BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Labor bites and holds its poll trend gain from last week, and Essential Research unloads a set of state voting intention numbers.

The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.

Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

  1. cupid:

    Plus the main protagonists for institutional religion and religious belief are totally out of touch with mainstream society.

    Only that fellow in the Gosford anglican church stands out as someone genuinely prepared to stand up for social justice. The rest of them are just ecclesiastical show ponies desperately hanging onto their power.

  2. [Confessions
    Is it news that a church leader would encourage his congregation to vote against SSM? You’d file this one under N for No Shit Sherlock.

    What is newsworthy however is church leaders speaking out for equality and justice. They are so few and far between these days.]

    It’s not news!

    While I’ve criticised the message it should not have been given prominence outside the Church.

    The Churches are free to push their opinions on their own congregations if they see fit but it has no place in the wider societal debate.

    I think it is poor that the ABC gives this any prominence at all.

  3. antonbruckner11 @ #1300 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 7:14 pm

    It’s fascinating how the Anglicans grabbed the highest spot in every suburb. You don’t even need to check the denomination of the church. The Catholics usually got the second best spot. No wonder they have such a sense of entitlement and superiority.

    Not in Brisbane. The Sydney Anglican diocese never shared its wealth with new dioceses being created around Australia so they were as poor as church mice (and still are, at least in comparison to the wealth of Sydney).

    In Brisbane, the Catholic Archbishop James Duhig (1917-1965 – that’s his term as Archbishop, not his life span!) was a very astute real estate investor and progressively grabbed hilltop sites in all the developing suburbs. So now Anglican churches in Brisbane are mostly in fairly undistinguished locations with Catholic churches, schools and other establishments looking down on them.

    As a Brisbane Anglican I feel this keenly!

  4. Confessions @ #1302 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 7:26 pm

    cupid:

    Plus the main protagonists for institutional religion and religious belief are totally out of touch with mainstream society.

    Only that fellow in the Gosford anglican church stands out as someone genuinely prepared to stand up for social justice. The rest of them are just ecclesiastical show ponies desperately hanging onto their power.

    That is actually not the case. There is a minority of reactionaries in some very senior positions in many churches but I would say that the majority of clergy in many churches (certainly in my own church – Brisbane Anglican) have positions pretty close to Fr Rod Bower from Gosford. Many congregations, such as the one I belong to, are actively gay-friendly – we have a rainbow banner out on a major CBD thoroughfare and have a number of people from the LGBTIQ community actively involved in running the congregation.

  5. ajm:

    That’s very encouraging to hear, but I just wish if they existed that they called out the crazy in their own religion/religious institutions more often.

    We constantly hear calls for moderate muslims to step up to the plate and denounce the crazy in their religion, but wouldn’t it be good if moderates from other religions did the same?

  6. The Australian
    9:30PM October 15, 2017
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    David Crowe
    Political correspondent
    Canberra
    @CroweDM

    The Turnbull government is struggling to win back support as it prepares for a new fight on household energy prices, with the Coalition trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in another harsh verdict from voters.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has cemented its lead in two-party terms despite a slip in its core support over the past three weeks, with its primary vote falling from 38 to 37 per cent.

    In a danger sign for the government, Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister to lead by 41 to 33 per cent on the key measure, narrowing the gap from the previous result of 42 to 31 per cent.

    The Coalition held its core support at 36 per cent over a period when it announced reforms to private health insurance, plans for naval shipbuilding, an agreement with gas exporters to boost domestic supply, increases in medicine funding and an agreement with the states on new powers to fight terrorism.

    At 36 per cent, the government’s primary vote is six percentage points below its result at the last election amid fears the Coalition is losing supporters because of the division within its own ranks as well as the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and the Australian Conservatives led by former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi.

    One Nation increased its primary vote from 8 to 9 per cent while support for other parties — a group that includes the Nick Xenophon Team as well as the Australian Conservatives — fell from 9 to 8 per cent.

    Support for the Greens increased from 9 to 10 per cent in a trend that helped Labor keep its lead over the Coalition in two-party terms.

    Mr Turnbull’s standing with voters has been eroded in the latest survey, with 32 per cent saying they are satisfied with his performance, compared to 35 per cent three weeks ago.

    The number of voters who are dissatisfied with Mr Turnbull’s performance rose from 52 to 56 per cent.

    As a result, the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — worsened to minus 24 percentage points.

    Mr Shorten’s net satisfaction rating has also deteriorated, from minus 20 points three weeks ago to minus 22 points in the latest survey.

    The proportion of voters who are satisfied with the Opposition Leader was steady at 33 per cent but the number who are dissatisfied rose from 53 to 55 per cent.

    The latest survey is the 21st consecutive Newspoll in which the Coalition has trailed Labor, a tally that is now used against Mr Turnbull by his critics because he cited the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for challenging Tony Abbott in September 2015.

    Mr Turnbull has retained his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister at a time of disagreement within the Coalition party room on energy policy and continued criticism from Tony Abbott over the government’s direction.

    Voters scaled back their support for Mr Turnbull as better prime minister from 42 to 41 per cent, while they increased their support for Mr Shorten from 31 to 33 per cent. The proportion of voters who were “uncommitted” fell from 27 to 26 per cent.

    As a result, Mr Turnbull saw his lead over Mr Shorten on this measure narrow to 8 percentage points from 11 points three weeks ago and 17 points in the previous survey.

    The Newspoll survey of 1583 voters was conducted from Thursday to Sunday and has a margin of error of 2.5 per cent.

    Human Services Minister Alan Tudge acknowledged that Mr Abbott’s interventions were having an impact on the government.

