BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

A long period of poll trend stasis appears to have ended, with three pollsters reporting a break to Labor.

Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

623 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. @ Ed Boyce….
    Thanks . I do understand that Bludgertrack is a snapshot of most polls at a point in time, and that it will change over time as polls are released.
    We have a minority govt at the present which could fall at any time. If election day was tomorrow and Bludgertrack was at 53.9% ALP at the opening of the polls, it would be suggesting a landslide to the ALP. I was just asking does Bludgertrack have a track record at being accurate on election day.?

  2. C@t

    Cheers, and your slow-loading hug caused my computer to say “Warning, warning, memory short, close everything now to prevent loss”

    And of course I blame Malcolm Turnbull’s Mess.

    All good.

  3. Confessions:

    I reckon Victoria is right that Trump voters support him because he’s legitimised their racism and sexism.

    Certainly, there’s a sizeable block of voters that do, but I daresay the are only one section of those that actually helped him win in 2016. For example, he seemed to have won the rust belt states mostly on the hope that he would help turn around their economic woes.

    IMO, the voters still supporting Trump currently consist of: (and I acknowledge that this is largely based on my own feelpinions rather than hard evidence)

    – Partisan, rusted-on Republicans
    – The aforementioned misogynistic racist demographic (likely a fair bit of overlap with the first category)
    – Working class middle Americans still optimistic Trump will deliver on his promises

    Trump may well have already shed a fair few of the latter group, but the generally positive economic conditions in the US at the moment probably means many are still keeping the faith. But this tax plan is one of the clearest signs yet that Trump has no actually intention of helping the working poor – the question is how engaged many of these people to these sorts of things.

  4. Bushfire Bill says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 10:09 am

    I just try to add THEIR contributions to PB as they can say it much better than me with my limited skills

    As I say, you do yourself a disservice.

    So I wonder, Phoenix, what your take on this might be in the current American political context or accusation and counter-accusation?

    Franken, Clinton ………. Moore , Trump …..

    Democrat – Republican

    My comment – I don’t care who they are or what political party they belong to :

    If it is proven, not hinted at – if they do the crime – they do the time !!!!

  5. Cat

    Yes. Thats why I pointed out straight away if account was hacked was the important bit. Not Pyne’s private life. I am no fan of Pyne. However he was on the right side of history fighting for equality within his party. His motives do not matter.

    Mr Shorten has handled the politics of it exactly right. Focus on the possible security issues and have sympathy about Pyne’s private life being invaded.

    Mr Shorten continues to impress me and I think has the making of being a truly great PM

  6. According to the Oz just now:

    Door closes for quick Lambie comeback
    Tasmanian mayor Steve Martin will seek Jacqui Lambie’s Senate spot despite conceding there is a Constitutional cloud over his eligibility.

  7. Kay Jay

    You are such a lovely man, and very very funny, to boot.

    I feel for your Canberran family, and the distress of your nephew. But they have you in their corner which I’m sure brings them great consolation; as your kindnesses did for me.

    And as you so often say, be kind to yourself, as well.

    All the best.

  8. God, I miss Frank’s presence on this site.

    When he was around the barbs of all the internecine warriors were directed at him, and an internal armistice was otherwise maintained.

    And best of all, Frank didn’t give a shit what you thought.

  9. JohnWren1950: We have a separation of church and state. Leave religion out of the Marriage Act legislation. The two should not mix. #ssm #auspol

  10. There you go again,Guytaur, having two-bob each way:

    First sentence of post:

    Given your comments after I posted about Peter Strong I know now you did not intend to be homophobic. All you had to say of course there should be no expectation that if you are gay then you are refused a cake.

    Last sentence:

    I am just defending myself here from what I see as an unreasonable attack on me because I pointed out the comment as posted was homophobic.

    You either want to have your each-way bet, or you don’t understand what “homophobic” means. I would say it’s a personal position, taken with intent.

    If it is neither a personal position, nor intended, then it’s not homophobic. This is true in my case.

    Another interpretation of your response is a readiness to look for fault where there is none, stemming from a cloak of inappropriate moral superiority, where you arrogate to yourself the right to instruct others on how best to phrase their posts, in order to avoid your disapproval. There’s a word for it: “wowser”.

    Stop blaming me for your lack of reading skills, colored by your tendency to not only judgement, but pre-judgement. Please quit giving me helpful guidance on the English language. It’s not necessary, and it’s not welcome. You’re not my editor or my high-school teacher. I’m not afraid of your displeasure, I’m just pissed-off by it and that smarmy moral tone you adopt when you dispense it.

    I don’t need your forgiveness or your contrition, but if you’re going to give it, then don’t go and make a parting comment by telling the world I was lucky to get it.

