The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.
Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.
In my view Brexit will not happen.
At the beginning there was a European legal opinion that Britain had to put the deal to parliament and it must pass; fat chance.
There are now Legal opinions that Britain can say “oop sorry” at any time. In my view it will come to a point where Corbyn is not going to be able to hide behind “it has been decided”, as the Conservative Gov will have collapsed.
Europe will have the ace; what will they sell it for is the unknown.
Good Morning
And the Tory Government refuses to confirm, deny nor release a report that is supposed to show a devastating impact of brexit on Scotland.
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15595115.UK_refuses_to_confirm_or_deny_existence_of_report_which_shows_devastating_impact_of_Brexit_on_Scotland/
swamp
If I recall correctly Corbyn and many Labour Westminster reps were personally in favour of ‘exiting’ but I don’t know that they made it even one of their ‘always’ mention things at the last election.
If they say now that if they get in the UK will be wanting to stay the EU will be in a perfect place to have Barnier and his team produce a list of specific concessions the UK negotiated on entry and since. The EU will want them on ‘bog standard’ EU terms if they are going to stay. I’d imagine as well as the EU Budget contribution that the EU think is due they’ll also include some charge to cover the EU’s costs in the negotiations.
It’s obvious that it’s possible to stay but the EU will make them eat a lot of humble pie.
If the Scots are smart they should be doing their best to get the idea of ‘nation’ and ‘country’*established in the rules i.e ‘nation’ being the joining entity with ‘country’ and if the ‘union’ of recognised countries breaks up that the individual countries have temporary membership for a period of some years to achieve full permanent membership. You’d think for Scotland only the financials would need to be done but the Scots would need to be a lot more hard headed on these than they have been in the past.
(The nation/state thing probably wouldn’t help Catalonia very much. Scotland being a country in its self would be accepted fairly easily by most but Catalonia would be, I think, considered a province)
* = There may be such a concept in the rules already but it doesn’t seem to provide the Scots with what the want.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Well I only slept until 0630 after a very successful (and late) quiz night so the Patrol is a goer!
Anna Patty has a very disturbing article in the operation of certain aged “care” facilities. At the moment we are looking around to find a nursing home for my 92 year old mother so it worries me.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/cost-cutting-and-understaffing-of-aged-care-homes-leads-to-rationing-and-neglect-20171009-gyxn7b.html
Peta Credlin grits her teeth and declares that axing Turnbull will not fix things. Google.
/news/opinion/dumping-malcolm-turnbull-will-not-fix-the-problem-with-our-parliament/news-story/547f405ec4650468e183344cd492922c
Mesma kicked some sand at Kim and got a response.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/they-will-not-be-able-to-avoid-a-disaster-julie-bishop-comments-prompt-north-korea-threat-20171014-gz13tp.html
David Wroe tells us that internet-connected products from baby monitors to sports shoes will soon bear a mandatory Australian cyber security consumer rating amid growing alarm at hacking of everyday devices.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/webconnected-household-devices-to-face-mandatory-rating-over-spying-fears-20171013-gz08jp.html
Trump’s decision to go it alone with rapid fire announcements on healthcare and Iran reflects his boiling frustration with the limits of presidential power, analysts say. As a report says he hates ‘everybody at the White House’, the president has taken his own radical steps on Iran and healthcare.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/14/donald-trump-iran-healthcare-white-house-corker
Thumbing its nose at the Diocese of Sydney the Perth diocese of the Anglican church has offered a “heartfelt apology” to Australia’s gay and lesbian community, saying the church was “deeply sorry for any harm we have done”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/14/perths-anglican-church-offers-heartfelt-apology-to-lgbt-community
This New Zealander says that the country achieve marriage equality through community and civil activism. The debate in Australia has been hijacked.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/14/australias-marriage-equality-process-did-not-have-to-be-so-politicised
Eighteen state MPs would be out of a job under Nick Xenophon’s plan to shake up the political system he says is failing South Australia. Revealing his first policy since announcing he would run for State Parliament at the March election, the SA Best supremo has pledged to reduce the number of SA MPs from 69 to 51. Google.
/news/south-australia/sa-election-2018-nick-xenophon-plans-to-reduce-the-number-of-mps-in-state-parliament/news-story/fd07f96561e88935ef26524ee8dafc68
A reminder is due. The reason people thought Corbyn was a bad campaigner was because he did not campaign on Brexit.
The policy of Labour was to stay in the UK. It was only Corbyn personally who was seen as a Brexiteer. However his support for Brexit was not strong enough to stop him campaigning for Remain however lacklustre that campaigning was.
