The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for FiftyAcres is more conventional than its previous efforts in that the major parties’ share of the primary vote has increased, with Labor gaining three points to 35% without biting into the Coalition’s 34%. Of the others, the Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is steady on 9%, the Nick Xenophon Team is down one to 3%, “Christian parties” are steady on 3%, Katter’s Australian Party is steady on 1%, and others are down two to 3%. Despite Labor’s improvement on the primary vote, two-party preferred is unchanged at 50-50 due to weaker respondent-allocated preference flows to Labor, of 67% from Greens voters, 22% from One Nation voters and 50% from the rest. With preference flows more like last year’s election, at which Labor got 82% of Greens preferences and 49% of everybody else’s, Labor would lead 54-46.
Also in the poll:
• Malcolm Turnbull has a 37-29 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, compared with 34-27 last time. A high “not sure” result has been a feature of the pollster’s form in this area.
• Head-to-head questions on leadership attributes found Bill Shorten leading Malcolm Turnbull 30-17 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians; Turnbull leading 28-20 on being a strong leader; and Shorten leading 24-22 on sticking to what he believes in. For a lot more of this sort of thing, I had a paywalled article on Crikey which placed the detailed leadership attributes polling of Essential Research into broader perspective.
• Support for same-sex marriage was at at 59%, with 33% opposed. Eighty per cent rated themselves likely participants in the postal survey compared with 13% for unlikely, but there are no breakdowns for the yes and no camps.
• Sixty-six per cent favoured the proposition that “Australia should move towards more alternative energy source (e.g. wind or solar)” over an alternative, that “Australia should continue to use coal-fired power stations”.
• Forty-three per cent of respondents thought it likely a country would be attacked with a nuclear weapon during their lifetime, compared with 44% for unlikely.
Elsewhere:
• Progressive think thank the Australia Institute has polled the Hunter region seats of Hunter and Shortland, to gauge the impact of AGL’s decision to close the locally situated Liddell coal-fired power station. On two-party preferred, Labor holds respective leads of 60-40 and 58-42, which compare with 62.5-37.5 and 59.9-40.1 at the last election. The other story is that the primary votes show the One Nation well into double digits in both seats. After including results of the follow-up prompt for the undecided, primary votes in Hunter are Labor 44.1% (51.8% at the election), Nationals 21.9% (26.3%), Greens 7.3% (7.1%) and One Nation 15.8%. In Shortland, the results are Labor 44.8% (51.2%), Liberal 26.5% (35.2%), Greens 7.8% (9.5%) and One Nation 14.3%. Despite everything, the poll finds more support than oppose AGL’s decision, and that renewables are heavily favoured over coal. The polls were conducted by ReachTEL on Friday and Saturday nights, from respective samples of 714 and 643. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.
• Sky News reports that polling conducted by the “no” campaign has support for yes down over the first ten days of the campaign from 67% to 60%, although there’s no insight into how this was conducted or by whom.
The guy who attacked Abbott said nothing to do with SSM, but the media went with the Abbott lie…
swamprat, the ABC news just after PM said that the person responsible says that it had nothing to do with SSM.
CC
Worth repeating
Cud chewer
[This isn’t just the Christian religion. Giving gay people the respect inherent in legal marriage is just one step towards breaking homophobia directed towards my young friend and others like him by other faiths and cultures.]
Agreed
Gorkay
“As expected this survey is turning into a farce. ”
———-
I wish the ALP would get a spine and de-legitimise this farcical survey and undermine it.
But the ALP and courage and principle are a long time in the past.
The ALP is like a battered victim/partner in a violent relationship. It is always ready to agree and excuse the bully.
The LNP has just to say “security” and the ALP will help roll out the barbed wire, or build the wall.
Sky must be feeling pretty fn stupid having that idiot Paul Murray check Malcolm Roberts paperwork on national TV and find it in order.
Having idiots like Paul Murray explain why I couldn’t be bothered with the (dis)service.
FrBower: #Auspol @TonyAbbottMHR to equate your alleged attacker with #Voteyes is an act of violence in itself abc.net.au/news/2017-09-2… via @ABCNews
cud chewer @ #1596 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 7:11 pm
In mitigation, I appear to have transmitted agnosticism and progressive politics but the Floreat Pica* gene didn’t penetrate at all. Two out of three ain’t bad.
* Yes, yes, we know, it’s rubbish Latin. Pfft.
