Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017

Newspoll’s breakdowns find the government sagging in Queensland, and regional areas more generally.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, in this case accumulating polling conducted from July through September. Its numbers will be added to BludgerTrack to this week, and the state relativities will become more like Newspoll’s direction as a result. Taking into account that BludgerTrack rates Labor a point higher overall, which the addition of the new numbers won’t change, the distinctions between the two are worth noting: Newspoll has Labor at 52% two-party in New South Wales, compared with BludgerTrack’s 53.0%; in Victoria, it’s 53% versus 54.3%; in Queensland, 54% versus 50.4%; in Western Australia, 53% versus 53.3%; in South Australia, 55% to 58.0%. The other interesting feature of Newspoll’s numbers is that the five capital cities are only recording a 1.1% swing to Labor, compared with 7.7% elsewhere. This has been exacerbated by the latest figures, which reduce Labor by a point in the cities while boosting them by two points elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017”

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  1. I should say MOST ideologies are false because they are based on false anthopologies. Islam is one of them, as is christianity and judaism.

  2. swamprat

    Oh please…

    I was talking about repression of gays in muslim majority counties, given that those are the countries where muslims are likely to “massively control cultural practices”.

    It’s a silly idea nonetheless because it predisposes that ‘Muslims’ are a monolithic entity and that by simply being a majority in a country they can exert ‘cultural practices’.

    It’s like saying that Australia is a majority Christian nation, therefore Christians are likely to massively control cultural practices.

  3. swamprat
    briefly

    “You should meet Anne Aly. She is anything but homophobic.”
    ——

    I am not attacking muslims but i am entitled to oppose islam as much as liberals oppose christianity. They are ideologies.

    All ideologies are false because their anthropology is false.

    Of course you are free to oppose Islam. No-one here has disputed that. Instead of attacking Muslims you direct your hostility against your other figments…mainly against imaginary “liberals”, who are simply proxies, it seems.

  4. Truffles, too busy to congratulate the Australians who were involved in winning the Nobel prize but hey ho he had time today to ring some peasant who is the first Australian play in the NHL
    October 9, 2017 11:13am
    Prime Minister Malcolm Tribute, Australian sporting greatest pays tribute to NHL pioneer Nathan Walker
    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nhl/prime-minister-malcolm-tribute-australian-sporting-greatest-pays-tribute-to-nhl-pioneer-nathan-walker/news-story/baaa86f3703b03e51baa7a0802fce42d

  5. Millenial

    “It’s a silly idea nonetheless because it predisposes that ‘Muslims’ are a monolithic entity and that by simply being a majority in a country they can exert ‘cultural practices’.”.

    —–

    What you say is absolute rubbish. You are obviously a “liberal”.

    13 countries have the death penalty for being gay. All happens to be muslim majority country.

    Some countroies only publicly whip people for being gay. All happen to be muslim majority countries.

  6. Islamic countries and majority muslim countries that enshrine discrimination into law absolutely need to be called out. I’m not sure what this has to do with Swamprat’s railing against Labor though. Then again it wasn’t too long ago he accused me of homophobia for voting Yes in the postal survey, so perhaps we can simply file this away under N for Nothing to see here.

  7. poroti @ #611 Monday, October 9th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    Truffles, too busy to congratulate the Australians who were involved in winning the Nobel prize but hey ho he had time today to ring some peasant who is the first Australian play in the NHL
    October 9, 2017 11:13am
    Prime Minister Malcolm Tribute, Australian sporting greatest pays tribute to NHL pioneer Nathan Walker
    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nhl/prime-minister-malcolm-tribute-australian-sporting-greatest-pays-tribute-to-nhl-pioneer-nathan-walker/news-story/baaa86f3703b03e51baa7a0802fce42d

    It’s a good thing that sport and politics don’t mix.

  8. liberals are hardly proxies.

    liberals are real and powerful and mostly in control, at present.

    liberals have taken over the ALP and gutted it to the weak capitalist neo-liberal supporting party that it has become.

    liberals control a lot of the media and cultural discussion.

    liberals are strong in both the Greens and Liberal Parties.

    The absurd pe-occupation with stupid Trump, as for example on this site, is just the expression of the liberals upset at the damage that a capitalist clown like Trump will do to their hip capitalist persona.

    Trump is just the “wrong” sort of capitalist for the neo-liberal globalised plan.

  9. briefly

    “Of course you are free to oppose Islam. No-one here has disputed that. Instead of attacking Muslims”.

    ——-

    Where i have attacked “muslims”?

  10. I understand that this is only anecdotal but nearly everyone that I know that is voting No is either religious (Christian) or comes from a religious background not necessarily catholic but definitely religion plays a big part in their decision and the only ones that are active in pushing the No campaign are religious. Conservatives that are not religious are the what ever floats ya boat type which are more unlikely not to vote and may need a little nudge to vote, like me.

