The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland. There’s big movement in Malcolm Turnbull’s favour on the leadership trend rating following new numbers from Essential Research, but this measure is over-sensitive to the vagaries of particular pollsters, which I’ve long been meaning to correct for. Full results at the bottom of the post.
Essential Research has also released its quarterly state voting intention results this week, which are accumulated from all of its polling over the past three months. In New South Wales, the Coalition has a steady lead of 51-49; in Victoria, Labor’s lead narrows from 53-47 to 52-48; in Queensland, Labor holds a steady lead of 54-46, which is better than they have been doing from other pollsters lately, with One Nation’s primary vote at a relatively modest 13%; in Western Australia, Labor’s lead is down from 55-45 to 54-46; and in South Australia, Labor has a steady lead of 52-48, with the Nick Xenophon Team’s primary vote at 18%. Read all about it here.
[Dan Gulberry
Barney in Go Dau @ #1044 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 9:21 am
I wonder how much of its increase in prominence in Australia can be put down to Harry Potter?
Absolutely none.]
Why do you say that?
Surely the books have had more cultural penetration than many other possible influences.
lizzie @ #1091 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:18 pm
It is etched in my memory as at the time I worked in an office where we could see the construction progress on the Westgate Bridge and of course the missing section when that occurred. Very sad.
I also knew a bloke who worked on it and he was one of the lucky ones.
John Setka’s fire and passion is well grounded.
zoidlord @ #1065 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 12:49 pm
And there have been how many DV-related murders in the last month?
Not dropping the ball at all, eh, Michaelia!?!
C@t
I can’t imagine why Michaelia was given such sensitive portfolios.
I suspect sectarianism was stronger in Newcastle-Maitland than other areas. Remarkablythrough push and pull and until the Poles and Italians arrived post-war, virtually all Catholics in the area came from a 15 sq km area of the Irish midlands centred on the Rock of Cashel. They had been pushed out not by the famine itself (those people went to America) but by the resultant conversion of agricultural land to pastoral which represented a safer return for the landlords.
Into the 60s coal mining was a protestant job and steelmaking and ship building were Catholic except no Catholic had a white collar job at the BHP until 1960.
C@t….3/3 here….enjoyed the “trick question” elements 🙂
bemused
lizzie @ #1091 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:18 pm
“John Setka @CFMEUJohnSetka · 48m48 minutes ago ”
“47 years ago today, the Westgate Bridge collapsed killing 35 men.
My father survived.
Please remember them
****************************
One vivid memory I have from that terrible disaster is the picture of a car perched half on – half hanging over a big gap where the part of the bridge had fallen – the guy said he was following a car over the bridge in the dark when suddently the car in front tail lights just disappeared and somehow his brain told him to slam on his brakes – and he just stopped as in the photo
Not sure if this works – I need Guytaur to do this for me : )
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=car+on+west+gate+bridge+disaster&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjkz4iwzfHWAhXMy7wKHQZ0Cw8Q_AUICigB&biw=1920&bih=865#imgrc=fNTmmkHvLMP2YM:&spf=1508035332195
On youtube too :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6r9sBMFPPw
phoenixRED @ #1107 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:44 pm
False memory syndrome.
The bridge was not completed then and there was no traffic on it.
You may be thinking of the bridge across the Derwent that a ship crashed into.
Pr
I think you are talking about the Hobart Bridge disaster
phoenixRED that’s Hobart. Westgate was under construction.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/see-it-say-it-climate-change/2017/10/14/83c3c8e4-b049-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.51eaf5b7b401
OC
The pics in the link are all Westgate, I think.
lizzie @ #1112 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:50 pm
Except the one with the car. Watch the movie.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1101 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 10:33 am
They also celebrate Christmas in Potterweorld. That has had no effect on culture. Hallowween would’ve grown to what it is if JK Rowling had never written her books.
It’ s growth here is due to American TV influence which predates Harry Potter by a long shot. American TV also has far more cultural influence than Potterworld.
I concede my “absolutley none” was probably wrong, allow me to amend it to “bugger all”.
If anything Halloween has had more influence on Harry Potter. The growth of Harry Potter Halloween costumes shows that Potter has been commandeered by Halloween, not the other way round.
bemused
phoenixRED @ #1107 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:44 pm
*****************
AND OTHERS : OOOOOOOOOPS
False memory syndrome.
The bridge was not completed then and there was no traffic on it.
You may be thinking of the bridge across the Derwent that a ship crashed into.
MY PROFOUND APOLOGIES : Sorry to mix up the events !!!!!!!!!!! – A Bridge Too Far for me ….. a weekend with my energetic grandkids has got to me I think : )
Test.