  11. GT

    The only thing I would mention about the Adani poll is that its by The Australia Institute. Id wager the questions may be a bit leading given their standing on the mine. William Bowe and Kevin Bonham might have more to say on this point (including tell limg me im an idiot)

  12. Yesterday I posted in defence of Christopher Pyne who alleges his Twitter account was hacked. My defence of him was based on something I believed was a similar occurrence that happened to me a couple of years ago.

    My account was hacked and used to post links to porn sites, which naturally horrified some of my Tweeps. When I became aware of it, I immediately changed my password to something more difficult to generate randomly and apologised for the befouling of my Tweep’s timelines. Luckily I managed to nip it in the bud before any lasting damage was done.

    Now, on to the subject of Mr Pyne’s account being hacked. At the time I posted my acceptance that something similar had happened to him, I wasn’t aware of the full facts of the incident. I mistakenly believed his account was used in a similar fashion to mine and was used to disseminate links to porn sites.

    As it turns out his account simply “liked” one gay porn video. I can fully understand why someone(s) would hijack someone else’s account to promote porn sites, however hacking into someone’s account to “like” just one, and only one, gay porn video stretches credulity.

    So I am changing my verdict of innocent until proven guilty, to probably guilty.

    Anyway, given that Messrs Bernardi and Shorten have called for an official investigation into the matter, the truth will eventually (ahem) come out.

  13. BB


    Comments can be homophobic even if not intended to be so by said poster. The fact was I gave you an instant way out. I said put jew instead of gay and re read your post.

    Your response to me just now is proof that you prefer to do a personal attack than admit that you inadvertently or not the post was homophobic.

    This is not my mistake its yours.

    As all can see when you put Jew Black or other minority group into that post there is no doubt to anyone. This is why you got the response from so many posters you got.

    It was not bullying it was genuine response to the argument you were putting because it was reading that being gay was enough to be the sole reason to deny a commercial service.

  14. I volunteer a different thought on Pyne’s twitter. A staffer fucked up and thought they where on their own account. Ive seen it happen right in front of me.

    Either way im not sure im keen to engage with speculating on Mr Pyne himself.

  15. bemused @ #124 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 5:58 am

    sonar @ #107 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 9:42 am


    Perhaps a rephrasing of my question may have made it simpler for you, but unless I mistook the meaning of this site, I am assuming it is about polling. So I asked what I thought was a simple question. How accurate is Bludgertrack, (as opposed to Roy Morgan/Newspoll/Reachtel) in predicting an election outcome.
    Bludgertrack is 54% for the ALP. IF that predictor is accurate then that is landslide territory……is Bludgertrack an accurate guide to those figures. ?
    (My thanks to those that answered.)

    Bludgertrack aggregates results from several pollsters, so unless one of those is very accurate and the others considerably less accurate, thereby shifting the aggregate away from the true result, you would normally expect the aggregate to tend to even out any particular biases of individual polls and be more accurate.

    You can look at historical data to see if this is indeed so.

    As for the future outcomes, we will all have to wait.

    Add to that, William weights them for reliability and corrects for historical bias.

    He only uses their primary figures and calculates his own 2PP from the last election’s preference flows.

    He disregards polls conducted by special interest groups as the methodology is often unclear and the results released can be selective.

  16. frednk:

    As with the Ted Cruz incident a little while back, I’d think that – assuming it was actually the politicians in question and not a hacker or staffer- they were probably just browsing the twitter feed’s, er, content and accidentally pressed the like button.

  17. IOM

    The problem is the media reporter. If they had just put that Pyne’s account accessed adult content and the security issue there would not even be an implied violation of Pyen’s privacy.

    It would have been purely about the security. However the media cannot avoid titillation in its stories. More clicks.

  18. God, I miss Frank’s presence on this site.
    When he was around the barbs of all the internecine warriors were directed at him, and an internal armistice was otherwise maintained.
    And best of all, Frank didn’t give a shit what you thought.

    livened things up, lots of horse heads in beds jokes if you crossed him

  19. sonar

    Thanks for clearing that up. In the last couple of elections the polls didn’t move much during the formal campaign, but those campaigns came at or near the end of a full term, when an election had been expected for a while. Could be a different story if there’s an early election due to the government losing by-elections, or rushing to the polls after a leadership change.

  20. Most polictians have their staff manage their social media accounts. Some of the brighter ones sign their own posts with their initials. Their staff have the login credentials of their employing politician.

    Eg James Ashby has all Pauline’s credentials….

    So Pyne’s alleged ‘liking’ of some gay porn could just as well be one of his staffers failing to switch accounts, as it is hacking.

    I’m sure Beranardi’s judicial inquiry will ‘see how far this has penetrated’, as he so cruelly double-entenderd.

