BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 12
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  3. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 5h5 hours ago

    The NBN is the talk of the town in Bathurst. Many streets without internet for 11 days. Blame iiNet, who blame Telstra, who blame NBN Co, who blame Telsta, who blame iiNet. And endless cycle. #auspol #NBN

  4. CTar1

    The Saudis probably feel a strong need to make nice with Russia due to Russia, Iran and Hezbollah coming out on top of ISIS in Syria. With the role the Saudis played in support for the head choppers they will hope Russia can rein in its allies. Relying on the US may not seem so viable these days.

  5. Re: Qld Land Clearing. Qld Labor actually tried on this one, but they couldn’t get the votes. The key crossbench vote comes from an electorate that meant additional land clearing controls would have cost the seat.

  6. lizzie

    Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 5h5 hours ago

    The NBN is the talk of the town in Bathurst. Many streets without internet for 11 days. Blame iiNet, who blame Telstra, who blame NBN Co, who blame Telsta, who blame iiNet. And endless cycle. #auspol #NBN

    Bathurst people need to know they should Blame Turnbull not Telstra or NBN or iiNet.

  12. DG – You have to trust someone a lot to depend on their missile defence system.

    The Saudi’s have been buying lots of equipment from whoever for about 5 years or so. They want lots of tanks but the Egyptians won’t sell them new Abrams ones (it’s strange stuff when you want a new standard western tank you have to purchase from Egypt but they are the only source now – the Yanks no longer have a production line!). They’ve purchased some Leopard II’s instead.

    Wanting to get the price of Oil up is an obvious reason for the Saudi’s and Russians to ‘do stuff’ together.

    The Israeli’s, I read yesterday (AJ, IIRC), are busy in the Sinai. Harassing the Bedouin more than they have for quite some time.

    Erdogan has now moved the Turks into Pakistan v 2.01. Another country who no one cares much about. Huge mistake by him I’d say. Better he had stuck to the EU/NATO direction. If he really wants to blitz the Kurds then I think they will be no push over.

  13. Zoid

    “A stunning new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that based on documented evidence developed with the aid of both Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Israel’s Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations (MOSSAD)

    If this ‘report’ exists, other than in the writers imagination, I’d say it can be put down as a ‘confusion to the enemy’ exercise.


  14. zoidlord

    http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2400.htm

    “A stunning new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that based on documented evidence developed with the aid of both Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Israel’s Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations (MOSSAD), the identity of the person

    So you have found one of the Russian fake news sites?

  15. Bill Maher is with Republican Party.
    22 mins · Los Angeles, CA, United States ·
    I’m so sick of “thoughts and prayers” about gun violence. Thoughts and prayers are the republican way of saying tough shit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73tPqP_1kt8

    “Plus thoughts are the opposite of prayers! A thought is ‘what should I do?’, a prayer is wishing on a star.”

    So true.

  16. I had an interesting discussion last night with a Sydney lawyer about the 44(i) hearings. He has read through the submissions and come to the view that to disqualify persons from election in circumstances where they never knew the were dual citizens is plain silly…but could still happen!

  20. Confessions
    There was a Yes campaign rally down here this morning. Allanah MacTiernan and Peter Watson gave good speeches, and here’s Senator Dean Smith who also geed up the crowd while chipping his partyroom colleagues into the bargain.

    That’s great. There’s a walk for equality tomorrow in Bondi…will be joining in!

  24. briefly

    where they never knew the were dual citizens is plain silly

    Yes. We get that bit.

    But the fact is it is not just law, but constitutional law.

    Should we encourage the HC to just chuck the constitution and we could revert to being a Colony and live happy ever after.

    Of course all ‘Sydney’ lawyers are ‘hot rods’ and others opinions are not worth ‘jack’.

  27. briefly @ #166 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 5:02 pm

    I had an interesting discussion last night with a Sydney lawyer about the 44(i) hearings. He has read through the submissions and come to the view that to disqualify persons from election in circumstances where they never knew the were dual citizens is plain silly…but could still happen!