So if facts pile up and even soft Brexit looks unworkable Corbyn has an out clause. He did campaign for Remain.
Section 2 . . .
David Penberthy takes Abbott and Pell to task over climate change. Google.
/news/opinion/tony-abbott-and-cardinal-george-pell-in-song-on-climate-change/news-story/ed425409927c86e4812febc13852f590
Katharine Murphy’s obviously has had enough of the climate change debate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/14/perths-anglican-church-offers-heartfelt-apology-to-lgbt-community
With such a litany of wrongdoing from the Commonwealth Bank, how long can the Turnbull Government resist calls for a Royal Commission?
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/commonwealth-bank—and-turnbull—expose-australians-to-serious-ongoing-financial-crime,10818
Jess Irvine writes that is goodbye for the Aussie backyard for new home buyers.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/diary-of-a-first-home-buyer-week-4-farewell-to-the-aussie-backyard-20171013-gz0shl.html
Trump exposes the religious right’s moral pretension for the hypocritical veneer it’s always been.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/14/trumps-religious-right-hypocrisy-values-voter-summit
Trump might be feigning insanity. Then again, psychiatric opinion says he’s mad, bad, and utterly dangerous.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/10/14/donald-trump-crazy/
Electric-car maker Tesla fired hundreds of workers this week after a series of performance reviews conducted during the biggest expansion in the company’s history. A rather petulant Elon Musk?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/tesla-fired-hundreds-of-employees-in-past-week-20171014-gz0z7r.html
The Nationals are being accused by Labor of “dirty tricks” in two crucial byelections in Murray and Cootamundra over messaging the ALP alleges is attempting to masquerade as official NSW Electoral Commission material.
\http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/dirty-tricks-alleged-as-voting-takes-place-in-critical-nsw-byelections-20171014-gz0zht.html
Now IRELAND has a hurricane heading for it!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/hurricane-ophelia-strengthens-as-heads-towards-ireland-20171014-gz14ge.html
John Schwartz asks where do all the disgraced CEOs go.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/having-walked-the-plank-where-do-all-the-disgraced-ceos-go-20171014-gz0xuz.html
What trade skills do you wish most you possessed?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/tradie-envy-the-behavioural-economics-of-the-diy-skills-we-wish-we-had-20171013-gz0wp7.html
Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner
Sarah Gill says that Abbott has lost touch with reality when it come to climate change (at least!).
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-has-lost-touch-with-reality-on-climate-change-20171011-gyyuv1.html
The SMH homes in on our love affair with sugar.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/things-go-better-without-sugar-20171013-gz0cw0.html
Steph Peatling wonders whether fines could improve the behaviour of MPs.
Weinstein’s just been kicked out of the Academy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/10/14/harvey-weinstein-kicked-out-of-academy-of-motion-picture-arts-and-sciences_a_23243556/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Matt Davidson puts Abbott where he should be.
Some contrasts from Matt Golding.
Peter Broelman enters the editing suite in Hollywood.
Matt Golding and the first signs of spring.
Golding on the rampant dumping of bicycles.
Glen Le Lievre on the government’s mooted SMS reminders to curb electricity consumption.
Mark Knight on the decline of Harvey Weinstein.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7fd55e376654ad5217e77cdffd083974?width=1024
AP: Pornography publisher offers up to $10 million to anyone with information that leads to Trump’s removal from office. apne.ws/VDIIwNb
https://twitter.com/ap/status/919307550490877952
This might sway some in the GOP. After all it seems money is their god.
BK – No doubt X has a list of seats to abolish that would include no seats where he thinks his ‘team’ have a chance in.
BK
Considering the cost of going into an Aged Care home, I’m wondering about the alternative of one or two aged living together and paying their own Carer.
thehill: Iranian president to Trump: We will not bend down before a dictator hill.cm/YVScyGL pic.twitter.com/tslurtJMsr
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/919253750912634880
Trump has outdone himself here. He has managed to put Iran on the side of democracy.
Ctar
It seems to me that the Scottish Government is already undertaking a fairly extensive country to country “diplomacy”.
Sturgeon has just spent two days in Iceland as Scotland is a member of the Arctic Circle thigo. It has established Business Hubs in Dublin and London and just announced Hubs for Paris and Berlin.
The First Minister travels internationally mainly in Europe and US. She has frequent direct contacts with Brussell, just not yet as a. Head of State.
latikambourke: Either the LNP is branching into offering some unusual services or candidate Belinda Kippen needs a better subbie. pic.twitter.com/I3AcWNYPk5
So if facts pile up and even soft Brexit looks unworkable Corbyn has an out clause. He did campaign for Remain.