So the guy who head-butted Abbott is just some random idiot with an axe to grind, nothing to do with the Yes campaign. Are we certain it isn’t a No campaigner taking one for the team?
swamprat
It’s sort of surreal. I have local ABC radio on during the day over the week as I quite enjoy a lot of the presenters. Then there are the news spots and updates which can often bear little resemblance to what comes as breaking news, such as what Astro Labe had to say.
It’s like this creaking, groaning effort to try and avoid having to face reality versus the reality that if they put a foot wrong in terms of their political and organisational masters, they’ll no longer have a job. For instance, it would be widely known what happened to the journo who was critical of the NBN under Turnbull.
Sections of the ABC seem more cowed that others.
BTW. Billbowe was on The World Today today. Didn’t catch it as was doing something else.
William, when you’re going to do a psephy number on national radio, give us a heads up, yeah?
reedfleming: Everyone at the pub was checking how many mutual friends they had with the guy who headbutted Tony Abbott.
Fess
Dan G linked video interview of this guy. Doubt he is an agent provocateur
lanesainty: The High Court will hand down its judgments in the postal survey challenge next Thursday — we get to find out WHY it decided the way it did.
Mark Knight in court with Private Citizen Roberts:
vic:
Thanks. Haven’t seen the video or news yet.
monica
Yes, i understand. I have no idea of the pressure that ABC staff are under.
I suppose there is fat chance of the ALP, if it should get into government, doing anything to restore and protect the quality of public broadcasting
Very true.
@swamprat
ALP did the right thing by coming in support of a yes vote. If they could block the postal survey they could but they can’t. As far as I know Rainbow Labor has been campaigning for a while to ensure a yes vote.
I doubt a boycott would have worked and has it’s own dangers. Nothing stopping LNP from claiming they had their chance to vote yes, they didn’t. Issue closed.
Even if the vote fails with a no, next time Labor is in charge SSM will be legalized. I know you won’t thank them for it, probably something about Gillard not legalising it in 2012 blah blah
Looks like you have swallowed LNP line “it’s Labor’s fault”. Well guess what, ALP isn’t in government for last 4 years.
swamp
Fairly bleak view there IMO.
The ALP hardly embraced the postal survey. Given they couldn’t stop it the only option was to encourage a yes vote.
confessions @ #1606 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 5:23 pm
By the look of him, he appears to be an alt-lifestyler, so it is highly unlikely he is a fan of the conservative side of politics. He claims to an “anarchist”. Make of that what you will.
Fess
The video is linked a few posts below
monica:
I know exactly what you mean.
AM and the news are particularly bad, but in Sydney Wendy Harmer still has a bit of fire, and the contrast is so obvious.
It’s interesting to consider how the Hobart incident will play out for SSM.
The “no” crowd (including Abbott, Abetz and Shelton and were initially ecstatic that the “yes” case would suffer a backlash.
Now that the alleged offender says it was nothing to do with SSM and that it was all about Abbott personally, the “no” crowd would be a bit less happy.
Furthermore, given the public unpopularity of Abbott, could it be that having Abbott constantly in the news is a distinct negative for the “no” case?
Gorkay
“Looks like you have swallowed LNP line “it’s Labor’s fault”. Well guess what, ALP isn’t in government for last 4 years.”
——–
What a stupid and dishonest comment!
I suggest you embody the problem that is the modern and little loved ALP.
This sums it up for me.
Labor can make its promise because the Greens and likely other Senators will support.
senthorun: You can create a survey on our rights.
You can steal a survey on our rights.
But, you cannot take away our claim for equality.
#VoteYES
I don’t think Labor could have done any more than it and its allies the unions are doing.
Dan G:
Found the Ch7 video. Yeesh what can one say?!
Last time ALP were in power they increased funding for the ABC. But the ALP allows the independent broadcaster to be … well independent. Unlike the Libs who keep pushing to morph it into a state broadcaster – something akin to nth Korea’s.
ALP allowed whatever (ridiculously bad) satire to produce whatever it wanted to despite the nastiness aimed at Gillard, for instance. Nor did ALP try to interfere in Q&A or demand apologies.
Fess
LOL. It takes all kinds.
Cory Bernadi not happy with being the countries best progressive fund raiser. 😆
At least Brandis was right for once (and before the fellow in Hobart was interviewed):
@Swamprat
Sorry but your claim that this survey farce is ALP’s fault because they didn’t boycott is idiotic. A boycott would have served right into Turnbull’s hands and quite possibly wouldn’t have worked.
