Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition retains its relatively encouraging voting intention result from Essential Research, as mixed signals emerged about its new energy policy.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has retained its two-point gain from last week on the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48 – primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also records 75% of respondents having voted in the same-sex marriage survey, with 60% having voted yes (down four from three weeks ago) and 34% no (up four).

Other questions related to energy policy, with 35% expressing approval for the government’s new national energy guarantee, 18% disapproval, and 47% unable to day. Only 16% thought it would reduce power prices, compared with 31% who said it would increase them, and 31% who felt it would make no difference. Thirty-two per cent expressed support for the end to renewable energy subsidies in 2020, with 41% opposed; 35% supported the replacement of the clean energy target with new reliability and emissions reductions obligations on retailers, with 32% opposed. Labor was “more trusted to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewables, stand up to the power companies and develop a modern power grid”, but there was little in it on “reducing power prices or ensuring a reliable power supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,288 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. The story is not the 4 Corners show itself last night but the Governments (and Morrow) efforts yesterday to be in the press all day leading up to it in an attempt to blunt critisism of their chosen methods of roll-out.

    I think we can rate Fifield and Morrow as a failure on doing that.

  2. lizzie

    No worries. I would have given some detail but I was concentrating too much on the feel of it this time. It just struck me that there is a change in feeling from non LNP politicians. Especially Labor ones.

    I have not seen Bowen do a presser like that since Labor was in government where he is correcting the narrative of the press gallery

  3. lizzie,

    The only tablets Turnbull has bought down from the mountain are mogadon and sadly the backbenchers behind him seem to have overdosed repeatedly !

    Cheers.

  4. Doyley:

    I agree with you that this issue is just going to keep simmering away in the background. And it’s kinda true what Fifield said. The more customers you have the more complaints you’ll get, if the product you are offering is shite.

  5. Confessions @ #103 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 9:50 am

    Doyley:

    I agree with you that this issue is just going to keep simmering away in the background. And it’s kinda true what Fifield said. The more customers you have the more complaints you’ll get, if the product you are offering is shite.

    Wats-is-name on Insiders was funny spelling out what a stupid line it was for them to take: try it you’ll hate it.

  6. ABC’s attempts at “fair and balanced” are getting ridiculous.

    Interstate, Hobart City Council last night voted to formally join a national campaign to change to the date, which is considered provocative by many in the Indigenous community because it marks the arrival of the First Fleet and beginning of Australia’s “invasion”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-24/sa-liberals-announce-australia-day-lock-in/9079012

    You don’t need to put invasion in speech marks. It’s not an alleged invasion. It’s well documented and objectively defined.

    The opposite of “Australia Day marks an invasion and we should not celebrate it” is “Australia Day marks an invasion, but we should celebrate anyway because …”

  7. guytaur @ #53 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 7:36 am

    venusboy1977: ‘Fighting inequality is much more important to me than fighting with former colleagues,’ says @SwannyQLD. #Auspol couriermail.com.au/news/queenslan…

    https://twitter.com/venusboy1977/status/922564892485337088

    Treacherous Rudd destroyed a very good ALP Govt whilst in parliament ..now the grub seeks to denigrate only the second Australian (ALP) treasurer to be declared the world’s best..

    Cowardly swine..

  8. Itza and booleanbach. Thanks, but I was just putting the blog up again after it was posted last night…because it deserved it. 🙂

  9. janeenorman: Is Senate Estimates really the place to be trawling over the details of a mentally ill man’s suicide? Surely that’s for the Coroner #auspol

  10. Fess

    It will be interesting if someone finds something concrete enough to take to ICAC. IF any untoward actions taken it will be another Obeid style corruption story.

  11. The same-sex marriage debate has intensified into a row over in-vitro fertilisation and sperm donors after a ‘No’ campaigner claimed parenting was not the same as birthing children. That Karina Okotel is a real bit of work.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/tv/2017/10/23/same-sex-marriage-postal-survey-ivf-qanda/

    I guess that’s why she has advanced so quickly up the greasy pole of Liberal Party politics to be national vice president. I think it also shows that, as a lawyer, she would make a hopeless politician because, by her reasoning, she has just given it in the neck to infertile couples, and Christian ones too, who adopt.

    That’s also probably why, as she seems to have come from an essentially Lefty background in the law, she opted for the Liberal Party. Like that other great failure she is emulating, Malcolm Turnbull.

  12. [guytaur
    janeenorman: Is Senate Estimates really the place to be trawling over the details of a mentally ill man’s suicide? Surely that’s for the Coroner #auspol
    ]

    No, but just look at the man asking the questions, enough said!!

  13. This fellow from the IPA was appointed Public Service Commissioner by Abbott and he has carried out his master’s wishes faithfully (just ask the public service union CPSU):

    The public service commissioner has defended his links to right-wing think tank the Institute of Public Affairs, rejecting suggestions he gave it special access and research.

