BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

The Coalition’s dire position weakens still further, as One Nation recovers from a recent dip.

Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

599 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 12
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  1. X is a threat to both Labor and Liberal in SA. Threat to Labor because if he gets the balance of power he is likely to support a Lib minority govt. Need for a change, too many scandals in public service, wants faster population growth etc. – usual anti govt stuff.

    But also a threat to Libs – will mainly take any seats from Libs and will attempt to control the agenda with a Lib govt. Not that they have much of an agenda except general pro-business, small govt stuff.

    Expect X to run candidates in most if not all seats – only way to maximise LC vote.

  2. **No we didn’t. Everybody’s been saying that.**
    They are just parroting me.

    OK. I may not have said it here first. But I sure aint going to scroll back through the last 24hrs of PB to find out.

  4. While not knowing SA politics at all well, I think it is fair to say the current regime is old and has been somewhat fortunate to have survived as long as it has. All other things being equal, one could readily expect a change of government. Goodness only knows what the impact of X will be now……anything from Premier to irritant leader of a minority party in the lower house. Either way, not much for Labor to look forward to even should they retain government.

  5. I think an ideal outcome for Xenophon is to overtake the Libs but hope that Labor still win, then he can spend the next 4 years as LOTO, positioning himself as the alternative premier to a 20-year-old government (compared to some random nobody gives a shit about from the Libs) and then sweep in a landslide in 2022.

  7. Is this the first time that Bludgerttack has Labor ahead of LNP in all states and territories under Turnbull? Queensland has switched.

  8. ‘ Goodness only knows what the impact of X will be now……anything from Premier to irritant leader of a minority party in the lower house. ‘

    Surely not winning a single seat should also be in the mix?

  9. South Australia consists of Adelaide (1.3 million, about 80% of the State’s population), several country towns with populations between 10k and 30k and a huge back yard. It looks like the conservative vote is concentrated in the 400,000 people outside of Adelaide, with the latter leaning significantly pro Labor.

    Take a simplified example with made-up numbers. If 55% of Adelaide preferences Labor above Liberal, with 75% in regions favouring Liberal, the statewide Labor 2PP would be about 49%. Without an actual gerrymander, it’s hard to see how a fair division into 47 single member electorates could allow a conservative majority. This is the reverse of the traditional ALP problem of Labor support being concentrated in poorer areas and industrial towns / suburbs.

    If I were a conservative in SA, I would be looking to implement proportional representation or multi-member electorates (like Tas).

  10. I’ll be very surprised if X doesn’t win a few lower house seats. There is a huge chance of a minority government, in which case my guess is X will back whichever side got the most votes.

  13. zoomster

    ‘ Goodness only knows what the impact of X will be now……anything from Premier to irritant leader of a minority party in the lower house. ‘

    Surely not winning a single seat should also be in the mix?

    One can but hope.

    Karma is a bitch.

  16. steve777

    It’s not the responsibility of the electorate to adapt to the Liberal Party – it’s the Liberal Party’s responsibility to adapt to the electorate. If they won’t do that, that is their problem.

    They already have a gerrymander favouring them – the ‘fairness’ clause.

    They are just lazy ideologues and pretend aristocrats.

    Note: I am open to a PR system but not just to do the Liberal Party’s work for them.

  19. frednk

    Steelydan

    SA buisness needs a shot in the arm big time, the pendulum needs to swing back the other way for a while. Give us two terms to fix it up for you then you can go on a spending spree again

    Like the accelerating budget mess the Liberals have brought to the federal level or the complete mess the Liberals made of WA in a mining boom.
    Get real.

    16 years count them were is this socialist Utopia. Health and education the two areas you bang on and on about and how the Labor party are the only ones that actually get these areas right. South Australia is lagging well behind.

    16 years is a generation in education, how the hell can you stuff that up. Most of the money was even given to you from other states and you still could not get it together. I dont even want to get into what happened in health and education in Tasmania what did you have there 24 years.
    Talk about getting real.

  20. Seems that its now being put out there that the Americans will “look” at regulation about these “bump stocks” that can effectively turn a semi into a fully auto weapon.

    Is it just me, or is this a pathetically inadequate response??

    Interesting article in the SMH though.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/peter-hartcher-20171006-gyvw2x.html

    Yup, pat on the back for ourselves arent we goood…….

    but the bit that interested me..

