BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

As chaos mounts in Canberra, the situation on the polling front remains eerily quiet.

The recent action and excitement in federal politics continues to make no impression on the polls. This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack aggregate nudges very slightly to the Coalition on two-party preferred, but the vagaries of state breakdowns cause Labor to pick up two on the seat projection, with a gain apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. The only new addition this week is the regular Essential Research result, which provided no new data on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,510 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 27 of 31
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  2. briefly

    The words after the 1:33 pm below don’t include any actual words from me.

    CTar1 says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    The point is that renunciation does not depend on receiving acknowledgement from a counter-party.

    Providing it’s carried out in a relevant form, an act of renunciation is sufficient to free a dual citizen from the impairment imposed by 44(i).

  3. I understand that the Dutch Government is going to declare all Australians with at least one vowel or at least one consonant in their first names to be Australo-Dutch Citizens.

    Those wishing to foreswear Dutch citizenship may do so for a down payment of $10,000 and an ongoing honorarium of $1000 per birthday.

  5. Fake news?

    History Lovers Club‏ @historylvrsclub Nov 10
    This is а genuine conversation between Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.

    :large


  6. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 2:02 pm

    I understand that the Dutch Government is going to declare all Australians with at least one vowel or at least one consonant in their first names to be Australo-Dutch Citizens.

    Those wishing to foreswear Dutch citizenship may do so for a down payment of $10,000 and an ongoing honorarium of $1000 per birthday.

    Could you please let me know the address where I register for the dutch pension.

  11. The government now has 73 of the 148 occupied seats – not including Speaker Tony Smith – in the House of Representatives, which resumes on November 27. Labor holds 69 seats and the crossbench has five.

    That means the Coalition is now facing the prospect of defeats on the floor of Parliament and could struggle to turn the citizenship tables on Labor as it had intended.

    By submitting your email you are agreeing to Fairfax Media’s terms and conditions and privacy policy.
    While two crossbenchers – Cathy McGown and Rebekha Sharkie – have guaranteed support for the government on confidence and supply they have not ruled out siding with Labor on other votes. However Ms Sharkie is also under a citizenship cloud under similar circumstances to the Labor MPs.

    …The Bennelong byelection is expected to be held on December 16. Mr Alexander is renouncing his British citizenship with the intention of standing again.

    Bennelong sits on a margin of almost 10 per cent, which is normally considered safe. Liberal Party figures are confident the seat can be retained through Mr Alexander’s strong personal support, although any swing against him will reflect poorly on Mr Turnbull and his government.

    ABC election analyst Antony Green believes the previous record for number of candidates in a single election – 22 – will be “blown out of the water” in the byelection.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-needs-crossbench-support-to-refer-labor-mps-to-the-high-court-over-citizenship-20171111-gzji3y.html

  13. Just read Peter Martins piece on how high prices are just a figment of our imagination. He claims using baked beans that they’ve only increased in price by a small amount. What I didn’t see him address unless I missed something is that the can of baked beans is probably significantly smaller than when they did the price check previously. Maybe they account for it with unit pricing but I didn’t get that impression from the article.

  14. Peter Martin is the expert on cherry picking statistics to create a headline, but he doesn’t address the fundamental issue of relative wealth.

  16. Dan Gulberry says:

    Is everyone out on strike?</blockquote.
    With the removal of Sunday penalty rates the Worshipful Order of Keyboard Warriors have initiated a go slow in protest. Up the Workers !

  19. I believe that the news from Rebel Wilson where she say one of the Hollywood Pigs wanted a finger up his ass – has finally brought realization to the Australian people thats kind of the reverse of what our Governement has in store for us.

    Bend over boys and girls. Maybe it’s only the children in the gun sights.

    Don’t be more of a fool than usual KayJay, this lot (LNP and associated con people and spivs) are an even handed lot and nobody will feel safe.

    Just as well then that the likes of Mr. Hastic, Erica and their confreres are there (somewhere ♪♫over the rainbow ♪♫ ) to protect our tender bottoms.

    R & R from horrible migraine going well. Pain free.
    Hip:!: Hip ❗
    Hoorah ❗

  22. Boochani said only a few people had volunteered to leave since Friday when Papua New Guinean immigration officials and police pulled down shelters in the Oscar camp and Delta compound being used as respite from the sun, and removed rubbish bins that were used to store water.

    But he said those who had agreed to relocate to the East Lorengau Refugee Transit Centre and West Lorengau Haus in recent days were struggling, and had reported that the conditions were worse than in the detention centre.

    Boochani said the refugees who had relocated to the Hillside centre had been “imprisoned and can not leave”.

    “Some security officers are in front of the gate and don’t allow them to come out,” he said. “In West Longerau the condition is worse because the prison camp is not ready and still the workers are working there.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/11/400-manus-detainees-told-they-will-be-moved-in-days-journalist-claims?CMP=share_btn_tw

  23. I hope Trumble didn’t deliver the news in person to Nolan from the Harbourside Mansion, or she is probably heading down New South Head road to Watson’s Bay at this moment.

  24. Mr Turnbull will need to explain a little more to me how the Marino situation is the same as the Canavan one. Although it’s possible he has and the media is doing it’s usual job of misreporting.

  25. What I didn’t see him address unless I missed something is that the can of baked beans is probably significantly smaller than when they did the price check previously.

    Heinz are now in my seriously-pissed-off books over this.

