BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Labor bites and holds its poll trend gain from last week, and Essential Research unloads a set of state voting intention numbers.

The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.

Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  3. maybe Momma but that is not my point, protesting the Franklin brought some of the most astonishingly beautiful country into the lounge rooms of Australia this will not happen for the area being mined around Jericho. The port facilities are another matter that is where they may have a win but I would be steering clear of Alpha, Jericho show pictures of the reef only and connecting it to the Adani mine.

  5. Steelydan @ #1255 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 6:01 pm

    maybe Momma but that is not my point, protesting the Franklin brought some of the most astonishingly beautiful country into the lounge rooms of Australia this will not happen for the area being mined around Jericho. The port facilities are another matter that is where they may have a win but I would be steering clear of Alpha, Jericho show pictures of the reef only and connecting it to the Adani mine.

    I’m sure the people behind the protest are not unsophisticated in their approach and methodology. : )

  6. Preventing deaths at sea

    The combination of offshore processing and regional resettlement together with the policy of turning back boats has stopped the flow of vessels arriving on our shores. None could have succeeded in isolation but together they have ended a human tragedy.

    To ensure that people smugglers are denied the opportunity to offer any incentive to vulnerable people to board unsafe boats to make the dangerous journey to Australia by sea. Provided it can be done so safely, a future Labor Government will retain the option of turning boats around.

    So exactly the same as the LNP then. but a lot different to 2007 I notice.

  8. An interesting point which hasn’t been highlighted enough:

    The high court has acknowledged the need for a speedy decision but warned on the last day of hearings it may not be possible, given the complexity of the seven cases before it.

  11. cupidstunt @ #1152 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 11:54 am

    Ctar1
    Yes he almost blew $2 million of his own money at that election.Imagine what he would have done if he’d lost.

    It’s going to be interesting to see how long the pity party goes on for if Trumble is still leader at the next election and the L/NP looses, and even more telling if it is clear on the night that Trumble has lost his seat.

    It’s customary for the newly elected PM to wait until the concession speech is made before the victory speech is made. Should the L/NP lose, there will be one hell of a pity party and we already know that Trumble doesn’t do dignified. My tip is PM Shorten, assuming his victory is clear on the night, will have to do his victory speech without Trumble conceding defeat.

  12. “The Victorian government says it has to wait on the courts to release a report into the bullying culture within the state’s fire services amid new bullying claims.
    Several Metropolitan Fire Brigade firefighters are reportedly alleging a 15-year campaign of harassment from the United Firefighters Union and its members”

    I wonder if this report by the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission will be released before the Victorian election due in Nov 2018.

  13. Steelydan @ #1256 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 6:09 pm

    Preventing deaths at sea

    The combination of offshore processing and regional resettlement together with the policy of turning back boats has stopped the flow of vessels arriving on our shores. None could have succeeded in isolation but together they have ended a human tragedy.

    To ensure that people smugglers are denied the opportunity to offer any incentive to vulnerable people to board unsafe boats to make the dangerous journey to Australia by sea. Provided it can be done so safely, a future Labor Government will retain the option of turning boats around.

    So exactly the same as the LNP then. but a lot different to 2007 I notice.

    Steely, you might like to educate yourself on how we got to the present situation and how our refugee policies became so toxic.
    Here is a good start from yesterday’s Saturday Extra.
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/origins-of-australias-refugee-policy/9036312
    A certain lying rodent and Lord Peacock had a lot to do with it.

  14. The big danger for Trumble if the HC knocks out Beetroot and his dopey mates isn’t the by election.

    It’s the hunt for more dual nats that will be unleashed. Being imbeciles the Libs including Trumble personally put the smear out on Shorten until he was forced to table his paperwork.

    So they’ve set the standard and you can bet they are going to have to meet it. Labor won’t even need to do anything. The media will want to see if they can bag a scalp.

    You’d be a brave punter to think there aren’t a few more members who are waiting to see what the HC decides with nervousness.

    If the HC leaves the bar fairly high, all the Labor members who clear it will have the evidence find its way into the public domain. Then the fun really will begin.

  15. taylormade @ #1262 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 6:31 pm

    “The Victorian government says it has to wait on the courts to release a report into the bullying culture within the state’s fire services amid new bullying claims.
    Several Metropolitan Fire Brigade firefighters are reportedly alleging a 15-year campaign of harassment from the United Firefighters Union and its members”

    I wonder if this report by the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission will be released before the Victorian election due in Nov 2018.

    And your authority for that is?

  16. And since I mentioned Geraldine Doogue’s excellent Saturday Extra, here is another item that caught my attention.

    The Australian Workers Union is trialling an alternative model of organising in the hair dressing industry. Many hairdressers have complained that they are increasingly being treated as independent contractors with some required to rent a chair or space in a salon instead of being paid a wage.

