looking a little bit better on personal approval, but a little bit worse on voting intention.

In a week where only Essential Research reported a national voting intention result, BludgerTrack records a tick to Labor – although it’s actually due to me finally being able to add last fortnight’s ReachTEL to the mix, for which I hadn’t previously been able to get full primary vote numbers, and which was actually a bit of a shocker for the Coalition by the pollster’s standards. As for the state breakdowns, all I can really offer at the moment is apologies for how screwy the Queensland numbers are looking. Whether because of state election static, or simply a freakish accumlation of outliers over a very short period, six of the last seven results I have from Queensland have the Coalition primary vote at 30% or below, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election. It will be interesting to see what we get from the Newspoll quarterly aggregation, which should be along in a week or two. Essential had its montly leadership ratings this week, which have givenn Malcolm Turnbull a bit of a lift. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

768 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.1-45.9 to Labor”

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  1. Good morning Bludgers 🙂
    The sun rises on a new day and sees Labor still with a Coalition-crushing lead. What’s not to like?

    Hopefully in the new year, Turnbull won’t be able to buy off the electorate with a fistful of dollars.

    Hopefully it will be the superior policies of Labor which address Inequality that will be preferred.

  2. Hi C@t

    Good effort, Labor. More dirty pool from the Libs.

    Truffles was so determined to make the victory his own that he over-rode Alexander at every turn. I don’t remember another bye-election when that happened. Then Alexander’s weird reply on the disabled has been picked up by the media, I believe.

    Q. Is Alexander really such a charming fellow??

  3. For those who missed it.

    Alexander shocked with a bizarre joke during his victory speech, appearing to suggest he has “more pride” than the disabled.

    With Turnbull at his side, Alexander told an anecdote about his former career as a professional tennis player – a career that came to an end due to a back injury.

    “I was eligible for the disabled sticker on my car! The doctor at the time said, ‘You have eligibility for a disabled sticker.’ I said, ‘I still have some pride.’ That was before I entered politics!”

  4. lizzie,

    The outrageous comment was made by a Liberal…. hence it will be soon forgotten in the media and it won’t reappear for the Federal election…
    On the other hand, had a Labor member said that, wait for a “JuLiar-style” relentless media campaign until election day.

    Dastyari won’t disappear from the media either…. whereas very few are aware of Robb’s (not to speak of Turnbull’s) highly questionable links with Chinese interests…. etc., etc.

  5. A 5.5% swing to Labor is a superb effort by Bill, Kristina & their army of volunteers ..if replicated in 2019 we will be in landslide territory..

    ..brilliant effort that will gradually sink into the psyche of even our most rabid R/Wing media commentators..

  6. It did seem strange that labor froze on the China stuff. They should have endorsed the legislation and removed the party whip on dastyari – bit like Beattie did in qld in addressing cmc findings.

  7. ESJ, nice detective work by C@T, you were in the nsw labor right. FMD, you loser. The labor workers were volunteers, you snivelling liar. We had 6 volunteers there from Gilmore, your boy had Ann Sudmalis, replete with her clearly marked electorate car [ probably claiming a deduction]

  8. Drop of more than 2% in the Greens vote must be a worry for Di Natale..

    It only seems to be an issue for the concern trolls
    You’ll see how “bad” the Greens vote is come Batman by-election.

  9. The real concern for the Greens Party from WA, QLD, New England and now Bennelong may be that it is routinely jostling with a horde of preference whisperers and the like. The anti-major party vote in Bennelong is just shy of 20%. The issue for the environment here is that the Greens Party is increasingly likely to be sharing the BOP with a another minor protest parties.

    I assume that this share will go down with postals and prepolls.

    Sure, the Greens Party does a bit of damage to Labor during election campaigns, and cannibalizes some centre left seats, but their grand vision – forming government in their own right is looking decreasingly likely.

    Not only that, but having locked the environmental vote up in an extreme left-controlled competing political party they have allowed the Liberals to completely abandon any concern for the environment and leave Labor with no real desire to lose political bark by following environmental policies.

