BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

As chaos mounts in Canberra, the situation on the polling front remains eerily quiet.

The recent action and excitement in federal politics continues to make no impression on the polls. This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack aggregate nudges very slightly to the Coalition on two-party preferred, but the vagaries of state breakdowns cause Labor to pick up two on the seat projection, with a gain apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. The only new addition this week is the regular Essential Research result, which provided no new data on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,510 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 31
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  1. Section 2 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Bruce Guthrie writes abut the gun culture in the US.

    Michael West unloads on the privatisation gravy train for consultants and accountants.

    The NSW Coroner’s Office is clogged with deaths from natural causes that may have been unnecessarily reported, causing undue distress to grieving families, delaying funerals and diverting resources from genuinely perplexing cases.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-coroners-office-clogged-up-with-deaths-from-natural-causes-20171110-gziwzn.html

    Matt Golding in Bennelong.

    More sport from Golding.

    And he goes outside the High Court.

    And yet more from Matt.



    Mark Knight with Kevin Spacey.

  2. Renowned filmmaker and naturalist Sir David Attenborough has backed the idea of a Great Forest National Park to ensure the continued existence of biodiversity, safeguard water supplies, provide spiritual nourishment for ourselves and future generations, and of course, to protect the state’s critically endangered faunal emblem, the Leadbeater’s Possum.

    Yet the state government seems to have fallen silent on the idea.

    As well as the need to protect the Yarra Ranges and Central Highlands and parts of East Gippsland to help ensure the survival of up to 75 forest-dependent species, there are ecologically significant tracts of public land in south western Victoria and central western Victoria that need to be preserved.

    After winning the November 2014 state election, Labor promised a collaborative approach to new parks, announcing a taskforce of representatives from environmental groups, forestry unions and the logging industry to work towards a consensus on the creation of a Great Forest National Park.

    Sadly, after two years of intensive meetings, the taskforce has been unable to move beyond a broad statement of intent which agreed on the need for the development of new parks and reserves. It has not met at all in 2017.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-is-daniel-andrews-trashing-labors-legacy-of-national-park-creation-20171109-gzi70j.html

  3. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 11h11 hours ago

    ABC plugs Turnbull’s Peruvian sugar trade deal – a laughable attempt to sweeten LNP appeal ahead of the QLD election when since 2010-11, half the state’s production is owned by Willmar, a huge Singaporean MNC. Revenue of $US 41 bn. Peruvian deal begins at $30K. Talk it up, ABC.

  4. Physicist Brian Cox has slammed former prime minister Tony Abbott for his views on climate change.

    The celebrity scientist, in Australia for a speaking tour, was responding to Mr Abbott’s comments last month that climate change is doing more good than harm.

    ‘Climate change itself is probably doing good, or at least more good than harm,’ the former prime minister told the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London.

    The celebrity scientist, in Australia for a speaking tour, was responding to Mr Abbott’s comments last month that climate change is doing more good than harm

    ‘It’s complete nonsense to say that,’ Cox told the The Daily Telegraph.

    ‘It is not only a legitimate question to ask but it is a necessary question to say, what will the climate be like in 10 years, 50 years, 100 years.

    ‘That is the question any responsible politician would ask because it is vitally important. It is very irresponsible for many reasons for a politician to say they don’t believe that climate change is harmful.’

    Cox went on to claim Mr Abbott’s comments suggest the former prime minister believes he is more knowledgeable on the topic than the world’s top scientists.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5037977/Brian-Cox-says-Tony-Abbott-climate-change-irresponsible.html#ixzz4y9iJuvbA
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  5. @LittleBertie01 · 12h12 hours ago

    Dutton and Abbott scream that Christine Forster getting jostled by protesters is a moral outrage, and yet they think leaving 606 men without food, water or medicine, in a hostile jungle, is perfectly acceptable.

  7. The reason for the removal from the blog of the ability to edit a post remains with William.

    In the meanwhile, on this very pleasant (Newcastle) day, those with AR’s C+ can, by using the quote function on their error ridden post, remedy the spelling, typos, punctuation, lunacy or other problems.

    I am not suggesting that some of the huge tracts be repeated for this purpose.

    Also Cynthia, most errors could be simple keyboard errrors which do not merit correction because we, the wonders of the universe, will instantly recognise what has happened and make allowances.

