BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

As chaos mounts in Canberra, the situation on the polling front remains eerily quiet.

The recent action and excitement in federal politics continues to make no impression on the polls. This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack aggregate nudges very slightly to the Coalition on two-party preferred, but the vagaries of state breakdowns cause Labor to pick up two on the seat projection, with a gain apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. The only new addition this week is the regular Essential Research result, which provided no new data on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,510 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. Barney in Go Dau @ #1236 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 11:11 am

    briefly @ #1230 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:05 am

    WWP, quite obviously, if there are persons whose participation in the electoral process is impaired, those persons are dual citizens. They are not “privileged”. They are in permanent jeopardy.

    A person only has a need for one citizenship and that would be considered a Right.

    There is no basic need for a person to hold additional citizenships so they would rightly be considered a privilege.

    Spot on!

  2. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:11 am
    briefly @ #1230 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:05 am

    WWP, quite obviously, if there are persons whose participation in the electoral process is impaired, those persons are dual citizens. They are not “privileged”. They are in permanent jeopardy.
    A person only has a need for one citizenship and that would be considered a Right.

    There is no basic need for a person to hold additional citizenships so they would rightly be considered a privilege.

    The despots have too-often used citizenship to wring political control from their populations. The British did it. The Romanovs and both their successors and predecessors did it. Abbott wanted to do it here. China does it. It’s not for nothing that in the US citizenship is an inalienable right, and there is no impairment placed on dual citizens.

    It was decided in 2002 that Australian citizens could be lawfully become dual citizens without relinquishing their Australian standing. We really have moved on from 1898. Dual citizens should be treated equally invert sense. Democracy relies on this.

  3. poroti says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:55 am
    Equal citizenship rights for all. One each !

    Even the Imperialists in 1898 were less severe than this.

  4. Pseudo Cud chewer says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 11:57 am
    But is there any chance to hold a new referendum and abandon Brexit?

    Brexit can be rescinded anytime by the UK, according to the lawyer who drafted Article 50. And further referendums can be held at the discretion of the Parliament.

  5. Windhover @ #1121 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:45 am

    What amounts to reasonable steps will depend on the individual circumstances. It is plausible in some circumstances doing nothing might be a reasonable step.

    It most certainly is not. The government ran that exact argument and got their asses handed to them over it.

    I believe the HC said something to the effect that “a MP need show no more effort than a journalist or other researcher seeking to catch out an ineligible MP”.

    Doing nothing only works so long as your political opponents also do nothing. The prudent and eligible candidate does due diligence to 1) discover any foreign citizenships they may hold and 2) renounce the ones that are renounceable.

  6. Poroti

    Australian citizens acquire their status as foreign citizens by the operation of foreign laws, whether sought or not.

    Are you suggesting that an Australian citizen who finds they have a foreign citizenship should lose their Australian citizenship? Should this apply only if they fail to renounce their foreign citizenship? What if they did not know about their foreign citizenship? Would they be deprived of their Australian citizenship, in the same way as they are now deprived of their political rights? What if they also lost their foreign citizenship? They would then be left stateless.

    It is because of these and other vagaries that Australia permits its citizens to hold dual citizenship. This protects Australian citizens from the uncertain consequence of foreign laws. There is a contradiction in Australia. Dual citizens will be legally permitted, but they will also be officially regarded as dubious.

    To mine, the stain placed on dual citizens reminds me of the devilry of ON.

  7. BiGD

    My point was and is that if you need to fully renounce citizenship (receive conformation of renouncement) to be eligible to stand for federal Parliament that creates a significant barrier that someone who is solely an Australian does not have.

    Is a delay, ONLY if a dual citizen who has decided they want to be a candidate hasn’t bothered to deal with the matter in advance, of having to wait to the next election ‘significant’?

    I don’t think so.

  8. Russia First: Trump Admits He Trusts Putin Over The Entire U.S. Intelligence Community

    “Every time he sees me, he says, ‘I didn’t do that.’ And I believe, I really believe, that when he tells me that, he means it.”

