Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017

Newspoll’s breakdowns find the government sagging in Queensland, and regional areas more generally.

The Australian has published the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, in this case accumulating polling conducted from July through September. Its numbers will be added to BludgerTrack to this week, and the state relativities will become more like Newspoll’s direction as a result. Taking into account that BludgerTrack rates Labor a point higher overall, which the addition of the new numbers won’t change, the distinctions between the two are worth noting: Newspoll has Labor at 52% two-party in New South Wales, compared with BludgerTrack’s 53.0%; in Victoria, it’s 53% versus 54.3%; in Queensland, 54% versus 50.4%; in Western Australia, 53% versus 53.3%; in South Australia, 55% to 58.0%. The other interesting feature of Newspoll’s numbers is that the five capital cities are only recording a 1.1% swing to Labor, compared with 7.7% elsewhere. This has been exacerbated by the latest figures, which reduce Labor by a point in the cities while boosting them by two points elsewhere.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates: July-September 2017”

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  1. Trump Just Opened His Mouth And Killed The Republican Tax Cuts For The Rich

    Trump went after retiring Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee with a personal attack that may have killed the Republican plan to cut taxes.

    Trump went after retiring Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee with a personal attack that may have killed the Republican plan to cut taxes.

    The President tweeted about a member of his own party:

    Donald J. Trump
    ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump

    Senator Bob Corker “begged” me to endorse him for re-election in Tennessee. I said “NO” and he dropped out (said he could not win without…

    Trump has placed his own ego ahead of his political goals, and it could cost him dearly. With Rand Paul, Corker, and Susan Collins as potential no votes with more Senate Republicans already wavering, tax cuts for the wealthy could be dead.

    The President had to open his mouth, and as a consequence, he may end 2017 with zero major legislative accomplishments

  2. GOP Sen. Bob Corker Obliterates Trump By Calling The White House An Adult Daycare Center

    Trump tried to attack Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) on Sunday morning, but Corker fired back with nothing less than a total destruction of his own party’s president.

    Trump tried to attack Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) on Sunday morning, but Corker fired back with nothing less than a total destruction of his own party’s president.

    In response to Trump’s lies and insults, Corker tweeted:

    Senator Bob Corker
    ✔ ‎@SenBobCorker

    It’s a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.

    The moral of the story is don’t F with Bob Corker. He is retiring and speaking his mind.

    Corker wiped the floor with Trump. The President tried to disrespect a United States Senator, and he got his head handed to him. If Corker’s response matches the tone of the feeling for the President among his Republican colleagues, the majority in Congress has no respect for their president. As the old saying goes, respect is something that has to be earned.

  3. Trump praises Las Vegas gunman as ‘probably smart’ — but bashes San Juan mayor as ‘not very capable’

    President Donald Trump gave a lengthy interview to Mike Huckabee, where he slammed San Juan’s mayor and praised the Las Vegas gunman’s intelligence.

    “We have the Mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico, who didn’t attend meetings, who didn’t work with FEMA, who really did not do a very good job — in fact, did a very poor job,” Trump said. “And she was the lone voice that we saw — and of course that’s the only voice the media wanted to talk to, and she’s running for governor, big surprise.”

    On the other hand, the president praised the response by Las Vegas police to the mass shooting that left 58 people dead and hundreds more wounded — and he was apparently impressed by the gunman, as well.

    “This was a sick person, but probably smart,” Trump said

  4. Overnight I read DTT’s assessment of Trump and found it hard to believe. He is, apparently, very wise and is able to encapsulate his wisdom in a few words, saying what others are afraid to, cutting through.

    What a shame he isn’t appreciated by everyone.

  5. Internet pummels Pence’s ‘preplanned stunt’ to leave NFL game after anthem protest

    Vice President Mike Pence left Sunday’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers after some of the players knelt in silent protest during the National Anthem

    Other Twitter users quickly pounded on the vice president as a hypocrite and accused him of manufacturing a publicity stunt.

  6. President Donald Trump confirmed that he ordered Vice President Mike Pence to leave Sunday’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers if any players protested during the National Anthem.

    Some of them did, so the vice president walked out.

    Vice President Pence
    ✔ ‎@VP

    Replying to @VP

    While everyone is entitled to their own opinions, I don’t think it’s too much to ask NFL players to respect the Flag and our National Anthem

    Social media users weren’t fooled, and called out Pence for attending the game at taxpayer expense for what appeared to be a political stunt.

    The president confirmed their suspicions a short time later in his own tweet.

    Donald J. Trump
    ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump

    I asked @VP Pence to leave stadium if any players kneeled, disrespecting our country. I am proud of him and @SecondLady Karen.

  7. Northcote.

    Ms Chipp will face Labor candidate Clare Burns and the Greens’ Lidia Thorpe in what promises to be a hard-fought contest.

