BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

  1. It seems to me that the “access to drivers licence” stuff has been mainly a change to the technology used to get an ID image and match it up with a suspect’s image. The aim obviously was to make the process faster and possibly more accurate. It seems that real time scanning of crowds and getting everyone’s id in real time etc is not part of the deal, at least not at this stage.

    However, the government contrived to reveal the plans in such a way that they generated a huge wave of righteous indignation form “teh left”. In case you haven’t realised it they do this quite often. If done online this is the classic definition of trolling.

    However, some keep falling for it all the time, including the media. Actually, if the media did its job properly and looked beyond the first government press release, they’d rapidly see that lots of these “tough on terror” announcements are a bit of a damp squib. If they communicated this at the time of the announcement the government would not get its desired effect. Also, if some on “teh left” waited for the detailed proposal before predicting the end of civilisation as we know it, that would help too.

    We keep giving the other side easy points all the time and getting a reputation for calling wolf without warrant. A combination of cutting the announcement back to its REAL effect and not inflating it the way the government wants and only going bananas when there is something really extreme would be a much more effective political tactic.

    In case you haven’t noticed it, I’ve just described the approach of the federal opposition leadership led by Bill Shorten – support the unexceptional changes and try to kill off the hype as quickly as possible but then express disagreement with the more extreme proposals as they are doing now with the potential detention of children.

    I’m glad that Bill Shorten and his team are running the political strategy rather than some who post on this blog.

    None of this means that I don’t support a charter of rights and all the other good stuff – I think they’re vital to cope with emerging technology and the possible decay of the right of politics in Australia into outright Fascism. It’s just that we aren’t anywhere near that yet, and pretending we are makes it more likely that our longer term policies will be worse than if we looked at things more objectively.

  2. C@T

    The promise of money for Northcote out of nowhere is clearly a byelection promise out of the blue. To pretend otherwise is silly.

  3. Steve

    Yes the military mob surrounding Trump is pretty scary.

    Mind you I admit that i should have predicted SOME of it as he clearly has a penchant for such guys, but of course with so many of his choices being kicked out his natural instincts to choose military men was boosted.

    So if it will make the collected doubters happy i will admit that the increased control of policy given the the military is a real issue with Trump and on that score Hillary would have been preferable.

  4. Cat,

    My brother who lives with his family in Northcote told me last night about the funding. His take on the timing was “politics is sh#t#.” The low regard with which politicians are held by so many is understandable,and why increasing number of voters are giving the political duopoly the flick.

  5. dtt

    The deeper background to the story is that I was a board member at the time, and only became aware of these preparations because another board member asked what would happen if we had an outbreak of avian flu. The CEO explained there were detailed contingency plans for this, at a local, regional and state level, and rattled off another five or six scenarios which had recently gone through the same process.

    The point of that is that we, as board members, didn’t know and hadn’t been told, which suggests quite strongly that there are a lot of things happening in the background which aren’t general knowledge.

    Along the same lines, a few years ago I read a book which was basically predicting that a plague would come along and wipe us all out. In developing its contention, it looked at several cases the author regarded as ‘near misses’ (including the original ebola outbreak). What was clear to me – in contrast to the author’s contention – was that they weren’t near misses at all, and that in each case the medical authorities identified and dealt with the problem (even in the case of previously unknown diseases) remarkably promptly and efficiently.

  6. Simon Katich @ #506 Sunday, October 8th, 2017 – 7:18 pm

    **My main point was how DTT picks up something from an article that ‘could happens’ and turns it into ‘would happen’**
    My main concern was that we have 2yrs studying politics in common.

    But we probably studied different subjects. 😉
    Actually, I had some quite interesting lecturers and tutors, including Herb Feith, Max Teichmann, Harry Redner and Judith Brett. On the negative side I had Andrew Theophanous as one of my tutors. 🙁

  7. Rex

    …or you could find a poll which contradicts the one I linked to, and shows how overwhelmingly popular the Victorian Labor party is, compared to the federal one.