    “Two things I’ve been talking about in California,” Bleich says, “are the Australian model of reducing mass shootings and the value of universal voting to take extremism out of politics.”

  22. North Korea preparing long-range missile test: RIA cites Russian lawmaker

    By Reuters on Fri, Oct 6th, 2017 at 10:12 pm

    MOSCOW (Reuters) – North Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile which it believes can reach the west coast of the United States, a Russian lawmaker just returned from a visit to Pyongyang was quoted as saying on Friday.

    Anton Morozov, a member of the Russian lower house of parliament’s international affairs committee, and two other Russian lawmakers visited Pyongyang on Oct. 2-6, Russia’s RIA news agency reported.

    “They are preparing for new tests of a long-range missile. They even gave us mathematical calculations that they believe prove that their missile can hit the west coast of the United States,” RIA quoted Morozov as saying.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/10/06/north-korea-preparing-long-range-missile-test-ria-cites-russian-lawmaker.html

  25. Republican employees of Google and Facebook were secretly embedded inside Donald Trump campaign
    Report by Bill Palmer

    Brad Parscale, who ran the Trump campaign’s digital operations, has given an interview to Leslie Stahl of 60 Minutes which will air on Sunday October 8th on CBS but is already leaking out in pieces Parscale ended up making a rather shocking admission. He revealed that Republican employees of Facebook and Google were “embedded” in the Donald Trump campaign in order to help out with its digital advertising effort.

    based on Parscale’s new admission, Facebook and Google were sending Republican employees to help the Trump campaign – which strongly implies that these employees were trying to help the Trump campaign for partisan reasons. They weren’t just taking care of a customer; they wanted Trump in office.

    It should be pointed out that in the weeks since the Russian ad buy on Facebook surfaced, the media and a number of Republicans in Congress have tried to paint the social networks as the primary villains in the Russian election rigging, to divert attention from the Trump campaign’s criminal collusion. Brad Parscale may be throwing Facebook and Google under the bus as part of that effort. But it’s nonetheless a shocking admission – and one which may have been criminal in its own right.

  26. I’ve been to a financial planner who has told us we need to save more in super and a “wrap account”, it seems mainly so Mrs D can still go on holidays when she is in her nineties from what I can tell.
    So we are now saving money and have decided against quite a few discretionary purchases, and have our money tied up in shares/bonds/whatever.

    Doesn’t this just prop up the share market but cripple the rest of the economy because we aren’t spending as much money?

  29. Rational Leftist
    steve777

    It’s not the responsibility of the electorate to adapt to the Liberal Party – it’s the Liberal Party’s responsibility to adapt to the electorate. If they won’t do that, that is their problem.

    They already have a gerrymander favouring them – the ‘fairness’ clause.

    They are just lazy ideologues and pretend aristocrats.

    Note: I am open to a PR system but not just to do the Liberal Party’s work for them.

    Rational Lefist

    Even your name is an oxymoron so I should not be surprised with this particular statement.

    “They already have a gerrymander favouring them – the ‘fairness’ clause”.

    So the Labor party win with 47 % in the last election and your talking about a gerrymander favouring the liberals. OOOOOOOKAAAAAY.

    I understand your talking about the next next election and the party with the most votes winning Government scares you but we are a Democracy after all.

    SA labor attempted to block the new electoral boundaries in the Supreme Court of South Australia and lost the and now is looking at the high court of Australia. You are just going to have to win now without cheating, Sux I know.

    Might have to scroll through and see how many times you have mentioned Cinton winning the popular vote and was robbed. Bet you went on and on about Beasley winning the popular vote as well actually I am certain of it.

  30. If the High Court accepts Brandis’ argument they should all be loaded on a Greyhound Bus and run out of Canberra. But does this mean that George hasn’t even tried to argue it was reasonable for Barnyard/Nash NOT to have realised they might be dual nationals? That would seem a pretty big concession to me.

  31. Might have to scroll through and see how many times you have mentioned Cinton winning the popular vote and was robbed. Bet you went on and on about Beasley winning the popular vote as well actually I am certain of it.

    Do it – I like to watch a straw man argument collapse.

    Not going to bother with the rest of your unhinged rant.