    In another stunning example of just how far this president will go to please the Russians that helped elect him last year, Donald Trump admitted on Saturday that he trusts Vladimir Putin when he denies any involvement in last year’s presidential election.

    “He said he didn’t meddle. He said he didn’t meddle. I asked him again. You can only ask so many times,” Trump said aboard Air Force One, according to CNN.

    Putin, a shrewd former KGB officer, has clearly figured out a way to get Trump to believe anything he’ll say, but the U.S. intelligence community – and the American people – have long understood that Russia was, in fact, behind the hack in last year’s presidential election.

    As David Corn noted in a tweet on Saturday, every major agency in Trump’s own intelligence community believes Putin and Russia were behind the attack.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/11/trump-admits-takes-vladimir-putins-word-entire-u-s-intelligence-community.html

  9. poroti says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 12:02 pm
    briefly

    Everyone having the same number of citizenship rights sounds pretty equal.

    The Soviet solution to the question of nationality. Will you also sentence the dual citizen to internal exile? Or force their rendition to another jurisdiction? In the USSR, passports would show whether a person was a “Russian” (that is, a native Russian); a citizen of Russia (a non-native); or a Jew.

    The desire to slice and dice the community by reference to citizenship is inherently xenophobic.

  10. Moron President Trump Celebrates Veterans Day By Telling America To Stop Insulting Putin

    Trump honored US veterans on Veterans Day by telling them that hostile foreign power never attacked their country and tried to undermine the democracy that they fought and sacrificed for. Trump can’t pretend to be a patriot even on Veterans Day.

    The President is suggesting that America stop insulting Putin by trying to uncover the truth about what happened during the 2016 election. Trump is either the biggest moron to occupy the White House, or the biggest traitor to ever occupy the White House. There is a strong possibility that the answer is both. Donald Trump is a moron traitor who is making it obvious that he is owned by Putin and Russia

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/11/moron-president-trump-celebrates-veterans-day-telling-america-stop-insulting-putin.html

  11. Trump’s Own CIA Smacks Down His Claim That We Should Trust Vladimir Putin

    The CIA remains confident in its conclusion that Russia waged a disinformation campaign in the U.S. to influence the election in Donald Trump’s favor.

    The Central Intelligence Agency shot down Donald Trump’s supportive comments of Vladimir Putin on Saturday, saying they stand by their initial assessment that Russia did, in fact, interfere in the 2016 election.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/11/trumps-cia-smacks-claim-trust-vladimir-putin.html

    In a statement, the CIA said the agency’s director, Mike Pompeo, remains confident in their January 2017 report, which concluded that Russia waged a disinformation campaign in the U.S. to influence the election in Donald Trump’s favor.

    “The director stands by and has always stood by the January 2017 intelligence community assessment entitled: ‘Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections.’ The intelligence assessment with regard to Russian election meddling has not changed,” said a CIA spokesperson, according to The Hill.

    The CIA’s new comments stand in stark contrast to the reality-detached president, who said on Saturday that he “really” believes Putin when he says that Russia did not meddle in the presidential campaign.

  12. Facepalm!

    Republican voters at the event in Alabama were defiant in their support for Moore.

    “From what I’ve read, it seems like this 14-year-old girl who is now 50-something has a somewhat checkered past,” Johnny Creel, 56, an insurance broker wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat, said outside the event.

    “You have to judge a story like that on the credibility of the accuser. . . . I don’t think it happened.”

    Willie A. Casey, one of the few African Americans at the event, said the story is the “hottest thing going in Birmingham,” especially in the black community. But he said the allegations have not changed his position.

    “I believe in [Moore’s] biblical principles,” said Casey, 70, comparing the United States to “Sodom and Gomorrah.” “I think in America, we’ve gone so far out of the Bible, someone needs to bring it back.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/roy-moore-alabama-voters-will-see-through-this-charade-of-sexual-misconduct-claims/2017/11/11/47218cde-c6e5-11e7-84bc-5e285c7f4512_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_alabama-1121am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.222c11c23094

  13. Windhover

    My gut feeling is that the High Court will rule out the Labor two unfortunately.

