BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Labor bites and holds its poll trend gain from last week, and Essential Research unloads a set of state voting intention numbers.

The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.

Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  2. zoidlord

    What a hypocritical prick. But then that is part of his job specifications.

    Religious believers would be vulnerable to discrimination suits and some could lose their jobs, promotions, businesses and political careers if same-sex marriage is legalised, the Catholic Archbishop of Sydney says

    Australia’s Catholic church is threatening to fire teachers, nurses and other employees who marry their same-sex partner if gay marriage is legalised,

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/married-sunday-fired-monday-churches-threaten-to-dismiss-staff-who-wed-samesex-partners-20170817-gxy4ds.html

  3. So Archbishop Boy George thinks the government should keep out of our bedrooms NOW.

    Obviously it was ok to occupy, with malice, gay bedrooms for the past few centuries.

    It’s only NOW right when there is danger of righting another Howard wrong.

    What a a shameful disgrace he is.

  4. lizzie

    Has Trump noticed the Californian fires yet?

    *******************************************************************

    Trump loaded up his golf clubs and took another taxpayer-funded trip to one of his properties on Saturday.

    According to some quick, back-of-the-napkin math, that means that Trump has spent 27 percent of his presidency golfing and more than a third at one of his ritzy properties.

    Meanwhile, millions of Americans are now at risk of seeing their health care obliterated, Puerto Rico continues to recover from a devastating storm, the Iran nuclear agreement has been abandoned by the U.S., California wildfires are still raging – and, by the way, there have been no steps taken by the White House or Congress to prevent another Las Vegas-style mass shooting from happening again.

    It’s one thing to occasionally take a break, as just about every president has done. But for a guy who is so miserably failing at his job at a time when so much is unfolding across the globe, perhaps he should spend a weekend or two at the White House studying up and doing his job.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/14/golfer-in-chief-trump-spent-27-presidency-golf.html

  6. Sorry for repeat post.

    If Joyce gets booted Labor should play hard ball.

    Mr Katter has been indicating he is not happy ywith the LNP. Also dont forget thats vital if the profits under the crown means the LNP lose two seats


  12. swamprat

    Frednk

    I hate rapping too along with country and western.

    One must be careful with what one posts; rapping will do.

  15. What an offensive thing he is.

    [Anthony Fisher supported the no vote in the same-sex marriage postal survey during his homily at mass on Sunday, telling worshippers the government should “keep out of the friendship business and out of the bedroom”.

    “The state has no business telling us who we should love and how, sexually or otherwise,” he told the St Mary’s Cathedral congregation.

    “The only kind of friendship the state has a proper interest in recognising and regulating is heterosexual marriage, because that’s what leads to children – new citizens – and gives them the best start in life.”]

    So, marriage is only for the conception of children and any other motivation for marriage should be banned.

    [Fisher said it was best for children to have a mother and a father, and that’s what marriage was about.

    He said the vote had implications for religious freedom and it wasn’t unreasonable for people to say they couldn’t support a change to marriage laws until protections were in place.]

    The “protections” are already in place that is why you can refuse to marry people now, even though they may be able to procreate.

    [“If overseas experience is anything to go by, if marriage is redefined it will be very hard to speak up for real marriage anymore – in schools, at work, socially,” he said.]

    As marriage is an institution of the Society, so, “Real” marriage is whatever the Society defines marriage as being.

    [“Traditional believers will be vulnerable to discrimination suits and other kinds of bullying for their beliefs. Some may lose their jobs, promotions, businesses, political careers.”]

    Unlike some of your current employees who have already been threatened with losing their jobs if they pursue their legal rights and get married once the law is changed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/15/catholic-archbishop-urges-no-vote-saying-state-should-keep-out-of-the-bedroom

  16. [frednk
    I notice even the guardian is not willing to allow comments on Fisher’s behavior.    ]

    Probably out of consideration to their moderators. 🙂

  18. Most Catholics will dismiss his views. He is only Archbishop of Sydney.

    Hasn’t the Bishop of Parramatta come out in support of a yes?

  19. lizzie

    Well, that one was below the belt.

    If a chap gets a rising fast ball in the goolies, collapses to the ground and writhes in agony, everyone thinks it is funny.

    If the same thing happens, but to the head, everyone gathers in concern.

  20. Trying to keep any minister(s) disqualified under section 44 in their position is likely to mean either the Governor-General uses the reserve powers on them or there is a High Court challenge to their continuation as ministers.

  21. And will the Turnbull government accept such an action with dignity, or continue to wreck up the joint with their pointless thrashing?

  23. Boerwar @ #1219 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    lizzie

    Well, that one was below the belt.

    If a chap gets a rising fast ball in the goolies, collapses to the ground and writhes in agony, everyone thinks it is funny.

    If the same thing happens, but to the head, everyone gathers in concern.

    Cricket boxes are also a useful accessory when playing water-polo.