    The Greens Party current real-world achievements include a half dead Reef and environment program funding cut by around half in four years.

  10. It’s not ‘everyone else’ , you just don’t get it. Volunteering, with a passion, whether it be Vinnies, Red Cross, community groups, church groups or sports groups is a good indicator of character.

  11. Bludgertrack does not suggest voters are ‘increasingly turning away from the major parties’ – as the meme goes – but are turning away from the Liberals.

    Thus a party which is relying on an anti-Labor vote will find it more difficult to pick up votes than one which is relying on an anti-Liberal one.

  12. Volunteering for good causes with out the expectation of reward yes.

    Furthering the malign intentions of the Obeid/Beijing/labor axis not so much.

  13. IMO what marriage equality, New England, Bennelong and the elevation of Frecklington have done between them is freed Turnbull to a considerable extent from his Right Wing wreckers. Taken together, they will also give a general lift in his personal morale and the Liberal’s morale. He has a much safer base from which to do a much-needed reshuffle.

    None of this will fix the core problem for the Coalition: growth is not translating into improved job certainty or improved real wages. For most Australians, the jobs they have are more precarious and real wages are going down.

    Targetted personal tax cuts are the only policy settings to deal with this.

    Whether they will be enough to move 4% of the voters now becomes the $64 question.

  14. Lizzie – “Q. Is Alexander really such a charming fellow??” not in my opinion. When Harry Jenkins was speaker he delivered an emotional valedictory after the sudden and sad death of a well known and respected disabled worker from the House of Reps (my personal friend and work colleague). Alexander tweeted a lets say very insensitive and inappropriate comment about Harry acknowledging a “nobody” in the chamber. I will never forget this as to my mind it demonstrated a lack of empathy at best, and demonstrated his sense of superiority.

  15. Yes key man there is something oddly arrogant about Alexander – is it because he’s made a lot of money, he seems to have been a mediocre tennis player and an also ran mp.

    The qld figures do seem pretty crazy particularly with a now second term labor govt. take away 9 seats and replicate Rudd 2007 in all and that gets you 84 seats and subtract Batman gets you 83 seats which is about right atm.

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Katharine Murphy says that Turnbull savours Bennelong moment, but there’s little room for hubris.
    Is the big story from Bennelong the drop in the Greens vote?
    The Vatican has released a statement saying that the final report from the child abuse royal commission “deserves to be studied seriously.” Doesn’t sound too supportive to me.
    Paul Bongiorno writes about the political missteps over China.
    Jess Irvine looks back at the year that was.–and-well-be-the-better-for-it-20171215-h05m9i.html
    Jonathan Freedland writes that while we’re looking the other way, Trump is changing America for decades to come.
    Adele Ferguson bemoans the paucity of penalty for white collar crime.
    Jay Weatherill says the spectre of a royal commission into River Murray water theft is already forcing changes. Google.
    The Saturday Paper has an excellent editorial on the Royal Commission.
    Decentralising the public service is a costly and ineffective way to grow regional wealth that risks damaging the performance of government agencies, the Productivity Commission has warned.
    Section 2 . . .

    In a good article on the buying of political influence Michael Pascoe takes aim at a couple of our favourites – Gina Rhinehart and Rupert Murdoch.
    Ross Gittins gives us a lot of food for thought in this article on the theory of competition.
    Austria has become the only western European state with a far-right presence in government after its president approved a controversial coalition deal.
    Announcing strident critic of charities Gary Johns to head the Australian Charities and Not-for-Profits Commission betrays a questionable selection process and a campaign to nobble the sector.
    Half of all race-related opinion pieces in the Australian mainstream media are likely to contravene industry codes of conduct on racism. And surprise, surprise! The study found that negative race-related reports were most commonly published in News Corp publications.
    Nicole Hasham says that according to Frydenberg the controversial Abbott-era fund that uses public money to pay companies to reduce their pollution will survive the federal government’s review of Australia’s climate policies.
    In quite a long article Ruth Williams asks the question, “Are Australia’s business Lonny groups past their peak?”
    Karen Middleton reveals that as Adani draws public ire over its Abbot Point rail line, Gina Rinehart awaits the benefits of another NAIF deal to open up the Galilee.
    Are we headed for a big stoush on Melbourne’s waterfront and beyond?
    Peter FitzSimons’ last column for the year.–twitter-stoushes-stadium-madness-and-a-great-australian-story-20171215-h05jud.html
    Section 3 . . .

