BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. A sub-editors job, back in the day -never the journo

    Sub-editors are “journos” too.

    Newspapers employ journalists and within that group there reporters and sub-editors.

    Pedant? Sort of.

  2. I reckon that this would have to be the wettest start to Spring, in Motown, since at least 2008.

    Doesn’t augur well for a 2017/2018 fire season.

  3. kezza2 @ #202 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:44 pm

    I reckon that this would have to be the wettest start to Spring, in Motown, since at least 2008.

    Doesn’t augur well for a 2017/2018 fire season.

    This has been the driest start to Spring for a very long time in this neck of the woods and that doesn’t augur well for Bushfire season either. : (

  4. Rossmcg @ #201 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    A sub-editors job, back in the day -never the journo

    Sub-editors are “journos” too.

    Newspapers employ journalists and within that group there reporters and sub-editors.

    Pedant? Sort of.

    Nuh. Subbies are not necessarily journos, although journos can sometimes be subbies (they’d be unpublished journos, if you want to call them that)

  5. outside left
    Comical Ali lives!!!! Steely Dan, wishful thinking doesn’t count.

    Ummm I could go into the legal argument behind my call but it is awfully heavy constitutional law n stuff, hard for the laymam to understand, but what it comes down to is the vibe of the thing. 🙂

    I stand by my call though.

  6. Dry spells in Sydney are normally ended by deluges. My gut feel is that by Christmas, Sydneysiders will be cursing the rain and wondering what happened to Summer. That probably won’t apply West of the Great Divide, however, nor in Vic, SA and WA, which had reasonable rain over Winter but which will probably dry out over Summer.

    Farmlands, parks and gardens around Sydney look dead and dry at the moment, and the bushland too is extremely dry. Until the rain eventually arrives, the fire danger in any hot spell will be intense. And if the rain doesn’t arrive, it will be a very bad Summer for fires.

  7. Kezza

    So I was wrong for the 35 years I wrote journalist as my occupation on my tax return when I was employed as a sub-editor?

  8. Kezza

    I never worked with a sub who had not started his career as a reporter and then specialised in the production side. We all called ourselves journalists.

  9. Rossmcg @ #214 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:59 pm

    Kezza

    I never worked with a sub who had not started his career as a reporter and then specialised in the production side. We all called ourselves journalists.

    Different strokes . . .

    ALL the subbies I knew were failed journos, or specialists in the trade.

    I was offered a subbie job once, and had never put pen to paper.

    Wanna call yourself a journo, feel free.

  10. Elon Musk is offering to rebuild the Puerto Rico electricity grid with solar and batteries, a mild improvement on Dotard lobbing paper towels into the mob.

    ‘“The Tesla team has [built solar grids] for many smaller islands around the world, but there is no scalability limit, so it can be done for Puerto Rico too,” Musk wrote on Twitter on Thursday.

    “Such a decision would be in the hands of the PR govt, PUC, any commercial stakeholders and, most importantly, the people of Puerto Rico.”

    Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rossello expressed interest in response, saying: “Let’s talk. Do you want to show the world the power and scalability of your Tesla Technologies? Puerto Rico could be that flagship project”.

    The tech titan said he hoped Tesla, which has already completed similar battery and solar power projects with the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative in Hawaii and in American Samoa, would be helpful to the people of Puerto Rico.’

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/elon-musk-puerto-rico-power-grid-rebuild-twitter-tesla-solar-power-hurricane-maria-a7986361.html

  11. Kezza

    WTF would I know?

    42 years a journalist, seven a reporter, 35 a sub-editor. Glad to know after all that time I was a failure.

    And we never called ourselves subbies. They are usually building contractors.

  12. Steve777 @ #186 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    Terrorism is very real, like bushfires, cyclones, East Coast lows and thunderstorms, all of which have killed many more Australians than terrorism.

    We do seek to stop bushfires wherever possible. We can’t stop East Coast lows, thunderstorms or cyclones.
    We can do our best to prevent any terrorist attacks succeeding.

