BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Labor bites and holds its poll trend gain from last week, and Essential Research unloads a set of state voting intention numbers.

The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.

Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. Blue Planet take the Two looks one not to miss. But then I’d listen to David Attenborough, narrating paint drying and enjoy it 🙂

    Boiling seas, huge flying fish which snatch birds from the sky and armour-clad octopuses were once thought to be purely the stuff of fisherman’s tales.

    But remarkable new footage, captured over four years by BBC filmmakers for Blue Planet II, has proven that many sailors’ myths are actually true.

    Sixteen years after the original The Blue Planet aired, the series returns this month, promising a raft of new scientific discoveries and filming firsts, which reveal the surprising intelligence and complex social lives of creatures beneath the wave……………………“I’m absolutely astounded really, there was so many new things in this,” said Sir David. “When I saw those eels diving into what was a lake at the bottom of the sea in The Deep episode.

    “It takes a bit of time to get your mind around that sort of thing. How can there be a lake at the bottom of the sea? And then it explodes like a volcano. I couldn’t believe what I saw.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/10/15/blue-planet-ii-reveals-raft-new-discoveries-finds-fishermens/

  2. Twitter, which may have been one of Russia’s most effective weapons in its efforts to meddle in the 2016 presidential election, erased user data and posts that would have been valuable to investigators probing the interference, Politico reports. Cybersecurity officials said the site’s strict privacy policy may have led to deletions of the information, which would’ve helped track the leagues of automated bots, phony ad campaigns, and other information that promoted pro-Trump and anti-Clinton narratives online. “If you have access to all this, you can basically see when botnets appeared and disappeared, and how they shaped narrative around certain events,” one analyst told Politico.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/13/twitter-russia-data-deleted-investigation-243730?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition

  3. cupid

    Imagine what he would have done if he’d lost.

    Not turned up at the after election Lib function and left the country without saying anything?

    Or maybe trying to drown himself while kayaking from his very own Sydney Harbour pier while accompanied by a Customs launch and two AFP guys paddling along behind him?

  4. C@

    Harrison Ford looked so young in the original movie.

    I’ve still got the last bit to watch. Flicking over to watch the Shanghai Open became irresistible last night.

  5. Theres no doubt that Turnbull will leave parliament as soon as he loses his leadership.Then he will write a book with all the dirt on the Libs and how he got shafted twice.

  6. CTar1 @ #1158 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 3:05 pm

    C@

    Harrison Ford looked so young in the original movie.

    I’ve still got the last bit to watch. Flicking over to watch the Shanghai Open became irresistible last night.

    Upon watching the original movie again last night it is easily the better of the two. However, I’m just grateful someone made a sequel. : )

  7. When you read this, you have to ask yourself, how far back did Trump’s plans to seek the Presidency go?

    A close associate of Donald Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn arranged a covert investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was secretary of state, and through intermediaries turned to a person with knowledge of the “dark web” for help.

    Michael Flynn ‘promoted US-Russian nuclear project from White House’

    Flynn, a retired three-star general who led chants of “lock her up” at last year’s Republican national convention, is a central figure in the FBI’s investigation into whether the Kremlin worked with the Trump campaign to sway the US election.

    Flynn is personally and ideologically linked to Barbara Ledeen, a longtime conservative activist who works for the Republican senator Chuck Grassley on the Senate judiciary committee – which is now investigating alleged links between the Trump campaign and Russia.

    Ledeen’s husband, Michael Ledeen, is also a confidant of Flynn, and co-authored a book with him last year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/13/michael-flynn-clinton-email-investigation-russia-dark-web?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition


  8. It will be interesting to see what the RWNJs will do when the Yes vote is confirmed

    When the noisy minority are shown for what they are; will Turnbull have the gumption to call them put.

  9. With Weinstein I ‘m a bit taken aback by the apparent surprise affected by most in the industry and the media. He seems to be the very stereotype of a movie mogul as portrayed in countless movies, books & TV shows.

