Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition retains its relatively encouraging voting intention result from Essential Research, as mixed signals emerged about its new energy policy.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has retained its two-point gain from last week on the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48 – primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also records 75% of respondents having voted in the same-sex marriage survey, with 60% having voted yes (down four from three weeks ago) and 34% no (up four).

Other questions related to energy policy, with 35% expressing approval for the government’s new national energy guarantee, 18% disapproval, and 47% unable to day. Only 16% thought it would reduce power prices, compared with 31% who said it would increase them, and 31% who felt it would make no difference. Thirty-two per cent expressed support for the end to renewable energy subsidies in 2020, with 41% opposed; 35% supported the replacement of the clean energy target with new reliability and emissions reductions obligations on retailers, with 32% opposed. Labor was “more trusted to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewables, stand up to the power companies and develop a modern power grid”, but there was little in it on “reducing power prices or ensuring a reliable power supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,288 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 46
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  1. ratsak,
    I was thinking similarly myself in recent days but could not gather my thoughts together quite as well as you have in order to put virtual pen to virtual paper.

    Essentially my thought was that the Coalition, and the Neoliberal political parties in general, so stuff things up whenever they are in power, that when Labor are elected in their wake, eg after the Sub Prime Mortgage & Contracts for Difference disasters, and the GFC generally, then they have to spend a lot of the political goodwill they have been elected with devoted to making the unpopular but necessary decisions that have to be made in order to right the ship.

    So their unpopularity increases, and the Coalition and the Neoliberal agenda parties find fertile ground to criticise Social Democrats, and the Coalition do it was gusto in Australia, and the media go along with every half-baked slogan and stunt and speech given by them. With only superficial analysis. Because it usually sounds punchy and combative. It writes itself for them.

    Then they get elected again. Empty vessels that have made the most noise. Without a clue as to what really is the right thing to do. So the cycle starts again.

    Damn depressing.

  3. [ratsak
    Third Trumble?

    Damn autocorrect.

    Turd Trumble of course.]

    I have that problem in my classes all the time.

    With the “th” sound being very difficult for many learners they usually pronounce it as a “t”.

    I like to have fun and draw a steaming pile on the board to highlight the difference, at least with the older students. 🙂

  4. ratsak and cat

    The good part is that more and more people are waking up thanks to social media.

    Now Labor staffers can directly post past promises. The average person can post their lived experience in real time.

    A good example is with the ME and VAD bills.

    This is why we are heading back to demands for privatisation to end.

    People have a platform they have not had since the days when a leaflet was a newspaper.

  5. Or to put it more simply: The Lib-Nats just don’t care about people, except to the extent they can harvest their votes. Politics really is a lucrative game to them.

  11. Cat

    My metric is the fading screams about the leftists in Social Media. First it was mummy bloggers. Then it was just social media generally. Then it was just twitterati. Now its twitterati that watch QandA

    Thats how I judge the people’s voice is getting louder than the elite owned MSM voice.

  12. kevjohnno

    If I was you I’d go with gt’s advice at this point on your internet connection.

    I know of people who have gone for weeks without even a phone because they held of too long.

  13. Social media is a double edged sword. It’s as easy to spread lies and disinformation as truth.

    Donald relied on it in an environment where the media actually had a semblance of connection to reality.

  15. Morrison says he wants to increase productivity and have Aussies get better high paying jobs.

    Pretty hard when your govt does everything to stop people get a good education, and then stuff up the major driver of connectivity for the future.

    These libs will say anything and the media just parrots it without any real analysis.

    oh, and ‘blame labor’

  16. From Labor caucus today.

    [Paul Karp
    Labor’s caucus has decided to oppose both bills that implement the government’s media deal with One Nation, including the imposition of a “fair and balanced” test on the ABC
    Bill Shorten told caucus the only thing that is fast about the Malcolm Turnbull’s national broadband network is “the speed with which he finds someone else is to blame”.
    Climate change spokesman, Mark Butler, said the government’s national energy guarantee is “nothing more than a plan to strangle renewable energy, investment and jobs”. He said achieving a mix of 28% renewable energy by 2030 would mean “a two-third cut to rooftop solar installation and no large scale projects built over the next decade”.
    Also worth noting that after the shadow cabinet reshuffle, there are now 31 people in the shadow ministry and Andrew Leigh

    who had to take a $40,000 pay cut last reshuffle will now get a pay rise.]

    From the Guardian blog.

  17. C@tmomma (Block)
    Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 11:27 am
    Comment #154

    I’m starting to really like Mr. Turnbull’s photos.