    I think it effectively already has happened, in the 1995 case. “I never knew I was a dual citizen” doesn’t sound much different from “I thought my foreign citizenship was automatically renounced when I was naturalized in Australia”. Genuinely holding an incorrect view of a fact didn’t save the dual-nationals then; no reason for essentially the same argument to save anybody now.

    The precedent seems to be that matters turn on the fact of someone’s status under foreign law, not whether or not a person correctly understands the facts of their status.

  29. My call is that the High Court will uphold the eligibility of Joyce, Canavan, Nash, and Xenophon. Waters as well but do not know how it works if she has resigned. Robets is gone and Ludlam is not even before the court is my understanding.

  31. I think the High Court has probably effected Xenophon`s timing but he would be switching to State politics anyway because he sniffs a chance at being the next Premier.

  34. Good afternoon Bludgers : )
    Now I’m sure it was unintentional, however, the article on the Facial recognition database by Katherine Murphy that zoidlord put up doesn’t actually concord with his intended aim, one would assume based upon his stridency yesterday, to paint the changes as draconian and unecessary, despite what the headline, ‘Our casual acceptance of terrorism measures endangers liberty’, might suggest. Her opinion is far more considered, nuanced and sophisticated than the headline would suggest.

    For example,

    It really is time to cut the crap. Terrorism has changed our way of life, and in profound ways…

    When political leaders have agreed to a uniform regime that permits children as young as 10 to be detained without charge for 14 days, and when that framework is championed by the most progressive political leader in the country, the Victorian premier Daniel Andrews, things have changed.

    I don’t believe Murphy ipso facto means changed in a bad way. Not entirely. She demands we, as a nation, have a conversation about two things:

    But law abiding citizens who like living in a liberal democracy with personal rights, freedoms and responsibilities, and a modicum of personal privacy, do need to be aware of a couple of things, particularly in the current environment…

    Australia does not have a bill of rights. So rather than sit, like boiling frogs, as law enforcement expands and intrudes, I think the time has come to have a serious conversation about whether we need one.

    We also need serious oversight of the security apparatus, from watchdogs with bite.

    Saying we need better protections for liberty is not, for one minute, an argument that security agencies are overstating the threat. The terrorism threat is very real, both here and around the world. We all know it. It would be stupid to suggest otherwise.

    So, we may need to discuss whether we need a Bill or Charter of Human Rights. Plus, if the government is going to go down the road suggested by the COAG Agreement, it would be sensible to demand that there be strong oversight of the security apparatus. An answer to the perennial question, who watches the watchers when the watchers are watching us?

    Plus she addresses the cynical viewpoint expressed by some here:

    I also don’t take the cynical view that political leaders automatically turn up the volume on national security and law and order to try to boost their political stocks when times are tough.

    Instead she states the completely understandable and reasonable position as it most likely relates to our political leaders and the political calculus:

    I think our political leaders are deeply worried about the current risks and threats and the kinetic nature of national security challenges. No one wants a major attack on their political watch. No one wants to have to console grieving families, or face a barrage of questions about how agencies lacked powers to act at critical times.

    Finally she reassures us that there is, due to the ACT having a Bill of Rights which the Commonwealth must pay heed to, a counterbalance built into the Agreement such that:

    The intergovernmental agreement makes it clear that the ACT “will allow access to its data via the face identification service for the purposes of national security and community safety only”.

    Also,

    The agreement signed by Barr and Turnbull notes “the importance of human rights, specifically the right to privacy”.

    “Any participation in the capability by the Australian Capital Territory will be consistent with the human rights principles as set out in the Human Rights Act 2004 ACT,” the agreement says.

    You might call that two-fifths of bugger all, but as a law abiding citizen, I would call it a start.