  8. My son said today that Trump is like a day-trader on the stock or currency markets – his time horizon is ultra-short and he aims to make a big win with every move in the hope that enough of them will outweigh the inevitable losses (my son does a lot of currency trading himself but not quite on the day trading timescale).

    Seemed a pretty good explanation to me.

    Also, when dealing with the Trump phenomenon, I think it’s worth employing Occams Razor: It warns about over-analysing situations – it says we should search for the insight that requires the fewest assumptions. It’s not infallible, but can be a very important clarifying tool.

    So with the two assumptions that Trump is a dipshit and a day-trader I reckon we can get pretty close to understanding him. Unfortunately day-traders are almost totally unpredictable so it may not be much use!

  9. dtt
    “I am quite sure I got a better grasp of bacteriology than most GPs”

    Is now a good time to point out that study of Ebola, Hendra and flu is not bacteriology but virology?

    I do agree that we aren’t prepared for a mass viral contagion. Not even a little bit.

  10. Pegasus @ #562 Sunday, October 8th, 2017 – 9:38 pm

    Cat,

    My brother who lives with his family in Northcote told me last night about the funding. His take on the timing was “politics is sh#t#.” The low regard with which politicians are held by so many is understandable,and why increasing number of voters are giving the political duopoly the flick.

    Your brother told you. Well that was a self-selected sample with predictable outcomes.

    My advice? Stop being so bloody cynical. It might be the key to unlocking greater popularity for The Greens. Because, at the moment The Greens’ popularity is flatlining and stagnating.

  11. Jeez, I must be ace at Microbiology, Physiology, Anatomy & Biochemistry, simply because I studied them at University! Thus I arrogate unto myself the right to pontificate about all these subjects. ; )

  12. Green hacks are no different in their partisanship to ALP and LNP hacks. They are pissed off about a public school getting funded because of politics. I also saw some social media comments from bitter Greens about how Vic Labor stealing their policies in regards to new laws for tenants and renting.

  13. Dio

    Yes of course I am aware that Ebola etc are viruses. I was being honest and specific. The course I did was superb but it was a long time ago and virology was in its infancy. Therefore I can say that it was very bloody good on bacteriology, less so on virology, although obviously the basic infection control techniques are similar.

    Now I have studied many, many subjects at university (a quick count says 28) and I have to say that that micro course was the best taught of any of the 28.

    So I deliberately used the term bacteriology, but as per usual the narks will bend and twist it into something nasty (I was NOT including you).

    I am disappointed that you think we are not prepared for a serious epidemic but see no reason to doubt you. Would it be the flu do you think or one of the exotic diseases? What of the re-emergence of bacterial diseases given antibiotic resistance? is it a serious issue or a bit of overblown hype?

  14. C@tmomma
    Jeez, I must be ace at Microbiology, Physiology, Anatomy & Biochemistry, simply because I studied them at University! Thus I arrogate unto myself the right to pontificate about all these subjects. ; )

    Go C@t…you’re on fire tonight !

  15. Quarterly Newspoll results:

    Malcolm Turnbull has lost more ground with voters across regional Australia in a danger sign for his government in key marginal seats, with a new analysis showing core support for the Coalition has fallen from 44 to 34 per cent in the regions since last year’s federal election.

    The government has increased its primary vote in Victoria, South Australia and NSW but the gains have not been enough to halt the national trend towards Labor, which has cemented its national lead in the latest quarterly Newspoll analysis of thousands of voters.

    Mr Turnbull has kept his ascendancy over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister with his personal support lifting in the same three states, during a period when he has stepped up his attack on Labor over energy prices.

    The quarterly Newspoll analysis, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor continues to lead the Coalition by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, holding the same advantage for three consecutive quarters this year.

    In a shock result for the government in one of its key constituencies, the Coalition’s primary vote among voters outside the five capital cities fell from 36 to 34 per cent over the three months to the end of September.

    The outcome is the government’s lowest result in regional Australia since it secured a narrow election victory last year with a 44 per cent primary vote outside the capitals, 10 percentage points higher than the new polling.

