Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 20
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  2. briefly @ #367 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 4:39 pm

    After 30-odd years of split-politics from the Gs, the centre-left plurality has been wedged and wedged and wedged and wedged again….and the plurality of Curtin, Chifley, Whitlam and Hawke/Keating has been reduced to about 1/3 of the electorate.

    This is the entirely pernicious result of phoney G-decoy politics.

    You really think so? No, really? This is not just a cheap rhetorical flourish?

    You really believe there are no other factors involved?

  3. Breaking:
    Kerry Chicarowski (sp?) LURVES both Michaelia Cash and Christian Porter.
    Ref: The Drum.

    :sigh:
    I thought that once pollies retired they began to see more clearly.

  4. daretotread @ #378 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 4:54 pm

    How hard is it for you anti-deluvians to grasp that the world ahs changes sine 1985 and there is a demographic of voters who are green rather than Red or Blue. if the greens disappeared some other equivalent party would emerge.

    This endless finger pointing at the Greens as somehow disruptors is really thick headed, because it assumes that the greens somehow created the demographic whereas in reality they are a product of it.

    There is a large group of voters, concentrated in the yuppie belt who regard the LNP as evil meanies on a par with Darth Vader but also find the ALP boring, old fashioned, bogan and weak. So they will give their preference to Labor ahead of Darth Vader but will not love the ALP. If the Greens collapsed they would coalesce around some new party – the progressive basket weavers or rainbows are forever party. They will not become enthusiastic supporters of the ALP.

    Hard to believe you are an ALP member when you attack the ALP and boost the Greens so often.
    My ALP has plenty of the demographic you speak about as members. They know where reality lies.

  5. How are they better than the Reason party ?

    The Reason Party doesn’t advocate a Job Guarantee and it perpetuates the myth that the federal government obtains its money from the non-government sector. Hence it’s entire policy agenda fails to challenge the “how will the federal government pay for it?” furphy. On macroeconomic policy, the New Democracy Party and the Australian Employment Party are superior to all other Australian political parties. It is important for progressives to vote for parties that directly and forcefully challenge stupid obscurantist ideas that artificially constrain the range of policy options that are available to our federal government.

  6. daretotread @ #382 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 4:59 pm

    Trog
    I did not give any kind of time lines. I have no doubt that renewable will shortly be able to meet most of our needs.

    It is just the coal/gas argument that seems absurd.

    Now I do support having a back up generation system, if even only to supply electricity in the case of a nuclear winter. Of the available fossil fuels gas has the advantage of being lower in pollution, easier to transport and of course quick to start up in an emergency.

    I don’t think we would be focusing much on power generation in a nuclear winter.

  8. Trentyarwood: @jpwarren Remember also that provider numbers are geographic. so I have a dedicated one for patients I see at the sexual health clinic. So if you’ve been seen there and had a PBS dispensing for valaciclovir, I know you have herpes.

    trentyarwood: @jpwarren and similarly, if you’ve ever been dispensed an antiretroviral, then we can tell you’ve got HIV (or much less likely in specific circumstances, Hep B)

    Did this guy come bottom of the year in Med School!?!

    Valaciclovir can also be prescribed for Viral Meningitis. It was prescribed for my son for that very reason. It is hardly a social disease, or however he wants to characterise the other uses for it.

  12. Kenny Devine‏ @TheKennyDevine · 8h8 hours ago

    BREAKING: George Brandis to be appointed High Commissioner to the UK. Mr Brandis’ bookcase has accepted a position at the British Library; his diary is on a sabbatical in Bermuda & was unavailable for comment.

  13. Wayne Swan‏Verified account @SwannyQLD · 3h3 hours ago

    Wages barely keeping up with inflation, employment barely keeping up with population, government barely keeping up with reality #myefo

  15. AUSTRALIA REGAIN THE ASHES!!!!!!
    WICKET! England 218 all out (Woakes c Paine b Cummins 22). AUSTRALIA WIN BY AN INNINGS AND 40 RUNS.

    They’ve got ‘em back!

  17. lizzie @ #395 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 6:06 pm

    Breaking:
    Kerry Chicarowski (sp?) LURVES both Michaelia Cash and Christian Porter.
    Ref: The Drum.

    :sigh:
    I thought that once pollies retired they began to see more clearly.

    I LURVE Cherry Kickherarskie. My all time favourite. With sound off she is nigh on perfeck.