  21. posting pics of a pollies house is intimidating, they did the same to Keating when he was living in a private house in Canberra.

    Keating hit the roof at them putting his family at risk, seem only to do this with labor/ green pollies.

  22. Steve777 says:
    Friday, November 17, 2017 at 9:21 am
    Quoted by Confessions @9:04AM :… The history books will show that Malcolm Turnbull was the prime minister who secured this achievement.”

    It [marriage equality] will have passed in spite of him. He cooperated with the Right to delay and obstruct reform for over two years. Now when the Right have been pretty much proved to be on the wrong side of history, he has decided to jump onto the winning bandwagon and share the credit. Looks like it’s working.

    Yes, the way the survey is being used to reboot Turnbull, yet again, is quite tedious.

    By any objective measure Turnbull has been as weak as piss on the issue, caving into to the demands of the nutters in his party, not campaigning beyond meekly saying he would vote yes, and then jumping on the bandwagon after the event. All credit and no responsibility.

    If the result was reversed, which is well off in the realm of hypothetical, because it was never likely, then you can bet the pundits would all be wondering aloud why Shorten didn’t wisely hold his council, as Turnbull did. Heads I win, tails you lose.

    The only thing the survey did was make it difficult for a handful of nutters, like Abbott, who’s electorate voted 75% against him. So yay! Turnbull beat Abbott! Kind-of. So now the vote in parliament, assuming all goes well, will be slightly more emphatic than it would have been otherwise. Leadership my arse.

  23. Doug Jones Leads Roy Moore By 8 As Alabama Voters Want A Senator With Honor

    A new Fox News poll shows Democrat Doug Jones leading Republican Roy Moore by 8 points as Alabama voters say that want a candidate that will represent the state with honor.

    Support from women is the key to the Democrat’s advantage in this red state, as Jones is their choice by 26 points (58-32 percent). The gap grows to 49 points among women under age 45 (69-20 percent), and he’s up by 11 among women ages 45 and over (51-40 percent). Jones even receives 19 percent support from Republican women (to Moore’s 68 percent).

  24. I agree with Ides. They Pyne twitter ‘hacking’ was most likely someone else who has access to his account thinking they were posting as themselves on their own account. I’ve seen it happen with Facebook and its why my employer uses Hootsuite to allow staff to post on the organisation’s facebook page – no chances of accidentally liking something as the organisaiton, thinking you’re liking and commenting as your own account.

  25. Frednk

    Its called equality under the law.

    Just as blacks cannot be refused commercial service in the States same goes for gays with baking cakes.

    Its not about a gay person finding a homophobic cake maker and forcing them to make a cake. Its about the law saying a homophobic baker cannot refuse to bake a cake because of the sexuality of that person.

    Its that simple. Just put racist instead of homophobic and look at it again.
    Questions like that are excuses to allow exemptions for discrimination in the law.
    There is no excuse for any of these exemptions. They are just discrimination. No one class of people should be refused service because of their race religion gender sexuality etc.

  26. If it is proven, not hinted at – if they do the crime – they do the time !!!!

    But was Franken’s a “crime”? He acted out a frat-boy prank for the happy-snap cameraman: an error of judgement and of taste. What’s the crime?

    He’s already being held to be guilty, in a fine display of partisan blowback. All the good he’s done as a Senator – on matters that have nothing to do with Trump or Russian influence peddling – is being negated by the publication of some hastily taken snaps of a stupid moment, years ago. “Let he who is without sin…” et cetera.

    You can’t just condemn someone out of hand without taking the context of their previous, present and future lives into consideration. Yet this is being done right now, from both sides of the aisle.

    It can only lead to a vortex of misery and confusion for those caught up in it. Sure, real crimes should be prosecuted, but some of what we are seeing is nothing more than wowserism and petty point-scoring over trivial, if obnoxious incidents.

    The theory is that one ill-advised act provides a blueprint of someone’s character, and all the well-advised things they did is forgotten. Perfect behaviour is the norm, and so only the imperfect is punished. I’m not sure if that’s the way it should be, every time. To insist on rigid application of “moral” standards seems harsh to me.

    In another Christian context, Jesus loved repentant sinners much more than he loved the holy joes up in the front pew of the temple condemning them (and praising themselves by default).

  27. Poor Samantha Maiden – currently trying to ‘justify’ saying Albo “slapped down” Shorten over the Pyne hack when it was likely nothing of the sort.

    I suspect, as Dan G has said, a staffer did the ‘liking’ and behind the scenes that was explained to Shorten (perhaps via Albo, perhaps via the govt). So this morning, after discussions the ALP line was ‘they’re satisfied security hasn’t been breached’.

