Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Boerwar
    Yes, looking at the electoral history and vote flow of the two parties from 1996 to the present I see the strong structural similarities. Wait, no I don’t because no part of your post actually resembles the reality of the available electoral data over that time period.

  7. 3 of the GG’s to 5 headlines. gotta love ’em

    “EXCLUSIVE
    GetUp’s foreign donor contradiction”
    .
    “Victorian ALP could splinter”
    .
    “Migrant welfare delay lifts budget”

  8. I know this has already been linked here, but I am posting it again, as it need to be said again and again and again …

    Given the huge success of the lynching of Sam Dastyari and building on recent AFP union raids to recover ten-year old receipts, the nation can expect to see similarly brilliant strategies deployed against Labor or indeed any other organisation including GetUp! or unions which pose a threat to Liberal rule – or any other outfit or individual whose actions or beliefs may interfere with the enlightened despotism of Menzies’ sensible centre as mediated through Malcolm Turnbull’s top secret Coalition agreement with the Nationals.

    This week has seen the nation take another step into emulating the political dystopia George Orwell warned us about in 1984. The trouble with the Coalition – and their pals in the United States of America is that they think it’s a primer.

    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/12/17/turnbull-lynches-sam-dastyari-while-invoking-yellow-peril-2-0/

  9. William in today’s Crikey noting that while booths with non English speaking voters swung more to Labor than Liberal, this must be tempered by the fact that educated and affluent metro whites are more predisposed towards Turnbull than they were even to Howard, and what this might mean come election day in neighbouring Reid and Banks.

    However, the other side of this coin is that there was barely any swing in the parts of Bennelong dominated by educated and affluent metropolitan whites — a rarely discussed breed of voter that responds more favourably to Malcolm Turnbull than it did to John Howard or Tony Abbott, and is likewise present in fairly substantial numbers in Reid and, to a lesser extent, Banks.

    What all three electorates lack in substantial numbers are middle-income mortgage payers of the kind that hold the key to outer suburban and regional city seats where elections are usually won and lost.

    Such voters abandoned the Liberals in dangerously large numbers in 2016, and their prospects for a third term depend in very large part on winning them back.

  10. Most of the criticisms OF Greens in this Forum revolves around political strategy and tactics.

    Most of the criticism of the ALP BY the Greens is about the alleged moral degeneracy of Labor.

    Pretty easy to work out which is the more hurtful.

  11. D&M:

    Burke alluded to something similar on Insiders yesterday. He said that the coalition benchmark for Dastyari level infractions was immediate removal from parliament altogether, and (wtte) what goes around could very well come around and bite a number of Lib MPs on the same issue.

  12. ajm @ #510 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 9:57 pm

    Most of the criticisms OF Greens in this Forum revolves around political strategy and tactics.

    Most of the criticism of the ALP BY the Greens is about the alleged moral degeneracy of Labor.

    Pretty easy to work out which is the more hurtful.

    Well spotted AJM. I hadn’t quite seen that point. But its true.

  13. Poroti:

    The Labor govt in the 1990s introduced mandatory detention of people who arrived who arrived in Australia who weren’t citizens and who did not hold a valid visa.

    I’ve not seen anyone here argue otherwise over the years I’ve been commenting here.

  14. Well, that’s the last time I plan to say something nice about The Greens. And I honestly was going to. But after that dummy spit by elaugaufein, they can forget it!

    As others have said, The Greens who comment here can’t go on like snowflakes about the criticism they get from Labor supporters here, when we have to put up with their daily drum beat of denigration of us!

    The puerile, too cute by half, cutting and pasting of anything anti Labor Pegasus can lay her hands on; Rex Douglas’ persistent and perennial
    puerile posturing about Bill Shorten, and now the ‘Lib Lab’ crap; plus a plethora of other slurs directed at me and others who support Labor, simply because we do and because we defend Labor, and ourselves, from what we see as unjustified sledging.