  13. AR

    As for rationale, there is enough wriggle room in the law for the high court to make a decision in favour of Joyce and Co, allowing the high court to properly define the law regarding dual citienship without the need to plunge the parliament into chaos or change the constitution.

    Makes sense to me. Should have been a lawyer, piss easy stuff really.

  14. Kezza

    Me elite? No very humble. Almost anonymous.
    .
    Many of the complaints I see here and elsewhere about the state of the print media (poor spelling, grammar etc) can be attributed to the fact that hundreds of people like me have been made redundant in the last decade.

  15. Oakeshott Country @ #207 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:51 pm

    Subbies;
    My favourite headline;
    SHOCKING STRIP SHOW – POLICE COMMISSIONER TO ACT

    One of my favourites was “Heavy Breathing in the old Court House”.
    A bloke had been charged over a porno movie shown to raise funds for a football club.
    It was a quiet morning so the Magistrate insisted on seeing the ‘evidence’.

  16. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden 7h7 hours ago
    Obviously whole @HarveyWeinstein thing is a revolting power trip but I am just fascinated he thought any of these women were in his league

    Weinstein is not the first butt ugly bloke who thinks he’s all that when he’s not and lacks the self awareness to realise that he isn’t. And I doubt he’ll be the last.

  17. Bemused “We do seek to stop bushfires wherever possible. We can’t stop East Coast lows, thunderstorms or cyclones.
    We can do our best to prevent any terrorist attacks succeeding.”

    You are right, of course. We work to prevent bushfires, and to prevent terrorist attacks. We work to mitigate the impact of East Coast lows, thunderstorms and cyclones. And we deal with the effects of all of these – terrorists, bushfire and severe weather – when they happen.

    We don’t cultivate moral panic over bushfires or severe weather. We don’t use them as political wedges. We don’t sacrifice freedoms to identify and catch firebugs. We don’t paralyse ourselves with fear over these events. We don’t exploit them for political gain (although maybe the political right hasn’t found a way to do so yet).

    To the extent that we change our way of life and compromise freedoms and rights to deal with terrorists, the bad guys win. Plotting to kill people and commit acts of sabotage is illegal and always has been. So apply the law. Maybe the law has needed a bit of a tweak here and there to deal with current challenges. But I profoundly distrust what is being done in the name of ‘security’ by our current Government.

  18. Steve777 @ #227 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 8:25 pm

    Bemused “We do seek to stop bushfires wherever possible. We can’t stop East Coast lows, thunderstorms or cyclones.
    We can do our best to prevent any terrorist attacks succeeding.”

    You are right, of course. We work to prevent bushfires, and to prevent terrorist attacks. We work to mitigate the impact of East Coast lows, thunderstorms and cyclones. And we deal with the effects of all of these – terrorists, bushfire and severe weather – when they happen.

    We don’t cultivate moral panic over bushfires or severe weather. We don’t use them as political wedges. We don’t sacrifice freedoms to identify and catch firebugs. We don’t paralyse ourselves with fear over these events. We don’t exploit them for political gain (although maybe the political right hasn’t found a way to do so yet).

    To the extent that we change our way of life and compromise freedoms and rights to deal with terrorists, the bad guys win. Plotting to kill people and commit acts of sabotage is illegal and always has been. So apply the law. Maybe the law has needed a bit of a tweak here and there to deal with current challenges. But I profoundly distrust what is being done in the name of ‘security’ by our current Government.

    Hear, hear

  19. Caveat: I am not a lawyer!

    The wording of 44i is not very forgiving. I think it more likely than not that both the overseas born 3 (Roberts, Ludlam and Waters) and the overseas born parent 2 (Joyce and Nash) will be disqualified as if you have been born overseas or have a parent born overseas (and know you have a parent born overseas, which I do not believe is contested in any of the cases), it is almost certainly reasonable to check for the relevant nationalities, given the role of birth and immediate decent in most nationalities.

    Xenophon and Canavan present more complicated cases and are harder to predict. Will decent from arguably obscurely retained colonial overlord nationality cause ineligibility? I do not know. Will second generation nationality by decent, conferred retrospectively because of a ruling of unconstitutional discrimination, constitute, I do know. There is presumably a line somewhere where decent is not reasonable to check for, whether or not it is above or bellow grandparents is arguable but with every generation, the reasonableness decreases and if the line is not bellow grandparents, it is probably just above.