    Amanda Hooton gives justified praise to Dean Smith, Mr Invisible,
    Can the concept of behavioural economics be extended to the prevention of war?
    The SMH editorial gives water safety a plug.
    Bridget McKenzie charged taxpayers thousands of dollars to attend an awards night for shooting in Sydney, claiming the trip as “electorate business” even though she was a Victorian backbencher. Some of these people have no shame!

    Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    A Christmas wish courtesy of Reg Lynch.

    Matt Golding outside Parliament House.

    And Golding on Bennelong celebrations.

    Glen Le Lievre on the likely response to the CA Royal Commission from certain bodies.
    Mark Knight with Peter McClellan’s final flourish.

    Sean Leahy also has a dip at the findings of the Royal Commission.

    And he sums up the way the Royal Commission has done some emotional good for the victims.

    I sincerely hope David Pope is wrong about this.
    One of Alan Moir’s best.

    Moir’s view of Turnbull’s 2017.

    Jon Kudelka inside the CBA money laundry.

    And it’s goodbye to David Rowe until the new year.

  17. It’s sad Edwina is still bitter about Eddie not forking up her promised share of the moola. The right are such sooks. Get over it Edwina. You should know better than most that there is no honour amongst thieves.

  18. Edwina,
    You are celebrating a significant swing against Turnbull and his Government…. I am celebrating too…. The Federal election is getting closer and the 2PP in the polls is getting worse for you guys…. What’s the next strategy to get out of the mess?

    Oh and rejoice in the thought that 100% of hard Australian Conservatives supported Alexander…. Malcolm the “moderate”? Nah, it’s Malcolm the Waffler who is still controlled by the Conservatives.

  19. Thanks BK.
    Minister for doing F-All to protect our environment, Frydenberg, is trying to create a new religion to do the hard work.
    When asked if he was personally concerned about the effects of climate change on future generations he said: “I have enormous faith in technology ……… to get us where we need to be.”

    So there is our answer, direct from Josh.
    The Technology Religion will save us all.
    He (and his government) will do nothing.
    All together now, let us pray, for we are truly fucked.

  20. Keyman

    🙂 I was being sarcastic, but you have added more evidence for his lack of empathy. It must be hard for such a superior person to allow the plebs to vote against him. Perhaps that’s what he and Truffles have in common.

  21. Edwina, the Qld figures reflect both the craziness of the results at the last Federal election, which will not be repeated, and the fact that the Qld voters are happy with their ALP Government, hence they returned them with an increased majority.

    What’s ridiculous in the current BludgerTrack is the anomalous result for Western Australia, which I am sure will be corrected in coming polls.

  22. Alpo I guess my question is Rudd 2007 is the absolute high water mark for alp national vote in qld. The current polling suggests labor would get +5 % on that, maybe they will but it seems highly unlikely,hence my subtraction of nine seats from the tracking estimate.

  23. Also worth noting the Religious Right’s faith in prayer was supplemented by a million dollars and a lot of hard campaigning in Bennelong.
    Telling everyone you have Faith inTechnology (as Josh did) is all very well, but it requires money and hard work if you want to actually achieve changes.

  24. Edwina
    If you, personally, ” couldn’t care less who is in government” is this your admission you are just a paid troll?

  25. I have followed Geoff Lemon since before he took on cricket commentary – his Heathen Scripture Blog is a pearl. But today he has seamlessly introduced quince paste into an article about cricket and must be posted here…..