  26. lizzie:
    Drilling for oil on the GBR commenced in 1959, by a Canadian company called Humber Barrier Reef. It was on Wreck Island, near Heron Island. I was the offsider to the petroleum geologist in the Queensland Geological Survey – and the core samples came to me for logging. The drilling went very slowly through coral rubble dating back about 10 million years. The drilling mud being used simply disappeared into the rubble.
    Then, at 1800 feet, they hit some very hard rock – the wellsite geologist labelled it “silicified conglomerate”. Core samples sent to Canberra were identified initially as “microgranodiorite”. We looked at it and said “no way” and reported that it was a dacitic tuff – a volcanic ash with chunks of country rock.
    In any case, it was quickly decided that this was basement, and the well was abandoned. In hindsight, this discouraged any later wildcat drilling along the east coast.
    Years later, I have realised that this was probably from the really BIG volcanic event along the east coast about 110 million years ago. The Cretaceous volcanic rocks might easily have earlier sediments further down.
    In 2008, investigating in the area as part of the Census on Coral Reefs, I learned that Wreck Island is in the “green zone” – no disturbance whatever, even for scientific research!

  27. On Insiders today they mentioned, I guess a rumor, that if Joyce is ruled invalid, he might prorogue parliament.
    They didn’t think it likely, but the fact they discussed it as a possibility is significant.

  32. phoneixRed@1.31 pm

    In those far off days, “crackers” or fireworks could be got in all kinds of places and Guy Fawkes Night was just one of ‘days’ such as Empire Day and the like when kids could get the red ‘penny-banger” type which came from China or better, the ‘three-penny banger’ which demonstrably could actually blow the back of a school metal locker – along with letter boxes. The more gentile display fireworks mainly came from the UK. Such explosives in the hands of the young was lethal and fun and eventually totally banned!
    However, it is true that Guy Fawkes came to a terrible end, something remembered on 5th of November. His fellow conspirators also came to messy ends…………..all to do with religion of course……………in this case, seeking a Catholic replacement for the King/Queen of England. They were a determined lot as there were barrels of gunpowder ready to blow the parliament of the day sky high. Best that can be said is that the intention was worthy but the act not….

  36. My guess on proroguing is that they would not do it because:

    1. It looks shifty.
    2. It is shifty.
    3. It will feed straight into the memes of incompetence and weakness.

    Oh. Well, maybe Turnbull will do it after all, then.

  38. bemused @ #1223 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 4:45 pm

    Boerwar @ #1219 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 5:00 pm

    lizzie

    Well, that one was below the belt.

    If a chap gets a rising fast ball in the goolies, collapses to the ground and writhes in agony, everyone thinks it is funny.

    If the same thing happens, but to the head, everyone gathers in concern.

    Cricket boxes are also a useful accessory when playing water-polo.

    I well remember seeing one of my father’s “trophies”. It was one of those steel boxed heavily indented from a Ray Lindwall delivery.

  40. Tricot

    Guy Fawkes night was neck and neck with Xmas when I was a youngun. Ah the joy of Double Happys and Tom Thumbs 🙂 The OMG how things are different “these days” is that as a 5-6 year old I would buy in the 2 weeks before Guy Fawkes night crackers from the local Dairy (Deli). My then fave were “Throw Downs” . Gawd knows what the explosive material was but these pea sized beauties would explode with a satisfying bang when you threw them onto a hard surface !

  42. I read that Di Natale is threatening protests as big as those that stopped Franklin Dam in 1980s.

    Well as long as they can protest in Bondi, I grew up on a property that Adani will be mining on and it is some of the most hot, inhospitable country in Australia, this is not pretty country. The country is that poor that you can only run breeding cows at some of the lowest stocking rates in Australia godforsaken is a term that has been used many a time in this country . Unlike the Franklin this country won’t win any hearts for it beauty even Desert country is more appealing. I can not see any protesting on the streets of Alpha or Jericho. well maybe for a photo op but no long term camps in that country.

  43. Could someone politely inform Anthony Fisher it goes both ways? That there is a likely overwhelming majority of us who wish that the Roman Catholic, Anglican, and any other religion of a similar mind, keep their oars out of OUR friendships and OUR relationships!

  45. Steelydan,
    It’s not where the mine is that is the problem with it, it’s that the side effects of that mine’s production will be catastrophic far and away from Jericho.

  47. Boerwar

    Whats is current labor party policy for Manus and Nauru should they form Government and can you also tell me their policy for refugees arriving by boat as well.

  49. The sinister figures coalescing around Trump.

    With Trump turning and turning in a widening gyre, his crusade to make America great again is increasingly dominated by people who explicitly repudiate America’s premises. The faux nationalists of the “alt-right” and their fellow travelers such as Stephen K. Bannon, although fixated on protecting the United States from imported goods, have imported the blood-and-soil ethno-tribalism that stains the continental European right.
    …
    With their version of the identity politics practiced by progressives, alt-right theorists hold that the tribalism to which people are prone should not be transcended but celebrated. As Lopez explains, the alt-right sees society as inevitably “a zero-sum contest among fundamentally competing identity groups.” Hence the alt-right is explicitly an alternative to Lincoln’s affirmation of the Founders’ vision. They saw America as cohesive because of a shared creed. The alt-right must regard Lincoln as not merely mistaken but absurd in describing America as a creedal nation dedicated to a “proposition.” The alt-right insists that real nationhood requires cultural homogeneity rooted in durable ethnic identities. This is the alt-right’s alternative foundation for the nation Lincoln said was founded on the principle that all people are, by nature, equal.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/sinister-figures-lurk-around-our-careless-president/2017/10/13/09c9448c-af6e-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?undefined=&utm_term=.e2d324c2fd07&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

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