  20. I wonder what will happen when Mr Walters starts addressing on behalf of Mr Ludlam.

    Maybe:

    Kiefel CJ: Mr Walters. Your submission is that your client was not eligible to be a candidate at the 2016 election.

    Mr Walters: Yes.

    Kiefel CJ: In making that submission, you agree with the Solicitor-General?

    Mr Walters: Yes.

    Kiefel: Yes, thank you, Mr Walters. We do not to hear from you any further.

  21. Fantastic long piece on Donald Trump, and the American condition

    ‘Everyone with half a brain and a recent copy of the DSM (the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, used by shrinks everywhere) knew the diagnosis on Trump the instant he joined the race. Trump fits the clinical definition of a narcissistic personality so completely that it will be a shock if future psychiatrists don’t rename the disorder after him.

    Grandiosity, a tendency to exag
gerate achievements, a preoccupation with “fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty 
or ideal love,” a belief in one’s specialness (which can only be understood by other special people), a need for excessive admiration and a sense of entitlement – sound like anyone you know?

    Trump’s rapidly expanding list of things at which he’s either a supreme expert or the Earth’s best living practitioner would shame even great historical blowhards like Stalin or Mobutu Sese Seko.’

    ……

    This is the paradox of Trump. He is damaged, unwell and delusional, but at critical moments he’s able to approximate a functioning human being just long enough to survive. He is the worst-case scenario: embarrassing, mentally disorganized and completely inappropriate, but perhaps not all the way insane. Maybe crimes will soon be discovered and he’ll be impeached, or maybe he’ll run naked down Pennsylvania Avenue this fall, or nuke someone, and be declared unfit. Until then, he’s just the president we deserve, dragging our name down where it belongs. He is miserable, so are we, and we’re stuck with each other. Karma really is a bitch.

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-madness-of-donald-trump-removal-25th-amendment-w504149

  22. Tom/Shellbell

    The proposed ‘test’ of subjective knowledge or lack thereof on behalf of holders of dual nationality is a tough argument to prosecute. Anne Toomey said as much in her early comments on the case, can the HC construct a ‘test’ beyond the reasonable steps one from Sykes v Cleary?

    It seems much more ‘apt’, to use the fashionable jargon, to stick with the black letter and authority. Anyway, we find out next week.

    My bet is that all 7 are found ineligible to have stood, and been elected.

  23. Sprocket

    Musk certainly is clever to offer up solutions to people/places in tough places.

    DG

    I feel like the usefulness of the Friday dump is pretty much over given that the twitterati are always waiting. Also judt cause the Chief Economist says something, doesnt mean its the same thought across the government….

  24. Great breaking news delivered on Tom Switzer’s excellent radio program. His invited guest, a Rhode scholar no less, was happy to tell listeners that climate scientists now accept that (a) there has been NO increase in global warming recorded between 1996 and 2014; and (b) the hottest decade on record was in the 1930s. The underlying premise being that “climate catastrophe” is just a social lever with no scientific substance.

    Regrettably the listener was not informed of the scientific source of this exciting development and Tom made no effort to enquire. But being an ex-PM I think the invited guest is entitled to complete respect for his unequivocal view.

    I assume the interview is on podcast. It is gripping to listen to a climate denialist in full voice and wonder about the “reality” of his worldview. It is amazing tony Abbott was ever our PM. Breathtakingly worrying.

  25. Steve777,
    It’s very easy to sound as certain as you do @ 8.25. However, I would just like to direct you again to this paragraph in Katherine Murphy’s article:

    I also don’t take the cynical view that political leaders automatically turn up the volume on national security and law and order to try to boost their political stocks when times are tough.

    Perhaps some politicians really are that craven, that besieged, or that desperate, but in general terms I don’t think leaders are expanding the national security apparatus on some crude political calculus, to throw some raw meat at talkback and tabloids.