    Maiden, ever the stirrer, especially since she appears to dislike Shorten, wanted to make it Albo v Shorten.

    I also think she might have been trying to run defence for the Libs since Dutton and Turnbull made opposing statements over Manus/NZ. Nothing like a good leadership scare to take the heat of your idol!

  28. I volunteer a different thought on Pyne’s twitter. A staffer fucked up and thought they where on their own account. Ive seen it happen right in front of me.

    Agreed. Back in the good old days before the web was invented, there was IRC and most of the people on the net were using “dumb terminals” at universities.

    Its wasn’t uncommon for someone to leave their terminal unattended and for their friends to say something on their behalf.

    I’d venture that what happened to Pyne wasn’t a hacked password but more of this nature. A staffer making a mistake – or even a staffer getting drunk and pulling a stunt. Or even someone close to Pyne being malicious.

    And if it was hacking (as in stealing/guessing/cracking password), I think the whole point of liking just one porn link was to make the point “you’ve been hacked” – knowing precisely the shitstorm that would follow.

  29. “I reckon Victoria is right that Trump voters support him because he’s legitimised their racism and sexism.”

    To a lesser extent, that is true of Howard and Abbott.

  30. cmclymer: Al Franken has called for an ethics investigation into his own conduct.

    Can we also get an ethics investigation to reveal which Members of Congress had to pay out $15 million total for sexual harassment settlements?

    That’s our money and our Congress. What gives?


    May have been posted before, love is love and it was such a beautiful mural.

    Whilst pell has created a lot of controversy I dont agree with destroying such a joyous mural of him. May have been someone who has a grudge against pell, as targeted only pell in the mural and not his dear friend next to him.

    Start censoring art and where do we end up, though Rolf Harris is a different matter.

  32. kezza2 @ #155 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:29 am

    Kay Jay

    You are such a lovely man, and very very funny, to boot.

    I feel for your Canberran family, and the distress of your nephew. But they have you in their corner which I’m sure brings them great consolation; as your kindnesses did for me.

    And as you so often say, be kind to yourself, as well.

    All the best.

    Kezza, Anytime you would like to boot me, please give a little notice as I will then be able to set you up with a free drink and put you at the head of the queue.

    Sort of the reverse of the old joke.

    The Italian funeral joke.

    One day, while having a latte at my favorite Starbucks, I noticed a most unusual Italian funeral. Instead of one hearse, there were two, one after the other, moving slowly down the street. Behind the hearse, there walked a man with a dog an a leash. Perhaps 80 other men walked behind him, single file.

    As this was very unusual, I went up to the man with the dog and asked about it as respectfully as I could. I don’t want to intrude on your sorrow, sir, but I couldn’t help notice this funeral procession. Who passed away, if I may ask. The man looked at me and said that the first hearse contained his wife. “She’d gotten real mad at the dog, and the dog attacked her and killed her.” “I see,” I said, but what about the second hearse? After a pause, the man said, “That’s my mother-in-law. She started to beat the dog, and and the dog went and killed her too.” There then passed a moment of silent brotherhood between me and the fellow.

    “Can I borrow the dog?”

    “Get in line.”

    I remember Dave Allen telling this one long, long ago.

    Not sure if that’s appropriate.

    Back to digging and blow torching creeping oxalis.

    Au revoir. ☮☮

  33. Asha:

    Trump’s popularity continues to decline so I’m sure there are Trump voters who have changed their minds about him since the election.

  34. The reason Dutton is complaining about a possible NZ-PNG deal is because, legal figleaves aside, the facts on the ground are that Australia is in actual control of the immigration prisons on Manus and Nauru and what happens in them.

    So a NZ-PNG deal without Australia is NZ pissing in the eye of the Australian Government. They are hoist on their own tendentious claims about technical responsibility for the prison camps.

    I hope NZ goes through with it.

  35. I remember Dave Allen telling this one long, long ago.
    Not sure if that’s appropriate.

    Dave was great, tone, manner, facial expressions and the finger. Shaun reminds me a bit of him at times.

  36. I think Jacinda Ardern is doing a number of things with the offer. Continuing the offer that came from the previous government, boosting her own stakes and reputation while in the background there is negotiations over the treatment of Kiwis in Aus and vice versa. I think its actually a case of politics and compassion entwinning.

  37. Confessions @ #188 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 10:58 am


    Trump’s popularity continues to decline so I’m sure there are Trump voters who have changed their minds about him since the election.

    I think it was Keith Olbermann who calculated, based upon Trump’s numbers now in the States that got him over the line, that he would lose in a landslide to Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College, should the election have been held one year on from when it was.

    Coulda, shoulda, I know, but you hope it carries forward to next time.

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