Corbyn said the other day he voted for remain and still would vote for remain; this was after May (who voted remain) refused to say what her current vote would be. Labor can pounce at any time they like.
The outcome of this depends on what Europe wants; Europe is more stable and stronger with GB than without.
Is it possible that the weather is trying to teach climate denier Trump a lesson?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/hurricane-ophelia-strengthens-as-heads-towards-ireland-20171014-gz14ge.html
Swamp – As I said I think they have a chance of doing it if they talk to the right people and produce the right sort of financials.
There’s no problem, I think, on the recognising of Scotland as a country that’s currently in a union.
The right timing will be crucial.
Swamp
Scotland has a serious advantage over England. Less Murdoch influence.
Good Morning Bludgers : )
I’m surprised Nick Xenophon’s first policy announcement wasn’t to reduce MP numbers to 51 but to 1. Him. Maybe next election.
Has anyone ever said he’s a dangerous narcissist, in a long line of them at the moment? I think he is.
Not that I wish ill on Ireland but it’s interesting how the hurricane approaching it has been given a romantic name. : )
guytaur
latikambourke: Either the LNP is branching into offering some unusual services or candidate Belinda Kippen needs a better subbie. pic.twitter.com/I3AcWNYPk5
comment image
See, spelling is important!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2017/oct/15/why-tony-abbotts-climate-snow-job-mistakes-australia-for-europe?CMP=soc_568
Note to swamprat,
Australian State Premiers and Chief Ministers travel all over the world representing their patch as well. They establish Business Hubs in other countries as well. Doesn’t automatically follow that they are prepping for secession.
frednk
It seemed to be treated as a ‘by the way’ issue in the national election.
Next election Labor need to be pointing out they want the UK to stay while the Tories are busy getting the UK chucked out.
C@tmomma
Not that I wish ill on Ireland but it’s interesting how the hurricane approaching it has been given a romantic name. : )
the last big one to hit Ireland had a romantic name too – Debbie!
Guytaur.
Murdoch owns one of the major daily newspapers. Daily Mail is it?
EVERY medium in Scotland from BBC STV to all newspapers (except one tiny circulation one) are fiercely anti SNP, anti independence.
A small club of super- rich who fund the misnamed Scotland in Union (rowling, snow etc) are reported to have close to £400,ooo in a fund to spend as soon as a hint of a second referrendum is announced.
The 2014 campaign was swamped with massive spending, outright lies threats and blackmail in the last two weeks from the Unionists.
The ONLY media open to independent supporters is social media funded through crowd sourcing and volunteers.
don @ #921 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 8:00 am
The letter was quite a mouthful!
Don
No argument from me about spelling. I may have typos. However I am generally a good speller. Not excellent just good.
I can do typo city however.
Its why I always said getting rid of subbies in media is a huge mistake.
I personally would appreciate a subbie. Hopefully when AI gets better autocorrect will become that subbie. At the moment a long way from it.
As far as that letter goes, on the serious side, I wondered what was the corollary to, ‘The LNP will not increase car rego’? Does it mean, as in NSW, that payouts for car accident compensation will be severely curtailed? Someone should ask Tim Nicholls that.
don @ #925 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 8:32 am
Oi! ; )
I wonder if anyone else will get a word in edgeways on Insiders with ‘Sad Sack’ Henderson on the couch today?
C@
For us that’d be a ‘no’ on sucession – What would we be wanting to leave?
By you think it would be high on the list for all Scotland’s offices in other EU member Countries.
C@tmomma
Not sure what you are saying.
The Scottish Government better be “preparing” for independence otherwise it will lose a lot of its supporters.
Of course it is using its hubs and contacts to put Scotlands predictament to foreign powers, in Europe especially.
frednk
Corbyn said the other day he voted for remain and still would vote for remain.
Yes he did, barely. Cameron put everything he had into it including his career, Corbyn was roundly criticized by everyone particularly the left elite for his lack of enthusiasm, nearly lost him his job, but he was very astute not campaigning strongly if at all in working class areas. Even now he is cagey as hell, have a look at the voting demographic of the leave campaign the for older working class it was near 70 %.
I would not be presuming that Corbyn will not win the next election it will be up against Boris and love him or loath him is a very good campaigner. Winning London is not easy it is a very strong Labour city, no mean feat.
