Newspoll, Essential and YouGov each offered evidence of break in Labor’s favour this week after a long period of stasis at 53-47. If that’s so, it may take another week or two for the BludgerTrack trend to adjust fully to the new reality. For the time being, Labor is up 0.7% on two-party preferred and two on the seat projection. Two sets of leadership numbers from Newspoll and Essential have a visible effect on the trend measures, with Turnbull heading south on both net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results on the sidebar.
IOM
For me Jacinda Adern continues to impress. Don’t forget she has Greens that want NZ to help the refugees. Winston Peters will go along as long as net numbers of immigration don’t change.
This is NZ and PNG working together to show Australia it is bullying and calling it out to the Australian people and international community in the process.
It s no coincidence Labor is supporting NZ
The fundamental issue here is that this kind of thing – joking about sexually assaulting someone, particularly by someone in a position of power – is exactly the kind of thing that feeds a culture that trivialises and diminishes actual sexual assaults. It is it the constant drip-drip-drip of these small acts of lack of respect for women in general and bodily autonomy specifically that breed a culture that does not respect those things.
And Franken’s other contributions don’t excuse it. Good works aren’t some kind of coffee shop loyalty card where you stand up for minorities six times and get your next (simulated) grope free.
This doesn’t mean he’s a bad person, or that redemption is not possible.
Too much grump goin’ on.
Watch this and imagine each dancer is a particular PB poster. I will give you a hint – the first one (after Pharrell Williams) is GG. BB is the guy in the flouro.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbZSe6N_BXs
IOM
Its also important to note the politics has changed. With the survey results Labor knows they can offset the fears about boats in those 17 seats susceptible to it with all the other seats that voted for fairness equality and compassion in the postal vote.
The whole edifice of fear of the boats has been revealed to be very hollow.
Instead what we have is a country that truly is for a fair go and the reason that the lNP have gone hard right is due to religious branch stacking of party branches.
Good morning all,
Turnbull is cocky atm after his SSM survey ” win”. His hubris will not end well for him.
He will overreach and at some point be forced to retreat and buckle to conservatives within.
Cheers.
This is interesting from the pre-election Bludgertrack I linked earlier. Unfortunatelly the “resptrend” graph seems to have been lost to the inter-cobwebs. It suggests that using respondent allocated would have made Bludgertrack incredibly accurate (ironically, it was probably the Reachtel that gave Bludgertrack a slight L-NP lean).
Note: the ridiculous YouGov poll, and it’s wayward respondent allocations, was not in the field.
PhoenixRed
Things are getting really interesting
Ale Retweeted
John Schindler
John Schindler
@20committee
BOOM!
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
Reza Zarrab (gold trader close to Turkish President Erdogan) is cooperating w/fed prosecutors in money-laundering case & may be giving info on ties btwn MishaFlynn & Turkish government‼️
Sure as eggs, there will be someone who tries it, and takes it to court, “proving” the Abbotts and the Bernardis of this world were correct in their apprehension of some kind of gay “takeover”of society.
While you can legislate againsthomophobia, or racism or whatever, you can’t cure it by legislation. There will always be homophobes and there will always be racists. All you do by legislating against it is drive it underground.
People whose homophobic position stems from religious upbringing are among the most intractable. They don’t worry about being biased against gays when their Bible or their Koran tells them God says that’s an OK attitude. As they see it, God is the guy who controls the universe and who has final say on the progress of their immortal souls. A couple of guys or girls wanting to get married is peanuts compared to eternity. You’ll very rarely win them over, because if you do succeed, it means they have to abandon their religion first.
I don’t think people with religious objections should be forced to provide services to people whose act they are about to (in their eyes) bless with a cake or a performance they have been requested to provide. While racists would have a hard time arguing that black people chose to be black (and so can, in a weird way, un-choose it or else sit in the back of the bus), many homophobes will argue all day,all night and into next week on whether homosexuality is a matter of choice or genetics. Sin is a matter of intent, so if they believe their religion says homosexuality is a sin, then they axiomatically believe that homosexuals choose to be sinners. Knowingly aiding and abetting a sin in its commission is also likely to be a sin, so there you have it: no cake for you, laddie (or ladies).
Forcing religious conscientious objectors to abandon this position is not only a hard ask, but a counter-productive one. Just go next door and buy a cake from someone who’s happy to serve you. Move on, and hope their kids take their Safe Schools lessons in good heart. The next generation will be less disapproving.
Why ruin a happy wedding with a miserable shit-fight that no-one can really win?
Essential services, particularly state administered, are a different thing altogether. There the onus is on the service provider to supply vital functions, and there should be no discrimination whatsoever permitted in providing them. I’m not sure that wedding cakes are an essential service.
Jobson Groethe is back on the job again. Malcolm thinks that Corporate tax cuts WILL allow more Jobson’s to be employed .
