BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

As chaos mounts in Canberra, the situation on the polling front remains eerily quiet.

The recent action and excitement in federal politics continues to make no impression on the polls. This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack aggregate nudges very slightly to the Coalition on two-party preferred, but the vagaries of state breakdowns cause Labor to pick up two on the seat projection, with a gain apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. The only new addition this week is the regular Essential Research result, which provided no new data on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,510 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  3. Asha Leu @ #1450 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 8:17 pm

    As for Hawke, I’d argue he’s the more of an exception rather than a rule when it comes to last minute leadership changes. But, yes, replacing Shorten could work wonders for Labor, leading them to a historic landslide and decades in power. It could also be an unmitigated disaster, a classic example of defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. We won’t know until it happens. But right now, things seem to be working out pretty well for Labor, so why take the risk?

    It would be as dumb as the 2010 assassination of Rudd.

  4. Shorten gave an excellent account of himself at the TURC Royal Commission. Stoljar sounded like a fool and Heydon Dyson sounded ignorant.
    On the hustings Shorten displays a sense of humour

    I think Shorten suffers from a hostile press

  5. The MSM seem to regularly state that the LNP “warns” while Labor “threatens”. It’s much the same as when business “warns” of something while unions “threaten” something. Today’s example:

    The Federal Opposition says it is building a case against more Government MPs with citizenship doubts, and is threatening to “go nuclear”, as the war of words over the constitutional crisis intensifies.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is warning the Government will refer Labor MPs facing dual citizenship questions to the High Court, accusing the ALP of flouting the law.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-12/government-could-refer-labor-mps-to-high-court/9142306

  6. Shorten speaks plainly and clearly, contrasting very favourably with Turnbull’s big words and clever phrasing. I trust what Shorten says, and dislike and distrust what Turnbull says.

  7. Hawke was an exception. He had been a high profile, popular and well-respected public figure for at least a decade by the time he entered Parliament in 1980. He was charismatic but with a reputation as a fixer, a negotiator, someone who can solve intractable problems and get the job done. There is simply no one in Parliament or outside it now who is comparable in public profile to Hawke in 1983.

    Unless something goes seriously wrong with Shorten’s leadership, he’s the leader for the next election. He’s put in the hard yards, he’s brought Labor from miserable defeat in 2013 to a strong lead in 2017 after almost winning in 2016. He’s seen off one and maybe soon two ‘Liberal” PMs. He’s not the Messiah, but then, neither was John Howard.

  8. Shorten will never get any credit from the right wing press whatever the circumstances.They are still all in love with Turncoat and always will support him or any other Liberal leader whether in govt or opposition.Thats because newspapers are corporates that kiss the ass of Liberals day and night.They are their party. The journos have to dance to their bosses tune.This is the sad reality that Shorten and the Labor movement will always be up against.

  9. “The Federal Opposition says it is building a case against more Government MPs with citizenship doubts, and is threatening to “go nuclear”, as the war of words over the constitutional crisis intensifies.”

    If Malcolm carries out his threat to refer Labor MPs to the High Court, go for it!

  10. a r @ #1443 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 5:03 pm

    grimace @ #1437 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:56 pm

    You have clearly never heard Shorten speak in the flesh. He comes across several orders of magnitude better than he does on TV.

    Yes. I don’t think I’ve heard any major politicians speak in the flesh.

    The problem is my experience is probably not far off the norm for most people. Coming across well both on TV and in person is an important skill in politics.

    If you really want to see a shocker, get yourself to an event where Brian Trumble will be doing unscripted interactions with voters.

    One of Shortens’ big shortcomings is having a lecturn in front of him and using a teleprompter, it really detracts from his ability to express his personality on TV.

  13. For all youse Greens lovers.

    Jennifer Bechwati @jenbechwati
    Breaking: Greens leader Richard Di Natale confirms on Sky News they will support the government if it wants to refer Labor MPs. With Adam Bandt’s vote in the House the Govt will have the numbers. @SkyNewsAust
    4:21 PM – Nov 12, 2017 · Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

  14. poroti @ #1463 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:58 pm

    For all youse Greens lovers.

    Jennifer Bechwati @jenbechwati
    Breaking: Greens leader Richard Di Natale confirms on Sky News they will support the government if it wants to refer Labor MPs. With Adam Bandt’s vote in the House the Govt will have the numbers. @SkyNewsAust
    4:21 PM – Nov 12, 2017 · Canberra, Australian Capital Territory

    Well colour me surprised – the Greens supporting the LNP, oh wait…….

  16. Presumably, the G-Lib inspired ref to the HC will allege that the Labor MPs in question renounced their foreign citizenships as required by <i<Sykes.

