Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017

Newspoll’s breakdowns find the government sagging in Queensland, and regional areas more generally.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, in this case accumulating polling conducted from July through September. Its numbers will be added to BludgerTrack to this week, and the state relativities will become more like Newspoll’s direction as a result. Taking into account that BludgerTrack rates Labor a point higher overall, which the addition of the new numbers won’t change, the distinctions between the two are worth noting: Newspoll has Labor at 52% two-party in New South Wales, compared with BludgerTrack’s 53.0%; in Victoria, it’s 53% versus 54.3%; in Queensland, 54% versus 50.4%; in Western Australia, 53% versus 53.3%; in South Australia, 55% to 58.0%. The other interesting feature of Newspoll’s numbers is that the five capital cities are only recording a 1.1% swing to Labor, compared with 7.7% elsewhere. This has been exacerbated by the latest figures, which reduce Labor by a point in the cities while boosting them by two points elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017”

  1. guytaur,

    An overwhelming yes vote won’t change the behaviour of the bigots. They will try to get every bit of nasty into the legislation that they can.

  2. Steely

    Maybe. However higher turnout mirrors higher enrolment.

    We know that means the vote is going to be yes as you concede.

    Thats what I am basing my guess on.

    The only actual data we have. Until result is announced the lying idea is just a guess. To me a wild grasping of straws. We have decades of polls that have not had a lying factor

  3. Steelydan
    swamprat
    Though a high “yes” survey with Parliament voting “no” would be even more delicious.

    You drunk?
    —-

    Actually, i am, but even when sober i think the same.

    I would love the contempt for MPs resulting from a high “yes” survey and the baggage in Canberra voting no.

    Australians need to reform our polical system.

    It wont happen until people wake up.

  4. swamp…one for whom no defeat will be too ignominious…

    The reality is that Tony Abbott and the haters are gonna get slammed by the people of Australia. They are with you whether you like it or not.

  5. CC

    Yes. Howeverwhat changes is the way support others have for that view. If numbers are high for yes the ACL for one will be listened to a lot less.

  6. briefly
    swamp…one for whom no defeat will be too ignominious…
    ——

    Well i am a 7th generation Aus of Irish-Scottish background. Defeat is our “animus”. 😉

    That used to be an Australian attribute too.

    I suppose these days we have to be yanks, and “winners” always………. so mindless.. so untrue….so boring.

  7. swamprat

    What you say is absolute rubbish. You are obviously a “liberal”.

    13 countries have the death penalty for being gay. All happens to be muslim majority country.

    Some countries only publicly whip people for being gay. All happen to be muslim majority countries.

    Two things:

    1. Zambia, Uganda, Kenya, India and Burma are not Muslim majority countries, and yet they carry up to life sentences for being LGBT. Uganda even introduced a law for the death penalty for it back in 2009 but was struck down in August 2014 by Uganda’s Constitutional Court:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Uganda#Anti-Homosexuality_Act

    2. My point was not that ‘no majority Muslim country has horrifying anti-LGBT polices’ but that suggesting that because these countries are majority Muslim, therefore all Muslims support these horrifying laws as a monolithic entity; is a stupid idea.

    I mean, the LGBT people who live in majority Muslim countries that are subject to these terrible laws are most likely Muslims themselves.

  8. Guytaur

    I believe I have seen many elections where the shy Tory vote was not captured in the polls. However this is much more pronounced version of it this is the only time I have heard people say that they will vote yes and I am sure they will vote No.

  9. It seems that ‘swamprat’ would prefer that the SSM vote or any other action to sort the law so that LGBTI (whatever the sp!) are equally treated under Australian law is defeated so that some obscure political point that has a very convoluted supporting argument can be made.

    Am I understanding his going on’s correctly?

  10. Millenieal

    Where did i say: “all Muslims support these horrifying laws as a monolithic entity; is a stupid idea.”??

    and what does this horrifyimg justification mean?

    “I mean, the LGBT people who live in majority Muslim countries that are subject to these terrible laws are most likely Muslims themselves.”?

  11. guytaur,

    The ACL will continue to operate largely in the shadows as its always done, free of scrutiny and free to spread its poison. An overwhelming yes vote certainly won’t change the behaviour of the ACL.

  12. CTar,

    I think swamprat thinks that nothing good will happen unless we have a glorious revolution and any progress before said glorious revolution should be resisted because it will only delay the glorious revolution.