    😎 😌😇

  8. Insiders ABC‏Verified account @InsidersABC
    21m21 minutes ago
    Last minute technical checks underway. On today’s #Insiders we’ll be joined by @StevenCiobo and the panel @KarenMMiddleton, @farrm51 and @MStutch. Watch on @ABCTV and @abcnews. #auspol

  10. Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 37m37 minutes ago

    He could have checked when he nominated in 2010. Or in 2013. Or in 2016. He could have checked five months ago when the citizenship issue first erupted. Or when the High Court ruled last month. But it was the media that ultimately did his due diligence on his behalf.

    That’s the thing about tennis. You’re not faulted until the umpire calls ‘out’. Until then, you play on, smiling.

  12. Good Morning

    How is Insiders going to view the chaos and dysfunction of the minority government today? Are they going to say the LNP are more secure in their minority government than Labor despite the fact Gillard negotiated formally in both houses her confidence and supply.

    Or are they going to tell the truth and say the government is hanging by a thread while it waits to see if another LNP member falls. They still have the government whip to worry about as reported by Adam Gartrell

    So its an interesting test yet again for Insiders.

  14. I am in the throes of recovering from a severe headache (migraine variety).

    Imagine, if you will, the relief and joy to be almost back to what I call normal.

    I note that references have been made today to Professor Brian Cox and Mr Abbott.

    I think I see wherein lies the problem.

    Brian Cox is an educated man (is able to observe, formulate, understand complex ideas) while Mr Abbott is, well Mr Abbott is Mr Abbott.

    Brian Cox speaks of verifiable ideas and observations while Mr Abbott speaks to fellow (room for adjectives and extra paper available from the room monitor)’s who are devoted to whatever it is they are devoted to. In this country that would be Ms. Pauline’s followers, many of whom are ill educated and unable to understand complex thoughts and ideas, but nevertheless are convinced they alone possess true understanding and don’t need not nuffink from that there lot and we don’t want no sex education about masturbaton and that.

    So – Science – that’s for the egg heads.

    Mr Abbott – ……………………….for dick heads :!:.

    Unfortunately the people who will listen to Mr. Abbott and take head comprise many of the voters who decide the outcome of voting in many electorates.

    ☮ ✌ ☕

  15. Celebrity scientist Brian Cox slams Tony Abbott for his ‘irresponsible’ views on climate change after the former PM said global warming did ‘more good than harm’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5037977/Brian-Cox-says-Tony-Abbott-climate-change-irresponsible.html#ixzz4yA51NzRw
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5037977/Brian-Cox-says-Tony-Abbott-climate-change-irresponsible.html

  16. BevanShields: Christopher Pyne confirms the government will break with longstanding tradition and use its numbers to refer Labor MPs with citizenship questions to the High Court #auspol

  17. KayJay

    Having been a migraine sufferer in the past, I know the feeling of relief when it’s over.

    Have you seen Pauline getting all hot and bothered about the porn she sees late at night on SBS?

  18. Christopher Pyne confirms the government will break with longstanding tradition

    That gives Labor the green light to do the same. Or do they stay pure??

  19. barriecassidy: JA hasn’t yet renounced. He can’t stand again until he does. And that might take time. Pre Xmas by election could be tight timetable.

  21. Anton,

    S.44 works like this:

    1. If you are a dual citizen you are disqualified.
    2. There is one exception to the above – where the laws of the foreign country prevent the candidate from effectively renouncing.
    3. Those for whom the exception applies must meet a pre-condition, namely that they take reasonable steps to evidence their intention to end their dual citizenship.

    Reasonable steps is not an exception. It is a precondition to the only exception. What amounts to reasonable steps will depend on the individual circumstances. It is plausible in some circumstances doing nothing might be a reasonable step.

    Briefly, your effort to rely on acts of renunciation is gallant but insufficient. Where the laws of a foreign country enable effective renunciation (a question of fact based on expert evidence as to those laws) the renouncer must comply with the procedural requirements of that country and that country will determine when renunciation in fact has occurred.

  22. “Celebrity scientist Brian Cox slams Tony Abbott”
    Cox would have more credibility if he focused on the Turnbull government. Abbott is a very soft and irrelevant target.

  26. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    There is absolutely NO point in listening to Steve Ciobo at all. Since his first day in parliament as an MP he has been a Liberal automaton for the cause of Business. He has no heart and no soul. I guess the Mitt Romney maxim, ‘Corporations are people too, you know’, is embodied in the human form of Steve Ciobo.

    I can’t wait for Neoliberalism to die. Maybe then he may dry up and blow away too.