    So, until that stops and The Greens’ supporters who comment here stop behaving like spoilt rotten brats who just want things here to be their way or the highway, and they start answering the questions we politely ask them instead of running away, have discussions with us around the issues instead of expressing barely-disguised contempt for anything we suggest, just because we suggest it, then I, for one, will keep criticising them.

    Because they deserve it.

  15. Bemused,

    This might help: A comparison of Coalition and Labor government asylum policies in Australia since 2001. Updated 2 February 2017

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/AsylumPolicies

    Given that there is bipartisan support for several of the Government’s current deterrence measures (such as offshore processing in the Pacific) it could be argued that the policy differences between the two major parties are minimal. In fact, there has been bi-partisan support for most of the policy responses and deterrence measures developed by successive Labor and Coalition governments since the 1970s, including the introduction of mandatory detention for all boat arrivals by the Keating (Labor) Government in 1991.

    The Expert Panel on Asylum Seekers established in 2012 to advise the Australian Government on ‘the best way forward’, acknowledged the complexities of the issues arising from the arrival of asylum seekers by boat, noting that there ‘were no quick or simple solutions’.[4]

    The Panel argued for an integrated suite of short-term and long-term proposals that included deterrence measures such as the re-introduction of an offshore processing regime. Long-term non-deterrence proposals included recommendations that the Government create better migration pathways and protection opportunities for refugees coordinated within an ‘enhanced regional cooperation framework’.

    However, to date many long-term proposals along the lines of those recommended by the Panel have not been pursued by either of the major parties. It is argued that without long-term effective mechanisms in place, perceptions of ‘good refugees’ and ‘bad refugees’ will continue to be ‘pitted against one another’ in the public debate.[5]

    This paper provides a comparison of key Labor and Coalition asylum policies since 2001 when the Howard (Coalition) Government first introduced the practice of offshore processing to deal with previous waves of boat arrivals. It includes an overview of the recommendations made by the Expert Panel on Asylum Seekers in 2012 and analysis by experts in the field regarding the policy alternatives. A summary of the key policy similarities and differences is provided in an appendix.

  16. fess

    I’m not sure Labor should be too fussed about winning seats like Bennelong – it is, after all, very similar demographically to blue ribbon Liberal seats such as Kooyong.

    There are whole swags of seats, certainly more than enough to form government with, which don’t require swings of 5-10% to win….although if we pick up seats with swings greater than that, no one in Labor is going to say no to them!

  17. Wakefield says:
    Monday, December 18, 2017 at 9:39 pm

    If Greens and Labor can’t find a way to argue without throwing out the baby and bathwater then progressive politics in Australia will be weakened.

    Yah, that’s the point. The Gs want to throw out the baby and the bath water and then blame Labor for having the nerve to run the bath at all and only bringing one baby instead of triplets.

  19. E

    Of course the Greens Party (PHON) has to attack Labor (the Liberals). It is competing with Labor (the Liberals). And of course this damages Labor’s (the Liberal’s) chances at elections. It is meant to damage Labor’s (the Liberal’s) chances at elections. And of course the Greens Party (PHON) helps the Libeals (Labor).

  20. Most of the criticism of the ALP BY the Greens is about the alleged moral degeneracy of Labor.

    To be fair, Labor’s problems relate to poor strategy and tactics too, not just poor policy judgement.

  21. The Greens Party gains a huge insight. The Labor Party behaves like a political party.
    The Greens Party avoids a huge insight. The Greens Party behaves like a political party.

  22. Wakefield, the G tactics consist of trying to start arguments which cannot be concluded. The substance of the argument is not important. What is important is to have an argument at all, because this permits the protagonists to campaign. Abbott tries to do the same thing – to use provocation in order to arouse attention and open campaigning opportunities.

    The single best strategy is to ignore the provocations.