  13. swamprat
    Steelydan
    swamprat
    Though a high “yes” survey with Parliament voting “no” would be even more delicious.
    You drunk?
    —-
    Actually, i am, but even when sober i think the same.
    I would love the contempt for MPs resulting from a high “yes” survey and the baggage in Canberra voting no.
    Australians need to reform our polical system.
    It wont happen until people wake up.

    Are we talking about a revolution here comrade?

  14. Swamp

    Its a vote to the no politicians

    The survey is going to purge that homophobia.

    Its just like climate change. Once reality is accepted the change will be enormous.

    The power of the haters to influence public policy will be greatly diminished

  15. CTar:

    My own view is that swamprat is just trolling. Then again I’ve never really read his comments before so can’t form a judgement on whether this trolling is a recent SSM-oriented phenomenon or just routine swamprat behaviour.

  16. Steelydan

    “I have heard people say that they will vote yes and I am sure they will vote No.”
    —-

    It is NOT a vote. It is a typical LNP waste of public funds.

    It is designed to abuse Gays denigate and insult them. And traumatise gay children.

    It is designed to pretend the Tony Abbott and other inadequate Liberals have big heterosexiual breeding organs.

    IT, like the contemporary Liberal Party is an obscene ignorant and insulting wank.

    It is a an honest expression of what your Party has become.

  17. My view on the LNP and ALP supported Survey is:

    It is NOT a vote. It is a typical LNP waste of public funds.

    It is designed to abuse Gays denigate and insult them. And traumatise gay children.

    It is designed to pretend the Tony Abbott and other inadequate Liberals have big heterosexiual breeding organs.

    IT, like the contemporary Liberal Party is an obscene ignorant and insulting wank.

    It is a an honest expression of what your Party has become.

  18. Swamp

    The ALP opposed putting rights to a vote.

    The government came up with this glorified opinion poll to get around that.

    No way I see Labor supporting the Survey. I just see them supporting Yes.

  19. swamprat

    It is designed to pretend the Tony Abbott and other inadequate Liberals have big heterosexiual breeding organs.

    You are a nutter but a funny nutter.

    But what is the point if people stop reading your comments you are obviously intelligent and well educated why not use your powers for good or do you just want to see it all burn.

  20. Night all……..

    So other than semantics regarding survey, vote, etc.

    And the complaint that there will be ‘willing’ argument about SSM.

    And the Labor and Liberal parties are crap …

    I still have no idea what swamprat’s ‘revolution’ is about.

    The only certain thing I understand about swamprat is that he believes everything in Scotland is better.

    I give up!

  21. Millennial

    Where did i say: “all Muslims support these horrifying laws as a monolithic entity; is a stupid idea.”??

    I didn’t say you did.

    What you said was:

    “Oh Please. I was talking about repression of gays in muslim majority counties, given that those are the countries where muslims are likely to “massively control cultural practices”.

    I replied to it with:

    “It’s a silly idea nonetheless because it predisposes that ‘Muslims’ are a monolithic entity and that by simply being a majority in a country they can exert ‘cultural practices’.”

    Then you replied with:

    What you say is absolute rubbish. You are obviously a “liberal”.
    13 countries have the death penalty for being gay. All happens to be muslim majority country.
    Some countroies only publicly whip people for being gay. All happen to be muslim majority countries.

    That last reply is implying that predisposing that ‘Muslims’ are a monolithic entity isn’t a silly idea, and this is proven because these majority Muslim countries have these terrifying laws. What I’m trying to say is saying is this implication isn’t true or logically sound.

    If this implication does not represent your position, then I apologize.

    and what does this horrifyimg justification mean?

    “I mean, the LGBT people who live in majority Muslim countries that are subject to these terrible laws are most likely Muslims themselves.”?

    It’s not a justification. I am pointing out the existing of (small-l) liberal and LGBT Muslims within these countries to make the following point:

    Muslims are not a monolithic entity, and not all Muslims are virulently anti-gay; like how not all Catholics and Evangelical Protestants are virulently anti-gay.

  22. swamprat wants honest politicians so does he believe that Abbott is being untruthful about his opinion on SSM?

    I think I’ll be scrolling past any further ‘swamprat’ dominated PB sessions.

  23. From Dangerous Dan Tehan (an absolute Coalition ‘brains trust’)

    Cyber thieves hacked into the computer system of a national security contractor last year, the Federal Government will today reveal.

    The intruders had access to the IT network for a long period of time and stole large amounts of the defence supplier’s data.

    Assistant Minister for Cyber Security Dan Tehan said it was unclear who launched the incursion, but the Government was not ruling out a foreign government.