    In a dramatic turnaround, Labor now has stronger core support than the Coalition among voters outside the capital cities, with its primary vote rising from 34 to 36 per cent over the quarter.

    The outcome raises questions about the performance of the Nationals and country Liberals in shoring up support when the government’s fate could hinge on a handful of regional electorates in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

    This is the first time Labor has taken the lead over the Coalition among regional and rural voters since last year’s election, when its primary vote outside the capital cities was only 30.8 per cent.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-turnbull-loses-more-ground-in-regional-seats/news-story/02f4d77d54cb1323c22454bf66d9acb9

  16. Cat

    As a pharmacist I should bloody well hope that you are an ace at microbiology and physiology and not too bad at anatomy and biochem. You need these four subjects in your daily work and I would hope that if still practicing you keep up with these subjects.

  17. dtt

    “I am disappointed that you think we are not prepared for a serious epidemic but see no reason to doubt you. Would it be the flu do you think or one of the exotic diseases? What of the re-emergence of bacterial diseases given antibiotic resistance? is it a serious issue or a bit of overblown hype?”

    I have a friend who was high up in CBR (chemical.biological, radiological) disaster planning. Flu isn’t as bad as the exotics as they are lethally contagious which means the hospital staff will all die i(or more likely not turn up to work) if infection control breaks down.
    We had a mock scenario of an Ebola like virus in a major hospital here. It was a total disaster. Not enough masks of the right type, few had been fitted for the masks and the hospital staff were grossly contaminated about 30 minutes into the exercise.

    On the antibiotics, it could be a huge issue (see The Guardian article). The Ganges is basically one huge patient with antibiotic levels in the water the same as a treated patients bloodstream.
    I’m probably like most doctors in just assuming the drug companies will get off their arses and develop a few new classes of antibiotics to keep ahead in the war but the bugs are catching up fast.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/oct/08/world-faces-antibiotic-apocalypse-says-chief-medical-officer

  18. Dio

    Your scenario is sort of what I would expect.Not enough masks etc and chaos.

    The not turning up to work is sort of what I would expect too – at least not until absolutely safe protective gear is supplied.

    With something like Ebola one issue would be waste disposal – who picks up the infectious waste bags and delivers them to the incinerators – would there be staff at the waste disposal facility. Now I happen to know that in Qld that was sorted or at least there was a company willing to take it on in terms of moving it from the hospital wards and with the requisite skills and commitment, but not sure if even they would have had the staff willing to be involved.

  19. dtt

    Health workers (drs, nurses, lab technicians) were 30 times as likely to die of Ebola compared with non-health workers in the African epidemic. You’d have to be brave, loyal or stupid to turn up to work in an Ebola hospital.
    I don’t know if the government can force you to with emergency powers but it would be very hard to staff. OHS would never allow it under normal circumstances.

  20. British Prime Minister Theresa May has signalled that she could sack Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, a newspaper says, as she tries to reassert her authority after a series of political disasters.

    The Sunday Times said it asked May about her plans for Johnson, who has professed loyalty but is accused by some of the prime minister’s allies of undermining her by putting forward his own vision for Britain’s exit from the European Union.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/british-prime-minister-theresa-may-signals-boris-johnson-could-be-sacked-20171008-gywqpx.html

    Yes, because antagonizing the person who wants to take your job is a good way to make them stop. Said no sane person, ever.

  21. Dio

    Yes I absolutely agree which was one reason I was more worried than most re an Ebola outbreak. The death rate for medical staff was ridiculously high and you would need to be crazy brave to nurse anyone in that situation.

    I am sure there would have been some noble souls who treated patients but there would also be a lot of absentees.

    I guess once they could provide full space suits etc for the nursing staff and doctors it would be easier but even so it would be hard.

    I assume that military doctors could be ordered to treat patients.

  22. I think there is an election coming up…

    First I seen ads for Government on “Solving” energy crises, then tonight I see ads for NBN.

    Massive advertising blitz being paid by us tax payers!

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