  24. zoomster:

    I agree, there is a large swathe of low hanging fruit across the country that Labor should target ahead of Bennelong. I would love to see KK recontest Bennelong after the good work the party did in that seat, esp if JA retires before the next election, however recognise that deployment of resources to such a seat will be difficult in a general election.

    As discussed yesterday, seats like Reid might be more appropriate for a candidate like her.

  25. A serious question to the Greens supporters. If as you say the policies of the Greens are superior to the Coalition & Labor, why the low vote from the electorate.?

  26. aR says that the ALP Bludgers criticism of the Greens has been about tactics, Bemused agrees. But this is not the sentiment I get from Boerwar, BB and Catmommas posts.

    And I cannot recall any post from a Green positing Labor’s “moral degeneracy”, but the defensive posture from AR looks like a nerve has been hit.

  27. daretotread @ #460 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 4:52 pm

    Zoomster

    Having a degree these days even a law degree does NOT make one highly educated. Back in Whitlam’s time (and Evatt) those with degrees represented less than 2% of the population. Less than 10% completed high school and the majority left school at 14.

    These days not even a Phd would push you into the same category as Whitlam or Evatt or Menzies. Barrister, Professor, Specialist medico or award winning writer is probably the equivalent.

    Once a degree becomes commonplace it loses its brag value.

    …

    Are you serious?

    In many sciences what was learnt in a Bachelor degree back then would barely make it into the first year course now.

    There are whole fields of study that barely existed back then.

    You seem to think a degree has no educational value and hence no benefit to Society above someone being able to say “I’ve got one so I’m better than you!”

    Maybe we should just close all Universities as they don’t really contribute that much to the Society!!!

  28. Lovey @ #526 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 10:15 pm

    aR says that the ALP Bludgers criticism of the Greens has been about tactics, Bemused agrees. But this is not the sentiment I get from Boerwar, BB and Catmommas posts.

    And I cannot recall any post from a Green positing Labor’s “moral degeneracy”, but the defensive posture from AR looks like a nerve has been hit.

    ajm made that point.
    And he is right.

  29. Elaugaufein – I admire you for your honesty and openness to discourse but there is simply none to be had with the jihadi faction of ALPaeda warriors on this blog. In case you haven’t noticed, theirs is a relentless antipathy to the Greens or any view other than their own. I have very good friends who are current ALP members and supporters with whom I can share enjoyable and mutually respectful political discussion. With a certain faction here on PB the only mode of engagement with the Greens is holy war. I just scroll past the contributions of the usual suspects and as a result find PB an infinitely better experience. It was interesting to watch the Wayne incident unfold and how well it illustrated the wisdom of not feeding trolls. Likewise, not feeding the jihadis is the way to go.

  32. On the NBN I’ve had a last minute reprieve. NBN have halted further roll out of HFC connections nationwide till they can sort out the myriad of issues users are having. When I rang Telstra to confirm that the disconnection notice for 9 Feb had been rescinded the Telstra guy said “Good news, you definitely don’t have to move to the HFC NBN for at least another 9 months”. Pretty well summed up what I was feeling too.

  33. Poroti has invented the Original Sin paradigm of Mandatory Detention.

    Labor are to be forever condemned. Because Mandatory Detention. MD as the convenient bogeyman. Just say the words to induce feelings of contempt for Labor, because they created it! No mention of the fact, as Confession alludes to, that the original intent was to simply run health and security checks before the people were let into the community.

  38. The Greens exclude ‘bogans’.
    They can never be mainstream and therefore would be better working with another entity. The problem is no one knows which entity is appropriate depending on ths next piece of legislation and internal pawer plays. Just can’t trust them.

  40. The Greens have been on the federal political scene for more than 20 years and seem to have gained a base level of support of almost 10% of the punters. Some of those voters are not ex-Labor voters who have been stolen by the Greens; they may never have voted for another political party other then Green in their political lives. Labor needs to ensure that it remains the second preference of Green voters. Labor may lose a couple of inner city electorates to the Greens over time but there are many, many more electorates which Labor will need Green preferences in to win or retain in the future.