    Finally, I saw Pat Conroy on the ABC today stating that he, and most likely the Labor Opposition, is seriously discomfited about the idea of hauling in 10, 11 and 12 year olds to be questioned.

    That may also seem like 3/5 of bugger all to some Bludgers, but at least it is a start from Opposition. Also I could pretty much guarantee that the Labor Caucus will have a thorough debate about how far that particular aspect should go.

    So, thank you, zoidlord for bring the article by Katharine Murphy to my attention. It crystalised and reinforced my own thinking. : )

  35. I never new until a year or so ago that the headline of an article is rarely written by the writer of the article, learnt the hard way.

  36. Terrorism is very real, like bushfires, cyclones, East Coast lows and thunderstorms, all of which have killed many more Australians than terrorism.

  37. Steve777 @ #186 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    Terrorism is very real, like bushfires, cyclones, East Coast lows and thunderstorms, all of which have killed many more Australians than terrorism.

    And we take preventative measures against bushfires, cyclones, East Coast Lows and Thunderstorms and the State employs experts to constantly assess the risk from them for the populace, monitor them and deal with them.

  38. I agree the relevant precedent is from 1995.

    What is the difference as far as the constitution is concerned between someone who mistakenly thought their previous citizenship was dissolved and someone, despite having a foreign born parent never considering that they might have dual citizenship.

    At least that is how I think it should work – ‘reasonable steps’ are needed.

    I still think the conservatives have more ‘luck’ before the High Courts than the left.

  39. I think this bit:

    I also don’t take the cynical view that political leaders automatically turn up the volume on national security and law and order to try to boost their political stocks when times are tough.

    Is more-or-less contradicted by this bit:

    No one wants a major attack on their political watch. No one wants to […] face a barrage of questions about how agencies lacked powers to act at critical times.

    Doing something because it reduces potential negative political repercussions is basically doing something to boost your political stocks. Just not necessarily limited to the “immediately improve poll numbers” aspect that’s probably the main implication in the first paragraph.

  41. In SA, the Libs and Australian Conservatives are dumping on X and ruling out working with him to form government but Labor is much more conciliatory and hasn’t ruled out doing a deal.
    The Libs will find a way to lose this election.

  42. “I never new until a year or so ago that the headline of an article is rarely written by the writer of the article, learnt the hard way.”

    I think newspapers regard headline writing as a special craft, done by staff who specialise in this. I have often noticed in the Daily Telegraph, for example, where a story that is reasonably balanced has a headline designed to push whichever slant the editor / management want to push, or maybe just to sell more papers.

  45. Dio:

    Someone said earlier that the electoral boundaries redistribution in SA 2018 election strongly favour the Liberals. Surely this is their chance!

  47. fess
    “Someone said earlier that the electoral boundaries redistribution in SA 2018 election strongly favour the Liberals. Surely this is their chance!”

    Labor have just sacked their two worst Ministers, Snelling and Vlahos. They’ve got clear air now and a hopeless opposition. And now X is stirring things up. Labor will find a way to win, or the Libs will find a way to lose. You can bank on it.

  48. Steve777 @ #192 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:22 pm

    “I never new until a year or so ago that the headline of an article is rarely written by the writer of the article, learnt the hard way.”

    I think newspapers regard headline writing as a special craft, done by staff who specialise in this. I have often noticed in the Daily Telegraph, for example, where a story that is reasonably balanced has a headline designed to push whichever slant the editor / management want to push, or maybe just to sell more papers.

    A sub-editors job, back in the day -never the journo.

  49. Dio:

    It would be incredible if SA Labor won yet another term. Longevity the likes of the Jelky-Joh era in Qld only without the corruption and the gerrymandering.

    What is wrong with the SA Liberals?

  50. “What is wrong with the SA Liberals?”
    I’ve said this for a long time; they actually don’t want to win government which would be quite hard work. It’s easier to turn up late and bludge off in opposition and you get paid almost as much.

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