A loose assortment of recent developments:
• The Courier-Mail reports One Nation is set to preference all sitting members second last, ahead of only the Greens. The report also says the LNP is now likely to direct preferences to Labor’s Jackie Trad ahead of Greens candidate Amy MacMahon in South Brisbane, despite earlier reports that a proposal to do the opposite had won wide support on the party’s state executive.
• Nominations closed on Tuesday, and the Poll Bludger’s election guide has now been brought up to date with full candidate lists in ballot paper order. A total of 453 candidates have nominated for the 93 seats – a record in absolute terms, although the 1998 election exceeded it for average number of candidates per seat. I count ten former LNP members defeated in 2015 who are seeking to make a comeback, including three running for One Nation and two as independents (One Nation’s count of former LNP members increases to four if Buderim MP Steve Dickson is included). Perhaps the most optimistic of the bunch is independent Redlands candidate Peter Dowling, whose career as the seat’s LNP member ended ignominiously in 2015 after a personal scandal and preselection defeat.
• The contest for the Rockhampton electorate has been shaken up by the entry of local mayor Margaret Strelow as an independent. Strelow ran for Labor preselection with the support of Annastacia Palaszczuk, but was rebuffed by the locally dominant Labor Unity/Old Guard faction in favour of Barry O’Rourke, regional director of the Department of Housing.
• The Courier-Mail reports a ReachTEL poll for the Stop Adani Alliance found 70% of respondents were opposed to taxpayers’ funds being loaned to the company. The poll was conducted from 1652 respondents ten days before Annastacia Palaszczuk announced she would veto any such loan.
• Betting markets continue to see nothing in it. Despite Labor’s shaky campaign, Ladbrokes has had Labor nudging to favouritism, paying $1.83 to the LNP’s $1.95, which reverses what was on offer at the start of the week. However, the movement merely brings it closer to Sportsbet’s $1.75 for Labor and $2 for the LNP, which has been unchanged over the past week.
Update: Galaxy electorate polls
The Courier-Mail has excitingly unrolled individual electorate poll results from Galaxy Research on an hourly basis:
• The surprise packet turns out to be southern metropolitan fringe seat of Logan, where One Nation candidate Scott Bannan is far outperforming his peers to record a slight primary vote deficit, of 35% to 33%, against Labor incumbent Linus Power. However, One Nation’s flow of respondent-allocated from the 20% LNP and 12% “others” voters is not enough to overturn the Labor lead, which finishes at 52-48.
• Aside from that, results for One Nation tend to be on the modest side. In the low-income retirement haven seat of Hervey Bay, which the party won in 1998, their candidate came in third with 25% of the vote, behind LNP incumbent Ted Sorensen on 38% and Labor on 31%. This converts into a 55-45 two-party lead for the LNP, compared with an existing post-redistribution margin of 6.5%.
• The poll credits the LNP with a crucial gain in Mundingburra, with One Nation again needing to make the final preference cut. Labor incumbent Coralee O’Rourke and LNP challenger Matthew Derlagen are finally matched on primary votes of 29% and 30% respectively, with Derlagen emerging 52-48 ahead after preferences, including from One Nation on 20% and Katter’s Australian Party on 12%.
• The Rockhampton result suggests Margaret Strelow – mayor, Labor preselection aspirant and now independent candidate – is unlikely to trouble Labor, recording only 14% of the vote. This accounts for most but not all of a drop in the Labor primary vote, from 52.9% in 2015 to 33%. Labor still holds a 58-42 after preferences, but this amounts to a 6% swing to the LNP. Primary votes of 23% for the LNP (down from 30.3%) and 22% for One Nation raise the possibility that it may be the latter that makes the final count, but they would have a steep hill to climb on preferences.
• Another independent recording weak numbers is Rob Pyne, the Labor-turned-independent incumbent in Cairns, who scores only 11%. Labor leads the LNP on the primary vote 37% to 32% and finishes 54-46 ahead on preferences, amounting to a 3.5% swing to the LNP.
• The new Gold Coast seat of Bonney registers at 50-50 result, for a swing to Labor of 2.2%.
• The Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Glass House is also at 50-50, off a post-redistribution LNP margin of 0.9%.