Swamp
Thats because most of the media in Soctland is owned in London. The Daily Mail is owned by Lord Dacre who I think is to the right of Murdoch.
I am not surprised by the media domination. However as the last Independence vote showed people can see through that. Its just how many can be convinced in the meantime.
I expect Scotland to become Independent at some stage. As we now Scottish Nationalism is a big thing. Lots of historic scars that have never settled due to the Monarchy dictatorship just imposing union on Scotland.
If the UK stays in the EU I think the vote will be stronger. Especially if EU reform sees a more democratic people have their say in the EU parliament.
Guytaur murdochs is The Sun i think?
C@
I assume the wont stop the third party insurance decreasing what they cover or increasing their premium charges.
The next Atlantic Hurricane on the season will have a name starting with ‘P’. Maybe Ireland could have had Hurricane Patrick or Paddy.
CTar1
frednk
Corbyn said the other day he voted for remain
It seemed to be treated as a ‘by the way’ issue in the national election.
Next election Labor need to be pointing out they want the UK to stay while the Tories are busy getting the UK chucked out.
Agree; except all Tories will not accept a hard exit; nor will they accept a negotiated position. It’s the old merchant over landed class thing all over again. The merchants have too much to lose.
This will come to a head before the next elections.
Corbyn’s position was; had referendum, been decided; silence.
The Tories position is; lets tear the party apart over the issue.
Why would Corbyn want to stop them?
Swamp
Yep
CTar1 @ #937 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 8:43 am
Exactly.
Simplistic bromides, which disguise an element of ‘mean and tricky’, appear to be the political currency of the LNP/Coalition these days
Steelydan
…
Even now he is cagey as hell.
…
Agree.
…
Boris and love him or loath him is a very good campaigner. Winning London is not easy it is a very strong Labour city, no mean feat.
…
By the next election Boris will be a nobody. The conservatives will have seen to that.
Guytaur @8:31 “The argument offered by Maley is one that echoes Abbott and other conservatives such as Barnaby Joyce and Matt Canavan that industrialisation powers economic growth and thus it would be wrong for us to deny this to other nations.”
And for that matter why are they fostering the de-industrialisation of Australia, leaving us with a third world economy based on mining?
In any case, Barnaby and Abbott aren’t pushing coal to benefit third world countries.
Guytaur
There is a very strange voting breakdown in Scotland.
Despite the 65% in Scotland who voted Remain to EU there was a small but significant group of voters that voted Leave who had voted Yes to independence.
This group wants Scotland to be independent of both UK and EU!,
Also There were also a significant group who had voted No to independence who voted Remain.
In addition there were changes of mind No to Yes and vica versa.
It is a tricky tightrope. The SNP is very pro EU but against UK. Next time the independence movement must be seen to be wider than just the SNP
gt
I don’t want ‘autocorrect’.
The way I have my spell checking set up is to suggest changes but not do them unless I chose to.
Swamp
I expect Scotland long term will be in the EU.
The reason I see Independence for Scotland as inevitable is not just the history. Its also the change of minds by the merchants in England thats coming. What change of mind? England like the rest of the UK is far more along the renewable path than we are. So their view of fossil fuels is not like ours is.
So they can see the decline in revenue from the North Sea which is the major economic reason English officials want Scotland to remain in the Union.
When those revenues dry up the southerners will not be so keen on union as they are now.
CT
Same here. I Used subbie as subbies spot spelling and grammar with all the skills a human can muster. Thus when AI gets that good I will be happy. I don’t think however thats coming soon. AI as distinct from automation is further away than in next couple of years even as it is closer than some people think.
guytaur – “Lots of historic scars that have never settled due to the Monarchy dictatorship just imposing union on Scotland”
Actually the ‘canny’ Scots sent themselves broke through piss poor dud investments in the caribbean, and begged for union with England as a way out.
With regard to brexit, it needs to be understood that the people voted for Brexit for a reason.
The issue then becomes determining the extent to which those reasons have abated.
As far as i can see the dominant reasons were:
1. People in the manufacturing heartland of the North have seen little benefit from joining Europe so they are resentful and hope that Brexit may return them to better days
2. Polish plumbers and Rumanian sex workers have taken the jobs
3. Europe (read Germany) have accepted millions of unvetted refugees from Africa and they are all headed to Calais and to UK.
4. Europe is good for rich Londoners who earn money in finance and can holiday in ibetha but useless for the working class North who have no jobs and cannot afor to travel to Europe to get any benefits from the EU.
For Remainers to get any realistic traction they need to deal with those four issues. If they do not then the Brexiters will win.