    And at some stage the Greens will have to drop their childish platitude that both major parties are as bad as each other – their voters don’t think so when allocating their preferences.

  41. Barney in Go Dau @ #535 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 10:25 pm

    Confessions @ #530 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 6:21 pm

    Barney:

    That’s hilarious from DTT. Talk about living in an alternate universe!

    It was just so mind boggling stupid I had to read it a couple of times to make sure it actually said what I thought it did. 🙂

    Barney, I don’t know what you studied at university, but I have had a couple of university experiences decades apart, and I must say the earlier course was a much higher standard.

    I also did some tutoring and some of the students simply should not have been there, but to its shame, the university wanted their money. The pressure was on to pass them.

  43. Lovey @ #526 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 9:15 pm

    aR says that the ALP Bludgers criticism of the Greens has been about tactics, Bemused agrees. But this is not the sentiment I get from Boerwar, BB and Catmommas posts.

    And I cannot recall any post from a Green positing Labor’s “moral degeneracy”, but the defensive posture from AR looks like a nerve has been hit.

    It was not AR who mage that comment but rather myself. Just about every comment made by the Greens about Labor is along the lines that Labor is the same as the Liberals, has sold out the environment, working people, etc, etc. This roughly equates to accusing Labor of moral degeneracy, I think.

  44. Meanwhile.

    In Catalonia it looks like the Podemos-Ecologist group (which also seems to have self government policies) will be a key group between the main independence groups and the “some autonomy but not independence” groups (conservatives Peoples Party, liberals/citizens party and Socialist Party.

    Several people have died in protests in Honduras over what appears to be a rorted election supposedly re-electing a conservative President.

    And in Nepal it looks like a Maoist Communist government will clearly win the first national elections since the end of the civil war.

  45. C@tmomma says:

    “max exemplifies the blinkered Greens view of the world. He only wants to read comments that he agrees with.”.
    .
    Hilarious coming from you 🙂

  47. bemused

    “Hurtful” – lol . I wouldn’t have lasted 10 years on this blog if I took seriously the stereotypes and assumptions bandied around here about Greens supporters and members.

  48. ajm @ #543 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 10:37 pm

    Lovey @ #526 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 9:15 pm

    aR says that the ALP Bludgers criticism of the Greens has been about tactics, Bemused agrees. But this is not the sentiment I get from Boerwar, BB and Catmommas posts.

    And I cannot recall any post from a Green positing Labor’s “moral degeneracy”, but the defensive posture from AR looks like a nerve has been hit.

    It was not AR who mage that comment but rather myself. Just about every comment made by the Greens about Labor is along the lines that Labor is the same as the Liberals, has sold out the environment, working people, etc, etc. This roughly equates to accusing Labor of moral degeneracy, I think.

    You nailed them Comrade!

    Now just listen to the little piggies squeal. 😆

  49. ajm
    Are we assuming that condemning a party for having the temerity to exist and to seek political representation is a discussion of strategy or tactics rather than moral condemnation now ? Because if we are then I’d concur and argue that your assumption is wrong but otherwise I’d argue that your characterization is wrong.

  50. Zoomster

    Having lived in both Bennelong and Kooyong I assure you there is NO demographic similarity at all.

    Completely different demography and character.

    Kooyong is white central and it is a wealthy plus area with a goodly swag of mansions. It is leafy upper middle class suburbia, where barristers and specialists make their homes.

    Bennelong is middle class suburban central – more like Moonee Ponds or precisely Burwood where Humphreys grew up. While the houses are solid and respectable they are not mansions. it is where small business owners and middle management live (or it was). It includes sections of Western Sydney too which were once solidly working class. Because of its location it has now become the home of well to do immigrants especially Chinese.

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