    I think our political leaders are deeply worried about the current risks and threats and the kinetic nature of national security challenges. No one wants a major attack on their political watch. No one wants to have to console grieving families, or face a barrage of questions about how agencies lacked powers to act at critical times.

    And so I ask you, are you really that concerned about ‘sacrificing freedoms’ (nice buzzwords but I like the freedom to live my life and I think that is important too), that you cannot see the point in these changes, which do just seem like ‘tweaks to the law’ to me?

    I don’t live my life in fear of terrorism either, I just like to be pragmatic and practical. As Katherine Murphy says, we might not like to admit it but things HAVE changed. Thus we need to attend to the solutions that will deal with those changes. Simple as that really. It has next to nothing to do with romantic notions of ‘sacrificing freedoms’ at all.

  26. Sprocket

    I don’t think the High Court will be too interested in the subjective/objective dichotomy which has been used most extensively by Roberts and the contradictor to Nash, Canavan and Xenophon. It brings into the constitution ideas from different and not necessarily compatible areas of the law.

    I think they will interpret s44(1) as applying to voluntary foreign citizens on the basis that neither here nor anywhere else in the world has it ever been the case that a foreign country could, without notice, act so as to deny the eligibility of citizen to stand for election in his or her own native parliament. Once notice is given, then absent steps to renounce, the local citizen volunteers to be a foreign citizen and thereby becomes disqualified if he or she does not renounce.

    Roberts and Ludlam out, others including Waters in and SHY to conduct a press conference in which she slams the HC for refusing to accept her former colleagues’ ineligibility.

    And Antonbruckner11 to be driving a Greyhound bus.

    And Justin Gleeson SC to be appointed to the HC by AG Dreyfus.

    And the Swans in 2018.

  27. I don’t normally mind Tom Switzer. He often has interesting guests and discusses interesting ideas.

    I caught the early part of his interview with Tony Abbott on a longish drive this afternoon. Abbott soon mentioned that global warming ceased in 1998, that ‘Climate Scientists’ accepted this (which ones? ‘Lord’ Monckton? He didn’t say) and that climate data was being ‘adjusted’, but that he knew what the ‘unadjusted’ data really said. Yeah, right, as if he would bother to to the research. Abbott’s bullshit wasn’t challenged. I switched over to ABC NewsRadio to listen to their Pacific Service.

    As far as climate goes, there’s plenty of information about, not just on conspiracy and contrarian blogs. The ‘Skeptical Science’ site debunks the myths. There are many others. It’s only necessary to check out the references: https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-intermediate.htm

    The fossil fuel industry are emulating the tobacco industry to keep their game going for as long as possible. People like Tony Abbott are ‘useful idiots’ to them (and useless idiots to the rest of us).

  28. Katherine Murphy, quoted by C@t @ 9:44PM:

    “but in general terms I don’t think leaders are expanding the national security apparatus on some crude political calculus…”

    Ms Murphy has more faith in our political leaders than I.

  29. I never cease to be amazed (I guess I should be) that Labor members will faithfully support whatever “anti-terrorism” positon Labor has decided to back, just to avoid the LNP saying Labor is soft on terrorism.

    It is positions like this that gives rise to far-left claims that there is no difference between the major parties.

  30. Abbott is a dinosaur still living in yesterdays world.The blokes just an oxygen thief.Someone on here said he knew someone who worked in parlo that says Abbott is a fuckwit.

  31. DB Cooper @ #244 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 9:59 pm

    I never cease to be amazed (I guess I should be) that Labor members will faithfully support whatever “anti-terrorism” positon Labor has decided to back, just to avoid the LNP saying Labor is soft on terrorism.

    It is positions like this that gives rise to far-left claims that there is no difference between the major parties.

    Or you could just be adopting the reflexive, ‘they are only supporting it because the Labor Party is supporting it’ position. : )

  32. DB Cooper @ #245 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 9:59 pm

    I never cease to be amazed (I guess I should be) that Labor members will faithfully support whatever “anti-terrorism” positon Labor has decided to back, just to avoid the LNP saying Labor is soft on terrorism.

    It is positions like this that gives rise to far-left claims that there is no difference between the major parties.

    I guess you must be a Green or something.

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