    It’s possible the HC may not even hear such a reference.

    This also illustrates the risks involved in allowing the majority to attempt to use its numbers to unseat members of the minority – to use legalisms to overturn the results of elections.

    The Gs, as much as the LNP, obviously don’t mind scabbing on democracy if they can see a partisan advantage in it.

  24. If the LNP move to refer Labor members to the HC, couldn’t the ALP put up an amendment tacking on a long list of LNP members that have citizenship questions to answer.

  26. Interestingly this article in Fairfax has the same ‘warning’ and ‘threatening ‘ terms, with Labor warning and Turnbull ‘threatening ‘

    “And the opposition is warning of “nuclear” retaliation if the government does pursue its MPs, saying it will target the Coalition’s “foreign five”.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last week threatened to use the government’s slim majority in the lower house to refer as many as four Labor MPs – including Justine Keay and Susan Lamb – to the court because they were officially still dual citizens when they nominated as candidates.”

    Turnbull needs support to pursue Labor MPs
    The PM will need crossbench support to refer Labor MPs to the High Court.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-needs-crossbench-support-to-refer-labor-mps-to-the-high-court-over-citizenship-20171111-gzji3y.html?btis

  34. Me thinks Labor should turn this on it’s head and refer all suspects to the HC first – Turnbull has set the rules of engagement… time for Shorten to stop barking and bite. Libs will have nowhere to hide.

  39. The Rexs of this world ashen faced…

    Voters have cut Mr Turnbull’s standing as preferred prime minister in one of the biggest blows to his personal ratings since he took the job from Tony Abbott, scaling back his support on this measure from 41 to 36 per cent.

    Voters increased their support for Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister from 33 to 34 per cent, narrowing the gap between the two leaders to just two percentage points — the closest it has ever been between them.

  40. The latest Newspoll puts Labor in its strongest overall position since Mr Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as prime minister in September 2015, with the Labor primary vote rising from 37 to 38 per cent at the same time Mr Shorten gains ground on key leadership measures.

    This is the 23rd consecutive Newspoll where the Coalition has trailed Labor on the two-party vote, a tally that Mr Turnbull emphasised when he named the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for challenging Mr Abbott in September 2015.

    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation increased its primary vote from 9 to 10 per cent, its highest result since July.

    The Greens saw their primary vote slip from 10 to 9 per cent, a common shift and one that keeps the party within its usual range in core support.

    The combined impact of the changes in primary vote saw Labor gain ground in two-party terms, leading the Coalition by 55 to 45 per cent compared with a lead of 54 to 46 per cent two weeks ago.

  42. VP

    The senate would be in play for Lab + Green + others

    In the House the Greens could go one a piece. One Lib, one Lab, Sharkie, One Lib, One lab etc.

  44. Labor must surely know that any of their’s who didn’t get their confirmations back before the close of nominations will have to go to the HC. I simply don’t believe they could imagine otherwise.

    So the most logical answer to all this ‘don’t go referring our peeps’ stuff is they are playing Trumble. The best way to get Trumble to do anything stupid is to tell him not to do it. So it seems Labor is drawing Trumble into the folly of going Nuclear.

    Labor is ready to drop all of their documentation. They are itching for a fight on this issue. They just want Brian to make the first strike. You can bet that Labor has a looooooooong list of Coalition members they have done research on and as soon as Trumble pushes the button the response will be swift and devastating.

  47. steve davis @ #1458 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 8:41 pm

    Shorten will never get any credit from the right wing press whatever the circumstances.They are still all in love with Turncoat and always will support him or any other Liberal leader whether in govt or opposition.Thats because newspapers are corporates that kiss the ass of Liberals day and night.They are their party. The journos have to dance to their bosses tune.This is the sad reality that Shorten and the Labor movement will always be up against.

    This is undeniable truth.

    Well said!


  48. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 9:38 pm

    Is it still the preferred prime minister numbers that are the only ones that count?

    Rex will remove the ? mark for you.

  49. The Arsetralian is describing it as a “horror slump”. Not sure what’s horrific about it. I find it quite pleasant.

    Voters have swung further toward Labor while giving Bill Shorten a dramatic boost as preferred prime minister, with Labor widening its lead over the Coalition to 55 to 45 per cent in two-party terms.

    Bill Shorten now has a better net-sat rating than Brian Trumble. I’m sure Rex will be along shortly to tell us all that Shorten should be doing better than that.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-misery-for-malcolm-turnbull-in-horror-poll-slump/news-story/3abf4f7975381d5c9707ec23fc666e6c?nk=9d7ca533e500447083a29fefa7756151-1510482910 (Assume it’s behind the paywall).

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