BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. JohnJohnsonson: This is what happens when the Telegraph strays from its diet of Pauline Hanson, the Ibrahim family and rugby league awards nights.

  2. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said he is “keenly aware” of the pain and disappointment NBN installations are causing the public

    Stand ready for “thoughts and prayers are with you”.

  3. WB – That the movement is mostly occurring between One Nation and the Coalition I don’t find too surprising.

    The sort of ‘policy’ and ‘likes’ and ‘dislikes’ that One Nation come out with is what the more to the right Coalition would like to be saying. They are only constrained by understanding that their ‘ideas’, at least for now, are vote losers.

  4. I think South Australia is going to be one of the most unpredictable states. With Xenophon moving back to state politics if he loses that could boost One Nation. If he wins then that could boost NXT Federally.

    Either way the split on the right that now seems to be becoming permanent is going to benefit progressives as minority governments become more common than before.

  5. I KNEW it! William did me over again.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m back in the saddle after a good six hours of sleep. The finger is well on the way to being better. Thanks to lizzie and helpers for filling in.

    In an excellent and instructive article Peter Hartcher writes that Barack Obama wanted three attributes of Australia for America. He wanted Australia’s universal healthcare system, its gun laws and its compulsory voting system. These are three of the defining differences between the two societies.
    The SMH editorial examines the NRA’s cold, dead hands’ grip on the US.
    Mark Kenny looks at the Xenophon phenomenon. And it’s not good news for the SA Liberals, he says.
    Paula Matthewson on the logic and ambition behind Xenophon’s move.
    David Crowe thinks things will become more difficult for Turnbull in Xenophon’s absence. Google.
    Michelle Grattan writes that Nick Xenophon, the master of the stunt, is about to indulge in one more before he leaves the Senate for a run at ruling the South Australian roost from its crossbench.
    Tony Wright is more light-hearted over the matter.
    Pontificating Paul Kelly wrings his hands over his concerns that socialism might make a comeback Google.
    In the absence of clear motive by the Las Vegas shooter there is a tendency to declare it was not “terrorism”.

  6. Pontificating Paul Kelly wrings his hands over his concerns that socialism might make a comeback

    I have seen a list of pre-conditions for a fascist state which suggests we may be heading in the opposite direction to socialism. But I’m sure Kelly fears socialism more.

  7. Just for the fun of playing with the numbers, this is the most recent (July) South Australia state poll I could find.

    Although X’s party is polling well (on 21%) his vote shows a steady decline since the start of the year.

    I don’t know anything about the demographics of the individual seat he’s contesting.

    I’d also caution against getting too wildly excited about these figures. As we know, PHON was polling well in WA and then collapsed in a heap. But then, I’ve never understood why SA ers are so into Xenophon, a supposedly single issue politician who never seems to talk about his single issue, let alone even try to do something about it (when have we ever heard him say, “the sticking point in my negotiations with the government on this bill is their refusal to discuss restrictions on gambling”?)

  8. Zoomster

    I understand X will only be running in 12-20 seats, probably where he polls well (Adelaide Hills for instance). I think people view him as a threat to the Libs but I think his impact on Labor is glossed over. Labor has been in power since 2002 in SA, They got lucky last time around cause Abbott was PM and what not. Some Labor leaning voter may find X more appealing than the Libs.

  9. Morning bludgers


    Your bumper dawn patrol has been trapped on previous thread!

    I must have missed it. But your finger? I thought it was a back problem?

    And I am starting to wonder about the LVegas shooter. His IRS return for 2015 showed he made 5 million dollars from online poker. Really? I don’t buy it. Something is definitely off about this whole thing. The idea that the authorities are flummmoxed about this guys motives is showing me a bunch of red flags.

  10. WilmaSlurrie: Today’s #auspol quiz question:
    Q: Why isn’t New Zealand under terrorist threat but Australia is?
    A: NZ Govt is ahead in the polls.