  27. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 8:47 am
    guytaur @ #1116 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 4:40 am

    BevanShields: Christopher Pyne confirms the government will break with longstanding tradition and use its numbers to refer Labor MPs with citizenship questions to the High Court #auspol
    Haven’t they just lost their numbers and would need to rely on a cross bencher to pass anything?

    One of whom is Rebecca Sharkie.

    Maybe Pyne is counting on Sharkie behaving like the good little SA Liberal she used to be.

  28. What Labor should do is move an amendment and change refer all ALP members to all HOR members to the High Court.

    That would get crossbench support. Another own goal for the LNP

  29. Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 10m10 minutes ago

    Pyne also says says Barnaby “did the right thing” and resigned. In fact, he continued to sit in cabinet for two months while obviously disqualified and then was booted by the High Court #auspol

    Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 12m12 minutes ago

    The government is dealing with the dual citizenship issues “the High Court has created”, says @cpyne. The court is enforcing the constitution your MPs ignored, Christopher.

  30. ATM – Turnbull is technically more secure than that Gillard (73/148 vs 74/150)

    However Gillard proved she could negotiate and didnt lose a parliamentary vote (House only). Turnbull hasnt yet proven negotiation skills and has lost votes in the house with a majority

  31. lizzie @ #1117 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 8:41 am

    KayJay

    Having been a migraine sufferer in the past, I know the feeling of relief when it’s over.

    Have you seen Pauline getting all hot and bothered about the porn she sees late at night on SBS?

    Yes, I read somewhere about her views (my typo from masturbation to masturbaton sound about right just now).

    I must know about the porn on late night SBS. Why have I not been kept up to date ❓ I have just checked tonight late night Pauline fare (Sex Diaries).
    Damn preverts (I’ve always wanted to write that) gunna destroy the moral values of the non masturbating communities of rural Queensland and how much are they paid for this lot I ask you ❓

    I think I need fresh coffee and toast with vegemite to restore me to semi alert functioning.

    I look forward to today’s fare.

    A very big thank you to BK for his dawn patrol. Kevin Spacey got a good doing over.

    I have never watched “House of Cards”. One of my few rules for entertainment is that if a book, TV show movie has, as a locus, the POTUS, then the whole thing must be unendurable BS and not for KJ.

    Over and out. Au revoir, adieu ….♫♪♫♫♪♪

    E&OE

  32. Well thank you Fairfax media for actually pulling their figure out and nailing Pyne for his crap rather than their usual bs.

    + However if the Govt refers Lab MPs, I expect the crossbench will also want to vote Lib MPs. The crossbench has struck me as being even keel on these matters. (Barring Katter)

  33. C@

    One of whom is Rebecca Sharkie.

    Turnbull really does think he’s smarter than everyone else.

    He claims that he was phoning Sharkie about a whole lot of things that the ‘government’ wants to do in the HoR when it resumes and at the end of a {inferred} long conversation he just happens to mention to her that she ‘should refer herself to the High Court’.

    Yeah, Riiiggght …

  34. CycloneCharlie8: Hey @barriecassidy, today’s top question for #Insiders:
    When will you, @TurnbullMalcolm be resigning and calling the election that we, the Australian people, want?
    #auspol

  38. pollwatcher9: Will #insiders mention Marino #citizenship question? Don’t worry rhetorical I know they won’t but will focus on ALP @InsidersABC #auspol

  40. lizzie @ #1129 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 4:58 am

    Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 10m10 minutes ago

    Pyne also says says Barnaby “did the right thing” and resigned. In fact, he continued to sit in cabinet for two months while obviously disqualified and then was booted by the High Court #auspol

    Adam Gartrell‏Verified account @adamgartrell · 12m12 minutes ago

    The government is dealing with the dual citizenship issues “the High Court has created”, says @cpyne. The court is enforcing the constitution your MPs ignored, Christopher.

    Normally their lies are veiled a bit better than this.

    Basically Pyne is having a big dummy spit and is saying;

    The HC was wrong! We told them the way it is and they didn’t fall into line.

    🙂

  46. Labor have got to start saying,
    ‘It’s not about job growth it’s about the wages and conditions of the Workers who have the jobs!’.

    What is the damn point of having a job if you are working as a serf!?!

  47. Stutchberry says if the govt can get the latest version of the TPP up it will be “seen as a good thing”.

    Not quite the same as saying it “would a good thing”.

  50. CTar:

    I thought he was a bit patronising towards Trudeau, suggesting that he doesn’t understand trade terms. Hilarious considering that comment came in reference to the NAFTA and Trump!

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