    There is a couple that I suspect may vote No that are not religious, with young school age children. The what will they teach our children in school if the yes vote gets up argument is making them mull voting No over. Whatever virtues the Safe schools program may have it’s timing was not good. The yes vote will get up but the margin will be lower than the polls predict.

  11. [Dan Gulberry
    Canavan supports a traditional family.

    You know, one where his mum fills out citizenship applications on his behalf.]

    Maybe that’s a good indication of his intellectual brilliance.

    Something he shares with Malcolm Roberts.

  12. I think Matt Canavan killed his political career tonight. Doubling down on the precious petal thing over suicide.

    Gordon fantastic young man asking the question.

  13. zoomster

    “swamprat provides a nice example of why it’s pointless to argue against emotion.”
    —-

    pointing out the ALP is and has always been homophobic and many ALP MPs voted against ME during the Gillard regime is “emotion”.

    Guilty!!!!!!!

  14. swamp…the basic point is that those outrageous laws need to be changed. This is a political challenge. To succeed in political contests, one needs allies and supporters and they need to be brought together. So the task is to build alliances. Your opponents will attack you and your allies…so to add your own attacks on allies or potential allies, is to assist those who must be defeated.

    But fire away….it’s your gig.

  15. Dan G, poroti:

    Great front page! And about frickin time the msm started putting it out there that the coalition is the party of anti-science and by token, anti-reality.

  16. swamprat
    briefly

    “Of course you are free to oppose Islam. No-one here has disputed that. Instead of attacking Muslims”.

    ——-

    Where i have attacked “muslims”?

    Have you been taking lessons from P1?

  17. swamprat
    liberals are hardly proxies.

    Looking on, it seems to me that in your cosmology/ontology, liberals=demons. Not a lot of nuance there.

  18. Steelydan

    “Whatever virtues the Safe schools program may have it’s timing was not good.”
    ——

    What has happened to “my:” country?

    Why has trying to educate children not to be cruel to other children seen as something who’s timing “is not good”?

    Why have you trores adopted such cruel harsh attitudes to your fellow Australians?

    Where did this come from?

  19. briefly

    liberals= demons
    ——–

    That is a good point.

    I may sound harsh and a mite extreme.

    But thinking about it more calmly…… Yes, i think “liberals” are the main enemy to the struggle for equality.

  20. guytaur:

    When Abbott was LOTO the media was too caught up in his stunts and crowing about how effective a leader he was. Not a great moment for Australia’s media.

  21. Steely

    On Insiders quoting numerous polls not just one. The consensus was that the Yes vote is going to be a higher number than Ireland.

    You have just described why it won’t be 100%

  22. swamprat,
    The ALP has more responsibility for gay legal repression than any church.

    Sigh. Being wilfully obtuse is no defence. Of course, due to the separation of Church and State, a political party has had historical oversight of any and all ‘gay legal repression’!

    You make it sound like it was a revelation. It is not, it is just fact.

    However, what you won’t acknowledge, as if political parties are frozen in aspic, is that political parties change. They realise the error of their previous actions and policies, and they vote at their conferences to change them.

    Anyway, that’s the last response to you tonight. You deserve no more.

  23. swamprat
    briefly

    liberals= demons
    ——–

    That is a good point.

    I may sound harsh and a mite extreme.

    But thinking about it more calmly…… Yes, i think “liberals” are the main enemy to the struggle for equality.

    The real enemies are the haters, their financiers and stooges and the reactionary Tories, wherever they are to be found

  24. My point then there is more people outright lying about supporting same sex marriage than many think, blunt enough for you.

  25. Altough i have not “surveyed”, as a matter of principle, i have such contempt for our politicians i am hoping for a low turn out and a tiny “No” lead.

    Why? because i want our political parties held in greater contempt.

    I want the Australian people to wake up to what self indulgent idiots they vote for like sheep.

    i want the political class in Australia held up to global ridicule.

    It seems i may be disappointed.

    Though a high “yes” survey with Parliament voting “no” would be even more delicious.

  26. guytaur
    John Boy.

    Twitter timeline of @bencubby

    Cheers but i don’t do twitter, other than click the links posted here… any chance?

  27. guytaur:

    I thought Insiders made the Irish comparison with the voter turn out rather than the Yes/No vote, ie voter turnout for a voluntary non-binding postal survey in Oz is higher than a constitutional referendum in Ireland.

  28. Swamp

    Its darkest before the dawn. This unnecessay survey is purging homophobia as part of our official public policy. The way its going I think there are going to be fewer exemptions allowing discrimination than I feared.

    So in November when we get the result the rejection of bigotry should be clear.

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