    And a new Brisbane-based insurance company is finding a market for its innovative income protection coverage for independent contractors.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/income-protection-and-unions-in-the-gig-economy/9046994

    That ‘gig economy’ needs a close look from an incoming Labor Govt. It is exploitation under a benign sounding name.

  18. And Bill should move and SSO to debate the Libs private members bill the first day back after the results are out.

    Don’t give the loons time to play silly buggers. Enough Libs will probably agree to bring it on. They should be thinking that they owe the loons nothing else.

  20. swamprat @ #1203 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:27 pm

    So Archbishop Boy George thinks the government should keep out of our bedrooms NOW.

    Obviously it was ok to occupy, with malice, gay bedrooms for the past few centuries.

    It’s only NOW right when there is danger of righting another Howard wrong.

    What a a shameful disgrace he is.

    I’m equally disgusted by what they were up to while they were “sharing” a bedroom with young children.

  23. bemused.

    I know the origins, the point is about all the innuendo and smart-arse remarks about Manus and Nauru and the how hurtful LNP boat refugee policy is yet the ALP have exactly the same policy that is absolute hypocrisy. The Greens can bang on about the evil of offshore processing they have different policy.

    Now don’t change the argument either start working on changing Labor policy or start accepting it. Or join the Greens.

  25. You mean the extra petulant bit when the numbers were looking like he’d have at best a hung Parliament instead of a narrow majority? I saw that. It was pretty bad.

  26. ABC News playing footage of an apparently very important man in an impressive green dress telling his audience to vote no in the ME survey because, think of the children and government should stay out of the bedroom or something.

  28. Hayek,Hitler,Freud , kicking off WWI and now……

    As Austria heads to the polls, fears far-Right kingmakers herald return of Nazi ideology

    >

  31. ratsak @ #1264 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 3:49 pm

    The big danger for Trumble if the HC knocks out Beetroot and his dopey mates isn’t the by election.

    It’s the hunt for more dual nats that will be unleashed. Being imbeciles the Libs including Trumble personally put the smear out on Shorten until he was forced to table his paperwork.

    So they’ve set the standard and you can bet they are going to have to meet it. Labor won’t even need to do anything. The media will want to see if they can bag a scalp.

    You’d be a brave punter to think there aren’t a few more members who are waiting to see what the HC decides with nervousness.

    If the HC leaves the bar fairly high, all the Labor members who clear it will have the evidence find its way into the public domain. Then the fun really will begin.

    I did hear rumours that the ALP had doubts about 8 L/NP members…

  32. Grimace

    I’m equally disgusted by what they were up to while they were “sharing” a bedroom with young children.

    ———-

    Odiously right wing and homophobic Fisher may be but there is no evidence he was sharing a bedroom with children.

    If the equivalent was said about an imam ……. you liberals would all cry “homophobia”.

  33. Is it news that a church leader would encourage his congregation to vote against SSM? You’d file this one under N for No Shit Sherlock.

    What is newsworthy however is church leaders speaking out for equality and justice. They are so few and far between these days.

  36. swamp

    Being Australian Foreign Minister must be the easiest job in the world.

    You just have to get your page of talking points from Washington each morning.

    They have to work out whether to use Trump’s tweets or the Dept of State’s briefing points.

  40. Steelydan @ #1273 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 7:08 pm

    bemused.

    I know the origins, the point is about all the innuendo and smart-arse remarks about Manus and Nauru and the how hurtful LNP boat refugee policy is yet the ALP have exactly the same policy that is absolute hypocrisy. The Greens can bang on about the evil of offshore processing they have different policy.

    Now don’t change the argument either start working on changing Labor policy or start accepting it. Or join the Greens.

    Labor wanted a regional solution and the LNP/Green alliance put paid to that.
    Labor will wok to close those abominations on Naru and Manus.

  45. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 3h3 hours ago
    Great to see such a powerful speech condemning all the abuses the church has turned a blind eye to over the years:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/sydney-archbishop-says-religious-believers-could-lose-their-jobs-if-gay-marriage-is-legalised/news-story/25f0756d4e3423bf7469d751fb18342b

    LOL! And yes church and other religious leaders need to clean up their own backyards before making demands of others when it comes to butting out of private lives.

    The catholic and anglican churches have had a couple of spectacular own goals in the postal survey period and we’re still a ways away from the close off. 😀

  47. cupid:

    It’s on par with those who wondered what the million dollar donation from the anglican church to the No camp would achieve if put towards issues like homelessness, emergency relief etc. The kind of issues Jesus Christ advocated for.

  48. WORD!

    Labor wanted a regional solution and the LNP/Green alliance put paid to that.
    Labor will wok to close those abominations on Naru and Manus.

    Spot on Bemused.

  49. Thats why church attendances have dropped and less people have any faith in the people who run them.The people who run churches are just hypocrites.

  50. It’s fascinating how the Anglicans grabbed the highest spot in every suburb. You don’t even need to check the denomination of the church. The Catholics usually got the second best spot. No wonder they have such a sense of entitlement and superiority.

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