  10. When you read this, you have to ask yourself, how far back did Trump’s plans to seek the Presidency go?

    Nothing would surprise me. The rise of Trump just shows how much Republicans will tolerate when it comes to winning govt. Even if it’s illegal or unpatriotic.

  11. ab11

    The tone has changed a bit. It looks like even the other Fed Nats wouldn’t mind too much if Joyce, Nash and the ‘Great White Hope’ Canavan ‘disappeared’.

    Scullion, I reckon, would find it hard to not have a big grin on his dial.

  12. antonbruckner11

    It almost brought a tear to my eyes when I read this bit….. 😀

    After three days of hearings, confidence is waning that government MPs will survive the challenge to their election

  13. Mr Turnbull hasn’t repeated his confidence (not quite suitably qualified with ‘based on the advice of the Solicitor General we put in when we ran erstwhile Solicitor General out of his job’) in the outcomes since the HC hearings. No doubt they would have noted his willingness to try to subvert the HC in public. Not that they would allow their emotions to overcome their reasons.

    I hope all seven MP and Senator slackarses pay for being slackarses.

  14. Let’s get something straight, before yet another conservative commentator proposes making chivalry great again to stop the Harvey Weinsteins of the world: There were no good old days for women. Not anywhere, and certainly not in Hollywood. Treating women like disposable commodities is an age-old practice that transcends any one industry but is particularly endemic in those where a few gatekeepers decide who works and who doesn’t, often based on their own subjective tastes. The only thing novel about Weinstein’s behavior, aside from its scale, is how many people now agree it was wrong.

    What has changed is the language we have available to talk about abuses of power, including but not limited to rape. For years, what powerful men did in Hollywood, politics or elsewhere in pop culture was described in terms of “seduction ,” “ sex, drugs, and rock-and-roll ” and “free love,” and it took on a sordid glamour. These men were “womanizers ” and “libertines.” Even now, if you listen to famous people say what “everybody knew” about Weinstein, it’s often couched in language like George Clooney used this past week: “If you’re asking if I knew that someone who was very powerful had a tendency to hit on young, beautiful women, sure.” Weinstein hid in plain sight because there was nothing remarkable about a man trying to trade his power for sex with an otherwise unwilling woman. What else are young and beautiful women for?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/what-counts-as-improper-sexual-contact-its-becoming-harder-to-tell/2017/10/13/b15506c6-af8e-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-c%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.73ae7558e27d

  15. C@tmomma

    When you read this, you have to ask yourself, how far back did Trump’s plans to seek the Presidency go?

    **************************

    Here’s a Timeline of Every Time Donald Trump Ran for President

    Though Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has thus far been a series of unfortunate events, this isn’t the real estate mogul’s first time at the election rodeo. Since the late 1980s, Trump has threatened, with varying degrees of seriousness, to enter the race.

    Here is a timeline of Trump’s history in politics:

    1987-1988: Trump considers a run for president, while simultaneously juggling large debts stemming from his purchase of the Taj Mahal casino.

    2000: Trump enters the presidential race as a Reform Party candidate and receives more than 15,000 votes in the party’s California primary.

    2003-2004: Trump begins hosting the reality show The Apprentice on NBC, which he also executive-produces. He again mulls a run for president, but ultimately decides not to join the race.

    AND so on if interested – article continues :

    http://www.tvguide.com/news/donald-trump-presidential-campaign-timeline/

  16. It will make my year if Turnbull gets it wrong and the high court kicks out the 7 slackarses from parliament.So much for him being a lawyer.I don’t think the bloke will have any credibility left after that.

  17. CS – If Joyce gets booted, Turnbull will look like a total fool and so will his Solicitor General. After all, according to Turnbull, his Solicitor General gave him definitive advice that Joyce didn’t have a problem. I’m sure Turnbull was lying about that. But, if he was, the S-G went along with that without a peep.