Sydney’s drought continues. The weather’s turned, it’s cooler and cloudy, but it still refuses to rain other than a bit of drizzle and a few spits. Meanwhile, it’s been bucketing down just to our North on parts of the Central Coast.
Sydney’s recent rainfall totals:
Last 48 days: 0.4mm
Last 72 days: 1.8mm
You don’t have to believe me, you only need look at the L/NP’s behaviour, they are in a state of panic. They are starting fights they don’t need to (ME), fights they can’t win (GST ), fights that give the loons in their party centre stage (energy) and they are pork barrelling 18 months from when the election is due.
Their internal polling must be diabolical.
Plus, they are pushing arguments at us that are patently untrue, and all the evidence says they are untrue, and everyone knows this already. Such as the Tax Cuts for the Yuuuge Corporates.
I hear they are going to get back on this bandwagon again soon…because, Trump. When everyone knows that Trump is also wrong, because ‘Trickle Down’ is wrong.
It also means that the services we pay for by paying our taxes are cut, as there is no longer as much in Consolidated Revenue to pay for them. Or, if you want them, you pay for them in After Tax Dollars, because they have been privatised by the Coalition and their mates and donors get a healthy cut of the pie, so you actually pay over the odds at the end of the day compared with if you had got the service by way of paying your taxes, as the Coalition’s mates and donors need to make a profit out of it and us.
Not to mention that the Coalition gets to advance their ‘Two Tier Society’ agenda, whereby The Haves get all the quality stuff in Health and Education, and now, it seems, the NBN, and the plebs and serfs get even less than ‘Basic Cover’, as you now need to even pay for that according to Greg the Lying Hunt’s new world of Health.
I’m just hoping that, now that people have woken up to the Coalition schtick, they don’t allow the wool to be pulled over their eyes again by Turnbull throwing a bucket of money around.
Steve777,
Central Coast rainfall today so far: 15mm.
We have needed it though.
lizzie
Because she’s so thick it’s impossible to have a normal argument with her.
pRED @1:44PM – that was the Tasman Bridge in Hobart. An ore carrier crashed into one of the pylons, bringing down a span of the bridge. This happened 5/1/1975, just 11 days after Cyclone Tracey and about 4 years after the Westgate Bridge disaster.
Cracker night in Queensland was on 5 November, Guy Fawkes Day. None of this “Empire Day” affectation!
“Remember, remember!
The fifth of November,
The Gunpowder treason and plot; ”
The rest of the rhyme is pretty instructive. Suspect not many Catholic schools would have allowed it to be recited! http://www.potw.org/archive/potw405.html
Steve777 @ #1116 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:52 pm
Fingers crossed, unless you’re a Pom here for Christmas, but
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/about-us/our-districts/orana/latest-news/climate-overview-may-to-july-2015
(ignore the 2015 in the page link, it’s def Oct – Dec 2017)
lizzie @ #1104 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:39 pm
Because she’s a privileged woman prepared to ignore the issues which are blighting other women.
CTar1
IMO the Coalition have definitely moved to the right, if by that we mean that most of the ministers are hard, unfeeling bastards who are determined to denigrate the poor as welfare cheats and stamp on all ‘social services’.
Wasn’t there a time when only the Immigration Minister was the unfeeling one?
briefly @ #1106 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 1:44 pm
I think I can make a case for the test being biased towards the Left Brain. All 3 questions are computational. I’m a Right Brain person, therefore it was biased against me. : )
Grimace: ‘…..The ME debate being over by the end of the year is ambitious though possible, and simply delusional to think the energy debate will be concluded by the end of the year. There is no hope that Brian Trumble, even assuming he’s still leader at the end of the year, will be able to get any sensible energy policy past the hard right of the party room.’
We may the results of the survey back by the end of the year but there is no way the anti-equality portion of the LNP (hard right :-)) will allow a quick change of the legislation to go through. I think that ME will still be a stench hovering over parliament (and Trumble/whoever the fool is who takes over from him) in September 2018.
C@t
We get ticked off here if we comment on pollies’ clothing, but I can’t help noticing JulieB’s earrings. So obviously extremely expensive and every time I look at them I’m reminded of all the travelling expenses she squeezes out of us.
DG
Yep. US children’s ‘family’ shows like ‘Leave it to Beaver’ or ‘The Brady Bunch’ made a big deal of Halloween long before Harry Potter.
But once the supermarkets got on to it to sell crappy costumes, pumpkins and lollies it went big time.
imacca @ #1030 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 11:57 am
“The shortest IQ test, just 3 questions.
How will you go?
http://www.iflscience.com/brain/prove-your-smarts-with-the-worlds-shortest-iq-test/”
Oh come on
Take away a dollar and divide by 2.
1 machine one widget every 5 min.
If you doubles every day then 1 day before 1/2 the lake.