Or for his employer to buy a bigger boat.
Link to story
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amp/does-cooperating-witness-have-info-flynn-tie-turkey-n821341
Vic, I reckon the plan is to pressure the Flynns into opening the can of worms and spilling the beans.
BB
If we follow your argument there is no point what so ever to anti discrimination laws. The whole civil rights laws passed by the US are irrelevant because they are going to do it anyway.
Very piss weak argument. We know these laws work. We even saw them stop Trump being racist in enacting his travel ban.
There is no excuse to not have discrimination laws. They work.
Remember the saying of lawyers. The exception proves the rule.
In law its the extremes that challenge the law. However like with Bolt they may hate the ruling but the ruling gets made.
No free to all for hate and division based on race religion sexuality or gender.
Yes, the way the survey is being used to reboot Turnbull, yet again, is quite tedious.
The ‘survey’ should provide further evidence that he should be booted – by the voters. Or maybe ‘re-booted’ if we take the first booting to be that by his party in 2009. Anyone who doesn’t want the ugly right directing the affairs of the country – vote Labor, vote Green, put L/NP and their fellow travellers One Nation last and second last.
While we’re on the US:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/360812-mueller-issues-first-subpoena-to-trump-campaign-for-russia-documents-report
GuardianAus: Same-sex marriage bill does not hinder religious freedom, says Turnbull trib.al/dZ2BE0B
First post from a lurker of several years. And first, if long overdue, thanks to William and to all who contribute. Your vantages, insights and multiplicity of sources – not to say your time in making them known – are very greatly appreciated.
Which isn’t to say I’m a proponent of false equivalence or equal weighting. I, too, know how to use the scroll wheel, and do. What prompts my belated writing today, however, is that Victoria and Phoenix Red and their posts are not among them and, for me – and the multiplier of family and friends also now introduced to PB – PB would be diminished without them.
Again, my thanks to all involved.
Despite all the kumbia and warm feelings over SSM there is no way that any of that will flow over to the issue of AS.
Australians do not want a return to daily arrivals by boat and that will not change short term. Australians are quiet happy to continue their three wise monkey impersonation of hear see and speak no evil on the issue. They just want the issue of AS to go away and do not care and or do not want to know how that is achieved.
It is going to take a lot more than just a successful SSM campaign to change that.
Cheers.
victoria says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 11:14 am
PhoenixRed
Things are getting really interesting
Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
Reza Zarrab (gold trader close to Turkish President Erdogan) is cooperating w/fed prosecutors in money-laundering case & may be giving info on ties btwn MishaFlynn & Turkish government
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Throw in Mueller’s upcoming interview of Hope Hicks – one of Trumps closest advisors and councillor – who has seen and heard it all from Trump – then maybe there is a big 23rd November in the US – with Trump being the Thanksgiving turkey
victoria @ #207 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 8:14 am
I still maintain that, despite the wishes of some on here and elsewhere, that the Trump crime syndicate will not be taken down by any electoral shenanigans, but by simple plain old fashioned financial crimes.
The authorities will never, ever prove that Russia, or anywhere else for that matter, affected the outcome of the 2016 election. It’s also highly hypocritical of the Americans to cry foul of interference in their system since they’ve been actively interfering in the political systems of countries on every continent on Earth (barring Antarctica obviously), and been actively involved in overthrowing democratically elected governments as well.
Russian money laundering – yes;
Russian interference – no.
Equally sure as eggs, there will be some dim-witted baker who will be happy to forgo business for the desire to be a martyr to the cause.
If you want to sell to the public, then you can’t discriminate. Do that in private.
Doyley
You are not paying attention to the survey results.
Wide bay voted for fairness and empathy. Most of the country did. Argue the refugee policy making it about empathy and fairness will win the day.
All Labor has to do is make sure its Western Sydney seats have enough issues to off set the fear campaign when election results are close.
Appeasing the right is not in Labor’s interest thats where the takout of the survey results should resonate with Labor.
Stop letting the LNP wedge Labor by saying empathy and compassion is weak. Its not and the voters as revealed in the survey don’t see it that way.
What is weak is not having a strong argument and sticking with it.
They are two different things.
Bushfire Bill you completely miss the point. The issue isn’t people who go out of their way to acquire goods or services from those who they think might – or they know will – have objections to the purpose to which those goods or services are to be used. It’s people who on asking are told “sorry, we don’t / won’t serve your type”. Or worse, providers of goods and services who *advertise* “we don’t / won’t serve that type”. Do you really want a society in which either of those is lawful?
Yes, that’s pretty much what the rest of my post suggested. 🙂
I’m hoping it will wear off in a few days.
turnbull could have got same sex marriage through in time for weddings before xmas.
but I suspect the whole time line was set to eliminate the possibility of gay weddings around xmas time, the conservative heads in the lnp would have burst.
fergushunter: The PM should be careful about his habit of interviewing people at press conferences or he might end up with his own @SkyNewsAust show.