  11. Thanks BK
    WTF moment of the morning. Queensland land owners use a system of “self assessment” to determine levels of land clearing.
    A bit like irrigators in northern NSW used “self assessment” to steal from environmental water flows, aided and abetted by state and federal governments.

  12. On the NBN, Turnbull is just a dodgy salesman. He’s not an implimenter, or a do-er. As soon as he’s sold a crap product to one mark, he’s moved on to the next. I like this comment in the Guardian:

    [I work with project managers who are just like Turnbull. Their first meetings are formal and pompous and they project a messiah like image and install confidence in the dim of wit. Then as things progress, they quickly fall apart, schedules and budget blow out…points of risk are ignored, experts are not consulted and the project scope allowed to expand to an endless list of wishes from those with vested interests. Eventually they slink off to another “critical” project only to be replaced from what seems like an endless stream of gobshites. There are many more Turnbull out there……..just don’t let them get hold of your critical infrastructure.]

  13. Leaders in western democracies are quick to declare in times of national security emergencies that the threat of terrorism cannot change our way of life.

    It really is time to cut the crap. Terrorism has changed our way of life, and in profound ways.

    Leaders in western democracies are quick to declare in times of national security emergencies that the threat of terrorism cannot change our way of life.

    Take the two most recent examples.

    When political leaders have agreed to a uniform regime that permits children as young as 10 to be detained without charge for 14 days, and when that framework is championed by the most progressive political leader in the country, the Victorian premier Daniel Andrews, things have changed.

    When the prime minister in quite unguarded fashion talks about the benefits of mass surveillance through CCTV, combined with a new national face matching database, to use his words – “the power of being able to identify, to be looking out for and identify a person suspected of being involved in terrorist activities, walking into an airport, walking into a sporting stadium” – things have changed.

    We should not pretend otherwise. All the Churchillian rhetoric, while well intentioned and fashioned to soothe, insults the intelligence of the electorate.

  14. I think Mr X far prefers the LNP to the ALP and would do a deal with the Libs in SA if given a chance to hold balance of power.
    So, yes, the ALP should be concerned, and the better game plan would be to say ‘no deal with Xenaphon.’

  15. anton

    Not sure why that follows.

    PHON didn’t perform as well as expected, partly because they didn’t field candidates in enough seats (if you’re polling at 10% overall, but only contest 10 seats in 100, you end up polling 1% at the election).

    20% of the vote (X’s latest polling figures) in a handful of seats won’t win an Upper House spot, unless the majority of seats you contest fall into one UH electorate (don’t know how SA works well enough to know if this is so for X).

    It’s also hard to win a LH seat with 20% of the votes (possible but absolutely everything has to go your way). One would expect X would do better than that in the seat he personally contests, but it’s hard to see him garnering up enough seats to become a real force.

    That, of course, may be once of his motivations – rather than see his party fall short at State level, he’s aiming for at least one win.

  16. Trog
    It is the new governance standard. There are many examples. Our banks use self-assessment to decide when they should be charged with money laundering. Our ministers use self-assessment for deciding when they should resign for misleading parliament. Our companies use self assessment for deciding when they should pay workers the legal minimum wage.

    It is a beautiful system for the assessor.

  17. Was posted earlier. But treats posited on Twitter. Then plot thickens

    Michael Del Moro
    Michael Del Moro @MikeDelMoro
    ABC News: Robert Mueller’s team met behind closed doors today w an unknown group of attorneys & chief judge of US District Court in DC
    6:15 AM · Oct 7, 2017

  18. Zoom
    Xenephon has tried to broaden his appeal. I think he chases the same SA demographic the Democrats carved out. He chases a lot of local issues, and money for SA. It is a bit of a grab-bag in my view. I do not perceive he has a clear political ideology. He is not stupid though – he must rate himself a chance in that seat or he would not stand in it. An X candidate might have a fair chance here where I live in Bragg too, where Vicky Chapman has ruled for a long time.

