BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

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  1. It really does sound like Nick’s ego has got to the better of him, as it does so many politicians. He thinks he will be the power-broker in the next SA parliament. But what if he is just a lame-duck independent (as is also quite possible). Premier? I would be very surprised.

  2. The other factors at play in S Aus are Benardi and One Nation. I imagine Benardi will run a local campaign and that might leave PHON to sit out due to overlap.

  3. Steely

    The other problem for the Coalition is that Marshall is about as useful as a fly screen on a submarine.

    It’s amazing that they can’t roll some one out some one better.

    Like the Democrats in the US …

  4. Thanks BK. PvO spot on with this:

    Next up, opponents of same-sex marriage will seek to disrupt the legislative push to enact marriage equality by spruiking concerns about so-called “religious freedoms”. Not the right of religious orders to refuse to marry gays, which is a completely uncontested proposition, but what happens in religious schools, hospitals and even with bakers and taxi drivers who may not want to serve a gay couple.

    The biggest irony of such concerns, apart from the scant international evidence of problems on this front, is that most of the same people who want enshrined rights on this score have long argued against a bill of rights for Australia. Had they gone down a different track back then, they wouldn’t face concerns on this front today.

    To elaborate on the irony, these sudden campaigners for enshrined protections finally know what it feels like to be in a minority. Strange how they didn’t give two hoots about other minorities when those groups sought to make their cases for enshrined rights over the years.

    What goes around comes around is the uncharitable thought that comes to mind.

  5. CTar1 – I am constantly amused at the commentators who wonder why Turnbull is still in situ. None of them are prepared to face the fact that everyone around him is f…ing hopeless. He is protected by a bodyguard of idiots.

  6. and the fact that this in the news signifies that perhaps ‘something’ is on the move with them …… hopefully things start happening !!!

    The lack of leaks from the Mueller investigation is in stark contrast to the leaks washing out of the WH. I too hope this is the start of some action.

  7. It’s quite a strange phenomenon we are living through. Steve triple 7 say that USA is dangerously polarised. I agree, but there are kind of 3 poles in play. Same here in places.

    You have the wowser-right (primarily right wing but also disaffected lefties who have lost their stake in society somewhat) – uneducated buffoons like One Nation or Trump/Bannon’s America who are more influenced by conspiracy theories than actuality but have become a force like it’s some kind of disease where rationality has been lost.

    Like One Nation, they tried to gain a foothold some time ago (via tea party politics) but didn’t quite gel then.

    They returned when the time was more ripe for disaffection without the kinds of moral/social constraints that past politics provided.

    In corner two, you have progressive/liberals (ie ALP, Democrats, centre-left rather than completely left – though those on the conservative side like to tar this group as commies/socialists).

    And three, you have centre-right conservatives who aren’t stupid/uneducated (just a little deluded to my way of thinking ).

    So it’s a 3 way play, with centre-right and centre left being relatively well-defined and predictable and then the wowsers who are the disrupters, unpredictable, and in our preferential system, difficult to define from one election to the next as their philosophy is not clearly defined nor has any root in conventional thinking. They are easily swayed by individual grievances/issues without thought to the overall picture.

    Xenophon is also of a similar ilk though he is more firmly entrenched in the centre-right’s camp balanced by the Greens, who I believe (contrary to many, I suspect) are not ultra left wing even if they might have started out that way.

    Now I’ve made some sweeping statements here, so I expect a lot of buts … so discuss away!

  8. Ides,

    Divided Nation aren’t really an issue in SA, Family First seems to have filled this niche in the past.

    X is a thorn for Bernardi especially with Bernardi not being an actual candidate.

    The Libs fail to attract quality candidates and their position is mainly a result of demographics rather than ability.

  9. AB

    You’d think the Libs would have taken notice of what happened when Howard bit the dust.

    Shane Stone had told them the truth when he said they were seen as ‘mean and tricky’.

    But still they persist and even promote turkeys like Pyne.

  10. Steelydan

    Libs need 54% (joh would be so proud) to form Government now along comes Xenophon. So its a Labor Xenophone alliance until SA is so stuffed that the people finally say ok this is enough and like Tasmania say it is time to give the Libs a go.

    I think Sir Thomas Playford in SA had an even better gerrymander than Joh in Queensland.

  11. BK

    I have tried to copy and paste Dawn patrol to this thread, but it won’t allow me too. Perhaps someone else will have more luck

  12. citizen

    New nothing of Playford, they even called it the Playmander.