    It could have been a state actor, it could have been cyber criminals, and that’s why it was taken so seriously,” he said

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-10/defence-contractors-files-stolen-in-hacking:-security-report/9032290

    So he wouldn’t consider it serious if it was an amateur ‘hacker’ who had then posted the stolen data/information on the internet for anyone to see?

  24. UK Polling (Story from 2 days ago):

    Theresa May’s crisis has deepened today with a new poll showing Labour surging ahead of the Conservatives, while the public now also has a clear preference for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.

    The exclusive survey for The Independent by BMG Research now has Labour five points ahead of the Tories, who are still reeling from a coup launched by ex-ministers to overthrow Ms May.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-tories-poll-latest-lead-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-pm-general-election-five-points-bmg-a7988166.html

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin provides some perspective on the GST sharing issue.

    Greg Jericho sums it up by saying all Morrison has to do is to sell a GST cut to every state bar one! As usual it’s full of good data.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/oct/10/scott-morrisons-next-trick-selling-a-gst-revenue-cut-to-every-state-bar-one
    Paul Bongiorno writes “The Turnbull government is holding its collective breath as its majority in the Parliament is determined by the High Court this week. But that’s just one of the dangerous issues facing the Coalition before the end of the year.” The political time bomb ticks closer for Turnbull he says.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/10/09/political-time-bomb-malcolm-turnbull/
    Peter Hartcher examines the motives behind the likely appointment of Admiral Harry Harris as US Ambassador to Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-china-hawk-most-likely-to-be-trumps-man-in-australia-20171009-gyx1ei.html
    Gladys Berejiklian’s government has passed the least bills of any new NSW premiers in three decades, a new analysis of records shows. She’s going to have to have to lift her game one would think.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/gladys-berejiklian-so-far-slimmest-legislative-record-of-any-rookie-premier-in-decades-20171006-gyw57l.html
    George Williams has a final look at the government’s submission to the High Court on the citizenship issue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-brandis-submission-to-high-court-in-mp-citizenship-case-is-a-stretch-20171008-gywv45.html
    The man behind Australia’s biggest ever home loan swindle has been sentenced to five years in prison for running the scheme that cooked up $170 million in fraudulent loan applications. Animal!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/jail-time-for-man-behind-australias-biggest-home-loan-swindle-20171009-gyx35s.html
    George Christenson has gone troppo over the 4 Corners Adani program.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/george-christensen-is-second-mp-to-use-taxpayer-funds-to-attack-abc-20171009-gyx9u7.html
    Adam Gartrell has issued a guide to the HC hearing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-citizenship-seven-get-their-day-in-court-your-guide-to-the-hearings-20171009-gyx1h4.html
    A leading advocate for children with disabilities has accused the NSW government of failing to properly investigate allegations of child abuse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/government-investigates-246-reports-of-abuse-of-disabled-children-in-nsw-schools-20171009-gyxatt.html

  26. Section 2 . . .

    Here’s a good analysis of the current flu season.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/how-the-flu-kills-what-happens-when-a-person-dies-with-influenza-20171005-gyv9r1.html
    The NSW government will move to weaken laws protecting Sydney’s water catchment to circumvent a court’s ruling that threatened fuel supplies to the state’s newest coal-fired power station. Nice!
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/nsw-bids-to-skirt-courts-coal-mine-ruling-by-weakening-laws-protecting-sydneys-water-20171008-gywt0o.html
    A day in the life of an abortion nurse. well worth reading for the sake of perspective.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/a-day-in-the-life-of-an-abortion-nurse-20170922-gyn9f5.html
    In a speech to the International Bar Association George Brandis has delivered a sharp rebuke to Dutton, and reminded government ministers of the need to respect the rule of law and authority of the courts. He delivered a full-throated defence of the rule of law and the legal profession. George is an enigma at times.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-brandis-slaps-down-peter-dutton-over-unaustralian-lawyers-attack-20171008-gywvcv.html
    Jenna Price tells us what Australia should learn from the Harvey Weinstein sexual harassment case.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sexual-harassment-what-australia-should-learn-from-harvey-weinstein-20171008-gywtky.html
    Elizabeth Knight discusses the class action suit on the CBA and who’s in the firing line. The bank has said it will vigorously defend the case.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/whos-who-in-firing-line-in-cba-class-action-20171009-gyx69t.html
    On energy policy Laura Tingle wonders if this government knows what it’s doing. Google.
    /news/vale-the-plan-all-await-the-cunning-plan-20171009-gyx6fv
    Alan Finkel has made a last-ditch plea to save the proposed clean energy target, even as the Turnbull government signalled it will reject the proposal by the end of the year. The way things are going he’ll get the boot!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/chief-scientist-alan-finkel-makes-last-ditch-plea-for-clean-energy-target-20171008-gyww1o.html
    Nicole Hasham sums up Finkel’s position with “The patient’s vital signs are not good. Power prices are high, and emissions haemorrhaging. Reliability and security of supply are in doubt. We need a treatment plan, and fast.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/expert-views-make-way-for-political-expediency-in-climate-debate-20171009-gyx1ec.html
    Phil Coorey says that Australia risks more energy policy paralysis and another election fought on climate change after the government signalled it was stepping away from a clean energy target, setting the scene for a new fight with Labor. It will be a Climate War election. Google.
    /news/energy-chiefs-urge-the-government-to-stick-with-the-clean-energy-target-20171008-gywsvu