  19. Doing the back of an envelope stuff, I can’t see X winning Hartley unless he is preferenced by one of the majors.

    If they put each other ahead of him, he has no chance.

    His vote actually fell at the last election in SA (whereas both Liberal and Labor had swings to them).

    X isn’t stupid, but he has a lot of ego. It can get in the way of realistic decision making.

    ***Disclaimer: I’m almost always wrong in my predictions, but that’s when I’m going with gut feelings. Give me numbers and I usually get it right.

  20. Zoom
    I think you are correct about X on the numbers. If you compare to the Dems, they nearly won Mayo when they came second and picked up Labor preferences.if the local sitting member is weak, presumably X hopes to do the same. It is hard to see what he can offer people to win the primary vote, because it is hard to see him forming government.

  21. Zoomster

    If Xenophon loses he has been in parliament for ten years in SA. In Senate for Ten years.

    Good pensions. Last throw of dice worth it to continue getting his money up and boost his ego in thinking he makes a difference.

    He does. He splits the vote on the right. In SA he is keeping One Nation out. Not a bad investment of taxpayers dollars really.

  22. It seems that I am locked out and cannot post the Dawn Patrol on this thread.
    William – I think section 2 is hanging up somewhere in this thread.

  23. victoria

    Was posted earlier. But treats posited on Twitter. Then plot thickens

    Michael Del Moro
    Michael Del Moro @MikeDelMoro
    ABC News: Robert Mueller’s team met behind closed doors today w an unknown group of attorneys & chief judge of US District Court in DC


    I read somewhere, Victoria, that there have been NO LEAKS from the Mueller team up till now – and the fact that this in the news signifies that perhaps ‘something’ is on the move with them …… hopefully things start happening !!!

  24. America Rejects Trump Like A Bad Organ Transplant As His Approval Sinks To 32%

    Trump’s approval has hit a new record low of 32% according to a new AP poll, which means that this president is worse than unpopular. He is being soundly rejected.

    The AP-NORC poll found, “Thirty-two percent of Americans say they approve of the way President Trump is handling his job and 67 percent disapprove. His approval rating is down from 42 percent in March and 35 percent in June. While 67 percent of Republicans still approve of the job the president is doing, support among Republicans has decreased significantly since March when 80 percent of Republicans expressed approval. Twenty-eight percent of independents and 5 percent of Democrats say they approve of Trump’s handling of his job. Among Democrats, this also represents a decline since March when 11 percent said they approved.”

    The American body politic is rejecting the Trump presidency like a bad organ transplant, and unpopular decisions like rolling back contraceptive coverage are designed to appease the 32% that still support him, but if Republicans go into elections in 2018 and 2020 with Trump at 32% approval, they will lose and lose badly.

  25. Zoomster – as some have mentioned on this blog, if X doesn’t win Hartley he can stand for the Fed Senate again at the next election in late 2018!

  26. REVEALED: Russian-created Facebook posts pushed for Texas secession while defending Confederate ‘heritage’

    A new report from the Philadelphia Inquirer sheds new light on Russia’s efforts to undermine American democracy and help Donald Trump get elected president.

    The Inquirer’s report details a Russian-created Facebook group called “Heart of Texas” that repeatedly linked Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to terrorists while pushing for Texas to secede from the United States.

    One post featured a fake photo of Clinton shaking hands with the late al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden with a caption that read, “Hillary, Stay Away From Texas.” Another one featured a cardboard cutout of Clinton locked in a cage with a “Hillary for Prison” caption.

    Additionally, the account also openly backed the Texas secession movement while defending the Confederacy.

  27. Rex Tillerson ‘f*cking hates’ Ambassador Nikki Haley for ‘bringing home the bacon’: report

    President Donald Trump’s palace intrigue continued Friday afternoon with new reports about about a brewing enmity between Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.