    During the campaign Ms Chipp will take approved leave as a lawyer with Victoria Legal Aid, having worked with vulnerable children charged with criminal offences.

    She worked on a restorative justice project involving youths who ran amok after the Moomba parade last year, before a stint on secondment at Victoria Police working on youth crime and new diversion programs.

    Ms Chipp said her experience in youth justice and resolving conflict would be valuable as an MP.

    Her father’s influence has also been powerful, having grown up with religion, politics, the environment and Indigenous issues as common dinner table discussion topics.

  8. Good Morning Bludgers : )

    Re dtt: I didn’t know you could buy Trump Kool Aid on the Internet and Border Force wouldn’t stop it coming into Brisbane either! ; )

  9. BUSTED: Pence made press wait in van so he could leave game early for taxpayer-funded stunt, NBC reports

    Vice President Mike Pence left the Indianapolis Colts NFL game early on Sunday after players kneeled during the national anthem as a protest against systemic racism — but many people suspect the White House of orchestrating the stunt at the expense of taxpayers.

    In a tweet on Sunday, NBC’s Peter Alexander reported that Pence’s press pool was ordered to wait outside the game because the vice president had planned to leave early.

    Alexander also pointed out that Pence may have offended many Americans by using taxpayer money for a “political stunt.”

    “The president and the vice president had come up with a way that they believe is the best way to communicate this stand,” the NBC reporter remarked. “But it’s obviously a divisive issue, with many people insisting these players deserve their right to free expression.”

  10. From the conversations yesterday about Pence, from what I have read about him, if you have seen “The Handmaids Tale”, he would fit in perfectly as a commander.

  11. These figures gel with my gut feeling of what’s happening. At last year’s election, the further a city dweller lived from the city centre, the more their seat swung to Labor. These figures suggest that the regions will be the big swingers next time.

    This suggests that Labor will pick up seats in NSW and Queensland, less so in Victiria and SA. And while WA is suggesting it will swing big, I’ll believe that when I see it.

  12. Imagine you make a tap-and-go payment using a debit card (let’s leave credit cards for another day).

    Much of the time, waving the card next to a terminal, instead of inserting it, selecting Cheque or Savings and entering your PIN, is a no-brainer. It often won’t cost you any more, and you’ve saved a few seconds. But that’s only what you see as the customer.

    In reality, choosing to tap-and-go instead of “dip and PIN” does result in different costs for the retailers, because it means the payment goes through a different set of pipes – the credit card networks owned by Visa or MasterCard.

    According to RBA estimates, the merchant will pay an average of about 0.55 per cent of the transaction’s value in a “merchant service fee” to their bank when the payment goes through the credit card network. But if it goes through the eftpos (CHQ or SAV) system, this drops to 0.15 per cent.

    That may not sound like a big difference – it’s an extra 40¢ on a $100 transaction. But across the $270 billion in debit card payments a year in the economy, it adds up to hundreds of millions of dollars in extra fees going to banks and the international card giants.

    In other words, all that tapping of debit cards is probably costing merchants hundreds of millions a year more than if people were doing it the old-fashioned way.

    A recent Reserve Bank submission says banks are “considering” giving retailers the option of sending their contactless payments through the eftpos network. Such a move would “contribute to a more competitive and efficient payment system”, the RBA said.

    But the simple fact is the banks have known about this issue for years and haven’t done much about it yet, and that’s probably because they make more money from the current situation.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I just saw Tim Fischer interviewed on CNN on guns. He did us proud.

    Here’s David Crowe’s take on how the Coalition is losing a lot of ground in the regions. No pay wall for this one.
    David Uren writes that the retreat in retail sales is challenging Reserve Bank and Treasury forecasts that consumer spending will power a return to 3 per cent plus growth over the next year. Google.
    An in a typically detailed contribution Greg Jericho says “Right now there is a growing disconnect between how business and consumers view the economy. It is a gap that will continue to widen as measures of the economy suggest things are on the improve, but wages continue to grow at record low rates. And it is a gap which will have a significant impact on how voters judge the government’s economic achievements at the next election.”
    In an open letter many eminent Australians say Parliament, not ministers, should decide Australia’s response to a Korean war.
    Phil Coorey tells us that the Turnbull government is rethinking the need to adopt a clean energy target, believing the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy means there may no longer be a requirement for subsidies. Google.
    Urban Wronski says that Turnbull’s new security suite puts us all at risk.
    Politicians who were “oblivious” to their dual citizenship and can “honestly swear” this was the case should remain in Parliament, Attorney-General George Brandis has argued. Soapy goes for the Dennis Denuto “It’s the vibe” argument.
    Jess Irvine writes that we should be alert rather than alarmed at the level of household debt.
    More than two-thirds of people believe Sydney is full and property development should be pushed to the fringes, new polling shows, amid simmering tensions within communities and the Berejiklian government over the issue.
    Adam Creighton on how we can look forward to more gouging with the NBN. It’s barely begun he says. Google.