Toby Esterhase,
Agreed, just because some will break the law doesn’t mean we should cater to their prejudice in legislation.
Dan Gulberry says: Friday, November 17, 2017 at 11:28 am
I still maintain that, despite the wishes of some on here and elsewhere, that the Trump crime syndicate will not be taken down by any electoral shenanigans, but by simple plain old fashioned financial crimes.
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I have said on here repeatedly – that the Trump Crime Family – IF they are taken down, it will not be for anything he has done since being elected – but more likely for STATE crimes and by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman for economic crimes against the State of NY – under the RICO ACT ( Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act )
The RICO Act focuses specifically on racketeering, and it allows the leaders of a syndicate to be tried for the crimes which they ordered others to do or assisted them in doing, closing a perceived loophole that allowed a person who instructed someone else to, for example, murder, to be exempt from the trial because they did not actually commit the crime personally.
Simon Katich/PhoenixR
This tweet sums up where this is going
Eric Garland
Eric Garland
@ericgarland
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29m
Replying to @ericgarland and 2 others
There were two groups lobbying and connected to Erdogan: Mike Flynn, the Typhoid Mary of Treason, and a whole host of traitorous Americans: Giuliani and many others.
Exactly right. Legislation can’t hope to stop sly, quiet discrimination of the “sorry, we’re all booked up that weekend” type. However it sure can stop discrimination of the “big sign in the front window that says No Poofters Allowed” type.
guytaur I think Doyley is spot on.
Psphesos posted on how bearded muslim boat people were always an effective tactic the lnp would use against labor.
it wont change, love is love, equality is equality but fear of boats will always be there to be used and manipulated.
Dan G
As evidenced by latest developments, there is more to this rodeo than Russian interference
guytaur: Just so long as he doesn’t accidentally end up with an ABC show – he’d have an office of profit under the crown!
http://www.smh.com.au/money/a-billionaires-explanation-of-how-the-economic-machine-works-20171115-gzm6n5.html
the danger to Australia that howards housing policy has brought us. growth driven by debt borrowed against inflated house prices driven by government subsidies to investors.
When someone interprets a comment you make a homophobic (or sexist, or racist or equivalent), the correct response is never to blame them for interpreting it wrong. try to learn why what you said was interpreted that way and preferably if you’re a decent human being you will in the future try not to say things in a way that people interpret as viewing them as being worth less than everyone else based on their identity. If one person interprets what you’re saying as homophobic, then it’s unlikely that other people wouldn’t also have interpreted it that way. This frames everything else you’re saying through that prism making it harder for your other points to come across.
It is also never worse to be called a homophobe (or racist or whatever) than to suffer the homophobic slur. Homophobia is lived continually through peoples lives. My sister had drunk local footballers knock on her door and tell her she was going to hell because she had vote yes signs up, and they were drunk and thought it would be funny. You are not the victim if your statement can and was interpreted as homophobic, and do not try to claim you are.
I think we will probably see a bit of a recovery for Turnbull and the Coalition in the short-term in the wake of the SSM vote. Turnbull’s response to the reault was pretty well-played on his part, and he actually somewhat resembled a leader for the first time in a long time. Additionally, as much as the lunatic right will whinge and try to delay and obstruct the vote, the sheer number of MPs and Senators willing to vote Yes will make their efforts pretty ineffectual, assuming Turnbull stands his ground and doesn’t cave to the Coalition’s conservative wing yet again. (Big assumption, I know!)
However, all the other problems afflicting this government still remain, and the bounce will be short-lived in my opinion. Between the duel-citizenship crisis, the slow-motion trainwreck that is the NBN, the disgraceful situation on Manus Island, Abbot and his buddies’ continued white-anting, and the general incompetence and lack of direction on display, I don’t think there are many good times ahead for Turnbull or his inevitable replacement.
To be clear, I meant “you” figuratively, not literally. I don’t think “you” are a homophobe BB 🙂
Boris
The whole edifice of the fear of boats for Labor is the LNP painting Labor as weak
This now includes painting Labor as weak on terror and pedophiles going back a little to some in parliament before the survey.
Labor is not weak on any of these issues.
Labor is fighting back on these issues.
All Labor has to do is add refugees to this list.
These are not economic migrants. These are not illegal arrivals. These are refugees as found to be by the right wing mob in charge now.
We know the boats have not stopped and Labor will reveal this when in government they lift the secrecy.
The whole campaign of the LNP is Labor is weak. Just like May did in the UK election. It is Crosby and Textor tactics.
I think Labor is ready for that. This survey now tells Labor in no uncertain terms the whole fear and division thing does NOT resonate with Australians.
