Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition retains its relatively encouraging voting intention result from Essential Research, as mixed signals emerged about its new energy policy.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has retained its two-point gain from last week on the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48 – primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also records 75% of respondents having voted in the same-sex marriage survey, with 60% having voted yes (down four from three weeks ago) and 34% no (up four).

Other questions related to energy policy, with 35% expressing approval for the government’s new national energy guarantee, 18% disapproval, and 47% unable to day. Only 16% thought it would reduce power prices, compared with 31% who said it would increase them, and 31% who felt it would make no difference. Thirty-two per cent expressed support for the end to renewable energy subsidies in 2020, with 41% opposed; 35% supported the replacement of the clean energy target with new reliability and emissions reductions obligations on retailers, with 32% opposed. Labor was “more trusted to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewables, stand up to the power companies and develop a modern power grid”, but there was little in it on “reducing power prices or ensuring a reliable power supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,288 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Lizzie

    Yes I though 4 Corners was pretty lame.

    The only thing that potentially could cause panic (legal people please comment) if the fact that people have been paying for download speeds that the company could not possibly deliver. This would seem a breach of consumer law and class action perhaps.

    The rest was pretty bland.

  4. In Traralgon, a local woman explains the promises made to the community when Victoria’s electricity system was privatised. Her husband and hundreds of others were encouraged to take the redundancy package with the promise they’d be hired back as contractors. It never happened and an entire generation never got jobs again.

    This woman isn’t the only person starting to question the legitimacy of privatisation. For a generation, it has been one of the defining ideas of the Australian economy. Governments of both sides have shown an almost unquestioning commitment to its value as a policy tool. But now proponents are suggesting a need to rethink its role.
    …
    The main reason for the change is that voters are looking at economic issues, including privatisation, through a different lens and politicians are starting to take notice. For 30 years, the debate around privatisation has essentially taken place among the elites. The public was rarely asked about the merits of privatising any specific sector. The elite debate was couched in terms completely alien to ordinary citizens. Arguments made to the public were based on “cost-benefit analyses”, “efficiency dividends” and “fiscal responsibility”. They sounded credible and impressive, and for several decades, they provided the political cover to pursue privatisation at will.

    Yet over time, the reality didn’t match the promise. Despite the impressive sounding phrases, people’s experience of public services and assets didn’t get better after privatisation. It got worse. It took some time for this to become clear because, very simply, no one asked. Governments outsourced their decision-making capacity, shedding experienced public servants and buying advice from accounting and consulting firms whose businesses benefited from continuing privatisation. Productivity Commission inquiries came and went, consulting with peak bodies, citing academics, and promoting further privatisations, but rarely asking communities what they thought.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/23/privatisation-has-failed-we-need-a-moratorium-on-all-new-proposals?CMP=share_btn_tw

  6. Thanks BK. I think Morrison is correct to say there is some urgency over corporate tax cuts. He may not be in office much longer to deliver them. How can he expect a corporate sinecure post-politics if he fails?

  8. Privatisation has for the most part yielded job losses, poorer service and higher prices, with decisions regarding nation-critical infrastructure being left to private rent-seekers who fiercely defend their turf and their profits. Meanwhile, the proceeds of privatisation have long since been pissed up against the wall on corporate tax cuts and election sweetners for long-forgotten campaigns.

    Nothing that remains in public ownership should be privatised ever.

  11. When discussing corporate tax cuts we should be citing the effective tax rate not the headline one, as corporates rarely pay tax at the full rate – and some pay none at all.
    E.g. in the US the corporate tax rate is something like 30% but with an effective rate of more like 12%.

  12. Ha, NBN seems to be the story of the day but completely ignored by ABC radio news and AM.

    Usually they are so good at self-promotion.

    Must have been a particularly bad day for the government as they ignore politics totally.

  14. “NBN seems to be the story of the day but completely ignored by ABC radio news and AM”
    And Katharine Murphy at the Guardian has ignored it – except to repeat Malcolm’s “it’s Labor’s fault”.

  15. “That doesn’t explain the “fixed-line connection that is a competitor to the NBN network”.”

    e.g. Optus HFC, iiNet’s VDSL2 network (formerly TransACT), TPG’s FTTB – and any other non-ADSL connection that NBN didn’t buy and rebrand.

    It could be argued that ADSL becomes a “competitor” as soon as NBN is available in an area; slugging customers an extra $7.10/month might “encourage” more early adoption of NBN (and probably more complaints.)