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Trump has gone (more) troppo as he feels the heat of ridicule.
    Labor has called for the Turnbull government to admit defeat on its controversial tightening of Australian citizenship laws, demanding the immigration department process applicants under the existing protocols.
    Businesses are maintaining pressure on the federal government to adopt the clean energy target recommended in the Finkel Review after news last week that China planned to introduce an emissions-trading scheme highlighted gathering momentum on climate change policy. Google.
    Meanwhile Bill Shorten has called for significant changes to the rules governing the national electricity market, saying they are biased in favour of big energy generators to the detriment of households.
    Will Theresa give Boris the boot?
    But can she save herself?
    In the wake of last week’s slaughter, it’s time to damn America as a rogue state when it comes to arms. Why do we still treat the US as a civilised state?
    The NRA is digging in. Surprised?
    The hidden cost of the “tap and go” boom.
    Obama’s senior advisor Valerie Jarrett got a taste of just how powerful America’s gun lobby was after the December 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newton, Connecticut.

  15. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Jaguar Land Rover is now caught up in the Takata airbag mess.
    We are still not doing enough about mental health.
    Chief executives of ANZ and Westpac will front up this week for the twice-yearly parliamentary grilling in Canberra, before the Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank’s top brass have their turn later this month. This will be interesting!
    The face of Test cricket could be altered drastically this week with ICC member nations on the verge of giving the green light to a new league structure that would culminate in a World Test Championship.
    Surgeons who resent moves to address endemic bullying and harassment and deny the profession has a problem are among more than 1000 specialists yet to complete compulsory training designed to quash the toxic culture. How precious!

    Matt Golding in the Oval Office.

    Peter Broelman sends Xenophon back to SA.

    Matt Golding has a good dig at Hanson.

    And he looks at the new tenancy rules in NSW.

    David Rowe’s Croweater.

    Pat Campbell and commerce after the Las Vegas shooting.

  16. Coorey in the AFR. Will someone please kick these bums out.

    The Turnbull government is rethinking the need to adopt a clean energy target, believing the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy means there may no longer be a requirement for subsidies.

    In the keynote address to The Australian Financial Review National Energy Summit, federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg will highlight the falling costs of wind and solar energy, including battery storage capacity, as he stresses emissions reduction cannot come at the expense of reliability and affordability.

    “It is challenging but possible to simultaneously put downward pressure on prices and enhance the reliability of the system, while meeting our international emissions reductions targets,” he will say at the start of the two-day summit that begins on Monday.

    The speech will signal a possible shift away from plans to design and implement a CET from 2020 onwards, in the belief emissions reduction can be achieved without such a scheme.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  17. Good Morning

    There has been rain in Sydney. The birds are shining and the clouds are singing 😆

    Seriously I know its been said but the sooner this mob is gone the better. We need to get away from the extremist right policies of the LNP.

    I am pleased to see that the plan by Turnbull to use the ME survey is working on that front. At least the damage caused is having a good political effect in the LNP party room

    So now we see a renewed push on the RET. The excuse of no subsidies is a pointer to the Nationals agreement Turnbull made of course. However at least Barnyard appears to be on the back foot in promoting coal.

  18. astroduff: @del_irani @LaTrioli @BreakfastNews On @BreakfastNews I got to share this beautiful image of the furthest active comet ever spotted- a city sized snowball 2.4bn km away..!

    astroduff: @del_irani @LaTrioli @BreakfastNews We are seeing frozen material directly sublimate into gas so far out the coma hasn’t been sculpted by the Sun into the iconic comet tail yet

  19. ‘According to RBA estimates, the merchant will pay an average of about 0.55 per cent of the transaction’s value in a “merchant service fee” to their bank when the payment goes through the credit card network. But if it goes through the eftpos (CHQ or SAV) system, this drops to 0.15 per cent.’

    Right. So nothing to do with ‘tap and go’ but with using EFTPOS not credit.

    I ‘tap and go’ and the money comes out of my VISA account.

    Also the wording is confusing: if the merchant pays 0.55 using the credit card network but 0.15 using EFTPOS, aren’t they better off with EFTPOS?

  20. Zoomster

    Thats the point. Of course it shows the need for government regulation on competition.

    EftPos should be able to compete fairly with against credit card companies on the tap and go platform. Merchants should have the choice which platform to use. That combined with the ACCC of not charging consumers for fees would ensure the best solution is used.

    Another example of why regulation is good and a free for all market becomes dominated by big business gouging customes be that at the merchant level or the consumer level.