    Its an electerol commison nighmare SA but 54% is not good enough

  13. SD
    where do you get the 54% from? The boundaries have been redrawn and several ALP seats are now nominally Liberal.

    Because the Lib voters are so heavily concentrated in a few seats the redraw had to be done in a way that created a large imbalance in numbers of voters in each electorate – which has caused concerns of its own.

  14. BK @ #1724 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:16 am

    Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe does it again! I love the rear view mirror.

    Jim Pavlidis explains US politics.

    Alan Moir is unconvinced by Turnbull’s efforts on energy.

    I love this one from Cathy Wilcox.

    Trump visits Puerto Rico.

    Peter Broelman takes facial recognition technology one step further.

    Matt Golding farewells Senator X from Canberra.

    As does David Pope.
    Ron Tandberg in the US.

    Zanetti has a look at facial recognition too.

    From the US.

    Matt Golding has the animal kingdom looking on at Las Vegas.

    Jon Kudelka inside the NO campaign office.

    Alan Moir with the chookless head.

    A pensive Ron Tandberg gives us this one.
    The YES guard.

  15. BK @ #1720 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:12 am

    Section 2 . . .

    Wendy Squires concludes an emotional article on the US gun culture with “I know whose heads I’d like to see mounted as trophies, and that is complacent politicians who kowtow to the rabid gun nuts of the NRA.”
    Why Americans won’t give up their precious guns.
    How the NRA has the Republicans by the balls. Google.
    Nick O’Malley explains a killer quirk residing inside Australia’s gun laws.
    Mike Seccombe looks closely at how Murdoch has failed to “Foxify” Sky News.
    It seems that in Bangkok sex DOES move the earth!
    Victoria’s dodgiest landlords and real estate agents will be publicly named and shamed on a blacklist available to tenants as early as next year, the state government has pledged.
    State politicians waved through Malcolm Turnbull’s proposals for a face recognition database and 14-day detention with barely a shrug says Katharine Murphy.
    Those clamouring for “protection of religious freedom” should be careful what they wish for, because a wider understanding of religious freedom would threaten the many privileges faith groups continue to enjoy in this country. A quite interesting article.
    Elizabeth Farrelly has a big spit over the mining madness as she accuses the federal government to be behaving increasingly like some savage pimp, threatening military and fiscal brutality to force us back into a fossil-fuel addiction we yearn to escape.

  16. Re Jenauthor @10:14AM: interesting analysis around a 3 pole model.

    It appears that two of the poles are in a sort of awkward Coalition in the USA and Australia, with the “sensible” right (traditional Liberals / moderates / establishment Republicans) joining in a marriage of convenience with the “buffoon” right to attain and maintain power.

    I also agree about the Greens. They are not extreme or radical. Their main sin is they don’t respect money as much as everyone else thinks they should, they think some things are more important.

  17. Watergate legend Carl Bernstein reveals GOP Congress has ‘lost confidence’ in Trump’s fitness for office

    Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Carl Bernstein described the Trump administration as “unlike anything I have seen in 50 years in Washington” while reporting that Republicans are privately assessing President Donald Trump as unfit for office.

    “What there is a sense of, people I talk to in the White House and Republicans on Capitol Hill, is that the wheels are coming off this presidency,” Woodward told CNN New Day anchors Poppy Harlow and Chris Cuomo.

    “He’s constantly complaining, going into rages about the investigation, about disloyalty among his aides,” Bernstein noted. “It’s an extraordinary situation. Unlike anything I have seen in 50 years in Washington.”

    Bernstein claimed that in private, Republicans on Capitol Hill admit, “we are in a dangerous situation in this country.”

    “They are worried that we have a president of the United States who is really not stable in terms of the occupying the office and exercising the powers of the presidency,” Bernstein explained. “It is an extraordinary situation and that’s the real story.”

  18. Steelydan

    New nothing of Playford, they even called it the Playmander.

    Its an electerol commison nighmare SA but 54% is not good enough

    I agree that “one vote, one value” should be the norm.

  19. BK @ #1722 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:14 am

    Section 4 . . .