    According to The New Yorker, the bad blood between the head of the State Department and his top overseas emissary has to do with the latter’s success in Asian diplomacy.

    In spite of Tillerson infamous inability to fully staff the State Department and Trump’s tense relationship with China amid his threats to North Korea, Haley is “seen as the most effective diplomat in the crisis,” the New Yorker reported.

    ‘Nikki’s getting it done,” a senior Trump administration official told the magazine of Haley’s United Nations wins.

    Tillerson, on the other hand, was angered by his subordinate’s propensity for “bringing home the bacon.”

    “Rex hates her,” the same official said. “He f*cking hates her.”

  28. phRD

    “Rex hates her,” the same official said. “He f*cking hates her.”

    She comes across as less likeable than Hilary Clinton. That really takes some doing.

  29. Robert Reich urges Tillerson to get together with other officials to oust Trump from office

    Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich urged embattled Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to not quit his job, but instead to get together with other administration officials to remove President Donald Trump from office.

    He continued, “I’m also reasonably sure you called him a moron, which doesn’t make Washington any less petty. You probably called him a moron because almost all of us out here in the rest of America routinely call him that.”

    “The reason your moronic comment about Trump made the headlines is that Trump really is a moron, in the sense you probably meant it: He’s impulsive, mercurial, often cruel, and pathologically narcissistic. Some psychologists who have studied his behavior have concluded he’s a sociopath,” Reich said.

  30. The Libs are freaked out and will stoop into the sub-gutter regions to attack X. It will backfire on them and not significantly adversely effect him.

    X doesnt just attract the old Dems demographics. He is supported by a lot of small-medium sized local businesses (with the notable exception of the Peregrine Group). There are a lot of people who are either directly or indirectly associated with these businesses. Expect to see a lot of supportive advertising in shopfronts.

    X will win Hartley. You heard it here first.

  31. phoenixRED

    Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich urged embattled Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to not quit his job, but instead to get together with other administration officials to remove President Donald Trump from office.

    So he wants “officials” to oust an elected president ? Sounds very democratic.

  32. And of course News Ltd will be fully mobilised against Xenophon especially locally in South Australia.

    I don’t think they will do him any favours even though he supported media reform.

    He will have to come out in detail where he stands on energy.

  33. Steve777

    PhRED @9:19AM. The main thing I get from those numbers is that the USA is highly (and dangerously) polarised.


    Yes I agree Steve – what worries me most is Trumps so called base – and knowing the sort of folks in that base and their prejudices and gun collections – the worry is how they may/will react if Trump gets railroaded out of office …

  34. poroti


    “Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich urged embattled Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to not quit his job, but instead to get together with other administration officials to remove President Donald Trump from office.”

    So he wants “officials” to oust an elected president ? Sounds very democratic.


    Reich did talk about ‘legal’ means of doing it by the 25th Amendment – even if it has not been used before :

    And while the administration may be chaotic, the president erratic and the job thankless, Reich urged Tillerson not to walk away from his job.

    “I urge you not to resign,” he said. “America and the world need sane voices speaking into the ear of our Narcissist-in-Chief. As Senator Bob Corker, Republican of Tennessee and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee said recently, it’s you, Mattis, and Kelly who ‘help separate our country from chaos.’”

    “Quietly meet with Mattis, Kelly, and Vice President Pence. Come up with a plan for getting most of the cabinet to join in a letter to Congress saying Trump is unable to discharge the duties of his office,” Reich urged. “Under the 25th Amendment, that would mean Trump is fired.”

  35. CTar1
    I think Xenophon will be more of a problem for the Coalition is SA than he will for Labor.

    Absolutely, 16 years of Labour and in every measure that matters SA is lagging somewhere around last health, education, unemployment.

    Libs need 54% (joh would be so proud) to form Government now along comes Xenophon. So its a Labor Xenophone alliance until SA is so stuffed that the people finally say ok this is enough and like Tasmania say it is time to give the Libs a go.

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