Labor loses when it is painted as weak. Its time Labor started being strong in all its policy areas. On refugees it can be because its regional solution is a strong position and should be argued strongly.
Don’t fall for the LNP wedge based on a myth. A myth that only counts if the election is close. With the right imploding and dividing this is not the time for Labor to be appeasing the right.
I posted this link last night on the previous thread.
It’s bizarre to think this is going on in a Country less than 10 km from where I sit!
Hun Sen has always been a Dictator it’s just that he existed in a Country that was a democracy with no effective Opposition.
Opposition has grown over time and the results of the last election suggested that this would be his last time in power.
He has regularly used the Courts to remove opponents.
In the last 12 months he has closed independent media outlets and some NGO operations in Cambodia.
This court ruling disbanding the main opposition Party and banning members from running for elections for 5 years has gutted opposition to his Government.
As well as the Government he controls the Courts and the Military so there exists no effective mechanism for any opposition to fight back especially in the short to medium term.
Only through outside international pressure by Governments can change possibly occur now.
The international community created this mess through their negligence when reestablishing Cambodia from the ashes of Pol Pot.
They allowed him to be in a position to seize power initially and they have stood by and facilitated his regime since.
I am interested, if not very hopeful, at what our Government will say and do about the matter.
Will remain complicit with Hun Sen and fund next years now pointless, sham elections.
Will we continue to line officials pockets with obscene amounts of money so that one or two asylum seekers can relocate their?
Unfortunately I think we will.
I hope I’m wrong!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-16/cambodias-top-court-orders-opposition-party-dissolved/9159762
Malcolm Roberts should have attended this conference:
RichardDiNatale: Cory Bernardi is a grub. It’s obvious to anyone watching his juvenile conduct over the past 24 hours that it’s not national security concerns driving him but homophobia.
Surely that should read Flat Earthers from across the plane assembled…
It baffles me that genuine, non-ironic Flat Earthers actually exist. Until recently, I assumed they were all in on the joke! I was stunned when I discovered that there are people who, in 2017, actually believe the Earth is flat. How goddamn stupid can you be?
I mean, even if you are insane enough believe that the entire scientific community, NASA, astronauts, etc, are part of the conspiracy, surely booking a few plane flights across the world would be enough to demonstrate the world is actually round. US to Europe, Europe to Asia/Australia, Australia to US, and its proven.
I am looking forward to it
@BOConnorMP
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14h
A lot more to come out about the AWU raid conspiracy #auspol
Guardian Australia
@GuardianAus
Embedded
Michaelia Cash to face new Senate hearing over tip-off about police raid on AWU – politics live
citizen @ #235 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 7:52 am
I wonder how they would explain the difference if they rang a random telephone number in California and asked what the time was?
Royal Commission recommends the closure of Don Dale.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-17/nt-royal-commission-calls-closure-of-don-dale-systemic-changes/9160460
Imagine if a business decided it wasn’t going to comply with hygiene laws because it conflicted with the owner’s beliefs (that isn’t too far fetched, actually).
If you don’t want accidentally bake a cake for a gay person, stop baking cakes.
The number of bakers who leave the business as a result would be vanishingly small.
As I said before, BB is advocating for the baker to have the right to be homophobic while his customers lose their right to complain about it. Tolerance is a two way street.
citizen @ #231 Friday, November 17th, 2017 – 11:39 am
Was that “cat scratches”, or “c@t scratches”? I think we may have another case right here on PB 🙂
BiGD –
Yes, the situation in Cambodia is very troubling.
20/30 years ago (in the good old days?) I would have expected a strong commitment on our government’s part to clearly, forcefully, work within the international community to try to apply pressure to return to accepted democratic/human rights norms in a case like Cambodia.
But with the passing of time these concerns have slipped further and further down the list of priorities – way behind economic concerns and local political concerns.
Plus democracy itself is in crisis around the world. How can we make a case for democracy in Cambodia when it appears to be failing across the West and being rejected in places like Turkey, Thailand, Egypt.
We certainly don’t make any real attempts anymore at cracking down on bribery or corrupt practices by Australian companies overseas. We don’t stand up to economically powerful countries (eg China) over human rights issues. Basically we have no moral authority, no influence and no will at any level to try to make the world a better place – just to make sure there’s still a buck to be made and a local election contest to win.
I do despair.
I watched Turnbull’s SSM victory speech and all I could think was ‘fake’. Acting.
His over-enthusiastic speech and his facial expressions struck me like a TV evangelist trying to gee up the audience of believers. The only thing I thought was heart-felt was the relief that the r-w rump had lost one. But now they might split off and decimate the party anyway and the banking RC that is now being pushed again by the Nats (with a lot of ALP support) makes him wedged from both sides within his own party/govt.