    Richard Dennis wonders what it is that guides governments’ priorities. He says that the Coalition is now in its fifth year in power, yet it spends more time blaming Labor for the country’s problems than spelling out its own plans to improve Australians’ lives.
    Contrary to Abbott, who argues that pushing renewable energy onto the grid under the Renewable Energy Target (RET) has made power costly and unreliable, rapidly falling prices may now mean that building more wind and solar is the key to bringing wholesale electricity prices down. Google.
    Theresa May must sack Boris Johnson and shake up her cabinet if she is to reassert her authority and silence talk of a leadership plot in the wake of this week’s calamitous party conference, Conservative MPs will tell her. The Tories are not motoring at all well!
    What in the hell is Trump up to now? A big, dangerous unicorn?
    Alan Kohler says that Trump’s big tax plan was doomed from the start. Google.
    Jailed former NSW Labor ministers Eddie Obeid and Ian Macdonald and Obeid’s middle son Moses will face a marathon six-month criminal trial in 2019 on conspiracy charges over their alleged involvement in a coal deal. There will more than a few column inches written about this marathon!
    This court case will get a bit of attention too!
    Turnbull is feeling the heat on the NBN and its problems.
    Paul Bongiorno writes on haw Pauline Hanson is gunning for Queensland.

  20. BK @ #1723 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:15 am

    Section 5 . . .

    The Trump administration has dramatically expanded the number of employers allowed to flout the Affordable Care Act (ACA) policy that requires company healthcare plans to cover contraception at no additional cost.
    An abuse survivor who testified to the royal commission about her treatment at a Catholic school recounts the experience of submitting to the church’s Towards Healing protocol, and the unfeeling homily offered to her by the bishop now responsible.
    Yet another big storm is headed to the US.
    Crispin Hull explores the influence of Martin Luther as the 500th anniversary of his seminal thesis is being celebrated.
    On top of his existing portfolios of Immigration, Customs and Border Force, Peter Dutton is soon to also control ASIO, the AFP, the Criminal Intelligence Commission and AUSTRAC. Why does one department need such immense, centralised power?,10791
    Queensland is destroying tree cover at the rate of 10 square kilometres a day, harming biodiversity while stoking doubts about federal data suggesting emissions from land clearing are in decline. What in the hell is going on?
    The Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority released its first report yesterday, aiming to ensure politicians are accountable for the way they spend millions in taxpayer dollars. Eryk Bagshaw has a look at it and on first glance it seems Labor is not highly mentioned.
    The Turnbull government has rejected an opposition proposal to ban the cladding responsible for London’s deadly Grenfell Tower fire, putting it at odds with the Property Council of Australia and the recommendations of a Labor-chaired Senate inquiry. Unless there are significant strengthening of regulations and compliance structures its arguemnts are hollow.
    Jacqui Maley says that the citizenship debate is providing more questions than answers.
    Forget the myopic Press Gallery and his crusty political opponents, 23-year-old Caitlin Mary says Bill Shorten’s radio rap this morning will win him a lot of young fans.,10792
    Adele Ferguson tells us that a report into human rights risks in the operations and supply chains of 23 listed companies in the extractives, agricultural and medical equipment is being uses by super funds and unions.

  21. what I always thought we would be getting withi the Trump imbroglio

    [Bernstein claimed that in private, Republicans on Capitol Hill admit, “we are in a dangerous situation in this country.”]

  22. In some ways it is unfortunate we are so tied to the US. If we were seen as more independent, then this calamity that is the Trump regime might have seen Australia emerging from this presidential term stronger on the world stage (Turnbull govt notwithstanding).

    Like Abbott’s ascendency, this is going to leave the country and its electorate’s trust in leadership disastrously diminished.

    Hypothetical, I know, but had ALP managed to win in 2016, with its better ideas (in contrast to the Libs’ being held hostage by mining interests and ultra-conservative nut jobs) we would surely come out of this world-wide period of flux in a much better position internationally.

    The focus would not have been fear, fear, fear and national security. Economically we would be edging forward rather than falling back on past habits that have proven to be wrong for the current situation.

    As it is, the Turnbull experiment has basically made us a ‘follower’ in that our govt is going down the same destructive paths as the US and Britain.

    Germany has proven that there is another way.

  23. Simon Katich
    where do you get the 54% from? The boundaries have been redrawn and several ALP seats are now nominally Liberal.

    Good to here I new the SA electoral commission was looking into changes but I did not know they were in place.

    Still 16 years of Labor last two elections Libs were 53% and 51.6 % and now Xenophon does not look good for the Liberal party.

    Have a friend in SA and I tease himabout how SA is travelling and he just shrugs and says yep we deserve it.