  34. Diog

    Yes, a lot of the ‘what you’ll need in your super when you retire’ calculations seem to be assuming I’m going to want more income than I get at the moment!

  35. So the Labor party win with 47 % in the last election and your talking about a gerrymander favouring the liberals.

    Certainly mathematically possible. Single member electorates can always lead to ‘unfair’ results if the vote for one or other side is geographically concentrated.

  38. Ctari

    Yesterday you wondered what Saudi “king” was doing in Russia.

    This was one of the items on my list

    Russia Signs $3 Billion Arms Deal With Saudi Arabia

  39. Is the sharing proportionate? One answer is to look at experience in India, where the Supreme Court has comprehensively damned that nation’s ambitious Aadhaar biometric scheme, which was meant to solve security, welfare and other problems.

    The Court – consistent with decisions in other parts of the world – condemned the scheme as grossly disproportionate: a disregard of privacy and of the dignity of every citizen.

    Is sharing likely to result in harms, particularly as the biometric network grows and grows? The answer again is yes. One harm, disregarded by our opportunistic politicians, is that all Australians and all visitors will be regarded as suspects.

    Much of the data for matching will be muddy – some street cameras, for example, are fine resting places for pigeons – and of little value.

    As with the mandatory metadata retention scheme, the more data (and more cameras) we have the bigger trove of indelible information for hackers. Do not expect the OAIC or weak state privacy watchdogs (which in some jurisdictions do not exist) to come to the rescue.

    As a society, we should demand meaningful consultation about official schemes that erode our rights. We should engage in critical thinking rather than relying on headlines that reflect political opportunism and institutional self-interest.

    The incoherent explanation and clarifications should concern everyone, irrespective of whether they have chosen to be on Facebook – and even if they have nothing to hide and will never be mistaken for someone else.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-national-facial-recognition-database-will-not-make-us-safer,10793


  43. Steelydan
    ….
    16 years count them; were is this socialist Utopia.

    Your the person that thinks Labor and Liberal and about left and right; workers and business. It’s not; it’s now about where you find competent administration. Once upon a time the liberal may have lacked imagination but at least they could be trusted to run the place while labor renewed. Now to vote the Liberals in is to court disaster.

    Health and education the two areas you bang on and on about and how the Labor party are the only ones that actually get these areas right. South Australia is lagging well behind.

    The trouble is the Liberals can turn a mess into a disaster; and that is real problem you can no longer turf out a labor government without turning a bad situation worse.

    16 years is a generation in education, how the hell can you stuff that up. Most of the money was even given to you from other states and you still could not get it together.

    I dont even want to get into what happened in health and education in Tasmania what did you have there 24 years.
    Talk about getting real.

    In Tasmania the Liberals have been in power now for 3 years; I don’t follow Tasmania politics but let me guess; Liberals raiding treasury; stuffing it up; blaming Labor; and the polls indicate the incompetent twits will get turfed out next election.

  44. jenauthor @ #57 Saturday, October 7th, 2017 – 7:14 am

    In corner two, you have progressive/liberals (ie ALP, Democrats, centre-left rather than completely left – though those on the conservative side like to tar this group as commies/socialists).

    Whilst I agree with the rest of your assessment, the US Democrats are only centre-left by American standards. By the standards of everywhere else they’re a centre-right party, comparable to Angela Merkel’s CDU party in Germany. The only reason they appear “left” is because the Republicans have moved way off centre into far-right whackaloon territory.

  45. http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2400.htm

    “A stunning new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that based on documented evidence developed with the aid of both Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Israel’s Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations (MOSSAD), the identity of the person named responsible for the “Pyramid Sacrifice” ritualistic massacre in Las Vegas, named Stephen Paddock, has established his being an arms smuggling pilot employed by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)—with further evidence being developed that the weapons and ammunition used in this massacre were likely stolen from an Israeli arms depot sometime during the past fortnight. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]”

  48. Lizzie
    I have no sympathy for Turncoat.He has $200 million in his bank account and chooses to do a job he doesnt have to do.It is entirely up to him.

  49. He has committed the most economic reckless act on this country with his joke of an NBN which will put our country back generations in the future.

  50. cupidstunt

    No, no sympathy at all. He has no judgement and no care for the nation, in spite of all his “keep you safe” nonsense.

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