    John Lloyd faced a barrage of questioning about his connection with the IPA on Monday from senators, who raised an email he had sent to a member of the group with an attachment showing generous provisions in public service enterprise agreements.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/apsc-boss-john-lloyd-defends-link-to-rightwing-think-tank-ipa-at-senate-20171023-gz69na.html

  14. Mike Carlton‏
    @MikeCarlton01

    Let us also not forget how that carpet-bagging turd Sol Trujillo and his amigos fucked over Telstra and our telecommunications. #4Corners

  15. JoshButler: Kevin Rudd doing the publicity rounds on TV and in the papers, Peter Garrett at the press club, 2007 never ended babey!!!

  16. Mark
    Try to be a bit reasonable.

    Swan came out and absolutely trashed Rudd. The thing that amazed me was that Rudd did not talk back immediately.

    Remember that those two had been good friends – godfathers to kids etc. Families meeting etc.

    Then when Rudd was removed it was known Swan (and the AWU) were big players. Naturally the bitterness would run very very deep. Indeed I think I have read somewhere that Rudd is particularly bitter towards Swan, probably because of their past friendship.

    Betrayal by friends and family is particularly hard to swallow – for anyone.

    Then Swan came out and trash talked Rudd. Any normal rational human would hate Swan with a passion for they way he spoke of Rudd and forgiveness would be impossible.

    It would have been particularly galling when Swan got the Trasurer’s rap since everybody knew that the whole GFC plan was Rudd and Ken Henry, with Swan tagging along.

    Once Rudd left Swan became an absolutely atrocious Treasurer – all the very stupidest neo liberal pap along with fanciful surplus projections. Much of the failure of the Gillard government can be attributed too Swan’s disappearing surplus. he looked like an idiot.

    People in the ALP should have been hoping for Rudd to get the UN position to keep him busy. Now with too much time on his hands his thoughts will turn to unpredictable directions. he will not disappear. Not his personality

  17. On 4 Corners, Morrow had the demeanour of a man being forced to eat a shit sandwich but finding it made almost palatable by the obscene amount of cash that he is being paid in order to eat that sandwich with a smile on his face.

  18. C@t,

    Just highlights how good Labor are at attracting quality, talented women into their ranks, leaving the offensive dregs for the Right. 🙂

  19. dtt

    ‘Swan came out and absolutely trashed Rudd. ‘

    Not until at least a year afterwards, when Rudd destabilised the government by mounting a leadership challenge when he had minimal support in caucus.

    ‘People in the ALP should have been hoping for Rudd to get the UN position to keep him busy. Now with too much time on his hands his thoughts will turn to unpredictable directions. he will not disappear. Not his personality’

    What a condemnation of the man. He lacks discipline and loyalty, apparently – you need to make sure he’s got lots of bright shiny things to distract him, otherwise he starts poking the other kids with scissors (your appraisal, dtt, not mine).

  20. At the height of ‘Conroyvia’ I had an opportunity to ask Conroy why Turnbull hated him so much – was it because he went to the wrong school, for example.

    Conroy said no, Turnbull knew he was wrong about the NBN, Turnbull can’t stand being wrong and has to try and destroy any reminder that he might be.

  21. [daretotread

    Then Swan came out and trash talked Rudd. Any normal rational human would hate Swan with a passion for they way he spoke of Rudd and forgiveness would be impossible.

    ]

    It amazes me that someone can use “rational” and “hate” in the same sentence and think it makes sense.

    There is nothing rational about hate, hate is the loss of rational thought and control, and if you allow it to impact on future decisions they will certainly not be rational.

  22. Confessions
    We’ve just had the NBN roll out here. I am not joining until I’m forced to.

    ————————————————————————————-

    Just got another letter from the NBN reminding me that I had till 9 Feb before they cutoff all the old services. Looks like I’m at the forced to stage.

  23. Turnbull knew he was wrong about the NBN,

    He’s been polishing his excuses now for years, and prefers to denigrate Labor rather than discuss any faults in NBN or himself (naturally).

  24. I have a bad feeling regarding NBN skipping me as being a “too difficult to connect” premise. NBN is supposed to start rolling out early next year but previously we were told that we were not available for the early trials because we were difficult to connect.

  25. zoomster – Turnbull’s main tactic when he is wrong or threatened is to scream at people or bully them until they go away. You can even see that during TV interviews. However, it won’t work this time. Some of Turnbull’s attacks on Conroy in Parliament were just sickening rubbish from a sick man.

  26. [lizzie
    Turnbull knew he was wrong about the NBN,

    He’s been polishing his excuses now for years, and prefers to denigrate Labor rather than discuss any faults in NBN or himself (naturally).

    ]

    It’s like the ME debate, the “NO” arguments were the baseless in the beginning and time has not wearied them.

  27. Paul Bongiorno‏Verified account @PaulBongiorno · 13h13 hours ago

    It is clear Tony Jones is scared shitless of the government’s anti ABC BIAS

  28. Here’s more on the tweet guytaur posted about Senate Estimates questioning. I think the names of the two questioners says everything you need to know, Eric Abetz and Ian Macdonald.

    [*This post deals with issues relating to mental health and suicide*

    Some deeply uncomfortable scenes in the Legal and Constitutional Affairs estimates hearing. Eric Abetz and Ian Macdonald made a point of questioning the Australian Federal Police over their arson investigation involving a mentally ill man who attempted suicide by driving into the Australian Christian Lobby office late last year.

