BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

As chaos mounts in Canberra, the situation on the polling front remains eerily quiet.

The recent action and excitement in federal politics continues to make no impression on the polls. This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack aggregate nudges very slightly to the Coalition on two-party preferred, but the vagaries of state breakdowns cause Labor to pick up two on the seat projection, with a gain apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. The only new addition this week is the regular Essential Research result, which provided no new data on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,510 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”


  1. ratsak.

    So the most logical answer to all this ‘don’t go referring our peeps’ stuff is they are playing Trumble. The best way to get Trumble to do anything stupid is to tell him not to do it.


    Poor Turnbull is being played; the poor guy is out of depth. When Turnbull went on about the contents of Shortens letter my thought was “Come in spinner”.

  2. I’ve just had a read of Richo’s view of just how appalling Brian Trumble’s judgement is:
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull sinking with no lifeline in sight (use the incognito Google method)
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-sinking-with-no-lifeline-in-sight/news-story/45d28436647d58309a8be709a6c572ed

    Over the last few weeks I’ve been tempering my schadenfreude at the L/NP’s position with the thought that the situation had hit rock bottom, then been pleasantly surprised as the situation got even worse.

    Now I would have thought that having lost John Alexander and his majority in the HoR to s.44 would have encouraged Brian Trumble to keep a civil tongue in his head, however, Brian has managed to plumb new depths. Turns out that Brian called Rebekha Sharkie and urged her to refer herself to the High Court and then has decided it’s a good idea to threaten to unilaterally refer two to four (depending on the source) Labor members to the High Court under s.44.

    Neither move was at all bright. Sharkie may well be standing between Brian and a successful motion of no confidence in coming months, and notwithstanding that Labor has a very arguable position around “reasonable steps”, there are 8* L/NP HoR members that I know of where questions have been raised about their eligibility under s.44, plus David Gillespie is already before the High Court under a different subsection of s.44.

    L/NP HoR members with Questions to Answer (TM):
    – Josh Fridenberg
    – Alex Hawke
    – Julia Banks
    – Bert van Manen
    – Luke Hartsuyker
    – Jason Falinski
    – Ann Sudmalis
    – Tony Pasin

    The Labor dirt unit undoubtedly has more L/NP members that it has suspicions about, and Bill Shorten has been able to count on Trumble doing the stupidest thing possible in the circumstances. Brian’s judgement is truly appalling.

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