My problem is I can’t see any other answer.
lizzie @ #1127 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 2:09 pm
Lizzie, you’re quite within your rights to comment, as it’s an economics issue. : )
And, yes, Julie ‘Barbie Doll’ Bishop does like to flaunt her wealth via her clothing and jewellery. very much the epitome of the Upper Middle Bogan.
“Wasn’t there a time when only the Immigration Minister was the unfeeling one?”
No, it was always all of them – as made clear in the early days of the Abbott-Turnbull Government by the 2014 Budget.
Of course Labor won’t pass a highly-biased and exclusionary ME Bill.
“Because she’s so thick it’s impossible to have a normal argument with her.”
I dont know that it being thick as much as simply not giving a toss, being born to rule type nasty.
And in Cash’s case she can always threaten the shrill screech. 🙁 Awful person really.
Have been dealing with IR stuff at work. Very, Very toxic. EBA terminated last month. 🙁
Now, supposedly we are back into negotiations for a new EBA. Management telling staff they are keen to have a negotiated deal by the end of the year and are having meetings scheduled. At the same time telling the FWA (that we have had them into for failing to negotiate in good faith) a different story. committing to only one meeting and then trying to insist on an agenda for that meeting guaranteed to fail..probably acrimoniously. Anyone who’s been around the EBA block once or twice can see where that going.
Their “negotiators” response to ANY proposal that isnt what they have put up is “refer to managements position”. And thats even on clauses, that, in their draft make so sense in terms of actual English language / sentence structure. Seriously, the draft EBA that management put out out to staff a few days ago had one glaring spelling mistake….in the 3 word title……on the front cover…..AS WELL as the bits through out that dont make sense. That they haven even proof read this document has staff really wondering as to management competence.
But, there is a school of thought that its not actually incompetence. They just dont care because they dont intent ot honor anything in a new agreement anyway or agree to any words that actually bind them in any way. Keep the language unenforceable and aspirational.
Interesting that out upper management have take the attitude that staf should just uncritically accept the management spin and i think that is where people like Cash come from. They think people will just accept anything they say and not consider what they actually do. Born to rule, contempt and disrespect for the plebs writ large.
ALP / ACTU “Change the Rules” campaign is going to be a big and important one going into the next election people. All to do with equality. I reckon were up for it. 🙂
What a lot of utter cowpats. I have never had much respect for the Tehan IQ.
Steve777
I’m going back into Vanstone and before.
“Of course Labor won’t pass a highly-biased and exclusionary ME Bill.”
So the Right will make sure the bill is highly biased and exclusionary to ensure it won’t pass.
If the bill has a few boondoggles to appease the Right, Labor should let the bill pass and fix it later. If it is so weighted down as to be an insult to the LGBTI community, it should (and I think will) be opposed.
It will be interesting to see what the RWNJs will do when the Yes vote is confirmed
The news goes on and on about Harvey Weinstein.
It seems that you’re actually a ‘nobody’ if you are actor looking for roles in Hollywood movies who happens to be female and under 70 unless Harvey has, at least, attempted to sexually molested you.
Adani will create “thousands and thousands” of jobs? Even The Australian says this is bullshit: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/fact-check-will-adanis-coal-mine-really-boost-employment-by-10000-jobs/news-story/903c1932738b1d1a1763c74e45f4d7c7
It’s 1,464. The 10,000 figure is from earlier modelling of a larger version of the project, which is based upon dubious assumptions and often misquoted and misinterpreted.
Meanwhile, Barnaby Joyce quotes 30,000 and has pleaded on behalf of starving people in the 3rd world that the project be allowed to go ahead. Barnaby has not shown us the modelling behind his assertions. Surely he didn’t just make it up.
Steve777
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
cupid
CTar1
Is that Turnbull when he loses 30 Newspolls?
Will they accept the verdict? Or will they say that because the postal survey wasn’t compulsory the result isn’t really indicative of voter sentiment on the issue?
Went to see the new Bladerunner. I lasted 50 minutes. Thank God I saved two hours of my day!
Steve777 @ #1136 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 2:23 pm
Exactemundo!
@Confessions
I’d go with Tony Abbott’s stupidity: SSM is just fashion.
antonbruckner11 @ #1144 Sunday, October 15th, 2017 – 2:46 pm
Not a Harrison Ford fan, I see. He’s in the last 2 hours. : )
cupid – Even worse then, I’d think.
But this very reminiscent of his effort on the night of the last election.
Imacca,
ALP / ACTU “Change the Rules” campaign is going to be a big and important one going into the next election people. All to do with equality. I reckon were up for it.
We MUST be up for this fight! Otherwise, say hello to Serfdom, 21st century style.
@Confessions
Of which he actually said that..
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-14/abbott-denies-saying-gay-marriage-is-the-fashion-of-the-moment/4886922