  24. Republican’s worried about Trump?

    Watergate legend Carl Bernstein reveals GOP Congress has ‘lost confidence’ in Trump’s fitness for office

    I don’t think we need “legend Carl Bernstein” to tell us this … huge 😆

  25. Off topic, but Sydney’s “Big Dry” continues. Chatswood (on the normally damp North Shore) has not recorded a drop of rain in 40 days (and 40 nights – a reverse Noah story). Since the beginning of July Sydney has had under 40mm of rain (about 15% of the average).

  26. Jen

    Hypothetical, I know, but had ALP managed to win in 2016, with its better ideas (in contrast to the Libs’ being held hostage by mining interests and ultra-conservative nut jobs) we would surely come out of this world-wide period of flux in a much better position internationally.

    There is no ultra-conservatives in the LNP what is it about the left and exageration. Pauline Hanson is as close as we have and she has some quite leftest populist ideologies.

  27. Amid the chaos and dysfunction that marks Washington in the age of Trump, it can be easy to miss that this White House is corrupt. Remarkably, unbelievably, corrupt.

    Compared with other crises and controversies enveloping this administration, mere graft seems minor. It’s not a natural disaster, an FBI investigation, or an open display of sympathy for white supremacists. Still, the corruption shouldn’t be dismissed. Not just because it’s wrong, but because it puts serious stress on our democratic institutions at exactly the time they need support.

    At the center is President Trump himself, who treats the treasury like a slush fund. Trump takes regular trips to his properties in Florida, New Jersey, and Virginia. At last look, according to the New York Times, he spent 85 days visiting at least one of his properties out of a total of 249 days on the job as president.

  28. I dont think the SA situation is that dire. Unemployment is down to the national average. Adelaide cost of living is lower than most other capitals. Buying a house is a different ballpark to Syd and Melb. Most suburbs are a short drive to the City. And when you get sick of the parochial South Australians, the International Airport is also very close.

    And atm, the weather is pretty good.

    Just a shame about all the murders.

  29. SA buisness needs a shot in the arm big time, the pendulum needs to swing back the other way for a while. Give us two terms to fix it up for you then you can go on a spending spree again 🙂

  30. I wonder if X has had approaches from within the SA libs telling him that if he can grab the balance of power, he can be the Premier and Marshall is toast. That would be catnip for someone with a messiah complex.

  31. Polyamory Action Lobby, “For too long has Australia denied people the right to marry the ones they care about. We find this abhorrent. We believe that everyone should be allowed to marry their partners, and that the law should never be a barrier to love. And that’s why we demand nothing less than the full recognition of polyamorous families.”

    Sounds familiar sure I have heard something similar lately.

    Don’t over react taking the piss. mostly.

  32. steely

    On the exaggeration bit I’m busy cooking a $100 leg of lamb at the moment. By the time I cover the potatoes and other stuff I expecting to be going in to liquidation any time now.

    Do I need to get Scotty or Joe in to help me budget? Joe’s advice is to always to go the Kentucky Fried for value for money, I’m reliably informed.

  33. Steelydan – Yup, elect the morons, cos they’re different. They sure are. Weatherill is basically leading the world on Energy policy and you want … Marshall. Seriously, lay off that stuff.

  34. The 2018 boundaries are heavily gerrymandered in the SA Libs’ favour. If they can’t win with that, then they don’t deserve to.

    The 2014 boundaries similarly favoured the SA Libs (albeit not as heavily) but they still failed.

    It’s not a “Labor cheated” or “The system is rigged” nonsense. It’s “SA Libs are lazy and expect the system to be gamed for them and should, instead focus on trying to win over moderate Adelaide voters, rather than just reaffirming the conservative views of country voters.” – that’s the niche Xenophon is trying to snatch away btw.

  35. Steelydan

    SA buisness needs a shot in the arm big time, the pendulum needs to swing back the other way for a while. Give us two terms to fix it up for you then you can go on a spending spree again

    Like the accelerating budget mess the Liberals have brought to the federal level or the complete mess the Liberals made of WA in a mining boom.

    Get real.

  36. While many believe that Trump and his administration are on their last legs, kind of, and should be looking at political death, news on the US economy says otherwise. At least, this was in a report on BBC last night.
    All that money sloshing around seems to be having an effect and despite hurricanes and the like, unemployment is in the region of 4% and other indicators are bullish. Much of this is long term stuff and the improvements are really part of the work of the previous administration but, naturally, Trump and his merry lot are happy to take the credit. If it is true that “it is the economy stupid” then Trump, despite being the most divisive President in a long time could well last the remaining years of his his first term – and – have a second.

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