  21. Oh, I thought Liberal Women were so spectacularly spectacular that they got their positions on merit? Not via quotas like the lamo Labor Party has to use? : )

  22. Swamprat

    This point is what needs to be pointed out repeatedly.

    Socialism is not Marxism or Communism. A simple fact that the right keeps lying about. Its just like the right taking about climate change. Deny the reality to set up your narrative so your fantasy is accepted.

    More significantly, contemporary socialism repudiates the vaguely humanised capitalism marketed as the third way. It’s a break with those social democrats and liberals who embraced, or capitulated to, the politics of austerity in the wake of the GFC, such as the New Labour of Blair and Brown, PASOK in Greece and the Dutch Labour party, and, most importantly of all, the Clinton Democrats in the United States
    On the other hand, there’s no detectable enthusiasm for a centrally planned economy like that of the former Soviet Union or Mao’s China. Communism is a distant and discredited memory, even for those old enough to recall the days when it seemed like a possible alternative.

  23. lizzie

    You should have put faint hearts in quotes.

    I don’t think any of us that have been raising the dangers inherent in the loss of privacy by compulsory government data collection into a centralised data base are fain hearts.

  24. Swamprat

    I was agreeing of course. I assumed you do not confuse the two.

    However most in the community do due to that narrative peddled by the right.

    Sorry for any confusion.

  25. Lizzie

    I camnot sure if you actually read what I wrote or only the offensive summaries of narks like Fred and Cat, but at no point did I call him wise.

    Indeed I indicated his lack of learning was his advantage in that his mind was uncluttered with learning.

    I indicated that he like most populists and children had the capacity to state the obvious that others were too embarrassed or scared to say. This does not imply wisdom. Quite the reverse.

    I indicated that like spiv business men and con men he is flexible and has an eye for the main chance and can negotiate. You could call it rat cunning if you wish.

    Now again this should be bloody obvious given the guy won. Clearly he did get his messaging right and managed to say stuff that people in the rust belt and flyover states wanted to hear.

    Now his populist message cut through because he lucked out in his timing or perhaps it is more accurate to say that the mainstream parties failed to adapt to a changing world and allowed a simple mined populist like Trump to cur through.

    Here in simple form were Trump’s messages. They illustrate my point:

    1. “US economy is going backwards and we need to boost manufacturing and stop those meany Chinese (and Mexicans) from stealing out manufacturing jobs.”

    Now Trump put it in simple language but the message is one that most Australian Unions would agree with. Bernie Sanders said it. Mike Moore said it, but the Democrat insiderrs somehow though the message was old fashioned. We have the same debate here and the consequence was Hockey’s deliberate destruction of the car industry. Although the ALP is heavily contaminated by the same thinking that caused the US Democrats to get it wrong, we still have sufficient connection with the manufacturing unions to keep us grounded. Trump said what the people in Michigan wanted to hear. The Democrats waxed lyrical about globalism and service industries, no doubt raising the hackles of voters in the rust best every time they opened their mouths. Biden or Bill Clinton probably would not have let trump win this argument, but win it he did.

    2. “We want peace with Russia and to stop all these wars. They are expensive” Again this is a simple message, obvious to a greedy businessmen in the service sector (not military hardware) and to 80% of the population. however the beltway insiders of both parties kept up with usual spiel of national security, US greatness, evil Russians yada yada. trouble was that it is not their kids sent to fight and die abroad, but rather the kids of Flint Michigan who with no other job opportunities join the military and get killed.

    Gotta go now but will add other messaged later.

  26. I assume Coorey’s article is based on a drop from Frydenberg’s office, based on what he will say at a summit today, to summarize: not CET because renewables are getting so cheap they don’t need subsidies.

    It is a cop out, a complete surrender to the right wing.

    It could possibly be acceptable if all subsidies like concessional loans, and royalty discounts were also removed from coal and other fossil fuels.

  27. Tony Windsor‏ @TonyHWindsor · 57m57 minutes ago

    Why not obtain CSG from western Sydney near the population base ? Because of the water . Why is inland GAB and groundwater less important?

  28. Automation! That’s a fun, futuristic word. Automation is impressive right? When was the last time the government turned to automation to help them out?
    That would be this year’s ‘RoboDebt’ debt recovery from the Department of Human Services with the government sending out over 20,000 false or unnecessary debt notices. Almost 1 in every 5 notices was wrong in some way. (You can read more about the RoboDebt and the governments “privacy omnishambles” here.)
    Of course, we’re assured the technology behind it is solid and the algorithms it’s running are for our benefit.
    Facebook’s algorithms were working for the benefit of its advertisers when — unbeknownst to Facebook at the time — they allowed them to target categories like “Jew hater.”

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