    However I would suggest that Bill Shorten move to refer the WHOLE House to the HC. Effectively it is an audit. Given that his two are now exposed he has nothing to lose, unless there are others with issues – hope not

  14. CTar1 says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 12:24 pm

    C…this essentially would permit foreign powers to determine who will or will not be qualified to seek election her; to abridge the political rights of Australian citizens and electors.

    Renunciation carried out in the required form was specified in Sykes. Renunciation does not rely on reciprocation or acknowledgement to take effect. It is a unilateral act.

  15. Kim Jong un says Trump is a lunatic old man who wants to start a nuclear war. Trump’s response?

    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 42m42 minutes ago
    Why would Kim Jong-un insult me by calling me “old,” when I would NEVER call him “short and fat?” Oh well, I try so hard to be his friend – and maybe someday that will happen!

    Yes the problem with Jong-un’s statement is that he said president man-baby is old. FFS!

  16. Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 50m50 minutes ago
    Does the Fake News Media remember when Crooked Hillary Clinton, as Secretary of State, was begging Russia to be our friend with the misspelled reset button? Obama tried also, but he had zero chemistry with Putin.

    “Chemistry”? Odd way to refer to relations between two leaders.

  17. daretotread says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 12:30 pm
    Windhover

    My gut feeling is that the High Court will rule out the Labor two unfortunately.

    However I would suggest that Bill Shorten move to refer the WHOLE House to the HC. Effectively it is an audit. Given that his two are now exposed he has nothing to lose, unless there are others with issues – hope not

    There is no proposal to refer Labor’s members to the HC. Their qualification to be chosen is not in doubt….not at all.

    Rather, Turnbull has asked them to resign. As if! He knows this is pure theatre. His own numbers are in peril. This is the underlying and irresistible pressure.

  18. Trump Busted By Congressman Who Has Seen The Same Intel For Knowingly Lying About Russia

    Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) used Veterans Day to serve his country by pointing out that President Donald Trump is lying about Russia hacking the election that he “won.”

    Ted Lieu ‎@tedlieu

    I have seen the classified information on Russian hacking. @realDonaldTrump has received classified briefings. I can tell you that @POTUS is LYING. Trump knows the Kremlin hacked America last year. https://

    Unlike the draft-dodging president, Lieu is a colonel in the United States Air Force Reserves. He served four years on active duty as a member of the JAG Corps.

    And also unlike the draft-dodging president, Lieu seems to actually care about this country.

    Republicans have become the party of Putin and sexual predators, as they stand behind this president knowing that he is not loyal to this country and knowing that he bragged about assaulting women. They are not doing even the most cursory imitation of their jobs to protect our country. Instead, they have become a the Trump party – a party that puts serving their own self-interest as the first and only priority, no matter who it hurts, including their own country.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/11/11/ted-lieu-calls-trump-lying-russian-hacking.html

  19. ‘Everyone thought it was weird’: Deputy DA who served with Roy Moore says ‘he dated high school girls’

    According to a series of tweets from CNN senior national correspondent Alexander Marquardt, a Florida attorney who served as a deputy district attorney alongside Roy Moore has come forward to allege inappropriate behavior from the Republican Senate nominee.

    “It was common knowledge that Roy dated high school girls, everyone we knew thought it was weird,” former Deputy DA Theresa Jones reportedly told CNN. “We wondered why someone his age would hang out at high school football games and the mall.”

    “Late 70’s and 80’s – at that time and atmosphere it was weird he was dating teenagers but you really wouldn’t say anything to someone like that,” Jones continued.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/everyone-thought-it-was-weird-deputy-da-who-served-with-moore-confirms-he-dated-high-school-girls/

  20. By the way, were leave sought to refer the whole House to the HC, the HC would doubtless decline. It does not do “audits”. That is not a judicial function. The HC settles legal disputes.

  21. Trump throws Twitter tantrum over Russia relations and Kim Jong-un calling him ‘old’

    President Donald Trump on Saturday lashed out at North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un after state-run media called him a “lunatic old man.”