  18. cupid,

    I think 6 should be chucked. Xenephon, as much as I’ll be happy to see gone, I think could be said to have made a reasonable effort.

  19. Confessions
    He will contest but he wont like all the opposition he will get and all the campaigning he will have to do all over again.Windsor is bound to stand again too making his life as difficult as possible.

  20. cupid:

    It will just be an annoyance for Joyce but a temporary ‘leave of absence’ from the HoR. The one I really want to see gone is Malcolm Roberts. He really adds nothing of any value to our parliament.

  21. C@tmomma

    Thanks, PR, for all your answers to my questions! : )

    **************************

    Well I proved my memory is not the best with bridges but hopefully more correct with the dreadful Trump….

  22. Confessions

    Roberts may not “add anything” but at least he is not “subtracting” like APVMA Adani Joyce is as he pork barrels his way around

  23. I think Turnbull is secretly shitting himself over the prospect of losing this case in the HC.What a joke of a man he has become.

  24. The fires have damaged or destroyed about 5,700 structures, reducing homes and businesses to ash. The fires’ death toll surpassed the 29 deaths from the Griffith Park fire of 1933 in Los Angeles.The fires have damaged or destroyed about 5,700 structures, reducing homes and businesses to ash. The fires’ death toll surpassed the 29 deaths from the Griffith Park fire of 1933 in Los Angeles.

    Has Trump noticed the Californian fires yet?

    http://www.theage.com.au/world/unwieldy-beast-california-fire-death-toll-rises-as-thousands-evacuate-20171014-gz159x.html

  25. Guardian Australia‏Verified account @GuardianAus 44m44 minutes ago

    Catholic archbishop urges no vote, saying state should ‘keep out of the bedroom’

  26. An intern at the Trump campaign data firm, Cambridge Analytica, left sensitive voter targeting tools online for nearly a year

    An intern at the data mining and analysis firm Cambridge Analytica left online for nearly a year what appears to be programming instructions for the voter targeting tools the company used around the time of the election, raising questions about who could have accessed the tools and to what end.

    Social media analyst and data scientist Jonathan Albright discovered the election data processing scripts — or programming instructions — on what he said was the intern’s personal GitHub account.

    The tool was used to find and group people on Twitter that talked about, or responded to, specific keywords in retweets.

    What is more interesting, he said, is how the tool appeared to retrieve people’s recent tweets and favourites to “expand” Cambridge Analytica’s body of keywords “around specific objects of election ‘outrage’ sentiment’” — like abortion, citizenship, naturalization, guns, and Planned Parenthood.

    “That’s a security issue, in my opinion,” Albright added. “Could Russia find this and use it? Absolutely.”

    Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-data-russia-cambridge-analytica-2017-10#MUagyBKwmAheqsUs.99

  27. Although now a treasured World Heritage Area and marine park, 50 years ago the Great Barrier Reef was targeted for mining.

    In 1967, artist and Mission Beach resident John Busst found an ad in the local paper for an application to mine lime from Ellison Reef for use as cheap fertiliser.

    The proponent claimed it was a dead reef but Mr Hegerl led the survey that showed it was alive and well.

    “Very much a thriving reef,” Mr Hegerl said.

    “I recorded about 26 species of fish and my colleague Ross Robertson found 88 species of coral.”

    They beat the mining bid in court but a bigger battle was looming with the then-Bjelke-Petersen government determined to open the entire reef for oil.

    “I think it was December 24, 1968 that I noticed a government notice in The Courier-Mail [newspaper], in which they were calling for prospecting authorities for the entire Great Barrier Reef region,” Mr Hegerl said.

    In 1979, then-mining minister Ron Camm told the ABC’s Nationwide program “there’s been no scientific evidence ever submitted that crude oil will destroy coral”.

    Mr Camm also claimed in the media that “crude oil encouraged coral growth”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-15/great-barrier-reef-50-years-on-campaigners-return-ellison-reef/9050106

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