    “Any sense of disunity reflects poorly on a government,” Mr Tudge told interviewer Patricia Karvelas on Sky News before the Newspoll results were published online last night.

    “Sometimes, when Tony Abbott speaks out, he gives a sense of disunity within the government.

    “Oftentimes it may just be him and his particular views, but nevertheless the media will portray it as being a more significant split within the party than perhaps what it represents at a particular time.”

    Mr Tudge said he was not going to be distracted by speeches from other members that were “contrary to policy”.

  7. phylactella,
    If you are around, just wanted to let you know that my late husband’s uncle was a geophysicist too. He prided himself on having been to every country in the world with his job.

  8. Gee, the Lying Waffle is getting into Lying Friar unpopularity levels

    “The number of voters who are dissatisfied with Mr Turnbull’s performance rose from 52 to 56 per cent.

    As a result, the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — worsened to minus 24 percentage points.”

  9. The report on Newspoll doesn’t attempt to gild the lily: Turnbull and the Libs are on the nose.

    Where is Denis Shanahan these days. He could spin any poll in the coalition favour.

  10. With The Greens’ vote increasing, people are voting with their feet and telling Turnbull, ‘Do something real about Global Warming!!!’

  11. I’m sure Malcolm still doesn’t believe, for a moment, that, on polling day, the electorate will boot him out for a cheapjack badly dressed union hack like Bill Shorten. His Magnificence will prevail. Boy, is he in for a shock.

  12. Anton, I wonder how Malcolm’s cunning plan to pension off Brandis to Lord High Commissioner in London – the QLD casual vacancy to be filled by the booted Canavan will go down with the punters.

  13. antonbruckner11 @ #1344 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 9:44 pm

    I’m sure Malcolm still doesn’t believe, for a moment, that, on polling day, the electorate will boot him out for a cheapjack badly dressed union hack like Bill Shorten. His Magnificence will prevail. Boy, is he in for a shock.

    I can’t wait to see him sail off into the sunset…on Sydney Harbour, near his house. : )

  14. sprocket_ @ #1345 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 9:49 pm

    Anton, I wonder how Malcolm’s cunning plan to pension off Brandis to Lord High Commissioner in London – the QLD casual vacancy to be filled by the booted Canavan will go down with the punters.

    And don’t forget he wants to replace Brandis with the heartless incompetent, Christian Porter as AG.

  15. “And the High Court will so hold!”

    May come back to haunt Mr Harbourside mansion, though he could argue tha he was relying on George Brandis’s opinion

  16. More on the gig economy and its effects.


    However you paint it, the trouble with the gig economy is that it devalues both people and the skills they provide – especially in creative fields. It makes it harder for the talented ones to make a living, while encouraging all of them to believe that they’re disposable.

    Unfortunately the gigging mentality also emboldens traditional employers to treat their workforce will the same lack of respect. Australia has seen some major exploitation scandals in recent times, often affecting some of society’s most vulnerable people.

    Counterproductive

    In the long-run a cut-rate gig economy isn’t just going to hurt workers, it’s also going to hurt those businesses hoping to benefit from it – unless they ensure the system is fair and equitable.

    Many industries are starting to rely more heavily on freelancers, but for this to work there needs to be an adequate supply of skilled workers. This isn’t sustainable if you make it too difficult for quality freelancers to make a living because they’re undercut by low-skilled rivals in a gigging model.

    Businesses won’t benefit from the gigging economy if they drive all the talent out of the marketplace, forcing them to become Uber drivers because it’s no longer possible to make a decent freelance living from their skills.

    When proponents of the gig economy fall on hard times because they’ve decimated their labour market, it will be interesting to see what they’re prepared to do for a fiver.

    http://www.theage.com.au/technology/gadgets-on-the-go/the-cutrate-gig-economy-sounds-bad-for-business-20171012-gz03c0.html?promote_channel=edmail&mbnr=MTAxMjU3NzE&eid=email:nnn-13omn624-ret_newsl-membereng:nnn-04%2F11%2F2013-technology-dom-technology-nnn-age-u&campaign_code=13ITE006&et_bid=29099547&list_name=119_age_tech&instance=2017-10-13–03-40–UTC

  17. Not only has Labor maintained its 54-46 lead, Trumble has fallen back as preferred leader. What will Katharine Murphy write about? Nothing, probably.

  18. Good evening all,

    Good Newspoll result.

    The MSM continue to froth at the mouth in anticipation of Turnbull resetting the agenda with his ” affordable energy package ” and settling the SSM debate within the next month. Neither issue will play out smoothly over coming weeks.

    According to the media lapdogs Turnbull will wipe the floor with Shorten and labor over energy policy as he attacks them for their renewerable energy ideology and the resulting upward pressure on power bills and further decline in reliability.

    I will take a ” bold step ” and predict that Turnbull has made a huge mistake in his rush to present a clear difference from labor on this issue. It is nothing more than a crude political attempt to attack Shorten and Turnbull does not do politics well.

    All he has really achieved is handing Shorten a huge opportunity to be viewed by voters as ” standing for something ” and sticking to his ” core labor values ” on climate action and hip pocket issues for ordinary Working Australians ( whoever they are ! ). On the other hand Turnbull has painted a huge target on his chest as he backs off from another long held belief as he once again falters under pressure from Abbott and co. What does he actually stand for ? will be a much repeated labor line over coming weeks. I really believe Turnbull has blundered badly.

    With regard to SSM, the shit fight within the coalition has not yet began.

    No joy for Turnbull on either issue just more political pain.

    Of course if I am wrong ( highly likely on past form ! ) I will deny everything !

    Cheers and a great night to all.

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