    North Korea also criticized Trump as a “warmonger” as the president toured Asia to drum up support against Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

    Trump also lashed out at the “haters and fools” who had criticized his meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin. The two spoke together during the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Vietnam.

    Trump faced a backlash after saying he believed Putin, who told him that Russia did not meddle in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/trump-throws-twitter-tantrum-over-russia-relations-and-kim-jong-un-calling-him-old/

  22. <blockquote“But I try not to think with my gut. If I'm serious about understanding the world, thinking with anything besides my brain, as tempting as that might be, is likely to get me into trouble.”
    Carl Sagan

  23. “It was common knowledge that Roy dated high school girls, everyone we knew thought it was weird,” former Deputy DA Theresa Jones reportedly told CNN. “We wondered why someone his age would hang out at high school football games and the mall.”

    The more you read about this the more disturbing it becomes.

  24. Confessions says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 12:46 pm
    “It was common knowledge that Roy dated high school girls, everyone we knew thought it was weird,” former Deputy DA Theresa Jones reportedly told CNN. “We wondered why someone his age would hang out at high school football games and the mall.”
    The more you read about this the more disturbing it becomes.

    It all sounds so disgustingly predatory, fess.

  25. Bushfire’s comment on Murphy has validity, not necessarily criticizing Murphy herself but the press gallery in general.
    All of their articles on the Government’s citizenship problems include the sad clause that the “problems weren’t the fault of Malcolm”, but poor party administration or slack MPs.

    Like energy, the budget and everthing else it isn’t Malcolm’s fault, which completely misses the point, whose fault it is isn’t the issue, it is who is going to fix it.

  26. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/poland-independence-day-march-warsaw-far-right-fascists-a8050181.html

    Poland has seen a surge in nationalist thinking and activity since the collapse of communism, following years of living behind the iron curtain. The country is believed to have the fifth highest number of far-right activists in the world, behind Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic and the United States.

    In the 2015 election, anti-EU populist nationalist party the League of Polish Families performed well, seemingly emboldening those with far-right leanings.

    The march and the accompanying media attention has overshadowed the official state observances and other patriotic events.

    Some participants expressed sympathy for xenophobic or white supremacist ideas, with one banner reading: “White Europe of brotherly nations.”

    Poland urges citizens to ‘breed like rabbits’ as birth rate falls

    One participant interviewed on state television station TVP said he was taking part “to remove Jewry from power.”

    Participants marched under the slogan “We Want God”, words from an old Polish religious song that the US President, Donald Trump, quoted during a visit to Warsaw earlier this year.

    Speakers talked of standing up against liberals and defending “traditional” Polish Christian values.

    Here is White xenophobia, Euro-style. It is nationalist, clerical, anti-semitic, patriarchal, militant and reactionary.

    We should be standing up against these sentiments. The LNP, however, and their alternates in ON, are promoting at least some of them.

  27. It all sounds so disgustingly predatory, fess.

    Indeed it does. Child grooming comes to mind, plus I’ve always been creeped out by those who take their religious belief to extreme levels.

  28. Confessions says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 1:03 pm
    It all sounds so disgustingly predatory, fess.
    Indeed it does. Child grooming comes to mind, plus I’ve always been creeped out by those who take their religious belief to extreme levels.

    Yes. The clerics are spooky. All that dressing up, the allusions to secrets, the obsession with ritual. All highly questionable 🙂

  29. “However I would suggest that Bill Shorten move to refer the WHOLE House to the HC. Effectively it is an audit. ”

    Auditing isn’t really the role of the HC. They’d likely return each case where there was no evidence presented to them without looking further.

  30. What the hell is going on?’: Ex-evangelical goes on epic attack of GOP defending ‘child molesting and Nazis’

    Appearing on MSNBC’s AM Joy, former evangelical – and son a a famous pastor — angrily tore into the Republican party for backing “rape, child molesting and neo-Nazis,” in a furious broadside.