    Jaden Duong, 36, who struggled with mental illness for much of his life, died by suicide in September. He was awaiting trial on arson charges for the December incident.

    Head of the ACL, Lyle Shelton, has refused to concede the incident was not politically motivated, despite the AFP repeatedly stating Duong was motivated by a desire to end his own life.

    On Tuesday morning, Macdonald and Abetz took up the ACL’s case during estimates with the AFP’s Andrew Colvin and the ACT Police’s Justine Saunders.

    Saunders said Duong looked at other locations, but decided against them because were too crowded. He decided on the ACL carpark, she said, because it was empty.

    Macdonald and Abetz do not look convinced and Penny Wong and Louise Pratt attempted to stop some of the questioning, which went into methodology on the grounds it was damaging and breached guidelines on how to talk about suicide. It’s for those reasons we won’t go into the transcript here. Colvin eventually puts a stop to it when he says he is uncomfortable discussing something which is before the coroner.

    In Australia, the crisis support service Lifeline is on 13 11 14. In the US, the National Suicide Prevention Hotline is 1-800-273-8255. In the UK, the Samaritans can be contacted on 116 123. Hotlines in other countries can be found here]

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/oct/24/nbn-estimates-broadband-energy-turnbull-shorten-rudd-politics-live

  29. NBN is simply a more obvious symptom of the malaise at the very heart of our politics. That being that the Coalition has decided that reality is simply not a constraint on what they can get away with and our utterly useless excuse for a media is systematically programmed to disseminate and launder their bullshit.

    It’s not and never was Abbott and any attempts to lump it all on his head are just a deflection. The entire right has learnt that a media that has given up even the pretence of sorting fact from fiction (if such a thing ever existed) means they can profit from utter irresponsibility because it takes a while for reality to blow up bullshit and the media will assist them to spread doubt and blame.

    It’s a systemic advantage bullshitters have over those constrained by a desire to at least try to be realistic.

    All the utter fails are and have been easily foreseen. But our social conversation has been poisoned to the point that expertise and honesty are actively looked down on and the bullshit of frauds is offered as equivalent to the considered work of the best and brightest.

    In this if anything Trumble is even a lower slime than Abbott. He’s no more likely to align his policies to reality but his smearing and sneering condescension of anyone with the expertise and honesty to point out his bullshit exceeds Abbott’s by several factors of 10.

    He and the entire right have bet that they can outrun reality and hope that enough doubt can be created to at least share the blame if not lump it entirely on Labor. You’d like to think it’s a fool’s bet and that one day soon the entire consequences of their vandalism will be sheeted home to them. But it probably won’t.

    Labor will have to contend with the problems this pack of arseholes have created and in those difficulties will be the seeds of their next campaign which the media will once again assist.

  30. Ratsak – Totally agree. And part of the problem is that most of the middle-aged and above in our society have had it incredibly good for decades. Complacency is rotting away our politics. But the bill will arrived fairly soon.

  31. Trump finally wrote that $25K check to a slain soldier’s family — the day he was exposed in the media

    President Donald Trump has finally sent the family of Dillon Baldridge, an Army corporal who died in Afghanistan over the summer, the personal check for $25,000 he promised them in June.

    As Charleston Post-Courier editor Jason Emory Parker noticed, however, the check was dated the exact same day the story about Trump not following through on his promise was published in the Washington Post.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/trump-finally-wrote-that-25k-check-to-a-slain-soldiers-family-the-day-he-was-exposed-in-the-media/

  32. Zoomster’s anecdote from Conroy is exactly right and has been a defining characteristic of the third Trumble since forever.

    Want to get smeared by a master? Know what you’re talking about and use that knowledge to demonstrate how and why Brian is wrong about something. The reaction time is measured in microseconds and the reaction will be ridiculously over the top.

  33. Rep. Cummings calls on Kelly to apologize to Wilson: ‘It doesn’t take a rocket scientist’ to know he’s wrong

    Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD) on Monday agreed with the women of the Congressional Black Caucus, arguing Donald Trump’s chief of staff John Kelly should apologize to Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL) after he mischaracterized a 2015 speech she gave during an FBI dedication ceremony.

    “I think it’s only appropriate,” Cummings told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. “I mean, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist. All you have to do is look at the film of when she made the statement with regard to the federal building there in Florida and listen to that speech very carefully. It’s one of her best speeches I’ve heard, to be frank with you, of something of that nature. And she gave credit where credit was due to the Republicans and the Democrats.”

    “I think he needs to show an example for all, that is to say, ‘You know what, after I went back and looked at the film, I was wrong and I’m sorry.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/rep-cummings-calls-on-kelly-to-apologize-to-wilson-it-doesnt-take-a-rocket-scientist-to-know-hes-wrong/

  34. Tony Smith pretends he’s ‘fair and balanced’, but he frequently stretches the concept of answering the question so broadly that Truffles and others can get away with endless b.s. I suspect he uses some of the previous speaker’s poor judgement as reliable precedents.

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