    The seeing clearly is only when the rain is gone according to the song. 😍

  19. Boxing Day test now a non event. Hundreds of cancellations according to a friend at the MCG. He said we might as well hold it at Fawkner Park or Albert Park Oval

  21. This is chilling for Australia’s future

    The Turnbull government will hit universities with $2.1 billion in cuts as it unwinds the demand-driven system that ushered in a student boom at tertiary institutions, and applies a lifetime cap on student loans.
    …….

    There would also be a lifetime limit on government assistance of $104,440 for most students, and $150,000 for medicine, dentistry and veterinary science students.

    So, too bad when that PhD in data intensive science is redundant after 10 years, because you have designed the AI that will replace you. No retraining for you. but of course, you can still work for Deliveroo.

    From 2020, universities will be forced to compete for fundings by meeting “performance targets”. At the same time, funding growth for all universities will be capped at the growth rate of the working-age population.

    Actually, calculating who benefits from the performance targets is easy. They are called the GO8. They get the students with the highest UAI, from the highest socioeconomic backgrounds. The other universities have to work very hard with their students to achieve poorer retention rates, for the same reason that teachers in low SES schools need to work much harder to achieve less *metrically* good results than their peers in high SES schools.

    Disclaimer – I work in a G08 institution, and love my institution and my job. But you do not have to be a disgruntled anarchist to see where this is leading, and that it will narrow opportunities for disadvantaged groups.

  22. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, December 18, 2017 at 4:34 pm

    Boerwar

    Thanks for the link. Could see that place two ridges away from our farm. Couple of rellies have farms adjacent to the battle site.’

    I would love to live cheek by jowl with a bit more history – just like that.

  27. Bemused
    Acknowledging reality is all I am doing. You seem to want to believe that everyone will just luurve the ALP even though it puts up candidates like Feeney and Danby, who are probably to the right of 1/3 of the Liberals.

    There are I think a few factors at play.

    Firstly there are the old style lefties like me, still loyal to the ALP, but with economic views much closer to those of Nicholas and Trog. There are one helluva lot of us in the ALP you may be surprised to know, especially in middle class or inner city electorates. I have been lucky in that I have not needed to make a choice ie I can work actively for ALP candidates that I like and respect. I would find it much harder indeed impossible in Batman or Melbourne Ports. On vote compasses I sit right between the greens and the ALP.

    Secondly there is the “bogan” factor. I realise that most of you will hate me for this next comment but it is time you grasped this nasty reality. There IS class division in Australia. Programs such as Upper Middle Bogan attempt to deal with it as did Kath and Kim. Inner city educated trendies and their cousins in hippyland see themselves as superior ie not bogan. They dress “refined”, they read books if they are older and avoid eating sausages. They do not watch much sport and prefer to go to an art gallery or concert. They speak with a mid range accent not an Aussie drawl. They probably do not watch Master Chef or the gladiators. They drink wine not beer. Most are second generation educated in the sense that their parents probably were professionals or white collar workers and they grew up in leafy middle class suburbs, migrating to the inner city when they left home. However they remain fundamentally progressive in that they believe in social justice and caring for people and want peace justice, sustainability etc. Many are quite deeply left wing on both economic and social issues. However they will NEVER comfortably identify with those whom they see as bogan. Because Greens by and large come from the same social environment this group are happy voting for them. Yes they are probably snobs. However they are still voters.

    When Labor put up highly educated middle class candidates like themselves all was well. Whitlam was obviously one such but so too was Cairns (although self made), Evatt and Curtin. However in recent years many in the ALP (and almost all on here) applaud the bogan and the anti-intellectual side of Labor. There is a reason that the Libs push the anti union stuff – it resonates with these voters who see unions as essentially bogan. This trend seems to be getting much, much stronger. Started with Hawke (he was the odd ball both highly educated AND a union person) but has been most obvious with Gillard and Shorten.

    Anyway enough. It is a factor in Green voting and no matter how Bemused and the rest want to fantasize about return to Labor they need to address this “class” factor

    The THIRD factor is that the ALP is now very, very right in its economic and foreign policies. Feeney, Danby are two obvious names but plenty of others can be found. Even those who are supposedly on the left are often very wimpy in their left positions and would have been squarely on the right in Whitlam’s era. (Whitlam was very much on the right of the ALP).

  28. dtt

    There are all sorts of political considerations and these are raised on a routine basis by supporters of competing political parties. We can talk about personalities and behaviours and voting patterns and all the rest of it.

    But the structural issue won’t go away.
    The Greens Party is the single biggest problem for the environment.
    It manifestly is not the solution.
    The sooner environmentalists go back to the Liberal Party and the Labor Party and start ensuring that their votes actually matter, the better for the environment.