    Very soon now I will have more hair than he (he, he, har de har har).

    😍 😵

  18. Ratsak

    Yes. However at least the truth gets out via social media. It doesn’t via the mainstream.

    I am hoping CBS will change things slightly next year now its a done deal.

    We have the advantage we know there are bots and people employing them.

    They get exposed. In the short term just like the snake oil salesmen in the past that populism may get a hold but the truth will prevail.

    In Australia this type of discourse ended up with Australia leading the way with Labour Laws and other rights as the elites failed in the face of the collective voice of the people.

  19. BIG D

    Great. Now the heat is going to be on Xenophon as he campaigns in South Australia. Will he direct his party to stand up for the ABC and against Murdoch in his political interests to win votes in a State campaign?

    Its close and visceral for him now not a way off in the future as his Senator Term would have taken longer for accountability.

  20. Labor’s caucus has decided to oppose both bills that implement the government’s media deal with One Nation, including the imposition of a “fair and balanced” test on the ABC
    Bill Shorten told caucus the only thing that is fast about the Malcolm Turnbull’s national broadband network is “the speed with which he finds someone else is to blame”.
    Climate change spokesman, Mark Butler, said the government’s national energy guarantee is “nothing more than a plan to strangle renewable energy, investment and jobs”. He said achieving a mix of 28% renewable energy by 2030 would mean “a two-third cut to rooftop solar installation and no large scale projects built over the next decade”.

    This suggests that Labor has decided the way forward is to deny bipartisan support for Turnbull’s flawed legislation and lay out its position on contentious issues well before the next election.

  21. ACOSS: Our line in the sand: We do not accept a market approach to human services, too many failed examples, says @cassandragoldie #australia2030

  22. jen

    These libs will say anything and the media just parrots it without any real analysis.

    And if you engage with any of the MSM, you get superior condescension in return.

  24. “Bang for our buck”, FMD, don’t worry about the Society you are creating, it’s all got to be about dollars and cents!

    [Simon Birmingham also had some things to say about the Productivity Commission report while talking to Sky this morning:

    Now, this Productivity Commission report really is a call to arms to the Labor Party, to the Senate crossbench – particularly the Nick Xenophon Team – to reconsider their position around higher education reforms, because the Government is already one step ahead of the Productivity Commission. We’ve already put a focus on how we can get better bang for our buck in education, drive efficiencies and drive the public dollar, the taxpayer dollars further. We’ve already put a focus on how we actually put in place a performance metric for universities that will hold some of their funding contingent upon a range of things including, ultimately, graduate outcomes. We’re taking action here and the only roadblocks are those who seem to want to call for another reform or review.]

    From the Guardian blog.

  25. ACOSS tweeted a line about the GDP of Victoria increasing after the Bushfires and how thats not a measure of the wellness of society.

  26. Lika a blast from the past, neoliberalism is alive and kicking at the Productivity Commission. Think of it as your taxes at work promoting the IPA agenda.

    Automatic dispensaries would replace community pharmacies, low-value health care procedures would be defunded, hospitals would be rated on the basis of outcomes, people with real-world skills would be made teachers, and drivers would be charged for the use of roads under a series of bold proposals the Productivity Commission believes could add hundred of billions of dollars to Australian GDP over the next few decades.

    If the first of a series of five-yearly reports commissioned by Treasurer Scott Morrison, Shifting the Dial, the Commission says productivity growth has fallen to a fraction of what it was in the 1990s and that without an improvement future income growth is likely to be half of historical levels.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shakeup-for-pharmacies-schools-and-universities-as-productivity-commission-unveils-multibilliondollar-growth-plan-20171023-gz6tud.html

  28. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/23/brexit-transition-period-final-eu-trade-deal-theresa-may

    Tory neo-imperialism, nationalist nostalgia, reactionary impulses, fear of the future, responses to loss and plain old cowardice, bigotry, self-deception, incompetence and stupidity propel the UK toward its Looking Glass moment. The Brexiteers appear to be unable to understand that the EU will not – absolutely cannot – indulge Anglo-dreaming. I guess the question is whether the realists on both sides of the UK Parliament can unite and avert impending economic and social disaster.

    We are observing the results of a split in the ruling establishments, the modern aristocracies and their collaborators, of the UK and the rest of Europe. Such splits are not confined to Europe. They are evident in many parts of the world, including in this country.

  30. Automatic dispensaries would replace community pharmacies, low-value health care procedures would be defunded, hospitals would be rated on the basis of outcomes, people with real-world skills would be made teachers, and drivers would be charged for the use of roads

    Definitely a world suitable for robots, run by computers. No humanity allowed.