    “Think about the Republican Party now,” he continued as his voice rose. “Throw some words out that are associated with them: mass shootings, Milo, Trump, Moore, Bannon, rape, child molesting, neo-Nazis, white supremacy. What the hell is going on with the Republican Party?”

    I’m not shocked by Donald Trump, he’s an ass. I’m not shocked by Roy Moore. he’s a loud mouth, a gun-toting fool,” he exclaimed. “What I’m shocked by is the complicity. We are in a political climate that’s built on one lie after another.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/11/what-the-hell-is-going-on-ex-evangelical-goes-on-epic-rant-at-gop-defending-pes-and-nazis/

  31. “What I’m shocked by is the complicity. We are in a political climate that’s built on one lie after another.

    Where were these people the last 2 years when Trump was behaving in deplorable fashion during the primaries, saying untrue things about Mexicans, African-Americans and Hillary Clinton? And where were these people last year during the campaign when Trump bragged about assaulting women, boasted about his pick-up lines for 12yos, and mocking disabled reporters?

    They were complicit, it’s just that now with accusations of child abuse thrown into the mix it becomes harder to stay silent.

  32. briefly

    C…this essentially would permit foreign powers to determine who will or will not be qualified to seek election her; to abridge the political rights of Australian citizens and electors.

    That’s what reasonable efforts to renounce come in ….

  33. Where were these people the last 2 years when Trump was behaving in deplorable fashion during the primaries, saying untrue things about Mexicans, African-Americans and Hillary Clinton?

    Chanting “lock her up” and mumbling incoherent gibberish about emails?

  34. When asked Trump said he couldn’t comment on Wilson, he wasn’t across it as ‘l don’t watch much Tv’.

    Apparently the reports he does are ‘fake news’.

  35. McCain blasts Trump: ‘There’s nothing “America First”‘ about believing Putin

    • Sen. John McCain criticized President Donald Trump on Saturday after Trump said he believed Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russia did not interfere in the 2016 election.
    • McCain said believing Putin and not the US intelligence community “is not only naive but also places our national security at risk.”
    • Trump has long been reluctant to accept that Russia interfered in the election, and he called former intelligence officials who said otherwise “political hacks.”

    There’s nothing ‘America First’ about taking the word of a KGB colonel over that of the American intelligence community,” McCain said in a statement. “There’s no ‘principled realism’ in cooperating with Russia to prop up the murderous Assad regime, which remains the greatest obstacle to a political solution that would bring an end to the bloodshed in Syria.”

    http://www.businessinsider.sg/mccain-blasts-trump-for-believing-putin-on-russia-election-meddling-2017-11/

  36. Investigators probe Trump knowledge of campaign’s Russia dealings: sources

    Special counsel Robert Mueller’s team has questioned Sam Clovis, co-chairman of President Donald Trump’s election campaign, to determine if Trump or top aides knew of the extent of the campaign team’s contacts with Russia, two sources familiar with the investigation said on Friday.

    “The ultimate question Mueller is after is whether candidate Trump and then President-elect Trump knew of the discussions going on with Russia, and who approved or even directed them,” said one source. “That is still just a question.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-investigation/investigators-probe-trump-knowledge-of-campaigns-russia-dealings-sources-idUSKBN1DB04J

  37. CTar1 says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    The point is that renunciation does not depend on receiving acknowledgement from a counter-party.

    Providing it’s carried out in a relevant form, an act of renunciation is sufficient to free a dual citizen from the impairment imposed by 44(i).

    I doubt there’s a distinction to be made between “full” renunciation and some lesser renunciation, as if “full” renunciation can only be said to have occurred when it’s been followed by acknowledgement or revocation. One renounces something by making a unilateral declaration in a relevant form. That’s it. What the other party does is up to them.

  38. Day 295

    FBI: lying
    CIA: lying
    NSA: lying
    Comey: lying
    Clapper: lying
    Hillary: lying
    Obama: lying
    Bush Jr: lying
    Bush Sr: lying
    Papadopoulos: lying
    Media: lying
    Democrats: lying
    Corker: lying
    McCain: lying
    Puerto Rico: lying
    Gold Star widow: lying

    Putin: not lying

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