  29. ‘Started with Hawke (he was the odd ball both highly educated AND a union person) but has been most obvious with Gillard and Shorten.’

    …who are also ‘oddballs’ apparently – both highly educated and union people.

    And can we stop the dissing of ‘bogans’? The ME voting patterns suggest that they are a lot more tolerant and progressive in their views than those inner city elites give them credit for.

  30. Anyone who ran for the hills during the Great Debt and Deficit Disaster a few years ago would sure be confused if they came back today and saw the news reporting how great things are now that the situation is twice as bad!

  32. That was a perfect use of the language, paaptsef.

    “… how great things are now that the situation is twice as bad.”

  34. A lot of the hatred of Feeney seems to be driven by him holding a seat the Greens want.

    Most of his ‘sins’ are no worse than those of other MPs, who don’t get nearly the same amount of disdain directed at them.

    Yes, he should have declared his property – – but then, di Natale committed exactly the same ‘crime’ (and a couple more), so you’d think that those criticising Feeney would be equally dismissive of di Natale.

  38. Lovey

    Partly because the more fervent environmentalists are no longer within the party working for change; partly because Labor felt that they could leave it to the Greens to argue the case for environmental issues and let the ball drop a little; partly because of complacency – the Green-enviro vote comes back to Labor via preferences (the blue-Green vote was never theirs anyway) – so Labor doesn’t feel the need to chase it, and partly because environmental groups focus their lobbying on the Greens.

  39. daretotread @ #427 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 7:45 pm

    Bemused
    Acknowledging reality is all I am doing. You seem to want to believe that everyone will just luurve the ALP even though it puts up candidates like Feeney and Danby, who are probably to the right of 1/3 of the Liberals.

    There are I think a few factors at play.

    Firstly there are the old style lefties like me, still loyal to the ALP, but with economic views much closer to those of Nicholas and Trog. There are one helluva lot of us in the ALP you may be surprised to know, especially in middle class or inner city electorates. I have been lucky in that I have not needed to make a choice ie I can work actively for ALP candidates that I like and respect. I would find it much harder indeed impossible in Batman or Melbourne Ports. On vote compasses I sit right between the greens and the ALP.

    Secondly there is the “bogan” factor. I realise that most of you will hate me for this next comment but it is time you grasped this nasty reality. There IS class division in Australia. Programs such as Upper Middle Bogan attempt to deal with it as did Kath and Kim. Inner city educated trendies and their cousins in hippyland see themselves as superior ie not bogan. They dress “refined”, they read books if they are older and avoid eating sausages. They do not watch much sport and prefer to go to an art gallery or concert. They speak with a mid range accent not an Aussie drawl. They probably do not watch Master Chef or the gladiators. They drink wine not beer. Most are second generation educated in the sense that their parents probably were professionals or white collar workers and they grew up in leafy middle class suburbs, migrating to the inner city when they left home. However they remain fundamentally progressive in that they believe in social justice and caring for people and want peace justice, sustainability etc. Many are quite deeply left wing on both economic and social issues. However they will NEVER comfortably identify with those whom they see as bogan. Because Greens by and large come from the same social environment this group are happy voting for them. Yes they are probably snobs. However they are still voters.

    When Labor put up highly educated middle class candidates like themselves all was well. Whitlam was obviously one such but so too was Cairns (although self made), Evatt and Curtin. However in recent years many in the ALP (and almost all on here) applaud the bogan and the anti-intellectual side of Labor. There is a reason that the Libs push the anti union stuff – it resonates with these voters who see unions as essentially bogan. This trend seems to be getting much, much stronger. Started with Hawke (he was the odd ball both highly educated AND a union person) but has been most obvious with Gillard and Shorten.

    Anyway enough. It is a factor in Green voting and no matter how Bemused and the rest want to fantasize about return to Labor they need to address this “class” factor

    The THIRD factor is that the ALP is now very, very right in its economic and foreign policies. Feeney, Danby are two obvious names but plenty of others can be found. Even those who are supposedly on the left are often very wimpy in their left positions and would have been squarely on the right in Whitlam’s era. (Whitlam was very much on the right of the ALP).

    You have a passion for division and classification.
    Are you into taxonomy?
    The ALP I am familiar with is diverse and encompasses all the types of people you disparagingly describe.
    The unifying factor is a passion for social justice or a fair go for all.
    BTW, I drink wine and disdain watching sport if you hadn’t figured that out already.
    My friends have ranged from a boiler maker to a judge and pretty much everything in between.