  27. Section 3 . . .

    Abbott has doubled down on his scepticism of climate change science, reigniting a decade-old debate in a major speech in London after the Turnbull government moved yesterday to rule out proceeding with a clean ¬energy target proposed by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel. In years to come the history books will not put Abbott in a good light. Google.
    /national-affairs/climate/tony-abbott-calls-for-climate-pushback-as-cet-goes-cold/news-story/6568708f050e62c8d33b2190b7e7fbd7
    How hate seeps in and damages us all. The Hanson effect.
    https://theconversation.com/the-hanson-effect-how-hate-seeps-in-and-damages-us-all-85314
    The Turnbull Government, with the eager support of the state premiers, is marching us towards becoming a police state, writes Dr Binoy Kampmark.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/gaoling-children-australias-latest-anti-terrorist-solution,10802
    John Pilger writes about the rise of “new politics” in Great Britain.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/10/10/the-rise-of-britains-new-politics/
    Domino’s Pizza says it has returned $5.4 million in underpaid wages and superannuation to its employees over the past four years under a national audit of its stores that is due to wrap up in December.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/dominos-delivers-54m-to-underpaid-staff-20171009-gyxen8.html
    Religious institutions and free-speech advocates have condemned a bid by the Northern Territory government to “modernise” anti-discrimination laws, describing proposed changes as a significant threat to religious freedom. The Australian continues its tub thumping. Google.
    /news/nation/churches-schools-fear-antidiscrimination-changes/news-story/420a5cc35ad0cc2fcba0d4902120a25d
    The Age has asked Dr Brian Owler what how the proposed Victorian assisted dying legislation would treat six hypothetical cases. The dementia example is a difficult one.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/would-these-people-get-help-to-die-under-victorias-proposed-euthanasia-laws-20171007-gywcrb.html
    This article goes to the dynamics of change when it comes to population growth and living in Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-sydney-cant-pull-up-the-drawbridge-20171009-gyx1no.html
    The SMH editorial says that Sydney isn’t full, it just feels that way.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/sydney-full-no–it-just-feels-that-way-20171009-gyx91f.html
    Victorian independent schools have been accused of “gaming the system” to almost double their federal funding for students with a disability. This really peeves me off!
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/private-schools-accused-of-gaming-the-system-to-double-disability-funding-20171009-gyxar2.html
    Poor Clive Palmer cops another adverse court decision. Google.
    /news/nation/clive-palmer-loses-court-fight-ordered-to-pay-us176m/news-story/cc1292d58de4c70dec118368f9c8a36b
    According to John Passant Nick Xenophon is a self-interested show pony, who may win votes in South Australia but will never fix anything.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-froth-and-bubble-that-is-nick-xenophon,10801


  28. Greg Jericho sums it up by saying all Morrison has to do is to sell a GST cut to every state bar one! As usual it’s full of good data.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/oct/10/scott-morrisons-next-trick-selling-a-gst-revenue-cut-to-every-state-bar-one

    The sad thing is the state being saved had a Liberal government that squandered the mining boom.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/taxpayers-left-with-big-bill-as-power-plant-closes-ng-b88464603z

    And the amazing thing is turnbull wants to follow.

  29. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Brilliant work from David Rowe on the energy summit.

    Matt Golding and some CET rebranding.

    Golding looks at how Morrison might manage the GST carve up,

    David Pope says it all with this effort.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Cathy Wilcox and THAT fence.

    Peter Broelman has Trump using the ultimate weapon.

    Paul Zanetti and Trump’s negotiation style.

    Nice work from Jon Kudelka on Xenophon’s citizenship and parliamentary footprint.

    Alan Moir and the plight of the ABC.

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