Well, no-one can say it hasn’t been an interesting couple of days in Australia.
Good news keeps coming
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-41351159
A bit of trivia. This morning the click bait headline in the Canbera Times referred to Kim calling Trump a dotard*.
During the Howard era the transport and regional areas of the Commonwealth were organised into the Department of Transport and Regional Development. Then somebody noted that its acronym was DOTARD.
Shortly after it was renamed the Department of Transport and Regional Services.
Gorkay
I did not say it is the ALP’s fault.
I have said that the ALP has legitimised it as they do to so many things the LNXP does.
I believe that the ALP should de-legitimise it. It is appalling that gays should have their rights subject to a farcical and unscientific survey.
I hope the ALP agrees with my proposal that politicians’ wages and privileges should be made subject to a voluntory survey.
I know the Lib/Nat/Lab agree with “democracy” and will support it!!!
Swamp
Labor is doing what the Yes campaign wants.
This is why I don’t fault Labor in the course they have taken.
If the Yes campaign had gone for a boycott Labor and the Greens as well as some LNP members would have too.
swamprat
…
I suggest you embody the problem that is the modern and little loved ALP.
The little loved ALP will probable form the next government’ the chances of the Greens doing so; about zero.
guytaur
“Labor is dosing what the Yes campaign wants.”
———
I am sure it is doing what the gay self-selected elite who run some bodies are saying should be done.
Good for Labour.
If true, I have a different opinion from both Labour/Labor and the Gay Political Elite.
Why on earth would anyone choose to sit out the postal survey unless you genuinely couldn’t give a stuff about SSM? If you want to see marriage equality in this country, you’ve been given your chance to have your say and make your vote count. Use it.
Yes side folk sitting out only benefits the No side.
The HC has proved that Roberts met his intellectual peer in Paul Murray at Sky News.
frednk
“The little loved ALP will probable form the next government’ the chances of the Greens doing so; about zero.”
—–
Possibly, the polls are not much above 50:50 and the LNXP has shown itself to out politic Labor at least 2:1, so i would not be too cocky.
There are many months for a “children overboard”, tampa or whatever which will knock the ALP stupid.
What an insult to imply i would vote for the wanky liberal bourgeoise greens. I did vote green sometimes when it stood for environmental matters but it is just another big growth big population party not much different from the Libs and Labs; just a little more wanky.
@SWAMPRAT
Problem with your idea is that for most people this is not a big issue. This is not something that changes votes and governments. Most people don’t really care or don’t feel strongly about it. For Labor to boycott/hinder/delegitimise the issue is fraught with risks.
My first reaction was to boycott this survey but after reading Kevin Bonham’s analysis it was clear that this is too risky for little reward.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/electoral-process-but-not-as-we-know-it.html#more
Confessions:
“if you want to see marriage equality in this country, you’ve been given your chance to have your say and make your vote count. Use it.”
——-
What absolute nonsense.
1. It is NOT a vote, it is a voluntory unscientific survey.
2. Not one MP LIb Nat Lab is in any way bound to follow the results of this unscientific survey.
3. How appalling that you consider this homophobic exercise is equivalent to: ” you’ve been given your chance”.
You can stuff your bigotted heterosexist views up your arse Confessions.
I can just imagine swamprat tapping out his bilious anti everyone but the Scottish Socialist Party invective in his Y Fronts and Docs, Irn Bru in hand. : )
Labor people are so far right these days it’s bloody pointless.
Not it isn’t. You think if the postal vote comes back with a majority No vote that the coalition and opponents of marriage equality won’t declare the people have decided and the issue is therefore off the table for the foreseeable future?
We have a chance to deliver a Yes vote for SSM. That sends a clear message to the govt that the voters want to see marriage equality.
Yeah ‘the little loved ALP’, who, at the only polls that count, ie elections, just took over a swag of Local Councils in NSW.
Go Crows!
Puffy,
All I can see on the TV is the Rugby League on 9 and Better Homes and Gardens on Channel 7!
C@tomomma
“I can just imagine swamprat tapping out his bilious anti everyone but the Scottish Socialist Party invective in his Y Fronts and Docs, Irn Bru in hand.”
———-
Bad luck, latests polls from Scotland has the three right wing yoon parties not doing so well:
Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Panelbase) :
SNP 41% (+4)
Conservatives 27% (-2)
Labour 24% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Greens 2% (+2)
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com.au/2017/09/sensational-poll-suggests-snp-would.html
Some Blue and Red Tory MPs may have only one term!!!!