  32. Paul Krugman on “The doctrine of Trumpal infallibility”
    Not just about Trump, but about the mental problem of being unable to admit you have been wrong.
    Detail about all the economists who forecast INFLATION! as a result of quantitative easing after the GFC. They were wrong, but still are regurgitating the same tripe.

    Again, everyone makes forecast errors. If you’re consistently wrong, that should certainly count against your credibility; track records matter. But it’s much worse if you can never bring yourself to admit past errors and learn from them.

    That kind of behavior makes it all too likely that you’ll keep making the same mistakes; but more than that, it shows something wrong with your character. And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/23/opinion/federal-reserve-john-taylor.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  33. 4c might seem old news to us. but that does not mean it is the same for the general public.
    At last a major news program has highlighted the mess that Turnbull has made of the NBN.

    Of course, the MSM will ensure it sinks like a stone.

    On cue, someone got arrested on funding terrorism charges. It has become so predictable.

    But at least 4c is out there and is a reference and a springboard.

  34. lizzie @ #178 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 12:07 pm

    Automatic dispensaries would replace community pharmacies, low-value health care procedures would be defunded, hospitals would be rated on the basis of outcomes, people with real-world skills would be made teachers, and drivers would be charged for the use of roads

    Definitely a world suitable for robots, run by computers. No humanity allowed.

    Interesting that you mention robots lizzie.

    The Russians are onto it.

    https://youtu.be/b6NqscIsidQ

  35. So it looks like the Productivity Commission has identified some problems as justification for doing what they wanted to do anyway, regardless of how these actions actually relate to the identified problems.

  36. lizzie
    Automatic dispensaries would replace community pharmacies, low-value health care procedures would be defunded, hospitals would be rated on the basis of outcomes, people with real-world skills would be made teachers, and drivers would be charged for the use of roads

    Definitely a world suitable for robots, run by computers. No humanity allowed.

    The people with plenty of money, like those heading the Productivity Commission, could afford to escape the existence to which they are condemning others.

    The expensive private schools and expensive private hospitals would magically escape this neoliberalism claptrap.

  37. The new Adelaide Hospital has an automatic pharmacy dispensary system. Each patient meds are ordered up them the system finds them. puts the order together and spits them out. ready to go to the wards.

    ilizzie @ #178 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 11:37 am

    Automatic dispensaries would replace community pharmacies, low-value health care procedures would be defunded, hospitals would be rated on the basis of outcomes, people with real-world skills would be made teachers, and drivers would be charged for the use of roads

    Definitely a world suitable for robots, run by computers. No humanity allowed.

  42. “We thought, if we don’t say something, it’s going to be accepted that someone who’s singlehandedly destroying everything that we stand for is going to be backing tourism awards, which is just laughable.”

    Many Whitsundays reef tour operators were outraged by Adani’s now-abandoned plans to dump dredged seabed in reef waters while expanding its Abbot Point coal terminal, just 100km north of Airlie Beach. In 2014 the plans were changed so that the spoil would be dumped in wetlands in the Caley Valley.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/24/queensland-tourism-award-winner-rejects-adani-sponsored-prize?CMP=share_btn_tw

  45. “You don’t need someone with educational training to teach your kid. This guy was actually an engineer, so he knows what kind of maths your kid needs.”

    “You don’t need someone with medical training to mend your leg. This guy used to play football, he knows what your leg’s for.”

  46. zoomster @ #191 Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 – 12:31 pm

    “You don’t need someone with educational training to teach your kid. This guy was actually an engineer, so he knows what kind of maths your kid needs.”

    “You don’t need someone with medical training to mend your leg. This guy used to play football, he knows what your leg’s for.”

    touché big time

  47. Schadenfreude George‏ @GeorgeBludger · 3h3 hours ago

    The best part of last night’s #4Corners #NBN story was when that guy drove to the destination faster than his upload. Sneakernet revival

  48. Schadenfreude George‏ @GeorgeBludger · 3h3 hours ago

    The best part of last night’s #4Corners #NBN story was when that guy drove to the destination faster than his upload. Sneakernet revival

    The Libs know how to fix that problem. They are planning for all roads to be turned into narrow goat tracks with many potholes.

  49. Because of storage medium density sneakernet has always been pretty good under specific conditions. And 8 TB USB HDD in a car travelling 60 km / hour gets you

    ~17 Gbps within 60 km* , if you pack a car with the maximum storage space it can fit you can get hilarious results.

    * Not really the USB interface is substantially slower than that and will generally be the bottleneck but that’s the headline data transfer rate.

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