    Geoff Lemon; with Marsh smashing fours “Smith could rest content…Smiths presence let Marsh forge on. The contrasting complement was quince paste and cheddar”.

  26. Oh cot don’t worry I won’t tell anybody about your seeking autographs and pictures with important people next Thursday night.

  27. Interesting how the Wayne/Lee bot has almost humanised ESJ. I think she’s beginning to have buyer’s regret about Trumble’s inability to keep his arrogant inner arsehole under sufficient control to fool the plebs. Caveat Emptor.

  28. Very Helpful Ninja Pirate Monkey Santa‏Verified account @jonkudelka · 8m8 minutes ago

    Hats off to the libs for preventing JA for telling any jokes until after the booths closed.

  29. Good Morning

    Good result from Bennelong. The big losers are the extreme right. In a safe Liberal seat the Greens never get huge results. As Mr Burke said those Greens probably directly gave their primary to Labor.

    Mr Bernadi was only able to get the Nile vote.

    This in an electorate that voted no to marriage equality.

    Add to that the bludgetrack results and the message is crystal clear. The extreme right is not popular in Australia. All Turnbull’s caving into the right is costing him big time.

    Thats the lesson we are seeing here. A repeat of what has been obvious for some time. When Turnbull was in the leather jacket phase appearing to be moderate on social policies he did well in popularity. When he dumped that to appease the right the his popularity dived.

    The reason the NSW Liberals have done well is they adopted the moderate policies to a degree. I hate the privitisation and like policies. The NSW government did embrace the full gonski. They have put rail lines and light rail into place.

    Unlike most of their LNP countrparts around the country.
    As a result it has taken time for the bad policy agenda at the heart of the LNP to show through to voters as the problems start to pile up.

    Appease the right and you lose elections.

  30. **It’s easy to ignore ESJ**
    Mrs Katich once made quince paste. But after spending a day cleaning the stuff off every surface (including the ceiling!) and not having room for beer in the fridge for a year, she is not allowed to do it again.

    Maybe if she made smaller quantities more regularly….

  31. ‘I won’t tell anybody about your seeking autographs and pictures with important people next Thursday night.’

    Sorry, that would be totally unremarkable behaviour. No one would comment adversely about it.

    Indeed, it’s the opposite – if you have any political ambition at all, you are expected to put together a folio of photos of yourself with various luminaries. You never know when you might need them to illustrate a media release, a leaflet or for social media.

    I once was reprimanded quite severely by John Brumby for NOT appearing in a photo with him.

  32. Edwina

    I am not sure that Rudd 2007 was a high water mark for labor in Qld. Sure they liked having a QLD PM and they liked Rudd but loathed the instability. They loathed Newman. Anastasia has delivered stability and her vote went up. The chaos in the LNP will probably put Qld off more than most states. While 11% is a huge swing, Qld has shown in State elections capacity for volatility.

    Perhaps we can compromise on a 6% swing.

  33. Edwina,
    The support for the Federal LNP in Qld at the last Federal election was a national outlier, and the reason why the Turnbull government was returned, just. It won’t be repeated at the next election, presumably in 2018…. the national mood is for change. This time, the not-so-credible polls result in the BludgerTrack is the one for Western Australia, currently favouring the Libs.

  34. The Press Gallery Group think went badly wrong. Kenny, Massola, Murphy, Maiden and the like show us again how they confuse noise and leaks and silly polls with what’s really happening in real life.

  35. Oh cot don’t worry I won’t tell anybody about your seeking autographs and pictures with important people next Thursday night.

    Way to prove you know fuck all about me, ML/ESJ.

    1. I hate having my photo taken.

    2. I have one drink per social occasion, and NEVER lose control.

    But I CAN’T wait to see what a friendless Loser like you looks like on Thursday. Stuck away in the corner, trying to figure out what people are whispering about you. 🙂

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