    Why are you so intent on dividing and classifying people on a class or cultural or other basis? We get along fine in pursuit of ALP goals.

  40. There should not be any student loans because there should not be any student fees. The full financial cost of education and training at all levels, from the earliest of early childhood education, all the way to doctoral studies, should be covered by the federal government. The social good component of education is so high that there should not be a user charge. By all means ensure that people are given the support they need to develop the competencies they will need before they can undertake a particular course of education or training. We don’t want people to enter programs they are likely to fail. Make sure people have abundant on-the-job training that they are paid to do. We don’t want empty credentialism; we want formal study that adds value to on-the-job learning. We need appropriate ways of evaluating the quality of educational and training programs, improving their quality where possible, and revoking accreditation from irretrievably bad programs. Hell, we could even make satisfactory progress in a course of good quality education or training a minimum wage job under a public sector Job Guarantee so that students can devote themselves to their learning and have enough income to live on. But putting price signals and financial barriers on students is unnecessary and counterproductive.

  41. Steven, I’m sorry but I cannot believe that crap about the Ashes and ch9. Their advertisers would spit chips. Nor about people abandoning in large numbers.

    Some of the Barmy Army might be heading home, but Aussies now want to see 5 nil whitewash to put it right up the Poms. If I had tickets, I’d be there like a shot.

  42. Nicholas, I don’t agree with you often but on education I am in your corner. All education should be free – as you say, the reward is far greater then the cost, and would lead to the ‘best’ being well educated rather than those who have the financial means.

  43. Nicholas @ #440 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    There should not be any student loans because there should not be any student fees. The full financial cost of education and training at all levels, from the earliest of early childhood education, all the way to doctoral studies, should be covered by the federal government. The social good component of education is so high that there should not be a user charge. By all means ensure that people are given the support they need to develop the competencies they will need before they can undertake a particular course of education or trainer. We don’t want people to enter programs they are likely to fail. Make sure people have abundant on-the-job training that they are paid to do. We don’t want empty credentialism; we want formal study that adds value to on-the-job learning. Hell, we could even make satisfactory progress in a course of good quality education or training a minimum wage job under a public sector Job Guarantee so that students can devote themselves to their learning and have enough income to live on. But putting price signals and financial barriers on students is unnecessary and counterproductive.

    Nicholas makes a good case for improved education. The poor lad never learnt about paragraphs.

    He should ask his teacher about them when he returns to school next year.

  44. Briefly
    Someone who thinks the Greens are anti-ubion eitber as a party or as individuals is poorly placed to call Green politics phony on account of not knowing Green politics if it bit them. But that’s the usual level of discourse amongst your Labor love in. You judge the Greens based on shit you’ve made up and Labor based on some mythical world where Labor has flawless judgement on when and how to get it’s “hands dirty”.

    The only party responsible for a loss of a Labor positive plurality share is Labor. Because it’s your god damn job to organize your policies to appeal to that plurality but instead you took a chunk of that vote for granted for decades and now you have a big sook when you’re room to maneuver is limited by the pushback. You’re the ones claiming to be a party of government (though since in the history of Australia you’ve been in Government 1/3rd of the time* you’re not exactly covering yourselves in glory there either but I’m sure that’s the fault of pernicious time travelling Greens too).

    * A number which by the way is identical before and after the emergence of the Greens so your plurality theory isn’t exactly on strong footing for explanatory power. Its far more likely that extra 5% has gone to other minor parties on both Labor’s left and right sides and tends to come back to it , in the same circumstances it originally did.

  45. jenauthor @ #441 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 8:10 pm

    Steven, I’m sorry but I cannot believe that crap about the Ashes and ch9. Nor about people abandoning in large numbers.

    Some of the Barmy Army might be heading home, but Aussies now want to see 5 nil whitewash to put it right up the Poms. If I had tickets, I’d be there like a shot.

    Absolutely agree.

    Our beloved ex Prime Minister, John ,call me “eyebrows” Howard, will be there with all his friends, reading excerpts from his joke book. This band of merry makers will swell the crowd enormously. 😇

  46. jenauthor

    Re education. Jacinda Ardern over in UnZud is off to a start, first year tertiary free next year with years 2 and 3 in the pipe line. We’ll have to wait and see if it causes the end of civilisation as we know it before we can hope for similar in Australia.

  48. I got to receive the benefit of Whitlam’s free university in the 70’s. I would NEVER have had the means otherwise. I will be forever grateful.

  50. Elaugaufein
    I believe 2/3 conservative and 1/3 progressive in terms of time in power is pretty much par for the course in most democracies.

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