  18. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for today’s reading and viewing. As per usual the cartoonists are ahead of the commentariat curve when it comes to the NBN. Of course the coalition spent years promising an NBN that would be cheaper, faster, better than what was originally intended, and have ended up on delivering something much, much worse than what was originally intended! The press gallery will get there eventually. Maybe.

  19. NSW Liberals sold coal fired power station for $1m in 2015, now worth $730m. Something is very suss:

    It might rank as the deal of the century — but an appalling result for New South Wales taxpayers.

    In November 2015, the NSW Government offloaded Vales Point Power Station — an old, polluting coal-fired plant on the shores of Lake Macquarie — for $1 million.

    Suburban homes sell for more.

    A former energy industry bureaucrat and a coal baron bought Vales Point at the fire sale price through their company, Sunset Power International.

    Last week, as politicians loudly debated the latest energy plan to come out of Canberra, Sunset Power quietly released its latest financial reports — revaluing the Vales Point Power Plant at a cool $730 million.

    The shareholders, who lent Sunset Power the money to buy the old power plant, trousered nearly $40 million through a share buy-back by the now cashed-up company.

    Nice work if you can get it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-24/coal-power-station-sold-for-peanuts-becomes-730-million-asset/9077582

  22. cirizen:

    That is appalling. And the Liberals have the nerve to declare they are the better economic managers! They are economic vandals.

  24. We watched the 4 corners on the NBN with interest last night. We are in a pocket of town that should have gone live in Nov 2016, then Dec then Jan 2017. We have never been provisioned for service. I have complained to the TIO (useless) and our local Federal MP.
    Latest is that they may be back around May 2018 – just before the 18 months transition period ends.
    If they try to cut us off at the 18month mark I will scream loud and long about it to anyone concerned. In the pocket affected are homes, businesses, a kindergarten, a doctor’s surgery and the fire station if the pocket extends as I think it does.
    I thought the 4 corners was quite good at highlighting the inconsistencies and made it understandable to non technical people.

  25. While it seems that nothing new came out of last nights 4 Corners, I think the value of it is that it put in one place the reality of the NBN for all to see.

    People who have not followed the issue closely, unlike many of us here, may now be aware of what a f@#k up Turnbull and our current Government have turned it into.

  27. And you know why the CPG aren’t saying anything about the NBN today? Because they perceive that Turnbull had a win with the Energy policy and they want to get back in his good books.

  37. vic:

    Haven’t heard anything, but I was out of town yesterday with limited access to news and didn’t get home until late.

  38. C@t @ #74
    The Jr Hennessy blog article really hit the spot.
    The CPG are afraid that if they report indiscretions they will be cut off by all sources, not just the one they have reported on, hence the strong reluctance to report & the mutually supporting convention.

  39. It is not so much what the 4C program itself said, but the associated commentary that has been generated in the MSM and social media. In turn, that has led to people sharing their lived experience with Fraudband.

  42. The failure of the NBN is purely of the LNP’s own making……It’s on the record…Abbott…” I will demolish the NBN”…Turnbull did the dirty work.
    Chickens.Home.Roost.

  43. That’s fair enough.

    @noplaceforsheep · Oct 22
    If single parents are subject to investigation of their sexual lives b/c taxpayer money, so are MPs. Did Joyce use our money for his affair?

  45. Good morning all,

    Turnbull, his ministers and the CPG can continue their three monkeys impersonation for as long as they like re the NBN debacle. They seem to think that if it is not reported it is not happening. Sadly for them it is happening and the more homes and businesses that are faced with the reality the more and more the frustration will bubble along.

    The lived experience, once again, will come home to bite Turnbull and no matter how hard he tries to deflect the blame and no matter how hard the CPG try to cover his arse it will not matter. The problems will continue and as long as the rollout continues to be rushed simply to meet some stupid government KPI the shit will exponently continue to hit the fan.

    Good luck with trying to keep a lid on the problems.

    Cheers.

  47. Doyley – totally agree. What a way for a govt to lose votes. Every day the NBN debacle will be killing them in the marginals.

  48. Doyley

    What angers me is to see Turnbull spouting his lies in QT and his rent-a-crowd behind him nodding and smiling as if he’s just brought the tablets down from the mountain.

  50. lizzie

    It was a long press conference. Started with Five wasted years. Then one journalist started with the spin questions and Bowen had to go into teaching mode.

    Eg Just a fortnight ago it was Liddell that was the energy solution. Now its Turnbull having a plan with no Federal legislation that requires the States to legislate.

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