    Having just decided to diddle with all their can sizes to ‘right size’ them (or some bullshit like that), the upshot being that what used to be 420g cans on Woolies’ shelves are now 300g cans, which just screws with any sense of how far a can will go, so not only is the unit pricing out of whack (shrinkflation seriously pisses me off at the best of times), but the utility of the can has substantially changed.

    And to add insult to injury they created one of the most irritating TV ad campaigns I’ve ever seen to try to put a family friendly gloss on their consumer-hostile shenanigans.

    Thankfully SPC cans remain the same (for now…)

  26. ratsak says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 3:57 pm
    I hope Trumble didn’t deliver the news in person to Nolan from the Harbourside Mansion, or she is probably heading down New South Head road to Watson’s Bay at this moment.

    I’d recommend the 324 over the 325. Quicker

    😈

  29. briefly @ #1267 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    poroti says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 12:02 pm
    briefly

    Everyone having the same number of citizenship rights sounds pretty equal.

    The Soviet solution to the question of nationality. Will you also sentence the dual citizen to internal exile? Or force their rendition to another jurisdiction? In the USSR, passports would show whether a person was a “Russian” (that is, a native Russian); a citizen of Russia (a non-native); or a Jew.

    The desire to slice and dice the community by reference to citizenship is inherently xenophobic.

    Our passports show exactly the same except for any mention of religion.

    Any citizenship would be xenophobic if you excluded certain groups from the ability to gain citizenship.

  30. From the Age article

    The Bennelong byelection is expected to be held on December 16. Mr Alexander is renouncing his British citizenship with the intention of standing again.

    Presumably Alexander will lodge his renunciation on Monday, he and the Liberal party will be relying on an extremely fast process.
    What will they do it at the time of nomination he hasn’t got a signed and sealed reply ? Should he still nominate assuming it will be all processed by the election, even is this wouldn’t pass a “literal test” ?

  36. The trick to stopping the page of dots and lines is to stop the page loading before that happens, or at least it is in my case.

  37. William, your excused.

    The new site handled well allowing me to read posts via the dashboard, even though you were in “oh no” mode. It is really a good move in going to this new site

  41. I have managed to get onto site with comments on it not lines, by coming in through William’s twitter account. Hope will continue to have comment. Especially if Newspoll tonight!

  42. William Bowe says: Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 4:53 pm

    Please excuse my “what does this button do” moment.

    *******************************************

    Hi William – not sure if you saw a few messages from a number of posters yesterday on the subject – but any chance you can restore the EDIT function that was operating so well ( you did mention extending its time to 10 minutes prior to it disappearing altogether ) ????? …… otherwise the new site is just great !!!

  43. If JA can, like Nash, get a quick turnaround from the mother country, it really will make the idea that Keay et al should be tossed clearly unjust. A system that allows those close to the executive to get a clear advantage over everyone else is a system the HC will have to seriously assess.

    Unlike my learned friend Windhover I don’t see Labor struggling to find a very highly regarded advocate to run that argument and I don’t think anyone will be laughing at them when they do.

  44. Well that explains the dots and lines.

    Just watching 10 news and feel like throwing a brick through the screen. Apparently Labor are the ones with questions to answer re citizenship. Fair dinkum if msm so called Journos are paid more than street sweepers then they are grossly overpaid.

  46. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 4:24 pm
    briefly @ #1267 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    poroti says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 12:02 pm
    briefly

    Everyone having the same number of citizenship rights sounds pretty equal.

    The Soviet solution to the question of nationality. Will you also sentence the dual citizen to internal exile? Or force their rendition to another jurisdiction? In the USSR, passports would show whether a person was a “Russian” (that is, a native Russian); a citizen of Russia (a non-native); or a Jew.

    The desire to slice and dice the community by reference to citizenship is inherently xenophobic.
    Our passports show exactly the same except for any mention of religion.

    Not really.

    You could be a “Russian”…as in a native-speaker, from the territory we would now recognise as the Russian Republic; or you could be a Citizen of Russia, as in a speaker of another tongue, from one the territories we’d recognise as Central Asia or one of the non-Russian-speaking members of the Russian Federation today; or you could be none of these things and just be a Jew, which is barely a citizen at all.

    44(i) gives legal expression to a 19th century system of national ordering. It sucks.

  47. Aqualung @ #1313 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 2:46 pm

    Just read Peter Martins piece on how high prices are just a figment of our imagination. He claims using baked beans that they’ve only increased in price by a small amount. What I didn’t see him address unless I missed something is that the can of baked beans is probably significantly smaller than when they did the price check previously. Maybe they account for it with unit pricing but I didn’t get that impression from the article.

    Just as an aside, anyone who smokes or gambles or any other stupid thing re their money has no place complaining about rising cost of living.

  48. Dean Smith‏Verified account@DeanSmithWA
    2h2 hours ago
    If the result of the postal survey is a ‘Yes’ on November 15, parliamentarians must hold up their end of the bargain with the Australian people and legislate #marriageequality by the end of the year.

    It would at least represent something significant that this parliament has achieved this year.

  49. Is it possible that the change to the edit parameters has somehow caused the edit function to be disabled?
    Or were you playing around with some other options to see what happened William?
    😉

  50. Aqualung

    Reporter/Journalists are employees. They do what the owner of the business wants. Take the recent release of the ‘paradise papers’ there should be global outrage in the meeja but there isn’t. Why ? Could it be because the owners of the Meeja are front and centre in that little tax avoidance lurk .

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